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Old October 3rd, 2010, 05:27 PM   #1881
aab7772003
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Not really. This super long-haul flight will easily tie up at least 4 aircraft if doing daily service. Is there enough J passenger as Y alone will not likely breakeven. Note that even with a lower cost-base, Chinese carriers are not starting this route, and the Japanese are giving it up. Frequency matters for the established business routes. Whether there is an established market for direct to South America is highly questionable at this point. You increase frequency when you know you are making money and there are prospects for that. Doing codeshare from Australia seems the best solution right now.
Currently, SQ, KE, CA, MH trapsort passengers between Asia and South America direct. I am not talking about daily Hong Kong - South America services. No single airlines provide Asia - South America daily services, nor will there be for a long time. The advantage CX has over Mainland Chinese carriers is its shuttle services to Hong Kong from all major Asian metropolis.

The only possible South America routes from CX are HKG - SYD/AKL/JFK - GRU.
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Old October 3rd, 2010, 05:57 PM   #1882
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Originally Posted by aab7772003 View Post
Currently, SQ, KE, CA, MH trapsort passengers between Asia and South America direct. I am not talking about daily Hong Kong - South America services. No single airlines provide Asia - South America daily services, nor will there be for a long time. The advantage CX has over Mainland Chinese carriers is its shuttle services to Hong Kong from all major Asian metropolis.

The only possible South America routes from CX are HKG - SYD/AKL/JFK - GRU.
Do we have 5th freedom to pick up from any of those stopovers for the onward trip to South America?
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Old October 3rd, 2010, 06:32 PM   #1883
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Do we have 5th freedom to pick up from any of those stopovers for the onward trip to South America?
US West-Coast - South America is not really a high-demand market.

Hong Kong does not want to have the Open Skies with many countries, namely the US.

I do not think the Hong Kong aviation industry and Cathay Pacific need protections these days, especially since CX has been so used to compete with 5,6, 7 carriers on many routes.

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Something to keep in mind before another "we have lost the leadership in this area within the Greater China" déjà vu.
Cathay Pacific is competitive enough.
Hong Kong will not be the only and biggest airport gateway for the Greater China.
The only sustainable solution to reinforce the global competitiveness of HKIA and CX is to increase the number of destinations HKIA serves.

Last edited by aab7772003; October 3rd, 2010 at 06:52 PM.
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Old October 4th, 2010, 11:30 AM   #1884
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US West-Coast - South America is not really a high-demand market.

Hong Kong does not want to have the Open Skies with many countries, namely the US.

I do not think the Hong Kong aviation industry and Cathay Pacific need protections these days, especially since CX has been so used to compete with 5,6, 7 carriers on many routes.
I doubt HK government can negotiate such 5th freedom, hence the economics will be challenging. It's not a matter of HK's industry willing to do it, but rather whether foreign governments are willing to go along with it.
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Old October 4th, 2010, 03:59 PM   #1885
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I doubt HK government can negotiate such 5th freedom, hence the economics will be challenging. It's not a matter of HK's industry willing to do it, but rather whether foreign governments are willing to go along with it.
The US has been asking for Open Skies with Hong Kong for ages, but the Hong Kong government and CX reject the pact. If Singapore and Korea can enjoy the fifth freedom on their South American airlines, Hong Kong should not have too much trouble to enjoy the same privileges.

It will probably only take a couple of decades for CAN to catch up with HKG in terms of the number of international destinations served.

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HK aims to sustain edge as aviation hub
Chek Lap Kok sees rising air travel traffic as demand from Pearl River Delta grows

4 October 2010
South China Morning Post

...

Guangzhou and Shenzhen airports offer more mainland connections, but Hong Kong beats them in international connections. Hong Kong has air links to 110 international and 40 mainland destinations, according to the Hong Kong Airport Authority. In comparison, Shenzhen International Airport offers flights to more than 90 mainland cities and, according to the airport's website, has traffic rights with 37 countries. About 30 international destinations are actually served, although about half of those are for freight services only. As of the end of last year, Guangzhou Baiyun Airport offered 143 mainland and 54 international flight routes, according to the airport's 2009 annual report.

...

It is time to shake off the "Kai Tak mentality" completely. Back then, it was not optimal to do full hub operations because of the facility constraint. I doubt that there is that much demand between DXB and GRU.

Last edited by aab7772003; October 4th, 2010 at 04:18 PM.
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Old October 4th, 2010, 06:59 PM   #1886
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Originally Posted by aab7772003 View Post
The US has been asking for Open Skies with Hong Kong for ages, but the Hong Kong government and CX reject the pact. If Singapore and Korea can enjoy the fifth freedom on their South American airlines, Hong Kong should not have too much trouble to enjoy the same privileges.

It will probably only take a couple of decades for CAN to catch up with HKG in terms of the number of international destinations served.
But SQ is using Spain to go to South America, and historically Spanish airlines have a very strong Latin America network due to colonial ties. Thus, Iberia is not likely to be threatened significantly from outsiders. This is not the case for other potential stopover markets.

The US wanted HK to give major concessions, including 5th freedoms, but would not reciprocate. That's why HK rejected the proposal.
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Old October 4th, 2010, 07:30 PM   #1887
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But SQ is using Spain to go to South America, and historically Spanish airlines have a very strong Latin America network due to colonial ties. Thus, Iberia is not likely to be threatened significantly from outsiders. This is not the case for other potential stopover markets.

The US wanted HK to give major concessions, including 5th freedoms, but would not reciprocate. That's why HK rejected the proposal.
Latin America and deep South America are completely different regions, especially to the airline industry. Then, Brazil is like another world within South America.

US East Coast - South America is another thriving market.

The issue of Oneworld members do not work closely comes up again and again. It is understandable that CX does not work closely with BA and QF, but it is strange that CX and IB do not work more closely at all. CX should launch services to Madrid for access to the entire South America and further European coverage.

When you have the Open Skies, you also deal with the Fifth Freedom. I am sure that CX would gain more Fifth Freedom via the US with the Open Skies. The US carrier hub operations did not kill the dominance of Japan in the Asian airline industry. Japan´s own airline and airport policies did.

Wasn´t CX going to launch daily LHR - JFK services?

Last edited by aab7772003; October 7th, 2010 at 09:26 AM.
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Old October 4th, 2010, 07:35 PM   #1888
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Latin America and deep South America are completely different regions, especially to the airline industry. Then, Brazil is like another world in South America.

US East Coast - South America is another thriving market.

The issue of Oneworld members do not work closely comes up again and again. It is understandable that CX does not work closely with BA and QF, but it is strange that CX and IB do not work more closely at all. CX should launch services to Madrid for access to the entire South America and further European coverage.

When you have the Open Skies, you also deal with the Fifth Freedoms. The US carrier hub operations did not kill the dominance of Japan in the Asian airline industry. Japan´s own airline and airport policies did.
How is Latin America and South America different to the airline industry? The two overlap, and many countries speak Spanish, hence the strong aviation connection between them & the US and Spain. Even the West Coast can be easily-connected to Miami for flights southbound.

IB has been preoccupied with their BA merger of late. Don't think Asia was ever big on their plate, since they had a big Latin America operation going, and CX was quite happy with codesharing with BA and feeding into their Europe network. If the economics were better, then perhaps we would've seen more collaboration within the alliance. It all boils down to is there profit to be made?
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Old October 4th, 2010, 07:50 PM   #1889
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How is Latin America and South America different to the airline industry? The two overlap, and many countries speak Spanish, hence the strong aviation connection between them & the US and Spain. Even the West Coast can be easily-connected to Miami for flights southbound.
Actually, exchanges between Latin America and South America are NOT as intensive as they should be, considering the fact that the populations there all speak Spanish.

Airlines offer completely different service solutions to their Latin and South American markets. The fleet, the food, cabin services, etc. are all different. Yes, even the Spanish used for various destinations is different depending on the countries and sub regions. You do not offer the exact same cabin services to the Chinese speaking Chinese from Taiwan, Hong Kong, Mainland China and Singapore.

Last edited by aab7772003; October 4th, 2010 at 08:22 PM.
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Old October 5th, 2010, 04:02 AM   #1890
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Originally Posted by aab7772003 View Post
Actually, exchanges between Latin America and South America are NOT as intensive as they should be, considering the fact that the populations there all speak Spanish.

Airlines offer completely different service solutions to their Latin and South American markets. The fleet, the food, cabin services, etc. are all different. Yes, even the Spanish used for various destinations is different depending on the countries and sub regions. You do not offer the exact same cabin services to the Chinese speaking Chinese from Taiwan, Hong Kong, Mainland China and Singapore.
But Iberia clearly has the advantage of a huge South America network, so they will not likely be threatened by SQ doing Barcelona - Sao Paulo. I recall seeing they already fly this route from a schedule search.

The Americans won't let CX do 5th freedom out of the US. Even if yes, there is a huge barrier of entry as there is a large Spanish-speaking population in the US and they also have good connectivity to South America.
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Old October 5th, 2010, 09:09 AM   #1891
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
But Iberia clearly has the advantage of a huge South America network, so they will not likely be threatened by SQ doing Barcelona - Sao Paulo. I recall seeing they already fly this route from a schedule search.

The Americans won't let CX do 5th freedom out of the US. Even if yes, there is a huge barrier of entry as there is a large Spanish-speaking population in the US and they also have good connectivity to South America.
Why not HKG to GRU via YYZ? The latter leg may see strong high-yield demand by minerals/oil traffic, and the allure of avoiding transfers in the US altogether may be strong. Just an idea.

The Canadian government seems to be more receptive to fifth freedoms than the US. It's still too protective of AC, though.
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Old October 5th, 2010, 09:43 AM   #1892
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Why not HKG to GRU via YYZ? The latter leg may see strong high-yield demand by minerals/oil traffic, and the allure of avoiding transfers in the US altogether may be strong. Just an idea.

The Canadian government seems to be more receptive to fifth freedoms than the US. It's still too protective of AC, though.
AC is trying to make Toronto a hub for its South America expansion. They will lobby the government to death to derail any 5th freedom proposal. Besides, there is very little for Canada to gain in return. Even if HK grants Canadian airlines 5th freedom, I don't think AC is interested in doing more than what they have now. They probably would prefer increasing frequencies to existing destinations than to do a 1-stop additional flight. I do recall CP used to fly from HK to Bangkok though.
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Old October 5th, 2010, 10:50 AM   #1893
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Boeing delay to affect Cathay cargo operation
Test glitch in new freighter causes delivery setback

5 October 2010
South China Morning Post

Cathay Pacific Airways will be forced to operate a smaller freighter fleet for several months next year because of delays in the delivery and the need to transfer four aircraft to a new cargo joint venture in Shanghai.

The carrier will seek compensation from the manufacturer and talks will be held at an appropriate time, a Cathay spokesman said.

"We are naturally disappointed by the delay but pleased that we now have clarity on the revised delivery schedule," the spokesman said.

The recent delay of the Boeing 747-8F, of which Cathay has ordered 10, will probably give rise to a small reduction in its cargo capacity from May to July, the spokesman said.

The carrier has planned to take delivery of six freighters next year. It is obliged to transfer four B747-400BCF to the cargo joint venture with Air China in the first half of next year, resulting in a net decrease in Cathay's freighter operation.

The magnitude of the reduction will largely depend on when the venture gets the final approval from the mainland government.

The first BCF has been taken out from Cathay's fleet and repainted in the joint venture's colour and registration.

Cathay expected to take delivery of the first five of six 747-8Fs from January but the first freighter would not arrive until August, an executive from Cathay said.

"All of the six freighters next year would be delivered by September and come in quite a rush," the executive said. "It is fortunate that the freighters would be ready for the peak season starting in October."

The 747-8F can carry up to 134 tonnes of cargo, compared with 90 tonnes by the B747BCF.

Boeing last week announced the latest delay of the 747-8F and postponed the first delivery to the middle of next year.

The freighter has received 76 orders from worldwide clients with Cargolux as the launch customer.

The delay was due to a low-frequency vibration in certain flight conditions, which will lead to disruptions to certification testing. But the manufacturer stressed that the problem is not a structural one and is confident of the delivery schedule next year.

In order to resolve the expected shortfall in the freighter fleet, Cathay is looking for short-term leases.

The carrier does not want to commit to long-term leasing contracts because of the big increase in capacity expected from the freighter fleet from 2012.

However, the short-term leasing rate would be higher than normal leasing contracts. The delay of the 747-8F also would cause a spur in demand and jack up leasing rates for freighters in the short term, market observers said.

In addition to leasing from the market, Cathay will also bring forward planned maintenance of freighters and increase aircraft utilisation to maintain the cargo schedule next year.

Shares in Cathay rose 3.8 per cent to close at HK$21.85 yesterday.
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Old October 5th, 2010, 04:13 PM   #1894
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
But Iberia clearly has the advantage of a huge South America network, so they will not likely be threatened by SQ doing Barcelona - Sao Paulo. I recall seeing they already fly this route from a schedule search.

The Americans won't let CX do 5th freedom out of the US. Even if yes, there is a huge barrier of entry as there is a large Spanish-speaking population in the US and they also have good connectivity to South America.
Since when I said that Iberia does not fly to Brazil? Iberia has been flying to Brazil for a long time.

CX will not experience any difficultly to do one daily flight to GRU; it can make money on Asian passengers, Brazilian passengers and cargoes.
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Old October 5th, 2010, 04:19 PM   #1895
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Since when I said that Iberia does not fly to Brazil? Iberia has been flying to Brazil for a long time.

CX will not experience any difficultly to do one daily flight to GRU; it can make money on Asian passengers, Brazilian passengers and cargoes.
I'm doubtful whether they can even make money. But then, making money alone is not enough. Is it worth putting all those planes on this route when they cannot board more passengers along the way to reduce risk, when they can be used on other even more profitable routes?
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Old October 5th, 2010, 04:40 PM   #1896
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I'm doubtful whether they can even make money. But then, making money alone is not enough. Is it worth putting all those planes on this route when they cannot board more passengers along the way to reduce risk, when they can be used on other even more profitable routes?
Again, CX would have a better idea because it is sure watching how KE and SQ are doing. Opening up new markets means more than just starting flights to very obviously popular destinations.

Last edited by aab7772003; October 5th, 2010 at 06:13 PM.
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Old October 5th, 2010, 05:30 PM   #1897
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Again, CX would have a better idea because it is sure watching how KE and SQ are doing.
Meanwhile ...

JAL says farewell to 30 years of Narita-Sao Paulo route
28 September 2010
Kyodo News

SAO PAULO, Sept. 28 -- A ceremony to mark a farewell to Japan Airlines Corp.'s Sao Paulo-Narita services was held at Guarulhos International Airport in Brazil Monday evening before the last flight left for Japan.

Since JAL, now under the state-backed rehabilitation process, launched the longest flight service from Japan in 1978, many Japanese-Brazilians have come and gone between the two countries.

A 63-year-old woman who emigrated from Nagasaki Prefecture to Brazil at the age of 15 and now lives in Rio de Janeiro, said, ''I miss it...I felt at home whenever I got on board a JAL airplane.''

At the ceremony, a JAL official told the 250 passengers of the last flight, ''We will be back to Sao Paulo after reconstructing our company.''
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Old October 5th, 2010, 06:07 PM   #1898
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Meanwhile ...

JAL says farewell to 30 years of Narita-Sao Paulo route
28 September 2010
Kyodo News

SAO PAULO, Sept. 28 -- A ceremony to mark a farewell to Japan Airlines Corp.'s Sao Paulo-Narita services was held at Guarulhos International Airport in Brazil Monday evening before the last flight left for Japan.

Since JAL, now under the state-backed rehabilitation process, launched the longest flight service from Japan in 1978, many Japanese-Brazilians have come and gone between the two countries.

A 63-year-old woman who emigrated from Nagasaki Prefecture to Brazil at the age of 15 and now lives in Rio de Janeiro, said, ''I miss it...I felt at home whenever I got on board a JAL airplane.''

At the ceremony, a JAL official told the 250 passengers of the last flight, ''We will be back to Sao Paulo after reconstructing our company.''
Well, how about SQ is going to start flights to Brazil and Pan Am ended its flights to NRT and LHR?

I will repeat my point like you have just done:

Quote:
Originally Posted by aab7772003 View Post
... The US carrier hub operations did not kill the dominance of Japan in the Asian airline industry. Japan´s own airline and airport policies did.

...
Remember how huge JAL was and see how huge all the Asian flag carriers have become? ANA has also become a much bigger airline now. What is happening to JAL at this moment says a lot more about the Japanese aviation policy and the management of JAL than anything else. JAL is axing European flights like mad too, to the delights of European flag carriers. Even AZ is adding more flights to Japan as soon as JAL is pulling out of the Italian market.

Last edited by aab7772003; October 5th, 2010 at 07:08 PM.
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Old October 6th, 2010, 04:09 AM   #1899
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Wish JAL all the luck on reconstructing their airline. Maybe one day we will see JAL as big as all those other Aisan airlines again. Is Singapore going to start new flights? I thought they were flying to Brazil and another city to Europe form Brazil.
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Old October 6th, 2010, 08:56 AM   #1900
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Well, how about SQ is going to start flights to Brazil and Pan Am ended its flights to NRT and LHR?

I will repeat my point like you have just done:



Remember how huge JAL was and see how huge all the Asian flag carriers have become? ANA has also become a much bigger airline now. What is happening to JAL at this moment says a lot more about the Japanese aviation policy and the management of JAL than anything else. JAL is axing European flights like mad too, to the delights of European flag carriers. Even AZ is adding more flights to Japan as soon as JAL is pulling out of the Italian market.
But Japan has a legitimately large Japanese population in Brazil. But even that was not enough to keep the route, as it was not likely profitable enough to do so. You don't see JAL axing its other key routes. At the end of the day, what's not profitable has to go, and clearly Sao Paulo was one of the least profitable so were the first to be cut. That's the point.
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