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Old August 17th, 2013, 05:14 AM   #16201
Pansori
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Filipe1 View Post
Woops my fault for asking such a question.. i guess we should all know everything about china..god forbid i ask a question
Sorry, it's 3:11 a.m. here and I'm just about to go to bed which is why I won't write an essay on that (normally I just might). It was pretty much answered in my previous post though. Projects that include thousands of units in one location cannot get filled in an instant. This is something that is not typical and has never happened in the US (or anywhere else) which is why some (including the 'experts') get too excited about it while ignoring the fundamental reasons for that. Hope that makes it more clear.

And if some are talking about 'empty housing' I would love to see numbers and other hard data. For instance percentage of housing units that are vacant after 3 years of completion and with a legitimate source such as government statistics department or surveys at the very least.
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Old August 17th, 2013, 05:16 AM   #16202
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
Sorry, it's 3:11 a.m. here and I'm just about to go to bed which is why I won't write an essay on that (normally I just might). It was pretty much answered in my previous post though. Projects that include thousands of units in one location cannot get filled in an instant. This is something that is not typical for US (or anywhere else) which is why some (including the 'experts') get too excited about it while ignoring the fundamental reasons for that. Hope that makes it more clear.
thanks go to sleep lol
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Old August 17th, 2013, 06:31 AM   #16203
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Relax. Seriously

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
Wrong. Everything.

Firstly, China is not a 'totalitarian' society.

Secondly, there is nothing (and will not be) of the 'same that hammered American economy'. Takes 30 minutes of research to see why. Not gonna explain here.

Thirdly, supertalls are virtually all offices/hotels and office vacancy rates are at perhaps all time low. In fact, dangerously low in some cities.

Fourthly, those kind of stories on 'ghost towns' were popular on American and other TV stations because they look quite amazing on the surface. By now they became somewhat boring and a laughing material. Yet, as I can see, there still are poeple who buy them. True there are some empty buildings after completion of some projects. But those 'observers' ignore one fundamental reason for that: the fact that residential (or any other for that matter) developments in Chinese cities are built 'by miles' in the first place. There simply has never been such development patterns and scale (building entire urban district in one go) in America or anywhere else which is why the 'experts' and 'analysts' who create such stories have simply no idea what they're talking about because they simply have never seen that happening and never bothered to look into it because they 'know better'. Their limited minds and worldviews simply do not allow them to comprehend the idea that things in fact can be and aredone in a different way than what they are used to see at home.

Of course if you built thousands of units in one go in one location they will stay empty for longer than a dozen of units in one location. This is simply common sense and basic logic which some of those 'analysts' are unable to crunch.

There are challenges and even a probability of a slowdown but such 'insights' are completely out of touch with reality. And they are still having a hangover after the tirade of negative stories on China's HSR a couple of years back which by now has been proven to be a complete bluff and sham journalism at its worst. Just how pathetic. What's next? A huge asteroid is flying towards China?
Your London worldview and your obvious sensitivity to this subject being pointed out is telling. You sound like the people in America swearing up and down the economy was "just fine" in 2008. Until it wasn't.

By all definition of the word China is indeed totalitarian. You are simply wrong.

It took me perhaps five seconds to verify the veracity of reports of these overbuilt residential areas in secondary cities throughout China. Sources include your own British media. But hey what do they know? Only you are in the *know* right?

My observation. And we will see who is correct is that after this spate of buildings are complete we will probably have to wait before we see more as China weathers a slowdown.

Your sarcasm is what is "pathetic" here. But again no one else knows anything on this planet but you right? After all you sitting in your ivory perch in London.

I am not trashing China or criticizing them. I love the architecture and the astounding construction. My observation is legitimate. Now judging by your tone you will probably sit for hours brooding while calculating a peevish reply.
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Old August 17th, 2013, 06:33 AM   #16204
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Why so serious. You even use the "title" function when posting lolz. Get your PHD in macro eceonomics before you talk about these please.
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Old August 17th, 2013, 06:37 AM   #16205
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Its not only America...

Quote:
Originally Posted by KillerZavatar View Post

an american news program might not be the most objective and insightful media on a chinese problem.
There are many news sources as to this phenomenon. I only pointed out Sixty Minutes as it was the latest news program that has reported on this subject. Doing a quick search there are reports on this from all over the world going all the way back to 2009.
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Old August 17th, 2013, 06:44 AM   #16206
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Yes I used the title function "LOLZ"

Quote:
Originally Posted by kix111 View Post
Why so serious. You even use the "title" function when posting lolz. Get your PHD in macro eceonomics before you talk about these please.
And I assume you have your PHD in what?
I'll get by with my lowly MBA.
This is an open forum and I realize I am getting off topic so I will slowdown. You don't get to dictate what is talked about so relax.

Did you notice I used the "title" function --- just to spite you?

Sooooo... Shanghai Tower. It is my favorite. I have been lurking on this thread since the tower was announced. And yes it is absolutely amazing. No I am not being sarcastic. I love the pictures and have downloaded hundreds for my desktop in my home office.
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Old August 17th, 2013, 06:47 AM   #16207
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Faisal Shourov View Post
I can sense America's insecurity by this article. They should worry about their own economy rather than scrutinizing others
The American and Chinese economies are deeply intertwined. It is important to know what our trading partners are doing and vice versa.
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Old August 17th, 2013, 06:49 AM   #16208
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Wrong! Why do some people always get so unreasonably defensive when others make negative but objective remarks about China?

Is China not a totalitarian society? Laugh my ass off. If you think China, one of very few totalitarian countries remaining on the planet, isn't totalitarian, then perhaps the word "totalitarian" has a different meaning in your own little dictionary. BTW, I'm Chinese too, but that doesn't mean I need to blindly deny every negative comment made about my home country.

Chinese real estate market, commercial and residential, indeed seems frothy right now. This is not just something that the Western media use to "tarnish" China's image. Even the Chinese government has acknowledged some serious systematic risks now exist in China's real estate and financial markets. In the past few years, excessive liquidity was pumped into the Chinese economy, where a mature capital market did not exist. Chinese enterprises and private citizens didn't have enough investment vehicles to put their money in other than chasing the housing market. Lots of companies with core businesses in other areas dipped their feet into real estate speculation. In the meantime, lots of average people got into a frenzy of buying condos too even if they had to leverage. Things were going wild. And in the process, enormous amount of bad loans were created. Some loans were even borrowed to service old loans, signaling a classic initial sign of a financial crisis. You wonder why there's still a credit crunch after so much liquidity was injected into the economy. You should look for the answer in the real estate market.

In China's top tier cities, the problem doesn't seem too bad. But in smaller Chinese cities, there really are blocks and blocks of empty apartment buildings. Some are half asses. Some are in disrepair already before they could be sold. It might take years if not forever for the market to fully digest those developments. So ghost towns are not some fictional anti-China propaganda portrayed in Western media. They are a reality!

A good metric to measure a given real estate market's health is the price-to-rent ratio. In virtually all Chinese cities, it's not uncommon for condos that sell for millions of RMB to only rent for a couple thousand per month. This interesting phenomenon reals the true housing demand is actually pretty weak. A big percentage of condos sold to owners actually don't have people live in. With regard to commercial real estate, many grade A office buildings in top tier cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen have huge ugly leasing ads on them, even though they opened to tenants several years ago. Most likely China's construction boom will take a breath in the next few years. Why should you expect otherwise?



Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
Wrong. Everything.

Firstly, China is not a 'totalitarian' society.

Secondly, there is nothing (and will not be) of the 'same that hammered American economy'. Takes 30 minutes of research to see why. Not gonna explain here.

Thirdly, supertalls are virtually all offices/hotels and office vacancy rates are at perhaps all time low. In fact, dangerously low in some cities.

Fourthly, those kind of stories on 'ghost towns' were popular on American and other TV stations because they look quite amazing on the surface. By now they became somewhat boring and a laughing material. Yet, as I can see, there still are poeple who buy them. True there are some empty buildings after completion of some projects. But those 'observers' ignore one fundamental reason for that: the fact that residential (or any other for that matter) developments in Chinese cities are built 'by miles' in the first place. There simply has never been such development patterns and scale (building entire urban district in one go) in America or anywhere else which is why the 'experts' and 'analysts' who create such stories have simply no idea what they're talking about because they simply have never seen that happening and never bothered to look into it because they 'know better'. Their limited minds and worldviews simply do not allow them to comprehend the idea that things in fact can be and aredone in a different way than what they are used to see at home.

Of course if you built thousands of units in one go in one location they will stay empty for longer than a dozen of units in one location. This is simply common sense and basic logic which some of those 'analysts' are unable to crunch.

There are challenges and even a probability of a slowdown but such 'insights' are completely out of touch with reality. And they are still having a hangover after the tirade of negative stories on China's HSR a couple of years back which by now has been proven to be a complete bluff and sham journalism at its worst. Just how pathetic. What's next? A huge asteroid is flying towards China?
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Old August 17th, 2013, 07:42 AM   #16209
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Quote:
Originally Posted by no1xc View Post
Wrong! Why do some people always get so unreasonably defensive when others make negative but objective remarks about China?

Is China not a totalitarian society? Laugh my ass off. If you think China, one of very few totalitarian countries remaining on the planet, isn't totalitarian, then perhaps the word "totalitarian" has a different meaning in your own little dictionary. BTW, I'm Chinese too, but that doesn't mean I need to blindly deny every negative comment made about my home country.

Chinese real estate market, commercial and residential, indeed seems frothy right now. This is not just something that the Western media use to "tarnish" China's image. Even the Chinese government has acknowledged some serious systematic risks ...

In China's top tier cities, the problem doesn't seem too bad. But in smaller Chinese cities, there really are blocks and blocks of empty apartment buildings. ...
A good metric to measure a ...?

China is as such a totalitarian state that it lacks laws and enforcements .

So what if some people lose money and go bankrupt? No 'faith' in 'market corrections'?

And so what if you claimed to be 'Chinese' ?

Last edited by skyridgeline; August 17th, 2013 at 12:45 PM.
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Old August 17th, 2013, 07:59 AM   #16210
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This is starting to get really off-topic .
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Old August 17th, 2013, 08:09 AM   #16211
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Quote:
Originally Posted by no1xc View Post
Wrong! Why do some people always get so unreasonably defensive when others make negative but objective remarks about China?
Because the remarks made are unnecessary and is completely irrelevant to this thread.
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Old August 17th, 2013, 08:11 AM   #16212
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How about someone post some nice new pics of the top - maybe they are getting close to starting the crown? Or very soon the floorplates will be catching up to the bases of the crane supports. I'm interested in that...
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Old August 17th, 2013, 08:26 AM   #16213
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I'd like to see how they build the indoor swimming poor. The J Hotel must have pools, right? They should be very high up there.
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Old August 17th, 2013, 10:53 AM   #16214
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ABQ_X-PAT View Post
Your London worldview and your obvious sensitivity to this subject being pointed out is telling. You sound like the people in America swearing up and down the economy was "just fine" in 2008. Until it wasn't.

By all definition of the word China is indeed totalitarian. You are simply wrong.

It took me perhaps five seconds to verify the veracity of reports of these overbuilt residential areas in secondary cities throughout China. Sources include your own British media. But hey what do they know? Only you are in the *know* right?

My observation. And we will see who is correct is that after this spate of buildings are complete we will probably have to wait before we see more as China weathers a slowdown.

Your sarcasm is what is "pathetic" here. But again no one else knows anything on this planet but you right? After all you sitting in your ivory perch in London.

I am not trashing China or criticizing them. I love the architecture and the astounding construction. My observation is legitimate. Now judging by your tone you will probably sit for hours brooding while calculating a peevish reply.
My 'own' British, media? London world view? For Christs sake, I'm not British and London is not even my home.
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Old August 17th, 2013, 11:06 AM   #16215
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can we please cut the off topic crap?

pretty cool photostream (albeit a bit old):
http://www.flickr.com/photos/archite...gn/8519444156/
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Old August 17th, 2013, 11:09 AM   #16216
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image hosted on flickr

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ashclements/9529245394/
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Old August 17th, 2013, 12:16 PM   #16217
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great pic!
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Old August 17th, 2013, 01:38 PM   #16218
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[IMG]http://i39.************/333x4k5.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://i42.************/35n8zms.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://i41.************/ff6cub.jpg[/IMG]
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Old August 17th, 2013, 01:45 PM   #16219
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[IMG]http://i39.************/21dk7jn.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://i41.************/10zrzv9.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://i39.************/316nk7b.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://i41.************/2zrlrmt.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://i39.************/2elz6ly.jpg[/IMG]
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Old August 17th, 2013, 01:46 PM   #16220
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
Secondly, there is nothing (and will not be) of the 'same that hammered American economy'. Takes 30 minutes of research to see why. Not gonna explain here.

Fourthly, those kind of stories on 'ghost towns' were popular on American and other TV stations because they look quite amazing on the surface. By now they became somewhat boring and a laughing material.

There are challenges and even a probability of a slowdown but such 'insights' are completely out of touch with reality. And they are still having a hangover after the tirade of negative stories on China's HSR a couple of years back which by now has been proven to be a complete bluff and sham journalism at its worst.
Pansori I shall endeavor to be kind.

I know a great deal about fiscal, financial, economic and monetary policy as well as economic history.

China will correct. You cannot change the Laws of Maths or Economics or Exponents just because we are discussing China.

China is not special.

China is not different.

The issue is how much of a correction, when and for how long.

Already markets in Shaanxi are correcting -60%.

What happened in Romania, Hungary, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, UK and USA will happen in China.

It is inevitable.

The question is how much? Real Estate in China can correct without China collapsing.

The Chinese government could simply write off all the bad debt. This would cause rates to rise, risk to be borne, and many would exit the market but many Chinese would then begin borrowing and lending without pause. Yet the value of the assets would drop and losses would be taken.

You cannot place Maths into abeyance just because 'China is special'.

It isn't.
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Last edited by China Hand; August 17th, 2013 at 01:53 PM.
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