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Old August 26th, 2009, 09:30 PM   #10061
meh_cd
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Originally Posted by Onn View Post
You missed the rest of the article where she proves she has no idea what she's talking about.

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Since the building is supposed to top off with the 104th above-ground floor, based on a floor-a-month schedule, we estimate that it will take about 8˝ more years for the PA to finish the 2.6 million square foot building -- around January 2018.

If that wasn't enough of a shock, after we concluded our back-of-the-envelope calculations, we uncovered a Lower Manhattan Construction Command Center confidential "draft-risk analysis" document from July that shows there is an 80 percent probability that the building will be finished by that very same January 2018.


Tishman Construction, the general contractor, said it was never consulted on the LMCCC guesstimate memo and is sticking to the Port Authority's 2013 completion deadline, a spokesman said.

On its Web site, the LMCCC states, "According to the Port Authority schedule, the tower is expected to open in the fourth quarter of 2013."

The groundbreaking was July 4, 2004, and the Web site adds, "Crews have worked steadily since then."

By contrast, the Burj Dubai tower, nearing completion in the United Arab Emirates as the world's tallest building with 160 concrete-only floors, started work in 2005 and will very likely open by the end of this year.

Tishman Construction also worked on the 1.7 million square foot 7 World Trade Center that at one point, under Larry Silverstein's direction, was completing a floor every four days.

The contractor is also in the last stages of wrapping up the nearby 43-story Goldman Sachs headquarters, which broke ground in December 2006 -- around the same time the first beam was installed at the Freedom Tower.


Back in 2007, the PA documents show that by this week they expected concrete to be poured on the deck of the 44th floor, with steel up to floor 53 -- the height of 7 World Trade Center -- and, get this, predicted a curtain wall would already be slapped as high as the 22nd floor.

Let's keep our fingers crossed they are able to stick to the latest 2013 schedule, but don't count on it.
So, they ignored what the PA official said about the lobby floors taking longer, have a child's understanding of probability (80% chance it will be finished by 2018 doesn't mean it's going to be finished in 2018. Why is this so hard for people to grasp?), and compared WTC 1's speed of construction to two short, stubby buildings and a building in the middle of a desert wasteland. How did this article get published? Oh, that's right, it's the New York Post.
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Old August 26th, 2009, 09:55 PM   #10062
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Originally Posted by meh_cd View Post
So, they ignored what the PA official said about the lobby floors taking longer, have a child's understanding of probability (80% chance it will be finished by 2018 doesn't mean it's going to be finished in 2018. Why is this so hard for people to grasp?), and compared WTC 1's speed of construction to two short, stubby buildings and a building in the middle of a desert wasteland. How did this article get published? Oh, that's right, it's the New York Post.
That doesn’t diminish the other part of the article at all, which is probably truth. And since more people are reporting that there's some sort of secret document, there probably is one. And it may say 2018. I don't think that's realistic, but I don't know if 2013 is either...
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Old August 26th, 2009, 10:11 PM   #10063
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oh my, can't believe that this tower is being in progress! it's also one of my favorite tower!
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Old August 26th, 2009, 10:25 PM   #10064
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I agree, they could have put it in its original location, surrounded by glass. Another nice point would be that in the future it would help people realize why the memorial was built like it was.
The Column would be inside the wall behind the waterfall, because they mark the footprints. In fact it would have been a nice addition to have it in place, where it actually was, but it would look awful and displaced together with the pools.
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Old August 26th, 2009, 11:01 PM   #10065
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If they actually stick to a floor-a-week schedule this tower will most certainly be done on time.
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Old August 26th, 2009, 11:02 PM   #10066
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About 30 seconds of research would have informed that halfwit that Burj Dubai started construction in 2004. Kinda shows you the regard for truth and accuracy they have at that rag.
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Old August 26th, 2009, 11:53 PM   #10067
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Onn View Post
That doesn’t diminish the other part of the article at all, which is probably truth. And since more people are reporting that there's some sort of secret document, there probably is one. And it may say 2018. I don't think that's realistic, but I don't know if 2013 is either...
What was so shocking about the other part of the article? Nothing about that was a shock to me. As for this "secret document" that the LMDC has, as I said, 80% chance of the building being completed by 2018 doesn't mean it won't be finished until 2018. If this "secret document" said there was a 30% chance of it being finished by 2018 then I'd be a little concerned, but even then we don't know what numbers they used to calculate that probability. My guess is they just pulled numbers out of a hat.
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Old August 27th, 2009, 12:15 AM   #10068
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What was so shocking about the other part of the article? Nothing about that was a shock to me. As for this "secret document" that the LMDC has, as I said, 80% chance of the building being completed by 2018 doesn't mean it won't be finished until 2018. If this "secret document" said there was a 30% chance of it being finished by 2018 then I'd be a little concerned, but even then we don't know what numbers they used to calculate that probability. My guess is they just pulled numbers out of a hat.
Oh, I don't deny that at all. I agree, who knows where they came up with 2018. Obviously that is not a realistic timetable.
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Old August 27th, 2009, 12:19 AM   #10069
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For some reason, I saw the topping off is Summer '12 and opening is winter '12
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Old August 27th, 2009, 12:39 AM   #10070
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Calm down guys, just look at the progress of the last six months. Do you really believe it will take 9 years from now to finish it? The tower has grown significantly, and it will definitely finish around 2013. Imagine, that are 4 years! Enough time for a quite normal superstructure to be build. The time consuming extra safe part has been nearly done now.

You all know the circumstances, the safety issues, the operating subway, and all that other stuff. But this is over!
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Old August 27th, 2009, 12:44 AM   #10071
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Calm down guys, just look at the progress of the last six months. Do you really believe it will take 9 years from now to finish it? The tower has grown significantly, and it will definitely finish around 2013. Imagine, that are 4 years! Enough time for a quite normal superstructure to be build. The time consuming extra safe part has been nearly done now.

You all know the circumstances, the safety issues, the operating subway, and all that other stuff. But this is over!
Indeed. I'm just angry that they are allowed to publish such garbage. It's not just the New York Post, it's every news agency in this country with regards to ANY kind of news.

But that is not the point of this thread. As you said the progress is obvious and I can't wait to return next summer and document the construction as I did this last summer. Once it's all finished it'll be nice to show my kids what it looked like before, during, and after.
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Old August 27th, 2009, 01:02 AM   #10072
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HD cam refreshing again

Agreed the 2013 completion date would be great to see

Any other building with this core design go up as fast?
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Old August 27th, 2009, 01:43 AM   #10073
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Earthcam Link

Here is the link for the Earthcam That is refreshed every 20-30 seconds. Enjoy
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/groundzero/
After the commercial plays chose the little picture under the screen to the right. Then you can right click on it and zoom in. Enjoy.
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Old August 27th, 2009, 02:09 AM   #10074
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also remember freedom tower doesnt consist of 108floors, it has 84.

at lev5 or 200ft/61m level, there are then 70 floors which will rise 1 per week, that 70 weeks. to reach 350m/1150ft.
so how long before they reach lev5/61m? xmas? if so then 18months for 70 levels. thus lev75 by mid 2011? then top floors another 6months, theus reach 417m by xmas 2011?
then spire and cladding add 1 year, thus completed xmas 2012? then interiors ready for 6months later, say mid 2013?

image hosted on flickr
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Old August 27th, 2009, 03:54 AM   #10075
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CULWULLA View Post
also remember freedom tower doesnt consist of 108floors, it has 84.

at lev5 or 200ft/61m level, there are then 70 floors which will rise 1 per week, that 70 weeks. to reach 350m/1150ft.
so how long before they reach lev5/61m? xmas? if so then 18months for 70 levels. thus lev75 by mid 2011? then top floors another 6months, theus reach 417m by xmas 2011?
then spire and cladding add 1 year, thus completed xmas 2012? then interiors ready for 6months later, say mid 2013?
That's optimistic (but doable). I don't think there is any mention of further height for the rest of the year to 1WTC in the PA's quarterly report. Their 6 month projection (from 2Q 09 report) just mentioned they'll be finishing out the 2nd and 3rd floors by the end of the year.

It'll be another two months at least IMO for all the perimeter columns and spandral (horizontal) beams to be put in. That's taking into account the new steel needing to be added to the north core (which for the south core took a period of several weekends), the western side of the plaza to be poured. A new wooden "road" for the crane to drive on, a few days even for the new crane to be assembled. Weekends off. Holidays, etc.

All we can do is watch and wait. 6 months ago it seemed like we were never going to see new perimeter columns installed, now it's finally hear. 6 months from now we might finally see the south crane jump again.
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Old August 27th, 2009, 06:57 AM   #10076
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This tower is nice and modern,I love it.
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Old August 27th, 2009, 10:41 AM   #10077
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3rd QTR 2013 end of story :P
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Old August 27th, 2009, 01:19 PM   #10078
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Remember, they are building above & directly abutting an active busy transit station & its tracks, active and busy exposed subway tunnel, as well as a busy pedestrian throughway. At the same time they are building the memorial, the connecting passageway for the transportation hub, 4 wtc, and prepping for starting the hub itself, including removing the final remnants of below grade floors on the northeast corner of the site which will allow building 2 & 3 to begin. All of this with limited access and having to divert traffic. It's amazing they can build anything at all on this site, it's clogged with other activity 14 hours of the day. When the original WTC towers were being built, they were simple, organizing construction was easy, and they were not building on a former pile of rubble.

That all being said, it is lame that only a bit of tower 1 is above street level after so many years. Comcast center, a massive & somewhat controversial building was proposed, begun, and completed and occupied, while 1 wtc sat below grade level in the same time frame. Comcast center is also built above a train station.

- A
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Old August 27th, 2009, 02:51 PM   #10079
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CULWULLA View Post
also remember freedom tower doesnt consist of 108floors, it has 84.
/2672/3837945841_879f996151_o.png[/img]
It would be less confusing if they didn't refer to the 84th floor as "floor 108".
That might also be part of the floor a week fuzziness. I imagine the 40 foot floors will take more time than the 13 foot ones.
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Old August 27th, 2009, 04:08 PM   #10080
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Looks like the steel is goin' up on the north core...
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