hongkong's future:will shanghai take his position out?

[shibuya_suki]

any opinion?

[YangtzeSea]

1. The population of Shanghai is 2 times of that of Hong Kong.

2. The GDP of Shanghai (2004) is 1/2 of Hong Kong (2004). But according to PPP, maybe Shanghai has surpassed HK. I'm not sure about that.

3. Shanghai do be catching up. And Hong Kong do be relatively lagged, just like most cities in the world.

4. Will Shanghai surpass Hong Kong in the future? Maybe I have to say yes. But It will take more than 10-15 years, and HongKong will still be more wealthy/developed than Shanghai in a long time. You know, Shanghai is a part of China economically and have to pay tax to central government while HK is economically independent.

[V80]

may be...

[Sexas]

why peoople always ask pointless question like New York and Chicago which one is better, London and Paris which one have more power or Hong Kong and Shanghai who will surpass who... You never see people ask useful question like - 'What can Hong Kong do/help to make Shanghai grow faster', or 'What can Shanghai and Hong Kong do to make both cities growing on the same time but not hurting each other.'

need my morning coffee...

[carry_a_torch]

not 2 times population,maybe nealy 3 times,shanghai has about 18 million while HK has about 6.5million.
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Originally Posted by YangtzeSea

1. The population of Shanghai is 2 times of that of Hong Kong.

2. The GDP of Shanghai (2004) is 1/2 of Hong Kong (2004). But according to PPP, maybe Shanghai has surpassed HK. I'm not sure about that.

3. Shanghai do be catching up. And Hong Kong do be relatively lagged, just like most cities in the world.

4. Will Shanghai surpass Hong Kong in the future? Maybe I have to say yes. But It will take more than 10-15 years, and HongKong will still be more wealthy/developed than Shanghai in a long time. You know, Shanghai is a part of China economically and have to pay tax to central government while HK is economically independent.

[YangtzeSea]

Originally Posted by carry_a_torch

not 2 times population,maybe nealy 3 times,shanghai has about 18 million while HK has about 6.5million.
\

The population of Hong Kong is 7-8 million. And the city population of Shanghai is 14 million (there're 4 million people live in the suburb which can't actually be called Shanghainese and they really contribute little. We shouldn't compare Hong Kong with "Shanghai Province", right?)

[carry_a_torch]

Originally Posted by YangtzeSea

The population of Hong Kong is 7-8 million. And the city population of Shanghai is 14 million (there're 4 million people live in the suburb which can't actually be called Shanghainese and they really contribute little. We shouldn't compare Hong Kong with "Shanghai Province", right?)

No,they contribute alot,many factories are in the surburb.

[hkskyline]

Population doesn't necessarily play a very important role. Although consumerism is a major part of the local economy from a macroeconomics perspective, Hong Kong's advantage is far beyond that. China's capital controls is a major problem for international business activities. The Hong Kong Dollar is fully convertible and trades internationally, which is a major benefit for foreign investors. Similarly, Hong Kong's stock market is far more internationalized and funds can come in and out easily.

It will take some time before the mainland's foreign exchange, capital markets, and judicial systems reach Hong Kong's level. Until then, Hong Kong will still maintain a significant competitive advantage. That being said, I still see a dual role for the two cities. Hong Kong will be the primary international gateway while Shanghai will be a domestic hub for China.

[kamloon]

Tokyo have the GDP equal to New York plus London, so does Tokyo have the power equal to New York plus London, Tokyo may have its huge population advantage, but to measure the powerness of a city, GDP and population are not the only factors

That's why osaka have far larger GDP than Singapore, but indeed SGP is a alpha world city but osaka is not

The same happen between Hong Kong and Shanghai, even Shanghai's GDP will surpass Hong Kong in the future, that does't mean anything, no one believe that Tokyo is more important than New York

[vvill]

it's interesting people like to compare hong kong and shanghai these days all the time. i understand both cities seem to serve as financial centres of similar nature but in fact, they've targeted to achieve something rather different.

the chinese government is aiming at developing shanghai as the premiere financial city in china while hong kong being the financial hub for the whole asia-pacific region. the two cities have their own strengths and they're very different in nature. shanghai is close to the main industrial areas in china and it would be sensible for companies to set up their offices in shanghai to monitor their production lines for proximity and efficiency reasons. hong kong as a contrast, has a well-developed financial system and more importantly, there's no control on currency exchange (still it'd take years or even decades for RMB to be able to be converted freely over the market). this makes Hong Kong the ideal place for multi-national companies to set up their regional HQs.

[vvill]

Number of Regional Headquarters and Regional Offices in HK, 1996-2004

[InitialD18]

i agree with you ... but shanghai does have the potential to be much more than hk ... shanghai has the potential of becoming the centre of the world ...
hk is still quite a bit more developed so it will take some time ...
and hk's financial hub status ...
it wouldn't be taken over i think ...
as the meeting place of chinese firms and foreign funds ...

[brooklynprospect]

Originally Posted by InitialD18

i agree with you ... but shanghai does have the potential to be much more than hk ... shanghai has the potential of becoming the centre of the world ...
hk is still quite a bit more developed so it will take some time ...
and hk's financial hub status ...
it wouldn't be taken over i think ...
as the meeting place of chinese firms and foreign funds ...

Of course Shanghai will take HK's position. HK has better skyscrapers, infrastructure, food, incomes, and really just about better everything than Shanghai. But guess what? It doesn't matter, because the Chinese government is pressing for Shanghai to become China's economic capital. If Chinese companies under government encouragement/prodding move their HQs to Shanghai, then foreign firms will follow. They already are. The Chinese will decide which Chinese city will be their hub, not westerners. This is not a patriotic statement (I'm not even from mainland China). Just common sense.

And if Shanghai becomes (or already is) China's main economic hub, what does that leave for HK? There's no long-term need for HK to act as some kind of mediator city between the scary weird Chinese in Shanghai and the civilized nice foreigners in NY, Tokyo, London etc. It's role will be a regional hub for South China, maybe like Chicago's role in America.

[ChinaboyUSA]

Shanghai's location is Yangtze Delta, where there are more intelligent people from history till now, and Hong Kong is located in Pearl River Delta, where is reputed as its business function...Shanghai has deeper Chinese culture -- 'Hai Pai (Ocean Concept) culture in compare with Beijing...but culturally, I won't put Shanghai and Hong Kong on the same level in term of the Chinese culture...Western culture, both has its own features as they are all very famous among foreign countries...Personally, I like both cities, they are all great business cities, but Shanghai has deeper typical Chinese intelligent culture interact with the business culture, Hong Kong is more depends on its business function especially a banking center.

I would vote for Shanghai, but Hong Kong (if you consider on melting - pot section or western category, it is more commercial so far). In the future, it is hard to tell who will win and who will lose, the government of China says that the nation can have two financial centers at the same time.

All the best, Hong Kong and Shanghai.

[brooklynprospect]

Originally Posted by ChinaboyUSA

the government of China says that the nation can have two financial centers at the same time.

The chinese government doesn't want to scare the shit out of people in HK. Especially since they still want to win over Taiwan voluntarily. But let's for a moment imagine that you're a leading member of the chinese communist party. Which city would you encourage to be your country's business capital? HK, which is outside of your direct control, and far more independent / free-willed than the rest of China? Or Shanghai, safely inside the legal/control boundries of your government?

And China looks like it will end up with one overall center. Do you think companies will have a South China HQ in HK and a rest-of-China HQ in Shanghai? Or have half the stocks traded in HK and half traded in Shanghai?

HK will probably keep some important niches, just like for example Chicago is number one in derivatives and commodies trading in America, and like Boston is number one in mutual funds in America. But nevertheless, NY remains the overwhelming center for the financial industry.

[hkskyline]

It's not in the best interests of Beijing to abandon Hong Kong and grow Shanghai. In fact, Hong Kong is a huge investor in China and China is always there to give HK a hand when times go bad. Beijing quickly responded to SARS by allowing mainland tourists to visit Hong Kong on simplifed visa application procedures, and millions poured in to revive the local economy.

The Communist Party is not very uptight in forcing headquarters to move to one particular city. They want to bring Shanghai back to its glorious days a century ago, but not at the expense of any other city. In fact, they are encouraging the wealth to spread around. That's why many Chinese companies are listing in Hong Kong. That's why the CEPA free trade agreement was signed to give Hong Kong and Macau companies with preferable access to mainland markets.

The regime is not blindly attaching to some mythical belief that all hell break loose if people don't go to Shanghai. They want economic development, and not some ideological goal. That's the major shift in thinking in today's capitalistic Communist China.

[samsonyuen]

I don't think Shanghai can take HK's position. It's already got the global city link. If anythin, Shanghai will simply grow and create its own niche. China's a huge country, it can have lots of big important cities.

[ChinaboyUSA]

Originally Posted by samsonyuen

I don't think Shanghai can take HK's position. It's already got the global city link. If anythin, Shanghai will simply grow and create its own niche. China's a huge country, it can have lots of big important cities.

Both cities belongs to not only China, but also the world.
Actually I like the name of HSBC -- Hong Kong & Shanghai Bank Corporation

[tiger]

Originally Posted by brooklynprospect

And China looks like it will end up with one overall center. Do you think companies will have a South China HQ in HK and a rest-of-China HQ in Shanghai? Or have half the stocks traded in HK and half traded in Shanghai?

Please don't imagine.in fact,each part of china has often an independant RHQ(for ex,the RHQ of western china is usually located in Chongqing).

not only Shanghai wants to be the financial centre but Beijing also does.Beijing has actually a not bad basis to reach it because of its capital status and lots of Beijing-located chinese huge national financial companies.it's important that both Shanghai and Beijing can not own a superiority in terms of tax and financial regime like HK,HK will continue to be the biggest financial hub of china.

[YangtzeSea]

Originally Posted by tiger

Please don't imagine.in fact,each part of china has often an independant RHQ(for ex,the RHQ of western china is usually located in Chongqing).

not only Shanghai wants to be the financial centre but Beijing also does.Beijing has actually a not bad basis to reach it because of its capital status and lots of Beijing-located chinese huge national financial companies.it's important that both Shanghai and Beijing can not own a superiority in terms of tax and financial regime like HK,HK will continue to be the biggest financial hub of china.

Hk will continue to be an important financial hub of Asia, but defintely not the biggest financial hub of China. Can Tokyo be the financial hub of China? So is Hong Kong.