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Old August 7th, 2006, 01:18 PM   #41
JGG
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eXSBass
Wow. That is very promising. I guess they're taking the no nonesense approach. Get as much done as possible whilst they can. Then, when they get a tennant, bada boom! No messing about. Straight to errecting the cores.
I think we may be witnessing some interesting poker game. As there is the risk that there may not be enough demand for three new skyscrapers (Heron, Leadenhall and Difa), these three parties all try to be ready first. Fact is that the Heron site buildings will be empty by next May, Leadenhall by January. If at about that time Difa signs up a client and gets its scheme off the ground, we may actually see all three of them going up at the same time because it would be hard for British Land or Heron to get new leases on old buildings. The only thing they may do is "warehouse" them for the next cycle bu that is pretty expensive plus they may have to renew their planning permission. So Heron and Leadenhall look pretty certain, Difa is still a question mark but it is also clear they are not out of the running yet!
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Old August 7th, 2006, 01:27 PM   #42
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That's very feasible reasoning there. After all, the first victim of this poker game is, as we've all seen, Minerva!
But question is, who'll want all that space and the attention DIFA carries as being the pinnacle of the City?
The company will have alot of power. But maybe too much power for their own good.
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Old August 7th, 2006, 02:14 PM   #43
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Anybody fancy having a word with the boys from keltbray next time there passing
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Old August 7th, 2006, 03:42 PM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eXSBass
That's very feasible reasoning there. After all, the first victim of this poker game is, as we've all seen, Minerva!
But question is, who'll want all that space and the attention DIFA carries as being the pinnacle of the City?
The company will have alot of power. But maybe too much power for their own good.
UBS who are currently based at Broadgate, are rumoured to have a 1m sq foot requirement in the not too distant future
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Old August 7th, 2006, 07:46 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ismail
UBS who are currently based at Broadgate, are rumoured to have a 1m sq foot requirement in the not too distant future
Perhaps they should speak to minerva.
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this has decended into farce...
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Old August 7th, 2006, 09:27 PM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ismail
UBS who are currently based at Broadgate, are rumoured to have a 1m sq foot requirement in the not too distant future
Hilarious! MINERVA ARE YOU LISTENING!?

I doubt it somehow.
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Old August 7th, 2006, 09:40 PM   #47
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Only the elite can survive, as each building drops out at least it gives more potential tenents to the rest still remaining, its not all bad, but in an ideal world every company would be queuing up to take space in the city, so everything could go ahead
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Old August 8th, 2006, 12:50 AM   #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fragmentor
but in an ideal world every company would be queuing up to take space in the city, so everything could go ahead
Not really. Canary Wharf and Westminster in many repects have become more attractive than the City. I keep repeating this, but if the City doesn't change strategy soon it will go down the road of Lower Manhattan. Just going for a naive floor surface maximizing strategy will and is backfiring. Replacing buildings like Drapers Gardens by buildings that may have a offer a bigger floor surface but do not contribute anything at all to the urban fabric is what will bring the city down. For the next three years all offices surrounding Drapers will get disturbed by noise and incountable trucks driving by... for what? Just because some developer is able to squeeze a bit more space out of the site at the expense of everybody else because he does not have to pay for all of us who suffer from these needless construction works. People in the city are happy to put up with the inconveniences of contruction when an eyesore gets pulled down to be repaced by a landmark building. Unfortunately 80% of the construction activity in the City is not about that. In the meantime, the City completely neglects to maintain its streetscape and public infrastructure. The streets in the city still look the same as 40 years ago, just with more potholes. Any small provincial town in Continental Europe has a more attractive streetscape than the City now.
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Old August 8th, 2006, 01:09 PM   #49
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Heron - Leadenhall - Bishopsgate: Banana dancing time



This morning I was lucky and was able to talk to workmen on all three sites.

1) Bischopsgate: Keltbray has started the piling: three piles go in. And with a big smile on his face the Keltbray foreman told me "and then we take this building down".

2) Leadehall: there are two hoardings now, SE and NW corner. They are making boreholes for investigating the soil structure and putting in the foundations. 18 m deep.

3) Heron Tower. It's official, the works just in front of the building are no longer exclusively Thames Water works. The site on Bishopsgate is not working for Thames Water but for Skanska/MACE and have started redirecting the services, particularly the sewer.

Of course these prep works are not a guarantee the buildings will go up, but at least they have started the works on all three!!!!
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Old August 8th, 2006, 02:02 PM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JGG
Not really. Canary Wharf and Westminster in many repects have become more attractive than the City.
I agree that the City have it in their heads that this is purely a floorspace fight! If that were the case we might as well give up the fight and move to some desert city. It is really about knowledge and human capital, it always is and in this respect the City has rested on it laurels due to the historical importance of the City in terms of finances and its interesting urban scape.

However it is now creaking at the seams and Im not sure how much longer people will put up with their miserable trudge into the City. In terms of street experience thank goodness for the Victorians as this is probably has safe guarded the City until now. The City has responded with some exciting high-rise architecture (brought on about the constraints of St Pauls I think rather than any overall strategy to differentiate itself although that is now hinted at)

but the low-rise office stuff is all over the place! Interesting streets with history and its roots deep into the beginnings of London are mere alleyways of air vents, fire exits, loading bays and inhabited by the huddled groups of smokers. I think it is interesting to note that people on a sunny lunch time are seen crowded in church yards and other micro spaces, important a bare minimum.

There are hints at changes in attitude towards quality spaces but it is all very haphazard and merely dished out as token gestures by developers rather than some sort of overall vision that developers fit into. The City desperately needs to start thinking about the experience of the people who use the place.
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Old August 8th, 2006, 02:05 PM   #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JGG
Heron - Leadenhall - Bishopsgate: Banana dancing time



This morning I was lucky and was able to talk to workmen on all three sites.

1) Bischopsgate: Keltbray has started the piling: three piles go in. And with a big smile on his face the Keltbray foreman told me "and then we take this building down".
very interesting, looks like there is a race on
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Old August 8th, 2006, 03:10 PM   #52
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I know there are still uncertainties surrounding these 3 projects, so we must not get carried away, but....... Heron, Leadenhall, Bishopsgate all with preparatory works underway - this is fantastic.
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Old August 8th, 2006, 03:49 PM   #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Varenukha
I know there are still uncertainties surrounding these 3 projects, so we must not get carried away, but....... Heron, Leadenhall, Bishopsgate all with preparatory works underway - this is fantastic.
IMO it's a race.... they all want to be able to say to potential tenants that they are going to be ready within the same timeframe. But with the Heron and Leadenhall sites empty early next year there is no easy way back for them. I am happy Difa has not given up yet. The losers in this game may be some groundscraper projects that are still in the planning process. Let's hope!
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Old August 8th, 2006, 04:36 PM   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JGG
The losers in this game may be some groundscraper projects that are still in the planning process. Let's hope!
No they won't. It takes longer to build a skyscraper than it does a groundscraper, and the ones going through the planning process now will probably be ready at the same time, if not earlier. If this is the case, tenants will simply fill them up, leaving the skyscrapers empty, and making more developers wary of building towers as they will remain empty until the groundscrapers are completely filled.

If anything, this race is too little too late. If developers had been less wary two years ago we'd be halfway through this race by now, with cores on the skyline and more potential tenants considering moving into a better standard of office simply because they knew they were available.

Of course, the fact the race it seems has begun is good. I just hope it doesn't result in a massive glut in 2008/9, meaning there'll be no new proposals after this block, and maybe some of the proposals we see in 2007 fall by the wayside because of the abundance of office space.
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Old August 8th, 2006, 04:57 PM   #55
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Yes but we will still be left with one of the best skylines in Europe. Anyway I think the main reson most firms don't consider skyscrapers in the city or anywhere but CW is because there is currently only 2, they probably doubt these projects will take off. There have been lots of cancelled skyscrapers outside CW and as I said only 2 actually built.

I think once they actually see these things rising they will realise that London is turning high rise, and projects are going to get off the ground. Literally.

The ones that are 95% definate are:

The Shard (Has it's pre-let practically secured)

Heron (Spec build)

Leadenhall (Spec build)

Beetham (Providing it gets PP it's a cert)

Fenchurch (Spec build)

Riverside South (5 Churchill place is gone, that only leaves 10 CP and 15CS which KPMG are already in talks for. This is providing the design isn't changed to partly resi/hotel, if it is CW will have to get Heron Quays, North Quay or Wood Wharf off the ground or they will be left with nothing to fill for a couple of years)

St Georges (Taking their sweet time, but I have no doubt it will fill up as soon as the apartments go on sale)

I am also quite optimistic now about the Vauxhall twins, I doubt the mayor would let the planners cancel what looks like such a high quality scheme given his new powers over the cities planning department
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Old August 8th, 2006, 05:51 PM   #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DarJoLe
No they won't. It takes longer to build a skyscraper than it does a groundscraper, and the ones going through the planning process now will probably be ready at the same time, if not earlier. If this is the case, tenants will simply fill them up, leaving the skyscrapers empty, and making more developers wary of building towers as they will remain empty until the groundscrapers are completely filled.

If anything, this race is too little too late. If developers had been less wary two years ago we'd be halfway through this race by now, with cores on the skyline and more potential tenants considering moving into a better standard of office simply because they knew they were available.
It depends... when it comes to smaller groundscrapers and bigger ones that have already started (Drapers), yes I agree, but there are three big schemes that may suffer from this IMO, Walbrook Square (which still needs to go to planning and that may take a while), Cannon Street Station, and the development that they are planning just opposite to Heron (just south of it, other side of Camomile street). Also Cannon Street (Hines) may not start construction that rapidly. I heard they still need to agree with Network Rail on quite a few things, and those guys aren't the fastest in the world. Yet, I would be suprpirsed if they didn't build that, even without a secured tenant, on top of a train station is a fantastic location.
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Old August 8th, 2006, 06:19 PM   #57
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If the City of London were wise they would turn all that soon to be office space glut area from Queen Victoria street down to the Thames into high class residential, retail, art and small offices and use the urban dereliction on the Eastern and Northern fringes for a safety valve should it be needed
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Old August 8th, 2006, 09:39 PM   #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JGG
1) Bishopsgate: Keltbray has started the piling: three piles go in. And with a big smile on his face the Keltbray foreman told me "and then we take this building down".
Keltbray Ltd are specifically ground prep and demolition contractors who are undertaking a shed load of projects in London at the moment (they did Bow Bells House, and are currently removing Drapers Gardens). If they are in situ for early prep work it doesn't take a huge genius to suggest that they have the main demolition contract for Crosby Court. No confirmation on the projects or news section of the website, but I like the foreman's quote of 'and then we take this building down'. Postively excited at that news.

As stated earlier, no guarantee that the tower will actually be built, but its sure as hell a good sign that DIFA are prepping the site.
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Old August 9th, 2006, 01:13 PM   #59
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Further good news about Difa...


1) They continue to sell of buildings from their Fund 1 (which is the fund that holds the Bischopsgate building). Of course some of this increased liquidity can go to dissatisfied shareholders who sell their fund shares, but Difa seems to have an unexpected boon from large pension funds piling into the German market which allows them to create that liquidity without having to take losses. In any case it allows them to generate the required equity for the Bischopsgate tower.

2) I talked to the receptionist in the current building. She told me everybody will be out by March next year. Some floors are already empty and all current leaseholders have been given notice. She did not know when they would pull down the building but was very clear that come March, that building will be empty. By the way, there is also a nice exhibition there on the Difa tower.

So to me it seems we have three serious contenders in Heron, British Land Leadenhall and now also Difa.
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Old August 9th, 2006, 01:26 PM   #60
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You, sir, are a GOD!
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