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Old May 22nd, 2017, 01:16 PM   #1
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On the possible death of internal combustion by 2030????

First of all I am sceptical that this will come to pass so soon and am inclined to add 10 years to every forecast in the paper ....but it will come to pass some time.

Stanford Lecturer Tony Seba says that we will switch heavily to Autonomous driving EVs by 2022 and that petrol and diesel engines will be legacy products by 2025 in effect with none available by 2030.

What is not mentioned in this report is that once Autonomous EVs hit around 30% of new vehicles then the remaining 70% will become increasingly and then extremely difficult to insure and that only persons with impeccable driving histories will be able to insure a non Autonomous vehicle. That will sweep the rest of the fleet off the road in fairly short order.


We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transportas-a-service” (TaaS).

The TaaS disruption will have enormous implications
across the transportation and oil industries, decimating entire portions
of their value chains, causing oil demand and prices to plummet, and
destroying trillions of dollars in investor value — but also creating trillions of
dollars in new business opportunities, consumer surplus and GDP growth.

The disruption will be driven by economics. Using TaaS, the average
American family will save more than $5,600 per year in transportation costs,
equivalent to a wage raise of 10%. This will keep an additional $1 trillion
per year in Americans’ pockets by 2030, potentially generating the largest
infusion of consumer spending in history.
One tipping point has already been reached, IE that the car battery might last longer than the average car. This is using existing battery technology not some 'breathrough' tech that is rare in the wild.

More vehicle lifetime miles, lower operating costs
Vehicle lifetime miles. Tesla’s first vehicle (Tesla S) is now 20 months old and has clocked over 280,000 miles. It reached 200,000 miles with only 6-7% battery degradation
I will say that Sebas paper (linked above) is causing massive conniptions at the highest levels already and it is only just released. It will clearly inform projections of highway capacity requirements globally from now on.

However I think personally that more road space will be required in cities as the EVs will maintain a greater distance from each other than drivers currently do and will adapt badly to sensor driven separations in bad weather.

And most of the worlds cars are in countries with long crap winters.

I also think that S2 roads are inadequate for any proper Autonomy and that 2+2 minima are required as there will always be people in a hurry and people not in a hurry in any given roadspace full of Autonomous EVs.

Better build those 2+2 roads while diesel is still cheap then. If fact if Seba is right then the perfect time to build a global shedload of high capacity roads will be in the 2020s as cheap diesel is dumped on the market.

Last edited by sponge_bob; May 22nd, 2017 at 01:28 PM.
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Old May 22nd, 2017, 03:57 PM   #2
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There is quite some debate whether Level 5 autonomous vehicles will enter the market so soon. Experts say that Level 4-5 autonomous vehicles are exponentially more complex to develop than current level of autonomous vehicles. It is not a linear development from level 1 to 5.

We're not just talking about some autonomous driving in relatively controlled environments like freeways and divided highways, but on every road and street, no matter how difficult, and in any weather condition thinkable. This is not just simply the next step in autonomous driving. The final step of fully autonomous driving might take much longer to achieve than many people think. You read stories about such vehicles entering the market on a large scale in the late 2020s, but also in the 2070s.

It also sounds premature to name specific dates when fossil fuel cars will become obsolete while there is currently not a single electric vehicle on the market that has the same specifications as internal combustion engine vehicles in terms of price, range and charging time.

The current owners of electric vehicles are by no means representative for the average driver. In the Netherlands 90% of cars are privately owned but only 5% of PHEV and EV are privately owned for example.
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Old May 22nd, 2017, 04:11 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
The current owners of electric vehicles are by no means representative for the average driver. In the Netherlands 90% of cars are privately owned but only 5% of PHEV and EV are privately owned for example.
That is because mass market EV sellers like Nissan realised early on that people would lease EVs but not buy them outright( in case the battery pack dies which is a €10k replacement part on its own) .

Everyone I personally know with a Nissan Leaf has leased it, when their lease is up they think they will get another one in its place. All have a privately owned diesel as well for long range tasks.

Nissan have part modularised their latest batteries, in fairness, in response to the failure anxiety. They also offer a 5 year drivetrain/battery warranty with only 100k KMs of distance covered and 3 years or 200k KMs on the rest of the car. How confusing. Your most expensive part has the lowest warranty for many use cases.

By around 200k kilometers I would expect a Nissan Leaf Battery to lose 33% of its capacity when new. Tesla are claiming they went much further than that, charged more often and lost less than 10% of the new capacity in so doing.

But the ownership model for EVs is fundamentally different right now and the assumption in the paper is that EVs will be like dial a cars rather than owned in future. I do not disagree with that assumption.

Last edited by sponge_bob; May 22nd, 2017 at 04:20 PM.
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