Miami Economic Development = Engines that drive the community

[DShoost88]

Hey Quantum, that response to a comment you posted from the City-Data Forum made me kind of curious. I was wondering where that person read that fact about Miami, so I googled "economic performance of US cities" and found a link to this interesting pdf.

http://www.eukn.org/binaries/greatbr...can-cities.pdf

It talks about American cities' growth patterns during the 80's and 90's. It's a really fascinating read... I've been hooked to it for the last hour and half!

[kevinkagy]

Great news article. Obviously, I think that'd be great for Miami and I applaud UM's determination to continue to raise its prestige for both itself and the city.

[kevinkagy]

Seaboard Marine signs new lease, plans for expansion in Miami

http://www.miamitodaynews.com/news/080612/story7.shtml

Seaboard Marine Ltd., one of the Port of Miami's three terminal operators and shipper of more than half the cargo that leaves the port, expects its new lease agreement with the port to support its plans for double-digit freight growth and expansion here.
"We've been at the port since 1987. We've continued to steadily grow," said Bruce Brecheisen, Seaboard executive vice president. "We need a modern and efficient facility to be able to increase our volume and meet the growth required of our customers."
Over the past decade, Seaboard has increased its productivity at the port from handling about 2.2 million tons or 247,000 TEUs — 20-foot-equivalent units, the standard measure for cargo shipping containers — to 3.1 million, or 360,000 TEUs. The company's high level of shipping cargo accounts for 40% of the port's total cargo throughput and 60% of exports heading out of the Port of Miami.
The Miami-Dade County Commission on May 20 approved the new lease for 20 years with the possibility of two additional five-year terms. The port will oversee infrastructure improvement of Seaboard's roughly 70 acres of freight handling space, will modernize an additional 55 acres along the south side of Seaboard's terminal and sublet another 14 acres currently operated by another cargo line.
Seaboard will work with the county on redesign plans for the terminal and the port will assume maintenance responsibilities typical of a port landlord by demolishing older buildings or facilities, providing paving and drainage, configuring new wharves for berthing, slope designs and lighting.
Once the county's infrastructural improvements kick in, Seaboard will increase throughput by 18%, exceeding the total volume of throughput other leading carriers produce at rival ports.
The infrastructural benefits of the new lease position Seaboard well at the port where sailings already average 70 a month, shipping seven days a week, all year round, according to Mr. Brecheisen. The company places a strong emphasis on exporting, strengthening trade with Latin America and the Caribbean, more so than any other cargo carrier at the port, he said.
The other two terminal operators are the Port of Miami Terminal Operating Co. and P. Moller-Maersk Group. Port of Miami Terminal Operating Co. has been based at the port about 10 years and handles 500,000 TEUs there annually. A.P. Moller-Maersk Group, based in Copenhagen, has 50 terminals in 31 countries. Figures for its Port of Miami freight volume weren't available.
Seaboard's strength lies in regional dominance, focusing on Central American and Caribbean ports, and the new lease will provide more dockage and wharf space for the company's vessels and cargo, increasing productivity to the ports the carrier currently serves.
Under the new agreement, Seaboard will commit to grow at a 2% rate in the first five years, averaging a minimum of 4,000 TEUs per acre of its current 70 acres of terminal space — a task Seaboard is already accomplishing as it averaged 5,100 TEUs per acre at its Port of Miami terminal in fiscal 2007.
"We've had a long-term relationship with the port and this certainly strengthens it," said Mr. Brecheisen, "It fits well into our business model."
Port officials and the county commission see the potential growth of Seaboard at the port as mutually beneficial as the carrier employs residents countywide and generates $9 million annual revenue for the port. Securing Seaboard's stay at the port for another two decades would increase revenues to $13 million, a figure that can increase 4.1% over the course of the new lease. The revenue from the new lease will come from tariff rates on tonnage and from newly added tenant land rental fees.
"It's not a simple renewal, it's a partnership for years to come," said Andria Muniz, port spokesperson.
The increased business will come at a good time for the port, which has seen two consecutive years of declining imports and exports.
In 2006, the port handled 8,654,371 tons of cargo, down 8.6% from 2005. Last year the tonnage was down 9.5% from 2006, totaling 7,835,132.
Ms. Muniz, the port spokesperson, added that Seaboard's ability to grow its operations at the port complements Port Director Bill Johnson's plans to strengthen the economic viability and modernization efforts at the port. Having a strong, thriving cargo carrier supports his plans to attract future commerce through such major projects as the Miami Harbor project to dredge the port channel to 50 feet and the Miami Tunnel project, which would redirect truck traffic off downtown streets through a 1.1-mile underground tunnel.
Seaboard will make a one-time payment of $1,150,350 for all of the acres it will use. An additional one-time payment of $500,000 will go to settle disputed charges from 1997.
The port, which still has to make good on outstanding infrastructural improvements from its prior lease with Seaboard, has agreed to $26 million in capital improvements for Seaboard's terminal, much of which is already included in the port's Five-Year Capital Improvement Program. Revenues from the Seaboard deal and federal and state grants will pay for the new infrastructure.
Miami-Dade Inspector General Christopher Mazzella said his office was pleased with the criteria in the lease, but he has expressed concerns about the 20-year length of the lease.
"We don't like to see these very long leases that lock us out of renegotiating a few terms for the county," said Mr. Mazzella, whose office is designed to avoid and tackle mismanagement in county business, among other responsibilities. he said he has presented these concerns to Mr. Johnson, given incomplete infrastructural milestones in the past on the part of the seaport.
In Seaboard's past contract, the port failed to bring the carrier's terminal up to minimal standards, completing only one project and never starting the remaining eight that called for paving, draining and re-grading the terminal, the inspector general said in an April report to the county commission. These terms have been passed on to the new lease, with Seaboard now contributing to infrastructure costs, a fee it did not incur in the old lease.
"The math looks good, but you don't know what the future brings and I just want to look after the welfare of the county when we're all gone," Mr. Mazzella said.
The new lease with Seaboard, according to Mr. Brecheisen, is aimed at giving the port incentives to complete its infrastructural improvements this time, in order for the port to achieve different revenue thresholds over the course of the lease. If the port falls behind this time on maintenance, Seaboard will reduce its share of infrastructure fees by $100,000 each month past the milestone date.
"There's enough carrots and sticks that the port will fulfill these obligations," Mr. Brecheisen said. "This secures our future for the next 30 years at a site or port that we've been at for 20 years now."

[kevinkagy]

Home prices will rise, economist predicts

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/brea...ry/568011.html

South Florida real estate prices may appreciate as much as 30 percent over the next five years from their current depressed levels, the chief economist of the national association of real estate agents said Thursday.

Lawrence Yun, speaking to agents at the 2008 Real Estate Congress & Expo in Coral Gables, said the region's housing market appears to have stabilized. Prices are slowing their decline, and sales are starting to pick up.

''Looking out five years from now, the Miami region is in a position to gain strongly among some of the wealthy baby boomers in the United States who are retiring,'' said Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors. ``Plus, there is in my view a pent-up demand for foreign buyers who are sitting on the fence.''

After experiencing one of the most dramatic booms in housing prices in the country, the South Florida market has been suffering some of its most dramatic declines: Prices of single-family homes in the Miami/Fort Lauderdale metropolitan area plummeted 25 percent in the first quarter of the year, compared to a year ago. And the region also posted the biggest month-to-month price drops between February and March in the country, according to the widely followed Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index.

Yun said that analyzing the data shows differences between neighborhoods with high concentrations of subprime loans and those without. While those neighborhoods with subprime borrowers will continue to experience a shakeout, other areas will stabilize.

''The pendulum has swung way to the other side where excessive pessimism is holding back buyers,'' Yun said.

Yun has criticized the media for exacerbating the downturn by focusing on the declines. Similarly, Wall Street investment researchers and other analysts have criticized the National Association of Realtors, whose members profit from home sales, as being too bullish.

Veteran real estate analyst Michael Cannon, managing director of Integra Realty Resources, AREEA/South Florida, called Yun's outlook ``a bold statement.''

''I hope he's right, and it's an interesting comment, but deep down the reality is we don't really know,'' said Cannon, whose real estate column appears in The Miami Herald.

Cannon's view is that right now there remain too many uncertainties in the South Florida real estate market to make such predictions. ''We will know a lot more in the next 12 to 18 months,'' he said. One of the issues, he said, is that it's not really a problem with the housing market, it's a problem with the financing market. Credit restrictions at banks are making it difficult right now for buyers to get mortgages, for example.

Plus, he said, the extent of mortgage fraud, particularly in newer condo developments, still isn't clear.

Bottom line, Cannon said, is that for prices to go up as much as Yun forecasts, home prices still have to decline farther than they already have.

Home prices as tracked by the Florida Association of Realtors already have fallen to levels seen in the fall of 2004 -- after the real estate boom started -- and Cannon said prices might need to fall back to 2003 or earlier levels to reach ``equliibrium.''

[Hia-leah JDM]

From a non professional view just a resident, I don't plan top see prices level out until its more affordable for the local population.

[thetallerthebetter]

IT IS affordable NOW, you just have to follow the investor class, I have seen a lot of investor activity since very early on this year, those that keep waiting for the magic hour when the newscasters all join in to say "now is the time to buy, go and get yourself a nest egg!" are diluting themselves, the smart people that have money are buying now, there will not any bulletins alerting you that we've hit bottom, you are expected to use your eyes and ears, look for the right opportunity and negotiate aggressively to snatch it up with a price low enough for instant equity. As more activity occurs that starts to level out inventory then prices start to inch upwards again (not skyrocket) but by then the sellers mindset is less gloomy and less willing to negotiate because they start to realize the smart move is to hold on and wait the market out. There are some desperate sellers out there now and there are some cash rich investors making some very smart buys. It's not about picking the perfect day to buy, it's identifying the right property, analyzing the numbers to make sure you're not falling in love with a pig, then negotiate like you don't care if you get it. Or else get someone to help you who knows what they're doing and you trust.

Originally Posted by Hia-leah JDM

From a non professional view just a resident, I don't plan top see prices level out until its more affordable for the local population.

[AddictedToSpace]

A coworker of mine recently purchased a Five bedroom, three bath, two story, two car garage 3000+ sq. foot home with about 10000 sq. foot corner lot for less than 250,000. The home was an investor home, never lived in and in foreclosure. Granted, it is in Homestead but it is just off the Turnpike, near the Baptist Homestead Hospital and in a gated community. She did do all her homework and got a definite bargain even at pre-bubble prices.

[Exploratus]

I wouldnt buy a house in the suburbs if you gave it to me for 5 dollars. Homestead is a joke, and soemthing we should all be ashamed of.

[AddictedToSpace]

Originally Posted by Exploratus

I wouldnt buy a house in the suburbs if you gave it to me for 5 dollars. Homestead is a joke, and soemthing we should all be ashamed of.

I've read most of your posts today and was a little on the fence with your comments, but this is a real ignorant comment. You are entitled to your opinion, so your post should of read, "I am ashamed of Homestead."

[spellbound]

Originally Posted by Exploratus

I wouldnt buy a house in the suburbs if you gave it to me for 5 dollars. Homestead is a joke, and soemthing we should all be ashamed of.

Well, as much as I share the urbanist bias of everyone here I think a statement like that is a little unfair. City life just isn't for everybody and just because we may find it superior to the suburban experience doesn't mean we're "right"---not any more than saying one type of weather is better than another. It's simply a matter of personal preference.

If a place like Homestead makes sense to someone for any of a variety of reasons (economics, family, job proximity, whatever) then there's no reason they should feel "ashamed" of that. Is it my cup of tea? No. You couldn't pay me to live that life but for someone else it might make all the sense in the world.

[AddictedToSpace]

Especially with the amazing, yet not perfect, comeback Homestead has made from total annihilation by Hurricane Andrew.

[AddictedToSpace]

Real estate firm eyes $1B investment in Florida
A London company wants to buy luxury homes to hold for up to 10 years, expecting a big return.
Posted on Tue, Jun. 17, 2008

BY SIMON PACKARD
Bloomberg News

http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/572586.html
Strategic Real Estate Advisors, the asset manager that invested in London's Heron Tower development, plans to raise $1 billion to buy luxury homes in Florida that were repossessed by banks.

The Florida Prime Residential Opportunity Fund will purchase oceanfront condominiums and undeveloped land approved for housing, CEO Pierre Rolin said.

Rich individuals and sovereign wealth funds based in the Middle East and Europe will provide most of the money. The fund plans to buy with all cash and wait seven to 10 years to sell, Rolin said.

''If they have that kind of time horizon, that will present them with better opportunities,'' said Jack McCabe, CEO of Deerfield Beach-based McCabe Research & Consulting. ''In a market like Miami, there's a lot of inventory to clear and the litigation surrounding foreclosures will draw things out for years,'' said McCabe, whose company advises investors on real estate.

Florida is one of three states with the highest foreclosure filings in the United States. A building boom and the collapse of the mortgage market created the biggest glut of condominiums in Miami-Dade County in at least 30 years. Prices for single-family homes in the Miami metropolitan area quadrupled in the 20 years through 2006. Since then, they've fallen 26 percent, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index shows.

Locations such as Key Biscayne, Miami's South Beach and Brickell Avenue districts, nearby Star and Hibiscus Island, and Palm Beach will be the main target areas for the new fund, though Rolin said he may consider properties in Orlando and Tampa.

Stratreal, as the London-based company is known, aims to pay about $400 a square foot for the homes, Rolin said in an interview last week.

''We're in no rush,'' Rolin said. He estimated that average prices of luxury homes are about $500 a square foot, down from a peak of more than $1,000 for some developments, and will fall further.

The fund sees an annual internal rate of return of more than 20 percent.

The Related Group of billionaire Miami condominium developer Jorge Perez teamed up in February with Philadelphia-based property buyout firm Lubert-Adler to form a $1 billion fund to buy mortgages and properties.

''The whole world is looking at Florida at the moment,'' Rolin said.

Last month Miami ranked 19th in May among metropolitan areas with the highest foreclosure rates, according to RealtyTrac, a seller of default data. The Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro area, on Florida's Gulf Coast, was second-highest.

Stratreal manages $6.5 billion of real estate, including a stake in the Heron Tower development and the Grand Plaza building in Chicago.

The Heron Tower, scheduled to be completed in 2010, is the second-tallest building that is currently under construction in London's main financial district.

The company opened an office in Miami in 2005 to explore opportunities in southeast Florida and has contacted local banks and developers to identify potential investments, he said.

Investment demand from Europe, Latin America and the Middle East as well as from Americans who want second homes means that ''Miami will come back,'' Rolin said.

The dollar's 16 percent decline against the euro in the past 12 months has given some overseas investors an advantage over their U.S. counterparts, McCabe said.

''If prices go down, the American firms lose money while the Europeans may be at break-even,'' he said.

[Exploratus]

Poorly planned suburbs are a joke, and Homestead is poorly planned. They are symbol of everything that is wrong in America. Now, I dont mind single family homes, but sprawiling suburbs are a disease of this country. You dont need unwalkable suburbs to live in a single family home or even live in a suburb There are plenty of suburbs in Europe, and trust me, most dont look like Homestead because it just doesnt WORK in the big scheme of things. They are a cost to every citizen, suburban or urban. To support a suburban home, it costs every tax payer about 40 times more than an urban home to provide services. I am not saying that everyone needs to live in a condo, but Homestead is in the middle of NOWHERE... Just like Kendall.. ANY TERRIBLE PLANNED AND CONNECTED. Come east and enjoy MIAMI.... After all, you only live once. One day, suburbs will become the ghettos of the future, as everyone realizes how unsustainable and bad for society and the environment as a whole. They are a nightmare to transportation planners, a drain of resources, and a destroyer of healthy communities (we dont even know anymorewhat a real community is anymore). We used to have real communities but suburbs and sprawl destroyed them. The American Dream has become an American nightmare. Sprawling Suburbs are nothing more than bad planning and policy being manifested and carried on blindly for the last 50 years. It will take a generation and a lot of money and pain to fix the problems of the last 50 years.

I am not saying all suburbs are bad, but they need to be properly designed, planned for, and executed. AND OF COURSE CONNECTED. Tell me what part of homestead or Kendall is any of that? Maybe 2%, and thats me being generous. Its a bunch of cardboard homes, made with cheap materials and low quality. Roofs that blow out every hurricane. Its pathetic and EXPENSIVE to all. We live in a hurricane area, and these homes are a cost to ALL!! Years later, their are still blue tarps dotting the landscape? For what?????? So that we can seclude ourselves from society and be safe from evil monsters??? So each person can have a meager 1/4 acre of land which is not cared for and underused. I would have rather seen our natural environment saved and built a denser environment. Imagine if every person in the world had the ego we did and lived in a sprawling suburban home. THIS WORLD WOULD BE DESTROYED...


If we would have put all the resources of the last 10-15 years into our urbanized areas, we would have a KICK ASS CITY!!!!! I challenge anybody to challenge that notion. Imagine all that endless sprawl built the last few years in Dade, Broward, and Plam beach, being compacted into the eastern part of dade county. I bet you that South Florida East Coast Corridor would be a reality by now. Insteadwe built billion dollar highways, which are completely unsustainable, bat for the environment and urban fabric, and will need to be repaired in 15-20 years time at 10X the cost. We destroyed so much in the last 15 years, it was a golden era, and we spent it on an unsustainable built environment. Metro Rail would be easy to fund, gas would not be such a concern, etc etc etc etc. AGAIN, suburbs are not all bad, but constant suburb after suburb, after suburb after suburb, disconnected and poorly planned, ending with Homestead is in no ways good... Every time I ride a plane, I cannot believe the destruction we have caused to this enironment. People need to be more responsible and socially positive, and well realize that we can all live a little closer together, and we will all benefit. After all, thats the purpose of cities. A city is a city, its not a town...
All over America, they say that we have a huge infrastructure issue, we cant even afford to fix our existing infrastructure. We have built so much infrastructure to service such a low % of people, that in my opinion is bankrupting familes and this country as a whole. We have a huge national defecit, mostly due to oil imprts, which is mostly due to cars, which in turn is due to the poorly planned suburbs such as HOMESTEAD and Kendall... We wanted cheap homes, and we are gonna pay for it in the long run. NOTHING IS FREE IN LIFE.... The American savings rate this year was 0%, angain 0%. Last year it was the same. Take a guess how much money the average car costs a year. About 7000-8000 dollars. Multiply that by 3 for an average family. Thats 20,000 a year. In ten years you have a nice nest egg. But no, its the Saudis, and the Nigerians, and Chavez and all of them with your nest egg. Again, just so you have a beautiful home, made of cardboard, in the middle of nowhere, and so you can drive 2 hours every day......

That suburban home ends up costing people more than they even imagine. From time to money. I have a feeling in 50 years suburbs will be a thing of the past....

I personally could never imagine living out there. Its a prison for the social prison for the soul and mind. Again, I am not saying suburbs are bad, just that they are poorly planned and executued, usually for a quick buck. How can anybody, who has actually travelled around the world, and has a little education on cities or urban planning say that Homestead is properly planned in any way?????????? Its a logistical nightmare.

Just because we all need different options of living, doesnt mean we need to live in poorly planned communities with little regard for much of anything but the developers pockets.

I agree my last comment was a bit exaggerated, I just wanted to get my point across and get some conversation started. hehe I would pay 50 dollars... But then Id rent it to a fool...

Again, just a joke..

[Exploratus]

AddictedTO Space, I agree Homestead made a huge comeback.. But imagine if that energy, time, money, and effort, would have been put into, lets say, little Havana or surrounding areas. That area would be kick ass, next to downtown, probably ripe and ready for mass transit, cheaper in the long run for the city and its residents, and not a strain on social services.

People need to realize they have been brainwashed by this idea of the American dream and the white picket fence. Plain and simple, since the beginning of time, people have not lived like that, and in the future, people will not live like that in mass. (Again, in mass) Its just does not work....... Plain and simple, it does not work in mass.

[thetallerthebetter]

Originally Posted by AddictedToSpace

The dollar's 16 percent decline against the euro in the past 12 months has given some overseas investors an advantage over their U.S. counterparts, McCabe said.

''If prices go down, the American firms lose money while the Europeans may be at break-even,'' he said.

I can't believe so many media outlets keeps going back to McCabe who clearly has a conflict of interest, look at the last thing he says, always framing things from the negative point of view. The headline is, there's yet another billion of investor funds coming into the local market and he acts like it's hopeless.

I know what you're thinking. Hey you're an agent you have just as much conflict! Yeah thats true but I honestly believe there's a lot of evidence that we're at the bottom of this thing. While foreclosures are still high, there's a momentun of investors which will start to lower inventory and release some of that downward pressure on prices. My best educated guess is that prices will probably start inching upwards again around Spring 2009.

[Roark]

Originally Posted by thetallerthebetter

I can't believe so many media outlets keeps going back to McCabe who clearly has a conflict of interest, look at the last thing he says, always framing things from the negative point of view.

I agree with you about the media still taking his opinion. Why? The guy claimed that 80% of condominium buyers in the CBD of Miami were going to walk away. That isn't, nor has been the case in any building in the CBD. The idea that 80% of buyers would plunk down a 20% deposit and walk away is preposterous. How a guy from Deerfield becomes an expert on skyscrapers befuddles me.
At any rate, did you catch this part of the article:

Prices for single-family homes in the Miami metropolitan area quadrupled in the 20 years through 2006. Since then, they've fallen 26 percent, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index shows

. I'm no expert on Single Family homes in the entire MSA, but doesn't quadrupled mean up about 400%?
Up 400% and down 26%...interesting.

[dave8721]

On the McCabe front, I love how they spent months of research (i wonder who they charged it to?) to come up with their number 22,000 for the number of units actually constructed? I could have could have come up with that number in less than an hour. Its all available in City documents, easily searched. Maybe I'm in the wrong business...

(and yes Roark, you can post your "I told you so" when you were posting a couple of years ago that McCabe was drastically overestimating the number of units getting built.)

http://www.miamiherald.com/459/story/576196.html

Miami condo building frenzy not as big as thought

BY MATTHEW HAGGMAN
mhaggman@MiamiHerald.com

So how big was Miami's downtown building boom?

In the last six years, 22,737 units were built or are now under construction in Miami's urban core -- more than double the number built in the nearly 40 previous years, according to a new report.

That's a huge figure, but still less frothy than some predicted.

The number of new condos in downtown Miami -- a number that's been hotly debated -- has important implications for the overall sales outlook of the condo market. Perhaps no corner of Florida has seen more building in recent years than Miami's urban core.

Cranes became a fixture on the city's skyline as new condo towers sprouted on once-forlorn lots, bankers handed developers billions to build, and the frenzied market prompted thousands of eager buyers to purchase units sight unseen.

Some warned too many condos were going up at a rate and at prices that far outstripped demand, equating the Miami land rush to the tech stock bubble and predicting home prices would fall just like share prices did.

Yet, with the housing market turning cold in 2006, the credit crunch spreading in 2007 and inexperienced builders tripping up on everything from rising construction costs to plain mismanagement, many proposed projects were scratched.

With few new projects starting, the real scope and size of Miami's downtown condo craze is starting to come into focus.

''It's not as big as we all thought it would be,'' said Jack McCabe, a Deerfield Beach real estate analyst who has long said way too many condos are going up than current market conditions support. ``Less than half of all announced projects are actually being built -- two years ago it looked liked everything would get funded.''

To be sure, many observers, including McCabe, say it doesn't change their analysis: The downtown market still has a vast surplus of condos.

''It's kind of a double-edge sword,'' said Peter Zalewski, a principal at CondoVultures.com, which conducted the survey on downtown condos. ``On the one hand, it is not 50,000 or 80,000 new units, it is 22,000 new units. But the bad part is that it is still 22,000 new units.''

The report by CondoVultures.com, a brokerage and advisory firm in Bal Harbour that helps individuals and investment funds find condo bargains, examined the swath of land from the Julia Tuttle to Rickenbacker causeways and from Interstate 95 to Biscayne Bay.

The surveyed area includes Miami's Brickell, central business district and Midtown areas.

Zalewski hired three researchers who went block by block and reviewed public filings to total the number of condo units. The aim was to ''quantify the market,'' said Zalewski, who took 4 ½ months to complete the study.

Since the boom erupted, developers filed proposals with Miami government planners to build more than 90,000 condo units across the city, including downtown. A persistent question has been how many of the announced projects, complete with fancy architectural renderings, would actually turn into buildings.

The study's findings: an area that built 11,517 condos between 1963 and 2002 will now have 34,254. Since 2003, the flurry produced 73 condo projects comprising 163 new buildings, 2,672 floors and 22.5 million square feet of livable space.

The results are another illustration of how Miami's downtown core is being remade by a historic building boom, underlining the region's ongoing transition from a sprawling, suburban metropolitan area to a modern urban center.

But some parts of the picture remain fuzzy -- namely, how quickly all the units will be occupied, when prices will stabilize and begin to rise again.

Miami's biggest urban boom is wrapping up at a time when the broader South Florida housing market remains mired in a deep slump and the economy is sputtering.

Yet, the renewed desire for urban life and the ongoing trend of road-weary suburbanites returning to the city is getting an added kick: $4 gas prices that give more incentive for living where the car is used less. And Miami's urban center is attracting more people, the busy restaurants near Brickell Avenue being an example.

''The issue is, have we made this a more livable downtown and the answer is absolutely yes,'' said Jorge Perez, chairman of condo builder Related Group. ``Will within a certain period of time 22,000 units be consumed? Yes.''

Perez, who is behind a dozen downtown condo towers, added that despite the current market pain, few observers deny Miami's long-term prospects are bright -- predicting that over the long haul the current condo surge will be subsumed by even more development.

''If we are ever to have a viable, 24-hour downtown, this is a minimal amount of units,'' he said. ``What is 22,000? It is nothing.''

Thus far, according to Miami real estate analyst Michael Cannon, 13,430 units in greater downtown Miami have been completed. Of that, 9,494 -- or 74 percent -- have closed.

But the analyst, who said the CondoVultures.com total downtown condo count is similar to his own tally, cautioned against looking at the greater downtown as a whole.

Cannon predicted there will be significant differences from project to project and neighborhood to neighborhood within the greater downtown. Differentiators range from the quality of a building to whether a neighborhood already has restaurants or shops.

''You have successful buildings next door to troubled projects that should never have been built,'' said Cannon, managing director of Integra Realty Resources. ``And, more broadly, we know Brickell is a successful market but we don't know what type of person buys in the central business district, or in Midtown. The jury is out.''

[kevinkagy]

I'm pleasantly surprised, 74% closings is pretty good. I truly think the future looks very bright for Brickell, Downtown and Midtown. It might be rough in the next two years, but it'll blossom nicely.

[QuantumX]

Originally Posted by kevinkagy

I'm pleasantly surprised, 74% closings is pretty good. I truly think the future looks very bright for Brickell, Downtown and Midtown. It might be rough in the next two years, but it'll blossom nicely.

In the game of musical chairs, there is always somebody who's left standing when the music stops.

[BornInTheGrove]

well said..