Miami Economic Development = Engines that drive the community

[FIDEL CASTRO]

I have to agree with EXPLARATUM. I live in Kendall and it is a mother to live here.

I want to ask you something, If you are single..

Is it cheaper to live near Downtown Miami, Miami Beach (urban area) or in a suburb?

[QuantumX]

Originally Posted by FIDEL CASTRO

I have to agree with EXPLARATUM. I live in Kendall and it is a mother to live here.

I want to ask you something, If you are single..

Is it cheaper to live near Downtown Miami, Miami Beach (urban area) or in a suburb?

At first, I thought you wanted to date him!

[FIDEL CASTRO]

If EXPLARATUM is a 7 feet tall albino chick from Sweden, then hell yeah.

[RE Expert]

Originally Posted by Roark

I agree with you about the media still taking his opinion. Why? The guy claimed that 80% of condominium buyers in the CBD of Miami were going to walk away. That isn't, nor has been the case in any building in the CBD. The idea that 80% of buyers would plunk down a 20% deposit and walk away is preposterous. How a guy from Deerfield becomes an expert on skyscrapers befuddles me.
At any rate, did you catch this part of the article:
. I'm no expert on Single Family homes in the entire MSA, but doesn't quadrupled mean up about 400%?
Up 400% and down 26%...interesting.

1. I challenge you to find any article that quotes me saying that 80% of Miami condo buyers would walk away. It is a gross misrepresentation of anything I've ever said; a distortion, and an absolute lie.
2. I DID say that 70-80% of the preconstruction condo deposits in Miami Dade were placed by speculative non end user buyers. I say that's accurately being proven now and is as correct as when I said it 4 years ago.
3. I did say that I estimated that 35-50% of these condo deposit holders would choose to walk away or litigate to get refunds. I did say that in some specific buildings that were almost entirely sold to speculators and were built as commodities that they could see a cancellation rate as high as 80%. That's the quote Roark is hell bent on twisting and repeating time after time after incorrect time on this board. Shame on you David, you pathetic loser.
4. Everything I've said is documented in newspaper and magazine articles and I have copies of all to prove it. Again, David, produce substantiation of your unprovable claim or shut the hell up.

Now about David/Roark. Let's take a closer look at him.
He's been the Sales Director of the Flamingo at South Beach, a failed and busted condo conversion project that has reverted to rentals due to lack of sales. Look a little further at the sales that have been made by David and staff and you now find;
Foreclosures (due to speculator sales) of the units David sold to speculators (which he downplayed in all his previous posts) are mounting in the Flamingo. It's well known around Miami. Even way up here 40 miles away in remote Deerfield Beach. The Miami web blogs are all abuzz about it.
http://www.miamicondoinvestments.com...-bay/#comments
Read through the comments.
You'll also notice how many people discuss the amount of porn filmed at the Flamingo. Apparently, David and his staff have prostituted the reputation of this project and are selling or renting to porn film makers. I'm sure the non porn residents are thrilled by this.
David lied in this forum for years about the number of speculators he and his agents sold to and profited from. As you'll notice again in the web comments by many different people, it is fairly well known throughout Miami.
Roark Summary - Arrogant real estate sales agent blows smoke up dark places at Skyscraper City. Makes living selling to speculators and porn makers, causing foreclosures and falling property values. His pompousness and unmitigated gall has been well demonstrated on this website (not surprising given his work history).

The multi-agency task force on mortgage and real estate fraud, which I consult, will most certainly be looking at Roark's activities and the Flamingo's mortgages in the near future. Count on it David. Hope your paperwork will withstand the scrutiny.

Below you will find the date that each condo development began closings:

Ten Museum Park - June 14, 2007
Star Lofts on the Bay - June 20, 2007
Latitude on the River - July 27, 2007
Onyx on the Bay - July 31, 2007
Loft Downtown 2 - September 26, 2007
50 Biscayne - October 1, 2007
1800 Club - November 27, 2007
Brickell on the River 2 - December 17, 2007
Opera Tower - December 28, 2007
Quantum on the Bay - January 3, 2008
Plaza on Brickell - January 7, 2008
Apogee South Beach - January 16, 2008
Avenue at Brickell - January 23, 2008
Midtown 4 - February 15, 2008
Marina Blue - February 27, 2008
Wind - February 28, 2008
Asia - April 4, 2008

We have researched all assessor's records of closings and know exactly where each building stands.

Now, this is what I've said regarding construction of units in Miami and Miami Dade, which is also documented in the media and included in many feasibility studies;
Between 2004 and 2008 -
Downtown Miami - 23,000 - new units built or U/C
Miami Dade County - 38,000 - new units built or U/C
Miami Dade County - 25,555 - existing units on MLS
Miami Dade County - 435 - avg monthly sales in 2008
Miami Dade County - 58 - months of existing supply

Miami Dade County - 9,074 - new units built and absorbed between 1994-2003
Miami Dade County - 907 - new unit annual absorption between 1994-2003

Now, some more questions for David/Roark;
1. How many condos did you sell pre-construction to speculators? How many multi-unit sales to individuals did you do? Solicit?
2. How many did you comfort with “it'll only go up in value?
3. How many did you steer to a mortgage broker for a subprime or non FHA ARM? Get a kickback/referral?
4. How many did you take additional “reserve option” money from to get them in “home run buildings” at VIP/Friends and Family prices?

The current condo disaster in Miami, both downtown and countywide will take years to overcome. Skallywag sales people like Roark want to blame the media, lenders, developers, or me, when the truth is in the mirror in front of them. Alas they'll never hear or see reality.

Roark, If you want to take me to task for my data or analysis, don't distort or misrepresent it. GET IT RIGHT OR SHUT THE #$%& UP.

It's about time the readers on this web blog finally figure out who is telling the truth and who is spreading manure.

Two final points to chew on:

1. McCabe Research & Consulting received the 2007 Real Estate Consultant of the Year award from the Developers and Builders Alliance of South Florida. Ask yourselves .....if my data, analysis, and predictions are wrong as Roark continually posts on this site, why then, would the Miami condo builders I have been so critical of, give me an award as Consultant of the Year? You'd think if Roark was anywhere near right these builders would want to mug me for all the bad press and criticism I've had for them, wouldn't you?
2. Especially for you Roark, ole buddy: Last week your employer, Mr. de Fortuna and Fortune Development, became a consulting client of McCabe Research & Consulting. Seems your boss considers my analysis and expertise important and valuable.

Guess what one of the topics I'll be discussing with him in the near future is?

Inevitably, what goes around comes around.

[RE Expert]

Originally Posted by dave8721

On the McCabe front, I love how they spent months of research (i wonder who they charged it to?) to come up with their number 22,000 for the number of units actually constructed? I could have could have come up with that number in less than an hour. Its all available in City documents, easily searched. Maybe I'm in the wrong business...

(and yes Roark, you can post your "I told you so" when you were posting a couple of years ago that McCabe was drastically overestimating the number of units getting built.)

http://www.miamiherald.com/459/story/576196.html

Dave, this was Peter Zalewski's research study sourced in the Herald, not mine.

I was quoted in 2004-05-06-07 that 25,000 condos in Miami would get built. I sourced the Miami DDA reports, issued monthly. The report reflected 25K under construction, 25K permitted, and 50K applied for permits and were in due diligence in 2004.

My published quotes were that the 25K under way would get built, the 25K permitted might see a few of the projects come to completion, and the 50K would never get financed.

Again, I've been consistent, and accurate, can back up what I say with actual reports and print articles and television interviews. Not heresay and distortion of others comments, as Roark does.

When you wonder out loud on this website why so many reporters (from local newspapers to the WSJ, NYT, Fortune, Forbes, CNBC, CNN,. PBS, and every news publication between here and Shanghai ) continually and consistently quote me as a renowned expert, the reason is simple. It's true, proven, and well documented.

Perhaps you should read things twice to grasp the content of the material before inserting your foot in your mouth.

And as I told Roark, offer factual substantiation to support your opinions, or be singled out and recognized for doofus comments.

[mileageman]

..

[spellbound]

Frankly, I think both of you have personal vendettas and vested interests that detract from this site. This is way too much "he said/ she said" juvenile nonsense and who but an absolute MORON would seek "expert" RE advice on a freakin' skyscraper website?

Please take it somewhere else. Nothing against either of you personally (how can I be against people who only exist in cyberspace?) but this really isn't the place for such personalized and increasingly hostile mud-slinging. Neither of you is scoring points in the credibility department, imo.

[RE Expert]

Originally Posted by mileageman

RE Expert:

1. I don't know either you or Roark, but both of you can be accused of having an agenda to push... Weren't you trying to put together a vulture fund (for which you have yet to find one suitable investment after >2 years)?[/url]

Read the news articles. The choice not to put together a fund was made two years ago. We are consulting investment banks, private equity firms, and hedge funds on acquisitions of bonds, notes, and assets. Deals are and will be done discreetly and privately.

Originally Posted by mileageman

RE Expert:

2. Your number of 80% speculators clearly cannot be proven at this point, and appears to be likely untrue. We all know that Miami has always been a very large second home market... would you classify the thousands of prime condos on South Beach sitting dark most of the year as being controlled by speculators/non-end users? Actually, the new downtown buildings seem to have more lights on than in the SoFi neighborhood[/url]

Speculators, still owned/unsold by builders, and REO. Some are snowbird nests. Funny how those units sat dark during season, isn't it?

Originally Posted by mileageman

RE Expert:

3. You keep forgetting that the dynamics have completely changed. It may seem like a huge amount suddenly being built, but you have to remember that there used to be thousands of units built every year in the suburbs... since land has dried up, the only place to go is up. In addition, the area was very under built, and has become much more desirable as crime has dried up, retail shops open up etc.[/url]

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/miam...ry/575458.html

Originally Posted by mileageman

RE Expert:

4. The fact that you are constantly being quoted in news publications means absolutely nothing... we all know what idiots reporters can be, particularly in South Florida.]

http://www.google.com/search?q=%22Ja...x=&startPage=1
http://www.topix.net/search/article?q=%22Jack+McCabe%22

Surely, you don't imply that all these journalists are idiots? Who in the hell are you and what accomplishments have you made that gives you such arrogance?

Originally Posted by mileageman

RE Expert:

You must admit that what has happened in the past few years has been quite impressive. In 40 years from 1963-2003, only 11K units were built downtown, and suddenly 22k built in just the past 5 years (not to mention the thousands throughout the rest of Dade county). The fact that so much of that has been absorbed in such a short time shows that it will not be much longer until the rest will be absorbed, even if there is still some excess inventory for a few years.

Prove what you think has been absorbed. Give hard data and quote your information sources. Let's see substantiation of what you think you know. My research staff and I investigate the market daily. We have the numbers. You are wrong, but I'd love to see you back up your claim on this website. Prove it!

Originally Posted by mileageman

RE Expert:

I wish you luck on your fund, but so far it seems that there really is not much out there... unless you want to buy in a toxic wasteland like Biscayne Landing, or in other undesirable areas. It actually appears that you are getting desperate, based on your attacking Kevin Tomlinson's post detailing how pending sales are way up in Miami in 2008 compared to last year:
http://www.southbeachrealestateblog....he-fear-curve/

I will counter any and all real estate sales people that attack me first, and bring their personal involvement and greed to view and be questioned. Tomlinson, like old Roark here, is another unhappy sales person and wants to blame me and the media, while he is an innocent. BS!
I suggest you re-read Tomlinson's post and graph. Compare how he chopped off my quotes to what was included in the Herald article. He purposely deleted most of it in an attempt to attack a portion.
In the graph (Trendix) in his post, he only shows current sales and pending sales for Miami Beach. What he hides and doesn't show is that there are 3,890 existing condos for sale in Miami Beach (excluding the new ones) and 85 average monthly closings in 2008, a 45.75 month supply. That's almost 4 years of existing supply. Ever consider that a growing portion of these sales are foreclosures, auctions, and short sales? something to brag about?
Check out www.ewm.com Click on the Facts and Trends tab. Pull up Miami Beach reports. Data from the FAR, on the real estate sales group website Tomlinson works for.
Obviously, you are easily deceived and see only what suits you.

[mileageman]

..

[FIDEL CASTRO]

RE EXPERT:

What do you want to hear from us?

[FIDEL CASTRO]

Originally Posted by mileageman

David and McCabe.

[RE Expert]

Read the previous posts I've made here again. Learn what the actual numbers are. Yours are wrong and rosy.
Read the article AND all the comments, if you are interested in learning what is going on. Who are you, by the way? Anyone, or just another vested interest in seeing things in boom mode again that finds power in anonymity?
The Herald has won many investigative awards and overrall has done a pretty good job of covering both sides of the real estate boom/bust with a number of different experts that have varying perspectives, myself included. You seem to have the perception that I am the only one they quote and they just sit on their thumbs all day until it is time to call me. Obviously, your misguided perception come from a very narrow viewpoint, as must your opinions.
An investigative piece coming out in the near future is going to rock the world of a number of these vested interests in Miami.
Check out Lucas Lechuga's http://www.miamicondoinvestments.com/ or Peter Zalewski's http://www.condovultures.com/ website if you want to learn more about how much inventory has been absorbed in closings between developers and initial buyers. Check the MLS and pocket listings held on resales in different buildings re-sale offices of speculative units. Count the freaking foreclosures, auction sales, and short sales. It's more plentiful than you obviously know. Further, read the NAR's recent vacancy study that shows Miami with the most vacant condos of anywhere in the US. And on and on. Maybe if you are sitting on some condos or make your living selling/financing/flipping them you'll get it, but probably not.

I've addressed the majority of your concerns and criticism's, but won't reply to your last paragraph.....except to say, it reflects your ignorance and out of line ego. I "sense" you become a bigger, more powerful man behind the keyboard.

You "sense" panic? Thanks for the chuckle.

Re-read my posts. I will defend our data and my analysis, especially when the comments have been posted by what may be questionable real estate sales people. I will question what their own motivations and hidden agenda are. Live with it.

Originally Posted by mileageman

Mr. McCabe: With all due respect, whether you actually have a fund, or are simply advising other funds, you clearly are a vulture with a vested interest in this market.]

Your linking to a Miami Herald article about real estate scammers means very little. Are you trying to say that the area is not much more desirable than it was five or ten years ago? I am afraid you might be a bit out of touch up in Deerfield, it seems that you don't have a very good grasp of the area and its history.

As for whether or not journalists are idiots, I think most would agree that they are at the least very sloppy. If a reporter is trying to write a gloom and doom article, and wants a quote from a supposed analyst, there really is only one man to turn to, and that is you. Putting aside your qualifications as an analyst, the fact that they turn to you shows how lazy they are. Its like calling the hedge-fund manager who is short XYZ stock, and asking his opinion on the stock.

No one knows precisely how much inventory has actually been absorbed, but clearly quite a good chunk already has been. A few weeks ago, the number from Marina Blue were posted, where just in the first few months of closing most of the building had already sold, even in the current market. If 11k units were built in the 40 years from 1963-2003, that implies a rate of <300 units per year. If just half of the 22k built in the past 5 has been absorbed, that would be >2K per year, quite an increase but not unimaginable. Even you would agree that any excess inventory is not liable to last for more than a few years. Look at the Dade population numbers, look at the dearth of SF home construction due to lack of land, and the concept will quickly crystallize in your head.

All in all, I read panic from what you have posted. After 3 years of the market crashing, you have only managed to be involved in two small vulture investments on the west coast according to the New Times. Now, all the numbers seem to be showing the market turning, pending sales up over 40%, prices stabilizing, you must be fearing that your window of opportunity is quickly closing. Are you surprised that Roark or Tomlinson react the way they do, when you attack them and their trying to earn a living? I am reminded of this scene:

[MiamiMike]

Originally Posted by RE Expert

Shame on you David, you pathetic loser.

Now about David/Roark. Let's take a closer look at him.
He's been the Sales Director of the Flamingo at South Beach, a failed and busted condo conversion project that has reverted to rentals due to lack of sales. Look a little further at the sales that have been made by David and staff and you now find;
Foreclosures (due to speculator sales) of the units David sold to speculators (which he downplayed in all his previous posts) are mounting in the Flamingo. It's well known around Miami.
You'll also notice how many people discuss the amount of porn filmed at the Flamingo. Apparently, David and his staff have prostituted the reputation of this project and are selling or renting to porn film makers. I'm sure the non porn residents are thrilled by this.

David lied in this forum for years about the number of speculators he and his agents sold to and profited from. As you'll notice again in the web comments by many different people, it is fairly well known throughout Miami.


Roark Summary - Arrogant real estate sales agent blows smoke up dark places at Skyscraper City. Makes living selling to speculators and porn makers, causing foreclosures and falling property values. His pompousness and unmitigated gall has been well demonstrated on this website (not surprising given his work history).

The multi-agency task force on mortgage and real estate fraud, which I consult, will most certainly be looking at Roark's activities and the Flamingo's mortgages in the near future. Count on it David. Hope your paperwork will withstand the scrutiny.

Haha. Well I have no vested interest, besides thinking the guy is a charlatan. I had no idea he was so desparate he had reverted to leasing apartments to porn companies. How does that work? Charge them by the hour? lol.

I wonder if he tries to sell porn stars on real estate investing Rich Dad style lol. Im sure David has a great story of how he turned some gang bang whore into a real estate millionare.......and Im sure since they consume so many drugs, they might be inclined to believe who David claims to lunch with (in only the finest establishments of course).

[Hia-leah JDM]

This is STUPID.

[FIDEL CASTRO]

I know, now this is getting ugly and harsh.

Not funny.

[Hia-leah JDM]

That too, but more so STUPID

[FIDEL CASTRO]

"Stupid" might not fit this situation.

[Hia-leah JDM]

I think it does, but anyways lets get back to the stupidity or shall we get on to the real subject of this thread.

[305Lover]

This thread is going to close soon...

[SoBe99]

Good reading.

It would be ironic that all those threads by David Restainer Roark continuously slamming McCabe remain open, but this first thread response from McCabe gets closed...