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Old March 9th, 2016, 06:58 PM   #1541
Abhishek901
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66 million from 40 million by 2030 means an annual growth rate of 3.5%. Most of the large airports in Asia and other developing world are growing much faster than this. More than 10% on an average. With this rate, Toronto and for that matter most of the airports in developed countries will only lose ranks.
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Old March 10th, 2016, 05:32 AM   #1542
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Abhishek901 View Post
66 million from 40 million by 2030 means an annual growth rate of 3.5%. Most of the large airports in Asia and other developing world are growing much faster than this. More than 10% on an average. With this rate, Toronto and for that matter most of the airports in developed countries will only lose ranks.
Most of the large airports in Asia are already ahead of Pearson. There are perhaps 4-5 fast growing Asian airports close enough to catch Pearson over the next 19 years but there are also about 7-8 airports in the US alone that Pearson will likely reel in.

Another issue is that high growth tends not to get sustained every year over many many years. Even the fast growing airports often slow down for a number of years before resuming faster growth. Dubai and Mumbai aren't the norm. KLIA and Incheon are more representative. They grew very quickly then growth slowed and then picked up again.
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Old March 10th, 2016, 07:09 PM   #1543
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That's true. Airports slow down and pick up pace. But in developing countries, the average growth rates over a span of several decades is much higher because of higher population growth rates, faster urbanisation and more rapid increase in disposable incomes. Over such a long period, even a few percentage points difference matters a lot.

In next 20-30 years, there could be a dozen more airports from China and half a dozen more from India overtaking Pearson. For instance, in 2000, traffic at DEL was 1/4 of YYZ. In just 15 years, DEL is handling more. In 2002, traffic at PEK was same as YYZ. Today it is more than double.

There are several airports in China and India which are at half, one-third or one-fourth of YYZ today. In next 20 years, most, if not all, will be ahead of YYZ. And there are many more such airports in other developing countries.
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Old March 12th, 2016, 10:59 AM   #1544
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Good points all around. How busy Pearson gets will largely depend on the GTAA's (Greater Toronto Airports Authority) efforts to transform Toronto into a big global travel hub from just a big Canadian hub. The other big variable is whether Toronto can transform itself from a big regional (Canada/US midwest) tourism destination into a major global tourism destination.

It's early in the game and Toronto has tons of catching up to do relative to places like New York or Paris but the city does seem to be heading in that direction on both fronts. Pearson is already #2 in north America for international PAX, only trailing New York's JFK. Toronto is certainly an upstart so questioning its ability to be a heavy hitter is to be expected. Time will tell.

International passengers by airport (2015)
17. Kennedy, New York 28,471,427
26. Pearson, Toronto 23,279,850
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Old March 12th, 2016, 03:49 PM   #1545
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North America's geographical location limits its cities to become global hubs. Europe, North Africa, Middle East and South Asia have more "central" location.

YYZ may already have more point to point intl traffic than even Dubai but it won't be able to cash as much on the transit traffic due to its location. It can be a major regional hub and that depends a lot on Air Canada. I am not sure but I have read that Air Canada does not enjoy great reputation unlike good European and Asian airlines. This will need to change, if true.

And also taxes, etc are higher in Canada that's why cost of flying is higher. Price will always be a major factor in choosing a flight.
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Old March 12th, 2016, 09:08 PM   #1546
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I suppose I should have written north American hub rather than global hub. I've never heard about Air Canada having a bad reputation but there's always Westjet which is transforming into a strong #2 carrier. They only fly within north America but will start service to Gatwick in the spring so expansion to Europe and beyond is where they're headed. Competition forces players to up their game and Westjet tend to have high satisfaction rates.

You're right about the cost of using Canadian airports. The feds have historically viewed airports as cash cows to raise revenue rather than key pieces of infrastructure that benefit an economy. That has to change but Pearson is already one of the most expensive airports in the world to fly in and out of. The debt load to build Terminal One is behind the exorbitant fees there so that's not going away any time soon.
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Old March 13th, 2016, 03:05 AM   #1547
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Well Toronto's population is growing fast and the population of GTA is expected to grow to 9.4m by 2040 compared to 6m today. I don't see why YYZ wouldn't be able to be one of the top 5 busiest in North America.
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Old March 14th, 2016, 09:35 PM   #1548
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the spliff fairy View Post
the worlds biggest airports/ airhubs of the future imo, in no particular order:


Delhi
Beijing
Dubai
Istanbul
London
Shanghai
Atlanta
Chicago
Guangzhou
NYC
Tokyo
Jakarta
Hong Kong
Paris
LA
Frankfurt
Bangkok
Amsterdam
Mumbai
Mexico City
Rio de Janeiro
Singapore
Moscow
Chennai
Sao Paulo
Cairo
Seoul
Chongqing
Kolkata
Haikou
Manila
Rome
Berlin
Karachi
Kunming
Mecca
Kuala Lumpur
Madrid
Ho Chi Minh City
Hyderabad
San Francisco
Bogota
Bangalore
Tehran
Tianjin
Osaka
Shenzhen
Mecca??
Are you referring to the holy city of Mecca (Makkah) in Saudi Arabia? If so, since when did the city has it's own airport? It's being served by the KAIA in Jeddah, from where did you get this list from btw?
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Old March 16th, 2016, 11:18 AM   #1549
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DXB pax numbers for January were 7,327,637, an increase of 6.3 %.
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Old March 29th, 2016, 11:55 PM   #1550
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2015 passenger figures (source: official websites)

Tokyo NRT 37,328,213
Osaka KIX 23,214,756
Osaka ITM 14,541,634
Nagoya NGO 10,190,247

Bubbalo! Where are you man?
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Old April 4th, 2016, 02:17 PM   #1551
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Busiest airports in China, figures from CAAC.

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Old April 5th, 2016, 04:30 AM   #1552
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VECTROTALENZIS View Post
An updated list of the 30 biggest airports in the world in the full year of 2015 can be viewed here :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...senger_traffic
seems a bit different from ACI preliminary numbers
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Old April 6th, 2016, 04:26 PM   #1553
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Hi guys,
sorry I was unable to find some time since the beginning of the year. But I am back!
First things first - data for December 2015



DXB surpassed 7+ for the second time in history
both DEL and BOM experienced the busiest month ever
CDG is still impacted by terrorist attacks from Nov15

For the year end statistics:
Out of 50 busiest airport 42 of them experienced the busiest year in history
The exceptions are:
CGK (busiest year 2013), BKK (2012), KUL (2014), MAD (2007), LAS (2007), IAH (2007), GRU (2014) and MSP (2005)

ATL is the first airport to surpass 100+ passengers in a single year.
IST, FRA and PVG reached 60+ passengers for the first time
SFO reached 50+ passengers for the first time and BKK bounced back to 50+ category

8 airports moved from 30+ to 40+ category this year:
DEL, SEA, CTU, YYZ, MUC, BOM, FCO, LGW

I will post more graphs and stats later
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Old April 6th, 2016, 04:43 PM   #1554
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Data for January 2016



New year started for most airports in positive way. Only CGK, GRU and CLT saw passenger decrease on month-to-month data.
PEK surpassed 90+ passenger for the first time in history,
SYD a BCN crossed 40+ passengers becoming 38th respectively 39th airport to achieve that
BKK and ICN experienced the busiest month in the history.
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Old April 7th, 2016, 11:52 AM   #1555
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Excellente information as always, Bubbalo.

Besides DXB, which has shown a "stable" huge increase in the last years, the "rising star" is Shanghai Pudong. At this pace, together with IST, it will possible slip through into the busiest 10 airports at the end of the year. Perhaps CDG and DFW will leave it.
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Old April 9th, 2016, 02:37 AM   #1556
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Abhishek901 View Post
North America's geographical location limits its cities to become global hubs. Europe, North Africa, Middle East and South Asia have more "central" location.

YYZ may already have more point to point intl traffic than even Dubai but it won't be able to cash as much on the transit traffic due to its location. It can be a major regional hub and that depends a lot on Air Canada. I am not sure but I have read that Air Canada does not enjoy great reputation unlike good European and Asian airlines. This will need to change, if true.

And also taxes, etc are higher in Canada that's why cost of flying is higher. Price will always be a major factor in choosing a flight.
I agree on almost all points. North American cities will only lose ranks. I used to determine American airports' success on how many were above the Top 25. Now I look at how many airport systems have 50,000,000+ passengers because it's going to be impossible to compete on the rankings scale.

Canada's problem is two-fold, and it's exactly what you state. 1) Air Canada is a poor flag carrier. It's like American Airlines in the States. Moribund, bureaucratic with bad customer service. There are only 5 airlines I purposefully try to avoid flying and Air Canada is one of them. It doesn't help that they've partnered with United Airlines, which has probably the worst reputation in the US (It would be Southwest, then Delta, then American, then United).

And taxes is the other major one. Flying from Washington to Chicago can be done for $35 one-way. Flying to Toronto is normally 3-5x the price. That's a huge disadvantage if the goal is to bring in American tourists. The border wait and the bureaucracy in crossing countries is another major handicap. If North America had a Schengen system, I think passenger numbers would skyrocket in both Canada and Mexico. But if you give an American the option of paying $200 rt to visit Toronto and wait for 2 hours in security OR pay $70 for Chicago, they choose the latter. Same for Vancouver vs. Seattle. Same for Calgary vs. Denver. Or Montreal vs. New Orleans or Boston or New York. Bureaucracy and taxes are a huge turn-off.

I think in the long-term Vancouver and Calgary have good potential. Vancouver is becoming a major Asian hub. It has a ton of Chinese destinations. But it now has less than 1/2 of what Seattle has. And Seattle is making a major play to becoming THE Asian hub of North America. Which is why Alaska Airlines and Delta are fighting to the death to stake out market share. And Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles are all gearing up to compete directly with each other. There's a strong competition among the Big 3 in the West Coast. Vancouver so far seems completely oblivious to the fact that the Big 3 are making major inroads into Asia.

In the East, Toronto also has to compete increasingly with Boston for the European market. Toronto Pearson has grown by 11,000,000 passengers since 2009 while Boston has grown by 8,000,000 passengers. The difference is that Toronto's gain has been pretty widespread geographically whereas Boston has made a huge play for Europe. Boston is trying to become the 'Euro-hub' of North America. TAP is opening soon to Lisbon. Virgin Atlantic/Alaska to Manchester, UK. Eurowings to Cologne/Bonn (a destination that not even Toronto offers) and Air Berlin to Dusseldorf (another destination Toronto does not offer). And Norwegian is opening Copenhagen soon as well. This is all just in the past few months. Boston also managed to land Doha (Another not offered by Toronto) and is making a play for the British Isles market. An addition last year was Shannon, another destination not covered by Toronto.

Boston is also helped by the fact that it's biggest competition - New York and Washington - are completely dropping the ball. New York is coasting in terms of air and Washington, when it works, is trying to use its comparative advantage to land flights in Africa and the Middle East (like the new Casablanca flight).

Miami is also about to boom with Latin American destinations. Miami is competing with Mexico City and Panama City to be the major hub of LatAm north of the Equator. And I think it has major advantages over the other two. Houston might be the wild card here with a strong mix of Asia, LatAm and the Middle East.

Atlanta and Chicago are banking on the domestic market and are looking to be internal hubs. They've both registered major growth recently so it looks like a winning strategy so far. Chicago's O'Hare has grown by 12 million pax since 2009. Atlanta by 11 million. Dallas is another competitor and has grown by 8 million. But I think it's starting to lose out to Houston. The wild cards are Charlotte, Orlando, Phoenix, Las Vegas and Denver. I think Orlando and Las Vegas will do fine. They are destination cities. Denver is perfectly centralized and their airport is new. They should be fine. Charlotte and Phoenix to me are going to have to step it up so they don't become the next Saint Louis or Cincinnati.

For those who don't know.

Saint Louis-Lambert International Airport passengers:
1999: 30,558,991
2015: 12,752,331

Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky International Airport pax:
2000: 22,406,384
2015: 6,316,332

Detroit and Philadelphia might also either bomb or boom. They have very strong advantaged and disadvantages. I'd love to see how they perform in the next decade. Detroit has fewer pax today than 10 years ago. But they still have flights to Amsterdam, Paris, Tokyo, Seoul, Nagoya, London and Beijing. Which is impressive for a supposedly dying city. At the same time they don't even have flights to Stuttgart, Munich or Milan which are the automobile capitals of Europe. Seems a little like a wasted opportunity.
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Atlanta (6,451,262) - Boston (8,176,376) - Chicago (9,882,634) - Cleveland (3,483,311) - Dallas (7,673,305) - Denver (3,470,235) - Detroit (5,318,653) - Houston (6,972,374)
Los Angeles (18,688,022) - Miami (6,723,472) - Minneapolis (3,894,820) - New York (23,689,255) - Orlando (3,202,927) - Philadelphia (7,179,357) - Phoenix (4,661,537)
Portland (3,160,488) - San Diego (3,317,749) - San Francisco (8,751,807) - Seattle (4,684,516) - Tampa (3,032,171) - Washington (9,665,892)
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Old April 9th, 2016, 02:53 AM   #1557
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EmiratesAirline380 View Post
Well Toronto's population is growing fast and the population of GTA is expected to grow to 9.4m by 2040 compared to 6m today. I don't see why YYZ wouldn't be able to be one of the top 5 busiest in North America.
Washington-Baltimore has 9.6 million people (#4 in the US) and it's #8 in terms of the size of its airport system. Washington-Baltimore's airport system is at 67,000,000. Atlanta with about 2/3rds the population is at 101,000,000 pax. So size means little. Places like Denver and Las Vegas vastly exceed much bigger cities in terms of passengers. Denver is almost 2x bigger than Philadelphia, a metro with 2x the population.

The fifth biggest airport in North America today is New York at 56,827,154. And it grew 7% last year. #4 is the slow growing Dallas-FW but it's at 64 million. After that you have Atlanta, Chicago and Los Angeles which all grew more, in absolute terms than Toronto since the financial crisis has ended. To be #3, you need 75,000,000 pax nearly 2x what Toronto has now. And if we go by just these 5, then we can extrapolate and Toronto would need to have at least 75 million by 2025 to crack into the Top 5.

It's doable but very difficult. Atlanta and Chicago are internal hubs in a country of 325 million people. Los Angeles and New York are international hubs for a country of 325 million people. That alone gives those 4 tremendous advantages. Of those 5, Toronto will only outpace Dallas in growth and could surpass it in maybe 20 years' time. By then though I suspect it'll be facing stiff competition from Miami and San Francisco.

In the past decade, Miami has gained 14,000,000 pax. San Francisco has gained 17,000,000 pax and Toronto has grown by 12,000,000 pax. And the difference here is that Miami and San Francisco both have huge feeder airports that absolutely dwarf in size Munro. Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach in Miami are showing tremendous growth and San Jose and Oakland (The Bay Area's secondary airports) together have 20,000,000 passengers. Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach together have 32,000,000 passengers. And this is excluding the fact that Miami and San Francisco Internationals are already bigger than Toronto Pearson. So Toronto is already playing catch-up.

And Houston is another dark horse. I think it will take a lot of effort to be a Top 10 airport in North America. There's a ton of competition. I think in the end Toronto will stabilize at #7-8 behind Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, and San Francisco. I think it surpasses Charlotte, Denver, Las Vegas and Phoenix. If Houston keeps growing by 160k people a year, I think Toronto might struggle to stay in the Top 8 and will be #9. I don't think Minneapolis, Orlando or Seattle show any signs of passing Toronto.
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Los Angeles (18,688,022) - Miami (6,723,472) - Minneapolis (3,894,820) - New York (23,689,255) - Orlando (3,202,927) - Philadelphia (7,179,357) - Phoenix (4,661,537)
Portland (3,160,488) - San Diego (3,317,749) - San Francisco (8,751,807) - Seattle (4,684,516) - Tampa (3,032,171) - Washington (9,665,892)

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Old April 12th, 2016, 08:06 AM   #1558
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MEX will also surely be in the top 10 North American airports in the near future. The current airport, despite being overcrowded, grew by over 12% last year and looks like it will grow by a similar amount this year. We are talking that it will likely finish 2016 with more than 43 million passengers. A decade from now, the new airport will have been completed and in operation - it could easily be in the top 5 even.
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Old April 12th, 2016, 11:34 AM   #1559
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March 2016:
Madrid Barajas: 3.989.324 passengers +9% (+329.318 passengers)
Barcelona El Prat: 3.301.296 passengers +14.1% (+408.886 passengers)

January-March 2016:
Madrid Barajas: 10.969.641 passengers +11.9%
Barcelona-El Prat: 8.490.875 passengers +16.1%
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Old April 12th, 2016, 04:47 PM   #1560
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That's a very impressive growth rate for both MAD and BCN. At this pace, Madrid will probably reach a new all-time annual record and Barcelona, which for years has been breaking records will possibly end this year slipping through into the 30 busiest.

On the other hand, I'm not sure if MEX will be one of the 5 busiest in North America ten years from now, but if this is not the case it will surely be very close to reach this group. In this regard, I think Toronto will have a tough time to reach that position.
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