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Old August 17th, 2016, 06:25 AM   #7501
isaidso
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheIllinoisan View Post
The poster you quoted mentioned the city core, not the entire city. New York and Chicago possess the first and second largest central business districts in the world, respectively.
New York's might be largest but I'd be surprised if Chicago's was #2. Globally a number of other cities have more square feet of office space. Chicago isn't even 2nd in the US, Washington is.

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Originally Posted by TheIllinoisan View Post
And in speaking of Chicago and Toronto, Chicago has a significantly larger and denser central business district than Toronto. And until Toronto builds tens of millions more square feet of office space, the Chicago Loop will continue to remain much larger than any business district in Toronto.
I'd go have a closer look. There's currently 6.9 million square feet of office space under construction in Toronto; 4.2 million of it downtown. With the lowest office vacancy rate in north America a ton more is coming down the pipe.
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Old August 17th, 2016, 07:39 AM   #7502
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheIllinoisan View Post
The poster you quoted mentioned the city core, not the entire city. New York and Chicago possess the first and second largest central business districts in the world, respectively. Tokyo and Seoul are denser than New York when you compare the entire cities, but the central business district of New York, during the work week when millions of people are occupying the office buildings, is the most densely populated piece of land in the entire world. And in speaking of Chicago and Toronto, Chicago has a significantly larger and denser central business district than Toronto. And until Toronto builds tens of millions more square feet of office space, the Chicago Loop will continue to remain much larger than any business district in Toronto.
And the key problem with this assumption is projecting the past 5 years to be the next 5. Chicago in 2017-2022 will have a lot more construction than it did from 2012-2017. Toronto's housing bubble, meanwhile, has a high risk of popping (same with Vancouver). Let's remember, in the past year Chicago's added 60,000 jobs. In the past month alone, Ontario has lost 36,000 (with the overwhelming majority in the Toronto "CSA"). Toronto can't prop up the bubble when its province is losing 36,000 jobs a month, its country lost 71,000 full-time jobs last month, the Canadian dollar is weak, manufacturing is down, oil prices are low, and housing affordability is increasingly considered a national crisis.

Chicago's no utopia. It has high crime, horrible NIMBYs like Friends of the Parking Lot, political corruption, population decline (though in its poorer areas) and is seen as less dynamic than the other Big 5 cities of LA, NYC, DC and SF. The good thing for Chicago, however, is that construction there is organic and is not based on the availability of low interest rates or high household debt, as in Toronto.

Montreal and Edmonton have much more stable futures right now than Toronto and Vancouver. I wouldn't be surprised to see either of the former gain tons of jobs and skyscrapers. And it's largely for affordability reasons.

I think affordability is a double-edged sword. The second the tech boom ends, housing values in San Francisco are going to collapse. And it will be nasty for all those Millennials who bought last year thinking prices would only rise. I'm very bearish on rapid growth markets like San Francisco, Toronto, Vancouver, and Seattle. History shows that the bust is often worse than the boom. Remember that the best years of Japan were the late 1980s. And Japan's had 2 lost decades ever since. There's some forumers who think markets only trend upwards. Indeed, those who illogically say, "The Bubble hasn't popped yet so obviously it never will!" are clearly going to have egg on their face.

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Old August 17th, 2016, 08:34 AM   #7503
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Sound like wishful thinking to me. You are cherry picking select statistics that are meaningless on their own. Eg."In the past month alone, Ontario has lost 36,000 (with the overwhelming majority in the Toronto "CSA")." Statistics Canada monthly job figures are well known to bounce up and down like crazy from month to month. The province could lose 36,000 one month and gain 40.000 the next because the methods used for the statistic are far from exact. You then go on to merrily extrapolate that Ontario is losing 36,000 jobs a month which is complete rubbish. Ontario's population, labour force and employment all grew from 2015 to 2016, and unemployment fell.
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...fss01b-eng.htm
Ont.
Population 11,515.2 11,531.4 16.2 141.0 0.1 1.2
Labour force 7,480.4 7,447.0 -33.4 21.2 -0.4 0.3
Employment 7,002.7 6,966.6 -36.1 23.9 -0.5 0.3
Unemployment 477.8 480.3 2.5 -2.8 0.5 -0.6

And what happens in Toronto is not directly tied to what happens across the province.
By the way, people on SSC have been predicting a market collapse in Toronto since I joined here in 2005. And every one of the financial pychics has been bearish, and has spoken with confident authority that the market was on a verge of collapse. There has been so much egg on so many faces over the past 11 years ( a veritable sea of omelette masks, if you will) that I really wouldn't want to get into the business of betting money on such things. If you are thinking that Montreal is going to explode with office and residential space simply because it is cheaper there, then I advise you get bearish on Detroit, and put all your money there because using the same logic it could boom any day now.


Chicago has twice the amount of office space that Toronto does. Toronto is not going to eclipse that any time soon. Clearly geoking66 was referring to population growth, not office space. TheIllinoisan turned the topic to office space. I don't even want to get into any haggle about what cities around the world have the densest downtowns because I think what happens in London, Paris or Tokyo has nothing to do with a thread about North American skylines.

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Old August 18th, 2016, 03:21 AM   #7504
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taller, Better View Post
So? It's his list of his favourite skylines in North America, which is what this thread is about. You've repeatedly listed London as your favourite European skyline loads of times in other threads.
What's the difference? Can you explain what you mean?

1. Chicago over NYC is mental .. Homerism is cool but needs to be pointed out .


2. London IS the best and BIGGEST city in Europe . ... That's just a fact .. Me trying to avoid putting London at the top of a Euro list is like YOU trying to avoid putting NYC at the top of a North American list ...
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Old August 18th, 2016, 03:26 AM   #7505
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Philly is under rated ..


Thanks for posting.
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Old August 18th, 2016, 04:15 AM   #7506
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taller, Better View Post
Sound like wishful thinking to me. You are cherry picking select statistics that are meaningless on their own. Eg."In the past month alone, Ontario has lost 36,000 (with the overwhelming majority in the Toronto "CSA")." Statistics Canada monthly job figures are well known to bounce up and down like crazy from month to month. The province could lose 36,000 one month and gain 40.000 the next because the methods used for the statistic are far from exact. You then go on to merrily extrapolate that Ontario is losing 36,000 jobs a month which is complete rubbish. Ontario's population, labour force and employment all grew from 2015 to 2016, and unemployment fell.
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...fss01b-eng.htm
Ont.
Population 11,515.2 11,531.4 16.2 141.0 0.1 1.2
Labour force 7,480.4 7,447.0 -33.4 21.2 -0.4 0.3
Employment 7,002.7 6,966.6 -36.1 23.9 -0.5 0.3
Unemployment 477.8 480.3 2.5 -2.8 0.5 -0.6

And what happens in Toronto is not directly tied to what happens across the province.
By the way, people on SSC have been predicting a market collapse in Toronto since I joined here in 2005. And every one of the financial pychics has been bearish, and has spoken with confident authority that the market was on a verge of collapse. There has been so much egg on so many faces over the past 11 years ( a veritable sea of omelette masks, if you will) that I really wouldn't want to get into the business of betting money on such things. If you are thinking that Montreal is going to explode with office and residential space simply because it is cheaper there, then I advise you get bearish on Detroit, and put all your money there because using the same logic it could boom any day now.


Chicago has twice the amount of office space that Toronto does. Toronto is not going to eclipse that any time soon. Clearly geoking66 was referring to population growth, not office space. TheIllinoisan turned the topic to office space. I don't even want to get into any haggle about what cities around the world have the densest downtowns because I think what happens in London, Paris or Tokyo has nothing to do with a thread about North American skylines.

Your link shows Ontario losing 36,100 jobs in the past month. The labour force also fell by 33,400. The participation rate dropped by 0.4% and employment went down by 0.4%. Those are all troubling numbers.

I do recommend this article: http://www.torontosun.com/2016/08/16...n-beat-ontario

Michigan's actually booming at the moment. Then again, Detroit's suburbs have always done better than Detroit city proper. And Grand Rapids, the #2 city is actually rapidly growing.

I should add: I don't think skyscraper construction is indicative of economic health. Places like Texas and California are booming while places like New York or Illinois are struggling. Yet Chicago and New York are gaining way more skyscrapers than Houston or Dallas or LA or SF. So Toronto getting tons of skyscrapers is not indicative of economic health. The fundamentals of Ontario is that the province has the highest government debt load per capita in North America. It also has incredibly high household debt. If you believe that's a recipe for continued success, all the power to you. But I don't think double digit home price increases, coupled with job losses and high debt, is a good sign.

Canada has gained 12,400 jobs so far in 2016: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle31286881/. That is not a sign of economic health. And Toronto, as the Alpha city of Canada, will not be able to extricate itself from the country it lies in.

Now, of course people have been predicting the bubble bursting. There's always some predicting the bubble bursting. But now you have Stephen Poloz, the Bank of Canada and multiple media firms in Canada sounding the warning lights.

I think Quebec definitely has a bright future. Steady growth for decades and still relatively affordable, not to mention Montreal and Quebec City are huge tourist magnets for Americans (especially now with the cheap Loonie).
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Old August 18th, 2016, 04:42 AM   #7507
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa View Post
Your link shows Ontario losing 36,100 jobs in the past month. The labour force also fell by 33,400. The participation rate dropped by 0.4% and employment went down by 0.4%. Those are all troubling numbers.
I think you must have missed the part where he explained why looking at single months has little relevance in the big picture. Can you explain why this single month is "troubling" when he explained so clearly how month over month numbers commonly fluctuate?
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Old August 18th, 2016, 08:30 AM   #7508
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Ottawa


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Old August 18th, 2016, 08:37 AM   #7509
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Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse View Post
I think you must have missed the part where he explained why looking at single months has little relevance in the big picture. Can you explain why this single month is "troubling" when he explained so clearly how month over month numbers commonly fluctuate?
I explained how it works so he can take it or leave it. I'm not going to drag it out further as it will just continue to derail the thread.


Love that photo of Quebec City!
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Old August 18th, 2016, 10:05 AM   #7510
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Ottawa and Quebec City are both stunningly beautiful!

Dallas


Dallas Skyline
by TonyJ99, on Flickr
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Old August 18th, 2016, 10:10 AM   #7511
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Jersey City


Jersey City - From the ferry to Staten Island
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Old August 18th, 2016, 10:18 AM   #7512
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Baltimore



Baltimore
by frasbob, on Flickr
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Old August 18th, 2016, 10:27 AM   #7513
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Chicago


From above #chicago #vsco #aerialphotography #vscofilm
by Shawn Roller, on Flickr
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Old August 18th, 2016, 10:30 AM   #7514
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Houston


#htown #houston #skyline #summernights #lightpainting #shutterspeed #longexposure #50mm #teamcanon
by rbarrios1112, on Flickr
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Old August 18th, 2016, 10:32 AM   #7515
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San Diego


San Diego Sunrise
by Beau Rogers, on Flickr
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Old August 18th, 2016, 10:37 AM   #7516
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Seattle



Seattle Sunset with Mount Rainer [5742x3078] [OC]
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Old August 18th, 2016, 10:41 AM   #7517
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Anchorage


Anchorage Skyline
by Jeremy Mularella, on Flickr
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Old August 19th, 2016, 06:13 AM   #7518
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Thanks for showing Anchorage... we do not see much of this city on this thread
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Old August 19th, 2016, 06:14 AM   #7519
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Panama City, Panama


Panama Papers by f. ermert, on Flickr
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Old August 19th, 2016, 06:49 AM   #7520
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taller, Better View Post
Sound like wishful thinking to me. You are cherry picking select statistics that are meaningless on their own.

That's what Manitopiaa does though. 20,800 Alberta job losses in 1 month due to the shut down of the oil sands during the wild fire suddenly becomes a Manitopiaa headline 'Alberta losing 21,000 jobs monthly!'

He even had a post that argued that the Greater Golden Horseshoe was an invention that Torontonians have pounced on so that we can pump our chests and proclaim we're on the verge of becoming a mega city. He's obsessed with Canada ....but with the single minded goal of knocking it down a peg or 2.

I've tried many times to have a constructive dialogue with him but he's not interested in the facts. I stopped taking him seriously a long time ago.
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