HKG | Hong Kong International Airport

[hkskyline]

Long-haul passenger Air China may want upgrade from economy
10 June 2006
South China Morning Post

COMFORT WAS ONE of the key issues at yesterday's press conference on Cathay Pacific Airways' co-operation with Air China. The issue isn't the seat pitch in economy class but the level of Air China's ownership in Cathay.

Air China, together with its subsidiary China National Aviation Co (CNAC), will hold 17.5 per cent of Cathay after the deal, leaving Britain's Swire Group, the airline's founder, firmly in control. The question for Air China is whether that situation can last.

For now, China's flag carrier professes to be happy with the new status quo. "We are sitting here very comfortably," says Air China chairman Li Jiaxing.

One reason is the financial drain the deal will impose on highly geared Air China. The $4 billion share sale proceeds and $108 million dividend from Cathay won't cover the $5.8 billion it must pay to boost its Cathay stake.

More importantly, while the deal may ease some of the pressure it faces from domestic rivals China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines, which must now cope with a far stronger Cathay, it does nothing to bolster Air China's flagging international competitiveness.

Long haul and international flights have always been the weakest link at mainland carriers. That's hardly in China's interest as it faces pressure to award more traffic rights to foreign carriers in coming trade talks.

Since Beijing will not want to see the rapidly expanding international traffic from China go mostly to foreign operators, it's imperative for it to see Air China strengthen its international operations.

Granted, the deal does include the promise of a new operating agreement between Air China and Cathay that will include reciprocal sales representation for passenger services in Greater China, along with code share and profit-sharing arrangements for all passenger services between Hong Kong and the mainland.

But that agreement is limited largely to Greater China and thus will have only a modest impact on Air China's international business. Indeed, earlier co-operative agreements between the two carriers have so far borne little fruit. And it's not clear that the tacit endorsement of Air China inherent in Cathay doubling its stake to 20 per cent will have much impact on the way potential passengers view the airline.

Small wonder, then, that the talk of Air China raising its stake further or even trying to take over Cathay refuses to die down. That's despite repeated denials by both parties. "We have no intention of reducing our interest in Cathay. We are committed to aviation," says Swire chairman Christopher Pratt.

Nevertheless, should Air China eventually seek to gain control of Cathay, its best option will be to pay for the deal by giving Swire new shares plus some cash. That will allow the mainland carrier to gain immediate access to the expertise and infrastructure of a highly regarded international carrier while giving Swire a bigger slice of the world's fastest-growing civil aviation market.

Of course, there are hurdles, the prime one being that Air China simply isn't big enough to swallow Cathay whole. Its total market capitalisation is only 60 per cent that of Cathay. So control may come only by taking on debt the airline can ill afford to shoulder or by Beijing relinquishing majority control of its flagship.

With the reopening of the A-share market and the recent rebound in mainland stocks, it may be only a matter of time before Air China finds itself in a position where it can contemplate making a bid for full control. Whether it will take that bold step will depend on how well the partnership goes and perhaps more importantly, how other domestic carriers react to the partnership. Yesterday's deal is likely to trigger a restructuring of the mainland aviation sector with results that are still difficult to foretell.

[hkskyline]

天 空 之 城 （ 重 播 ）
http://www.rthk.org.hk/rthk/tv/cityt.../20050801.html

香 港 經 濟 命 脈 的 國 際 機 場 ， 啟 用 超 過 七 年 ， 機 場 內 ， 各 個 商 業 伙 伴 ， 以 至 各 個 相 關 機 構 及 政 府 部 門 ， 日 常 如 何 運 作 ， 一 直 鮮 為 人 知 。

機 場 為 24 小 時 運 作 ， 內 裡 的 資 源 、 交 通 ， 以 致 通 訊 等 ， 都 有 獨 特 的 一 套 運 作 模 式 ， 四 萬 多 人 身 處 赤  角 內 ， 可 以 話 自 給 自 足 ， 儼 如 一 個 大 城 市 。

《 天 空 之 城 》 這 系 列 的 電 視 專 輯 ， 正 是 希 望 讓 大 眾 了 解 機 場 內 ， 包 括 貨 運 、出 入 境 安 全 、 飛 機 維 修 工 程 ， 以 至 客 運 大 樓 等 各 範 疇 ， 有 趣 以 及 鮮 為 人 知 的 一 面 。

節 目 於 2005 年 七 月 十 一 日 至 八 月 二 十 九 日 ， 逢 星 期 一 凌 晨 零 時 三 十 五 分 亞 洲 電 視 本 港 台 播 映 。

[hkskyline]

HK's Cathay Pacific acquisition of Dragonair changes competitive landscape-Fitch
14 June 2006

HONG KONG (XFN-ASIA) - Fitch Ratings said the recently-announced acquisition of Hong Kong Dragon Airlines Ltd (Dragonair) by Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd is expected to change the competitive landscape of Greater China's aviation market, especially for the lucrative routes between Hong Kong and mainland cities.

'A transaction of this nature has been long expected,' said Michael Wu, associate director of Asia Corporates at Fitch, adding that Cathay will gain meaningful access to the fast-growing mainland China market via the acquisition of Dragonair.

'Other benefits from the purchase include the optimization of routes arising from an integration of both airlines' existing networks, synergies from a larger scale of operations and closer ties between Cathay and Air China,' he said.

Fitch said Air China Ltd and Cathay will form a cross shareholding relationship, and together they will command a 60 pct share of lucrative mainland-Hong Kong routes.

Fitch said the two carriers are expected to work together closely and their respective competitive positions will be strengthened through the alliance.

'Other competing carriers, such as China Southern Airlines Ltd and China Eastern Airlines Ltd will be greatly disadvantaged by this deal,' added Eliza Liu, associate director of Asia Corporates in Beijing.

Cathay, Swire Pacific, Dragonair, Air China and CITIC Pacific said last Friday that they have entered into a conditional agreement to restructure the shareholdings of Dragonair, Cathay, and Air China.

Under the agreement, Cathay will acquire an 82 pct stake in Dragonair and a cross shareholding relationship between Cathay and Air China will be established.

[hkskyline]

HK Air Cargo Terminals says Cathay-Dragonair deal may hurt airlines, cargo industry
12 June 2006

HONG KONG (AP) - Hong Kong Air Cargo Terminals Ltd., or Hactl, has said the merger between Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. and Hong Kong Dragon Airlines Ltd. may hurt airlines, cargo terminal operators and freight forwarders.

Cathay Pacific, Hong Kong's largest airline, Friday announced plans to acquire Dragon Airlines for HK$8.22 billion (US$1.05 billion, €820 million). The announcement comes after the airline applied to the city's airport authority to build a dedicated air cargo facility at Hong Kong International Airport.

Hactl, which accounts for 80 percent of air cargo movement in Hong Kong, said Cathay Pacific and Dragonair's combined cargo volume makes up 40 percent of the airport's total.

"The merger of the two airlines if combined with cargo self-handling would there create a dominant, vertically-integrated air cargo operation," Hactl said in a statement late Sunday.

"Hactl believes that this development has the potential to negatively impact airlines, cargo terminal operators, freight forwarders and other participants in one of Hong Kong's key business sectors," it said.

The terminal operator said any decision by the airport authority regarding the new terminal will have long term consequences to the cargo handling and logistics industry.

"There must, therefore, be a process of full and open consultation with all stakeholders."

Cathay Pacific, which owns 10 percent of Hactl and is the operator's largest customer, earlier said it plans to build its own air cargo terminal because of high handling costs at Hactl. The airline said charges at Hactl are more than double what it pays on average across its system.

Hactl is 10 percent-owned by Cathay Pacific and 20 percent by its Cathay's parent company, Swire Group.

[hkskyline]

14 June 2006
Best Airline - China for a 5th Consecutive Year
Dragonair Press Release

(HONG KONG) Dragonair has been voted Best Airline - China for a fifth consecutive year in the respected international Skytrax passenger survey.

The passenger survey was undertaken between September 2005 and May 2006, and measured more than 35 aspects of passenger satisfaction.

"This is a very great honour - one that each and every member of staff at Dragonair shares," said Chief Executive Officer Stanley Hui.

"On behalf of us all at Dragonair I would like to thank all those travellers who voted for us.

"We remain committed to providing the best possible travel experience to our customers, and will continue to provide the services that make Dragonair the airline of choice to the China Mainland."

With the launch of direct services to Shenyang in late March, Dragonair now operates passenger services to 32 Asia-Pacific destinations, including 23 in the China Mainland. It operates about 400 flights every week to cities in the Mainland, more than any other non-Mainland airline.

More than 13 million travellers voted in this year's Skytrax survey, making it the biggest poll of its kind in the world.

[hkskyline]

Hong Kong Express Airways Announces Traffic Figures

Hong Kong, June 10, 2006

Hong Kong Express Airways today announced its passenger traffic figures for the period May 1st 2006 to May 31st 2006.

Hong Kong Express Airways flew 11,741 passengers in May – a drop approximately proportionate to the reduction in the number of flights operated to 310 from 348 in April 2006. Accordingly, passenger seat factor improved slightly increasing by a little over 0.8 percentage points to 49.8 per cent. The most popular route in May was between Hong Kong and Hangzhou. Peak travel occurred on May 25 when 360 people flew with Hong Kong Express.

Comments Hong Kong Express Airways Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Andrew Tse: “With the launch so far in June of charter services to Taichung and the forthcoming launch of direct scheduled services between Hong Kong and Chiang Mai on June 22nd, the summer holiday season looks to be shaping up nicely for us.”

	May 2006 	April 2006
Available Seat Kilometer (‘000) 	31,704 	35,297
Revenue Pax Kilometer (‘000) 	15,035 	15,241
No of flights operated 	310 	348

Notes to Editors:

Hong Kong Express:

Hong Kong Express is notable for its focus on the needs of business travellers – from its new Embraer 170 jets which offer the comfort of a well designed 2 + 2 single class cabin, through to its flight frequencies.

From its base at Hong Kong’s Chek Lap Kok airport, Hong Kong Express operates multiple daily services between Hong Kong and Mainland China. For further information, schedules and fares please visit: www.hongkongexpress.com or call Hong Kong Express reservations on +852 3151 1888.

[dicksonlai]

HKIA Press

HKIA passenger throughput up 7% in May

(HONG KONG, 18 June 2006) - The surge of Chinese Mainland visitors during the Labour Day Golden Week holidays provided Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) with a strong impetus for continuous passenger growth.

Passenger throughput in May reached 3.5 million, up 7.0% from the same period last year. Boosted by the busy traffic, aircraft movements grew 7.4% to 23,260 over May 2005.

Last month also saw a steady growth of cargo throughput with a total of 283,000 tonnes, representing a 4.5% growth compared to the same month last year.

Airport Management Director of the Airport Authority Hong Kong Mr Howard Eng said, "For the first five months this year, passenger volume reached 17.7 million, representing a double digit increase over the same period last year. Continuous growth of passenger traffic was mainly driven by the steady growth of visitors from USA, Europe, South East Asia and Chinese Mainland. As summer holidays are approaching, we remain positive for passenger traffic."

Passenger throughput for the past 12 months amounted to 42.3 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%. Cargo volume and aircraft movements reached 3.5 million tonnes and 274,000, up 8.9% and 11.3% respectively.

[hkskyline]

Cathay takes China box seat in aviation overhaul

HONG KONG, June 18, 2006 (AFP) - A shake-up of the aviation industry is looming across Asia as airlines come to grips with Cathay Pacific's ownership overhaul, setting it up as a dominant world player with a box seat in China.

Analysts believe the Hong Kong flag carrier's acquisition of Dragonair and strategic alliance with Air China could put it in a position to eclipse rivals such as Singapore Airlines and Qantas.

More importantly it realises Cathay Pacific's long-held ambition to get into the key China market and creates breathing space for Air China, which suffers from close political oversight given its status as the mainland flag carrier.

"These are positive steps, positive developments," said Jim Eckes, Hong-Kong based managing director at airline consultancy Indoswiss Aviation.

He said the central government's role in the running of Beijing-based Air China, a contentious point with many in the industry, could be kept in check under the deal and by Cathay Pacific's new found influence.

"Air China has always been the weakest of the Big Three in China," he said referring to China Southern and China Eastern airlines. "It doesn't make it any easier with people looking over your shoulder."

Cathay Pacific is to acquire Dragonair and double its stake in state-controlled Air China to 20 percent, with the response to the one billion dollar deal seen as largely positive for the companies involved so far.

Smaller local rivals, however, are expected to feel the initial brunt of the tie-up, with ownership now simplified and a rejuvenated Cathay Pacific acquiring full access to the booming Chinese market.

Cathay Pacific previously flew to only two destinations in China -- Beijing and Xiamen -- but through Dragonair it has picked-up 23 Chinese cities, including the lucrative Hong Kong-Shanghai route.

US investment house Morgan Stanley noted near record oil prices and higher airport taxes were expected to further undermine the operations of China Eastern and China Southern airlines.

"We believe the combined Cathay-Air China-Dragonair franchise will represent a formidable threat to airlines operating in China and into the greater China markets, comprising China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macau," it said.

As a result, "we think the two Chinese airlines -- China Eastern and China Southern -- would have a difficult time competing with the combined Cathay-AirChina-Dragonair franchise in the China market."

US-based research house Globalysis, which tracks the tourism industry said in a report the deal would enable Cathay Pacific to become the largest airline group in the Asia-Pacific, ahead of Qantas and Singapore Airlines, and warned of troubled times ahead for the smaller players.

"Consolidation will bring a little more security as bigger airlines may have deeper pockets to reach into should tough times hit while economies of scale could help reduce operating costs and increase profitability, as we may see happening with the new Cathay Pacific," Globalysis said.

Crippling fuel prices resulted in Chinese airlines posting total losses of 267 million dollars in first quarter 2006, despite a booming market which is expected to double in size again from 2005 levels by 2010.

"Traffic in China and Hong Kong is growing at a nice rate every year and that growth rate is quite helpful ... it will stay that way in the lead-up to the (2008 Beijing) Olympics," Eckes said

In 2005 the Chinese aviation industry carried 138 million passengers and 3.035 million tons of freight. To meet demand, Beijing plans to increase the national fleet to 1,580 aircraft by 2010 from 863 and plough 17.4 billion dollars into airport infrastructure.

Globalysis said Cathay Pacific would likely outrank Singapore Airlines in terms of profitability once the tie-up with Dragonair and Air China goes through.

"With the acquisition of Dragonair, Cathay may soon be in a good position to eclipse Singapore Airlines to possibly become the most profitable airline in the world," Globalysis said.

It said Cathay Pacific's takeover of Dragonair may also trigger further industry consolidation in the coming years as the industry seeks to manage costs better, "especially with increasing risks from high and volatile oil prices, airborne diseases like SARS and bird flu, and terrorism."

Analysts said consolidation was more likely at the lower end of the market among smaller airlines, particularly in the low cost segment.

Eckes said the close association between flag carriers and national identity meant tie-ups among bigger airlines such as Malaysian Airlines or Thai Airways highly unlikely due to political opposition.

That theory has spawned market talk that Air China, over the medium-term, could be in a position to mount a bid for Cathay Pacific, in which it will acquire a 17.5 percent stake under the deal.

Most industry observers suggested this was fanciful at this stage while Eckes added: "I have heard the chatter."

[hkskyline]

UPS Eyes More Hong Kong Service
19 June 2006
Traffic World

With Chinese manufacturing booming, UPS is looking to increase its service between the United States and Hong Kong and beyond.

The company is asking the U.S. Department of Transportation for permission to fly one more weekly flight on the route and giving it for the first time the right to fly on to other countries from Hong Kong.

The route was opened in a 2002 aviation alliance between the United States and Hong Kong, a country with which the United States has no open skies agreement allowing free movement for airlines. The United States has pushed for one in recent years, but Hong Kong's response has been tepid.

The 2002 agreement created 64 airline frequencies for all-cargo carriers, and 10 of those remain open. UPS is applying for one of those 10, which would also allow it to fly on to other countries from Hong Kong.

"It would be in the public interest for UPS to be awarded these frequencies, which would otherwise go unused," UPS wrote in its application.

[hkskyline]

22 June 2006
PASSENGER NUMBERS AND CARGO REGISTER YEAR-ON-YEAR INCREASES
Dragonair Press Release

(HONG KONG) Both passenger numbers and cargo volume registered year-on-year increases in May, rising 7.7% and 5.2% respectively.

The airline flew 450,509 passengers in the month, compared with 418,435 one year earlier. The number was 6.4% lower than the record set in April.

"The Labour Day Golden Week holiday saw a high level of leisure travel to Hong Kong, from both individual and group travellers, and especially from some of the secondary Mainland cities, such as Changsha, Chengdu, Nanjing and Xian," said CEO Stanley Hui. "This highlights the success of the Individual Travel Scheme, which has made travel to Hong Kong from many inland cities easier."

Meanwhile, Dragonair carried 30,876 tonnes of cargo in May, up 5.2% on last year and 8.7% lower than in April.

"Capacity was significantly reduced for the week-long holiday period at the start of the month as factory production was curtailed during the holiday period; seasonally May is also a slow time for freight, as reflected by the lower volume over the last month," noted Mr. Hui.

He added: "We continue to face heavy cost pressures from the high price of oil. To help mitigate the impact, we were given approval to adjust up the passenger fuel surcharge with effect from 1 June. At the same time we continue to use and look for ways to help us conserve fuel in our daily operations."

[HongKongDisneyland]

珠海機場擬主攻廉價航空
2006-6-22



圖：機管局視珠海機場為第三條跑道，能吸納一批追求低票價的旅客來香港轉機

香港機場管理局消息人士透露，珠海機場的經營方式、定位將在發展廉價機票航空業務上，爭取更多內地新興的民營航空公司開辦航線，目標是春秋航空和鷹聯航空等，希望該機場能與深圳和廣州機場有效競爭，並成為香港機場的第三條跑道，吸納內地旅客經香港轉機。

大公報記者 陳德智 報道

【大公報訊】消息人士稱，機管局仍與珠海機場和有關政府部門磋商與該機場的合作方案，相信很快就有結果及簽訂協議。他形容，珠海機場就像香港國際機場的第三條跑道，以更優惠票價吸納追求廉價航空模式的旅遊人士使用，而香港與珠海機場地理位置接近，則有助為旅客提供方便的轉駁服務。

高速船接駁方便轉機

他又透露，機管局與珠海機場落實合作後，會開辦來往兩地的定期高速船服務，方便抵達兩地旅客穿梭兩個機場接駁航班；當港珠澳大橋建成後，聯繫兩機場將更方便。舉例說，例如一位從上海欲到歐洲的旅客，如果花不起錢坐港龍或東航經香港轉機的，可以先從出發地選乘票價較低的民營航空飛抵珠海後，再轉乘高速船到香港轉乘航班出國。但他不願評估票價可以降低的幅度。

他稱，目前春秋航空已開闢每天一班上海虹橋機場到珠海的航線，相信珠海機場費用較低的優點，日後能進一步吸引更多航空公司開辦新航線。他強調，珠海機場有一定優勢，因為它是珠三角西岸的主要機場，華南地區經濟發展蓬勃，商務和旅遊需求都不斷增長，再加上與香港機場接近，又能吸納一批嚮往低票價的旅遊人士以此途徑到香港轉機。

春秋航空票價低逾60%

根據春秋航空網頁上的資料，上海虹橋到珠海的航線，單程票價僅299元人民幣起（雙程則為598元人民幣），如果以乘搭港龍或東航來回香港及上海的特惠機票計算，最低票價亦要約1600港元，換言之春秋的票價低逾六成。該消息人士稱，珠海到香港的高速船一旦投入服務，單程船僅需一小時，對內地旅客來說，有很大的吸引力，對香港和珠海機場能達到雙贏效果。

據早前市場消息指出，國家商務部已原則同意機管局與珠海機場進行合作，雙方仍就合作的具體細節展開深入磋商，以確定最終合作方案，預期短期內可簽訂合作協議。消息人士證實，機管局擬取得珠海機場20年的管理權，但不肯透露實際金額。但有航空業界人士卻質疑，機管局私有化計劃遙遙無期，對籌集資金接管該機場有重大阻力。

珠海機場於一九九五年六月投入運作，投資總額60億元人民幣，設有一條4000米的跑道，設計年旅客處理能力1200萬人次，貨運吞吐量60萬噸。機場客運大樓建築面積9.16萬平方米，每小時可處理旅客數量5000人次。但該機場長期因客、貨流量不足而嚴重虧損，據稱目前負債金額高達40億元人民幣。

深圳機場面臨大壓力

業界分析稱，港珠機場合作後，原本微妙的珠三角五大機場的平衡、分工關係有機會被打破，另外三個機場（廣州、深圳和澳門）將面臨前所未有的經營壓力，特別是深圳機場將受到雙重擠壓，因為客源有機會被最接近的珠海機場搶奪。

Source : Takungpao

[HongKongDisneyland]

兩岸直航瘦了港澳 中國態度不再積極



江妍慧

第535期

22-Jun-2006

外界一向都認為兩岸直航最大的阻礙是台灣政府，其實是兩岸直航勢必對香港經濟造成相當衝擊，導致中國政府不甚積極，這才是兩岸直航開放時程的關鍵變數。



在「國共經貿論壇」後，兩岸交流傾向開放的氣氛也愈來愈熱絡，近來為了「直航條例」，立院不同黨派立委也展開攻防戰，一動一靜都牽引著期盼兩岸儘速開放直航民眾的神經。然而，外界一向都認為兩岸直航最大的阻礙是台灣政府，但其實近年兩岸間透過香港轉口的貿易往來相當頻繁，間接對香港經濟有一定的支撐力道，兩岸直航勢必對香港經濟造成相當衝擊；在中國尚未想出因應對策之前，對於兩岸直航的實際態度不甚積極，單靠台灣這邊努力推動，兩岸也不見得能順利直航。

兩岸轉口貿易香港扮演要角

十幾年來，兩岸間的關係逐漸由緊張趨向和緩，經濟活動的往來也逐漸頻繁，台商赴中國投資的人數與金額都持續增加，而在無法直接通航下，兩岸之間的貿易往來都是透過香港來轉口，間接也對香港經濟的發展助益不少。

根據陸委會的統計資料，一九八四年台灣對香港的出口金額為二二．二四億美元，其中，轉口至中國的金額約四．二五億美元，占台灣對香港出口總金額將近二成；當年度台灣由香港進口金額為六．二四億元，其中，約兩成是由中國轉口而來。

然而到二○○五年，台灣對香港的出口金額已成長到二一五．六七億美元，其中，轉口至中國的金額已占將近八成，達一七○．五五億美元，由香港進口的部分，總金額已達六五．○四億元，其中由中國轉口而來的部分，也已超過四成。至今年一月，台灣出口經由香港轉口至中國的金額，占台灣出口至香港的總金額已突破八成，由中國經由香港進口的金額比重，也已達四三．六％，顯然兩岸間的轉口貿易已然在香港經濟的發展過程中扮演重要角色。

只是中間據點未創實質收益

在人員部分，商務方面，基於投資中國金額逾一百萬美元者，必須先於第三地設立公司的規定下，過去以來香港一直扮演著台商赴中國投資的中介角色。根據經濟部投審會統計資料，一九九一年至一九九七年赴中國投資的台商，於香港設立公司者約占對中國投資案件的六成，顯示在一九九七年以前，香港一直是台灣廠商進入中國的主要門戶。然而，一九九八年此數字已降低至五成，此後更逐年下降。

至於觀光旅遊，近年國人出國旅遊的目的地（或首站抵達地），都是以去香港的人數最多，在人數逐年攀升下，去年度赴香港旅遊的人次已達二五六萬人次，占總出國人次七七八．一萬人的三二．九％，較上年度增加三七％。根據香港旅遊發展局的統計，台灣旅客抵港人數逐年成長，一九九四年以後台灣更成為外人赴港的最大來源國（占總抵港國際旅客的二成以上），每年在香港消費二十幾億美元；然而，其中有三成以上的旅客都是由香港轉往中國觀光的旅客，在香港並未創造多大的收益，使得抵港旅客每人每日平均消費金額逐年下降，由一九九七年的二四五．九美元，降至去年的一百多美元。

兩岸一旦直航港將喪失光環

過去因為身為轉口港的關鍵地位，讓香港經濟獲得源源不絕的成長養分，一旦兩岸開放直航，香港機場管理局估計，每年若有約二七○萬人次的台灣旅客不再經過香港，僅機場稅之收益已損失港幣逾二億元，更不用說香港的優勢地位將一夕間失去光環，對中國經濟也是損失；中國在評估兩岸直航的利益時，也不得不一併考慮這部分的損失。

之前在全球景氣衰退的影響下，香港的經濟受到衝擊，尤其在一九九七年之後，香港受中國磁吸效應影響，經濟出現崩盤式的衰退，不僅房地產跌幅達五成以上，失業率大幅竄升，更嚴重的是，香港人週休二日假期，往往大排長龍到中國的深圳、羅湖等地渡假消費，甚至置產，這種消費內地化的現象，嚴重打擊了香港的內需產業，使香港百業蕭條，商店紛紛面臨倒閉的命運。

這使得中國不得不用簽訂CEPA（更緊密貿易關係安排），來帶動香港經濟成長。之後中國開放帶來的大量觀光人潮，雖然的確為香港經濟帶來新刺激；然而，觀光利多可以是一時的刺激因素，對觀光資源有限的香港來說，終究不是長遠的方法。

中國當然也清楚這一點，面臨兩岸直航後香港經濟可能面臨逐漸蕭條的局面，目前僅能又宣布開放四個城市的居民可以赴香港自由行，使中國適用自由行的城市增加到三十八個，預料這四個新增的城市，可帶來一三五萬個旅客，再為香港帶進六十億港元旅遊收入；但這仍不足以讓香港經濟長期健康成長，在還為妥善的因應對策而頭痛下，中國對於兩岸直航的態度不甚積極。

影響國內產業政府考慮深遠

台灣許多期盼兩岸直航的民眾，著眼點都是在於旅運時間與成本的節省，尤其是台商企業，直航對於其運輸成本降低的效益顯著，可以提升企業經營及總體資源運用效率。

然而，政府要考慮的則是全面性的影響。除了提升企業經營效率屬於正面效應外，兩岸經濟問題因中國與台灣在制度上的差異、經濟規模的差距，以及中國政策干預等等因素，存在各種失衡現象及模糊地帶，無法用簡單的市場運作法則及一般經濟評估出絕對的有利或有弊。在開放直航及相關的經貿往來後，若不能矯正失衡問題及排除變數，則很可能擴大對國內產業衝擊，加速資金、技術、人才流向中國，並導致經濟成長減緩及失業問題的惡化。

如中國物品進口增加及中國台商產品回銷，可能衝擊國內產業，導致關廠及失業增加，並造成通貨緊縮問題。而台商因此擴大赴中國投資，可能造成資金向中國進一步傾斜，及產業技術及高科技人才流向中國，進而排擠國內投資及減緩產業升級。且隨著人口加速向中國移動，赴中國旅遊、消費乃至購買房地產，可能造成內需減少及房地產價格的下降；長期將導致國內經濟成長減緩及失業問題的持續惡化。

除了經濟影響之外，兩岸直航等於台灣門戶完全對中國洞開，在中國尚未放棄對台武力攻擊、釋出完全善意下，國家安全實堪憂慮。而兩岸人民生活條件與水準仍存在不小的差距，兩岸直接頻繁交流恐對於台灣人民的生活水準造成相當程度的威脅；如之前香港因為緊鄰中國而引發SARS疫情的流行，進而衝擊經濟表現，就是值得台灣戒慎恐懼的前例。

擔心衝擊香港中國不甚積極

當然，政府也並非因此就完全否定兩岸直航，而是盡量努力擴大正面效應，減少負面衝擊。也就是必須保持經濟發展的主體性，利用產業發展的利基，結合跨國企業的力量，加速產業轉型升級。

因為對於中國經濟的磁吸效應及逐漸成為「世界工廠」的趨勢，台灣也無法長期有效採用防堵台商赴中國投資的策略，最後終將接受必須將中國納為產品製造及行銷全球市場的重要據點之一；但台灣經濟核心競爭力在於製造業的基礎、研發創新及運籌管理能力，若能加速產業轉型升級，並在兩岸建立更合於風險考量的產業分工，強化台灣的生產基地，才能提升總體經濟競爭力，確保經濟長期發展的優勢。

過去政府始終堅持爭取時間做努力，不願在準備尚未完備就貿然開放直航；而在努力多時後，政府的態度自然也逐漸傾向開放。但反而是中國，香港經濟可能發生的問題將造成相當程度的困擾，中國政府不甚積極的態度才是兩岸直航開放時程的關鍵變數。

Source : New Taiwan

[hkskyline]

Air China to buy out CNAC unit
Deal has a value of up to $412 million
Cathay stake to rise
By Jeffrey Ng
23 June 2006
The Wall Street Journal Asia

Hong Kong -- AIR CHINA confirmed plans Thursday to take its subsidiary China National Aviation Co. private in a deal valued at as much as HK$3.2 billion (US$412 million), setting in motion a larger transaction that will allow Cathay Pacific Airways to expand its operations in mainland China.

The buyout is part and parcel of a far-reaching agreement announced June 9 that calls for CNAC to sell its 43.3% stake in Hong Kong Dragon Airlines, known as Dragonair, to Cathay Pacific. Under that agreement, Cathay Pacific also acquires the remaining shares in Dragonair from two other companies.

The entire deal, valued at HK$8.22 billion, gives Cathay a long-sought network in mainland China, where several foreign airlines have leapfrogged ahead of it in a battle for market share in one of aviation's hottest markets.

Air China's offer to take CNAC private satisfies a request by CNAC shareholder On Ling Investment, which holds a 9.75% stake in the company. On Ling said it would vote in favor of the sale of CNAC's stake in Dragonair only if Beijing-based Air China agreed to take CNAC private at HK$2.80 a share.

CNAC's shares rose 2.9% to HK$2.70 Thursday, while shares in Air China gained 1.7% to HK$2.95. CNAC's share price has soared 37% since Air China first said it was considering a buyout on June 9.

As part of the deal to take full control of Dragonair, Cathay had agreed to double its stake in Air China to 20%, while Air China would take a 10.16% share in Cathay, Hong Kong's largest airline. After selling its Dragonair stake, CNAC itself will have a 7.34% stake in Cathay.

But following the CNAC buyout, Air China's total stake in Cathay will rise to 17.5%, and Cathay's share in Air China will fall to 17.5% after the flag carrier's planned Class A-share listing at a later date, thus creating an equal cross-shareholding of the two airlines.

Karen Chan, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group, said the deal was attractive for investors in CNAC because the buyout price includes a 22% premium to CNAC stock's fair value of HK$2.30 a share. CNAC said it will book a gain of about HK$2.96 billion following the deal.

Apart from its stake in Dragonair, CNAC also owns 51% of carrier Air Macau, which flies between Taiwan and mainland China. CNAC also operates ground handling and catering units. Analysts said these assets could complement some of Air China's existing operations and help it cut costs.

"Air China will be majority owner of Air Macau after this deal, giving it important air rights [between Macau and Taiwan] that it doesn't currently have," said Stone Shi, an analyst at SHK Financial Ltd. "Investors are buying on the idea that the Macau rights will help boost passenger traffic for the airline."

Air China said it expects to complete the buyout by the fourth quarter, after which CNAC would become a wholly owned unit of Air China.

[HongKongDisneyland]

港 府 與 國 家 航 空 總 局 就 開 放 中 港 天 空 談 判 達 成 共 識 ， 香 港 將 成 為 全 球 航 空 樞 紐 。

----------------------------------------------------
班 次 大 增 　 廉 價 航 空 公 司 將 入 侵
中 港 開 放 天 空 料 掀 票 價 戰

【 本 報 訊 】 國 泰 吞 併 港 龍 銳 意 雄 霸 內 地 市 場 之 際 ， 港 府 與 國 家 航 空 總 局 就 開 放 中 港 天 空 談 判 達 成 共 識 ， 於 上 周 六 簽 署 協 議 ， 現 有 香 港 飛 內 地 約 40 個 城 市 航 點 ， 大 部 份 會 大 幅 增 班 ， 近 乎 無 限 班 次 ， 又 容 許 更 多 航 空 公 司 加 入 競 爭 。 航 空 界 人 士 預 料 ， 廉 價 航 空 公 司 會 進 入 內 地 市 場 ， 令 國 泰 和 港 龍 不 易 獨 霸 中 港 航 空 服 務 ， 隨 時 掀 起 機 票 價 格 戰 。 港 府 將 於 今 日 至 本 周 四 全 國 政 協 主 席 賈 慶 林 訪 港 期 間 公 布 上 述 消 息 。 　 記 者 ： 呂 焯 均

本 港 與 內 地 航 空 業 發 展 急 速 ， 2000 年 雙 方 首 次 簽 署 正 式 的 航 空 協 議 時 ， 香 港 與 內 地 城 市 航 點 只 有 約 20 個 ， 至 今 已 增 至 約 40 個 ， 現 時 每 周 航 班 總 數 達 900 班 。 外 國 旅 遊 及 商 務 客 經 香 港 往 返 內 地 的 增 長 迅 速 ， 他 們 尤 其 喜 歡 選 乘 香 港 的 航 空 公 司 ， 而 近 至 廣 州 也 有 內 地 的 南 方 航 空 公 司 提 供 定 期 航 班 服 務 ， 他 們 主 要 是 與 外 國 航 空 公 司 合 作 ， 南 航 由 廣 州 飛 港 後 ， 安 排 旅 客 轉 乘 外 國 航 班 。


中 港 航 空 發 展 急 速
近 年 中 港 兩 地 均 有 新 航 空 公 司 加 入 市 場 ， 香 港 方 面 便 有 港 聯 及 中 富 ； 內 地 除 全 國 性 大 型 航 空 公 司 中 國 民 航 、 南 方 航 空 、 中 國 國 際 航 空 ， 現 還 有 上 海 、 廈 門 、 四 川 等 地 區 航 空 公 司 。 不 過 ， 受 到 班 次 限 制 ， 加 上 需 求 量 不 斷 上 升 ， 機 票 價 格 未 能 如 國 際 航 空 市 場 般 有 較 大 下 調 幅 度 。



港 成 全 球 航 空 樞 紐
消 息 說 ， 港 府 最 近 與 國 家 航 空 總 局 完 成 最 新 一 輪 航 空 談 判 ， 取 得 「 大 躍 進 」 ， 並 於 上 周 六 簽 署 協 議 。 雙 方 同 意 大 幅 放 寬 現 有 的 航 空 服 務 ， 除 部 份 熱 門 城 市 的 機 場 容 量 難 以 增 加 航 班 外 ， 其 餘 大 部 份 航 點 都 可 大 增 航 班 ， 消 息 形 容 放 寬 程 度 近 乎 無 限 制 班 次 。 現 時 本 港 與 英 美 等 地 ， 也 有 類 似 無 限 制 班 次 的 協 議 。
談 判 另 一 個 重 要 成 果 是 容 許 更 多 航 空 公 司 加 入 競 爭 。 消 息 說 ， 容 許 新 的 航 空 公 司 飛 內 地 城 市 ， 必 定 會 吸 引 廉 價 航 空 公 司 加 入 市 場 ， 掀 起 機 票 價 格 競 爭 的 新 局 面 。 新 協 議 將 會 奠 定 本 港 作 為 全 球 航 空 樞 紐 的 地 位 ， 吸 引 中 港 和 外 國 航 空 公 司 開 辦 更 多 航 班 。
理 工 大 學 酒 店 及 旅 遊 業 管 理 學 院 助 理 教 授 區 日 民 相 信 ， 放 寬 航 班 及 航 空 公 司 數 目 將 會 增 加 市 場 競 爭 ， 令 票 價 下 調 ， 尤 其 對 旅 行 社 有 利 ， 因 旅 行 團 的 日 期 固 定 ， 不 用 顧 慮 新 航 空 公 司 的 班 次 較 稀 疏 。

Source : Apple Daily News

[hkskyline]

HK's Dragonair cancels plane lease from Taiwan's China Airlines - report
27 June 2006
AFX Asia

TAIPEI (XFN-ASIA) - Hong Kong's Dragon Airlines Ltd (Dragonair) has called off a plan to lease a Boeing 747 freighter from Taiwan's China Airlines next month, the Commercial Times reported, without naming a source.

The decision follows this month's announcement that Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd is acquiring Dragonair.

Dragonair in March leased one freighter from China Airlines for one year. It was not clear whether this lease will be terminated earlier than scheduled, the report added.

[hkskyline]

Hong Kong airline plans launch
By Jeffrey Ng
30 June 2006
Dow Jones

HONG KONG -- Oasis Hong Kong Airlines plans to launch in October with flights to London, and the start-up carrier remains confident it can make money despite the recent shake-up in Hong Kong's aviation business, its co-founder and chief executive said.

"We start with a much lower cost base compared with large carriers. We start with new ideas," said Chief Executive Stephen Miller. He declined to elaborate on how much lower its costs will be.

"We feel very strongly that we can compete with the traditional airlines on the main trunk routes out of Hong Kong to Europe and North America," Mr. Miller said in an interview.

Hong Kong's top carrier, Cathay Pacific Airways, recently agreed to buy out smaller Hong Kong Dragon Airlines. Cathay has also been forging closer ties with Air China.

Analysts say Cathay's buyout of Dragonair will make it more difficult for new entrants such as Oasis to take a reasonable share of the market.

Mr. Miller, who has worked for more than 30 years in the airline industry, disagrees. He helped to found Dragonair and served as its first chief executive from 1985 to 1988.

Oasis was founded by entrepreneur Raymond Lee and his wife, Priscilla Lee, who own 60% of the airline. Other investors include Allan Wong, chairman of local electronics firm VTech Holdings Ltd., with a 15% stake.

Oasis will focus on long-haul routes and adopt some of the business practices of low-cost carriers, including U.S.-based Southwest Airlines, though passengers can count on hot meals during the long transcontinental flights.

The first Oasis route will be to a secondary airport, London Gatwick. By flying there instead of London Heathrow, the prime business-traveler hub in the U.K., Oasis can connect passengers to other European cities with British low-cost carrier EasyJet.

He said Oasis has been in continuing talks with the U.K. airline on more convenient arrangements such as code-sharing opportunities, and is counting on low fares to lure passengers.

Oasis has just taken delivery of two used Boeing 747-400 aircraft and aims to increase its fleet to five Boeing 747-400s by the end of next year.

The airline plans to launch its Hong Kong-Gatwick routes daily for as low as HK$2,000 (US$257.46) for a round-trip economy-class ticket, if customers book three months in advance. Mr. Miller declined to say how many seats would be available at the best Oasis price.

Oasis plans next to fly to Oakland, California, though it hasn't set a launch date for the route.

[hkskyline]

Hong Kong Express Airways Launches Flights to Chiang Mai
Corporate Press Release

Hong Kong, June 22nd, 2006…With the successful landing of its new 76-seat Embraer 170 aircraft at Chiang Mai International Airport this afternoon, Hong Kong Express Airways has become the only airline to currently offer direct, scheduled flights between its Hong Kong home and the popular Thai leisure destination. Operating two return flights per week - every Thursday and Sunday, passengers can now enjoy uninterrupted direct flights to and from Northern Thailand’s premier hot spot scheduled perfectly to enable both weekend and extended getaways.

“We are particularly pleased to launch this new route to such a fantastic leisure destination. Being the only airline to currently offer flights on this route places us firmly on the map for travellers looking for a convenient, hassle-free break away,” says Hong Kong Express Airways General Manager Sales, Simon Sin. “As significant as the Taichung charter service we launched earlier this month was for us, today’s Chiang Mai route launch is giant step forward in our expansion beyond mainland China.”

Located in Northern Thailand, Chiang Mai has long been a popular getaway destination, which thanks to a flourishing spa industry and growth in eco-tourism has recently become one of the hottest destinations in SE Asia. Set amidst lush tropical landscape, Chiang Mai offers a wide variety of activities, sights and attractions for travellers of all ages and interests.

Hong Kong Express Airways currently operates six scheduled flights each day between Hong Kong and three cities in Mainland China – Hangzhou, Ningbo and Nanjing. The airline will launch scheduled flights between Hong Kong and Chongqing on July 31st 2006.

[hkskyline]

Virgin Airline hiring 50% more flight attendants for expansion
Apple Daily News
3 July 2006

Virgin Airlines is hiring over 100 flight attendants in Hong Kong. The hiring is done to accompany Virgin's move to launch more flights in November and early next year.

With over three years of working experience, a flight attendant joining Virgin can expect a monthly salary and fringe benefit of HK$14,000. At present, Virgin has 180 flight attendants in Hong Kong. In November 2006, Virgin will be flying three more weekly flights from Hong Kong to London, up from seven weekly flights now. In February 2007, Virgin will add more, flying 14 weekly flights from Hong Kong to London.

[hkth]

From news.gov.hk:
HK, Mainland air routes to grow

[hkskyline]

Hong Kong-China air liberalisation pact welcomed

HONG KONG, July 3, 2006 (AFP) - Hong Kong and China will sign an aviation liberalisation pact that will see more routes open between the two and a relaxation of limits on passenger and cargo, a government statement said Monday.

The move has been welcomed by Hong Kong's flag carrier Cathay Pacific, which is expected to win rights to fly the coveted Hong Kong-Shanghai route it was forced to relinquish 16 years ago.

A joint statement from the Economic Development and Labour Bureau in Hong Kong and the General Administration of Civil Aviation of China said talks on renewing the pair's Air Service Arrangement had been concluded.

Hong Kong economic development secretary Stephen Ip hailed the deal as a boost for the city.

"The new arrangement would not only strengthen the aviation links between Hong Kong and the mainland, it will also enhance the competitiveness of Hong Kong International Airport and strengthen Hong Kong's status as an international and regional aviation centre," he said in the statement.

Under the terms of the pact, from winter next year each side will be able to designate three airlines to operate passenger and cargo flights between Hong Kong and Chinese cities. Another airline will be able to operate all-cargo flights.

It will also see the expansion of the arrangement, which presently covers 45 routes, to a further 11.

Capacity constraints will be relaxed on 35 of the routes between winter 2006 and summer 2007, while capacity for the remaining routes will be substantially increased.

Although the new routes are being kept confidential, a source close to the deal said it would include the Tibetan capital of Lhasa and XiXuang in Yunnan province.

Among those to see capacity restrictions scrapped will be the lucrative Hong Kong-Shanghai route. As Cathay is Hong Kong's only major airline it is all but assured of winning back the marquee route.

"Cathay welcomes the outcome of the latest discussions ... which provides for an expansion of the air services arrangements, and the opportunity for the airline to resume passenger services to Shanghai after an absence of 16 years," the airline said in a statement.

Shanghai accounts for more than a third of all traffic into the mainland and Cathay has been tirelessly campaigning to win back the route since it had to relinquish the service to rival Dragonair in a share restructuring move in 1990.

Dragonair, which was recently bought out by Cathay in an 8 billion Hong Kong dollar deal, also welcomed the move.

"It will offer more opportunities to airlines and provide us with greater growth potential in the mainland market," said Dragonair chief executive Stanley Hui.