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Old September 25th, 2007, 01:57 AM   #381
yyzer
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Quote:
Apparently Copa Airlines of Panama is to start a YYZ route next year.
I hope you are right, Filip....there's been rumblings about Copa for a couple of years now, but they will need a new bilateral agreement giving them access to YYZ....should be a workable route, both T.O. and Panama are banking centres, plus Copa can sell connections over their PTY hub....hope they get it, it is one of those niche markets that can really add to YYZ's overall strength...
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Old September 25th, 2007, 12:07 PM   #382
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Will this be non-stop Dubai to Toronto?
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Old September 25th, 2007, 03:15 PM   #383
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Filip & yyzer,
Like Cayman Airways, Copa has been eyeing YYZ for a few years now.
What will come of it is anyone's guess as currently any designated airline of Panama (no airline is currently designated by Panama) can only fly to either YVR or YUL. So a revision to the current bilateral agreement would be required to permit YYZ flights.
I haven't heard of any imminent discussions between the two countries re: air agreements. But that doesn't mean anything right?

rick1016,
If you're referring to the new Emirates flights,
yes it is non-stop Dubai-Toronto.
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Old September 25th, 2007, 03:47 PM   #384
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Canada-UAE Bilateral Update

Hi guys,

As mentioned earlier I had an insider attend the Emirates roadshow in Toronto last week. Looks like some quiet negotiations have been ongoing between the two parties.
Emirates has adopted a more friendly posture instead of their initial "daily or nothing" service demands back in the 2002 negotiations. Therefore the CTA has been more accomodating of their requests.
IMO once EK has operated a full year on the route and shows how strong demand is (which everyone already knows exists) a new bilateral allowing a minimum of 14 frequencies a week (daily for EY and EK) will be signed in early 2009. There is also an outside chance of a full open skies.
So bottom line... things are moving along nicely.
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Old September 25th, 2007, 04:33 PM   #385
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great news, yyzhyd...

Transport Canada has done some good things over the past 12 months, and the list of carriers without access to YYZ has been shrinking..

There are still a few needing bilateral permission to fly to Toronto, and where a viable service could be flown, imo...

Middle East..Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt
Europe..Turkey, Romania (should be covered by an open skies EU-Canada deal)
Africa..Ethiopia, S. Africa
S. America..Panama, Guyana (currently have Hamilton only)
Asia..Singapore, Taiwan

Not too many, really....then there are the existing agreements, many of which are pretty restricted, which could be expanded - especially places like the UAE, Brazil and S. Korea...but it's not that huge a list...

It's so gratifying to see YYZ bloom, after so many years of neglect..

Last edited by yyzer; September 25th, 2007 at 05:01 PM.
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Old September 25th, 2007, 07:50 PM   #386
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Cayman Airways too? Now THAT'S interesting!

Pearson is definitely blooming... It's becoming entertaining to watch!

IB: More and more rumblings suggest IB will be here come 2008... I'm excited!

Last edited by Filip; September 25th, 2007 at 08:02 PM.
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Old September 25th, 2007, 09:41 PM   #387
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Filip View Post
Cayman Airways too? Now THAT'S interesting!

Pearson is definitely blooming... It's becoming entertaining to watch!

IB: More and more rumblings suggest IB will be here come 2008... I'm excited!
Some of my "predictions" for the next 12-24 months:

KE - daily
CX - 2x daily
QR - 5x weekly
KL - 2x daily
EY - daily
EK -daily
AI - daily
CA or CZ - daily
LH - 2x daily
JL - 3x weekly
S7 - 3x weekly


The Cayman Islands have strong ties to Canada through the financial services industry and KX has been lamenting for a while that AC picks up the spoils. Last time I was there I flew AC to MIA and then on KX to GCM. Nice little airline. If only they could afford to get a couple 738s.

IB in 2008? A longshot at best IMO, but I hope I'm proven wrong.
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Old September 25th, 2007, 11:14 PM   #388
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Wow.. So the newbies would be Qatar Airways, Air China/China Southern, S7 from Russia and JAL... Now that would be beyond awesome!
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Old September 26th, 2007, 01:17 AM   #389
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I doubt JAL...
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Old September 26th, 2007, 01:24 AM   #390
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It's great to see Pearson doing things right. #29 in the world! This ranking should surely rise dramatically over the next 10 years. Toronto has so much going for it. Geography, demographics, economics, and excellent transportaion links are all favourable. There is no reason why Pearson can't do as much business as any of the top 10 airports in the world. That Pearson isn't a top 10 airport already is telling.

Compare with #12 Amsterdam which handled 46 million passengers in 2006. Both Toronto and Amsterdam are centrally located in the middle of a massive rich market. Both are located next to their region's dominant nation: Holland borders larger France and Germany, Canada borders the USA. Both Amsterdam and Toronto are rich cities with diversified economies and home to large multinational corporations. Where Toronto trumps Amsterdam is in population size and the links that their respective populations have to the outside world.

Pearson should be the busier airport, but handled only 31 million passengers in 2006. Volumes should be double what they are. Pearson hasn't prospered as it should. The situation seems to have changed though.

Last edited by isaidso; September 26th, 2007 at 01:42 AM.
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Old September 26th, 2007, 01:50 AM   #391
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Quote:
Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
It's great to see Pearson doing things right. #29 in the world! This ranking should surely rise dramatically over the next 10 years. Toronto has so much going for it. Geography, demographics, economics, and excellent transportaion links are all favourable. There is no reason why Pearson can't do as much business as any of the top 10 airports in the world. That Pearson isn't a top 10 airport already is telling.

Compare with #12 Amsterdam which handled 46 million passengers in 2006. Both Toronto and Amsterdam are centrally located in the middle of a massive rich market. Both are located next to their region's dominant nation: Holland borders larger France and Germany, Canada borders the USA. Both Amsterdam and Toronto are rich cities with diversified economies and home to large multinational corporations. Where Toronto trumps Amsterdam is in population size and the links that their respective populations have to the outside world.

Pearson should be the busier airport, but handled only 31 million passengers in 2006. Volumes should be double what they are. Pearson hasn't prospered as it should. The situation seems to have changed though.
I hope you're right.. Pearson is very well positioned to be a global leader.

Anyway, what bothers me is: is this new growth Pearson is experiencing sustainable or is it merely a bubble like the 1990's were, where almost every global airline (even a few niche ones) flew to YYZ?
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Old September 26th, 2007, 02:12 AM   #392
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What were the reasons for the pull out in the 1990's? Regardless, the future success of Pearson lies in how it is managed and marketed. Pearson must be ran as a regional hub for the entire Great Lakes region, not just a Canadian hub. If barriers to this exist, they should be negotiated away.

There is a massive population across the border that isn't being fought for. If someone in Cleveland or Buffalo wants to fly to Milan or Kingston, but they can't fly from their city on the date desired, Pearson should steal this business. Currently, these people only consider American alternatives. In short, Pearson needs to be their hub. Attracting a big US airline to use Pearson as a hub would be a massive coup.

A dedicated rail link to downtown is a must. Travel must be seamless, easy, and competitively priced. Pearson falls down here, but is attracting international airlines despite these negatives. It is very promising that this is being accomplished under a less than optimal situation.

The final piece of the puzzle is sky high airline ticket prices in Canada. Canadian airline prices are completely out of whack compared to what is possible throughout Europe and the United States. Passenger traffic should surge if prices were brought in line. Why can I fly from Heathrow to Oslo for $30, yet Pearson to Ottawa is triple that? When you start looking at prices to smaller centres the difference is shocking. Halifax to St. John's? Toronto to Thunder Bay? You can fly from New York to Paris for cheaper.

Last edited by isaidso; September 26th, 2007 at 02:19 AM.
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Old September 26th, 2007, 02:14 AM   #393
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadian74 View Post
I doubt JAL...
Any reason why not or just your opinion?

isaidso,
good points but remember that Toronto is primarily and O&D market whereas AMS is primarily a Transit hub for KLM.
Now granted AMS gets it's fair share of O&D, especially from tourists (especially British) wanting to experience the "flavour" of Amsterdam.
Also Amsterdam is a much more mature market, Toronto on the other hand has experienced explosive population growth in just the last 15 years. Many new immigrants are not in a position to be VFR passengers nor are they apt to spend significant money flying around on vacations to the USA etc.

Add in the creation of the airline alliances that prompted widespread shedding of routes in lieu of codeshares, not to mention the effects of 9-11 and you can see why YYZ hasn't reached a higher ranking sooner.

In the last few years what you're seeing is Toronto market is starting to mature and this will continue to help the growth of Pearson.

In the end I expect several airlines will at least attempt a YYZ route but yields and loads and their management will determine success or failure.

Case and point is PK. They should be cleaning up ex-JFK but can't even support a 3x weekly flight to Pakistan.
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Old September 26th, 2007, 02:17 AM   #394
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Quote:
KE - daily
CX - 2x daily
QR - 5x weekly
KL - 2x daily
EY - daily
EK -daily
AI - daily
CA or CZ - daily
LH - 2x daily
JL - 3x weekly
S7 - 3x weekly
Very interesting predictions, yyzhyd....actually, Japan Air Lines is probably the biggest missing link at YYZ....I find it incredible that they are not flying here yet....having said that, there will be an inbound JL 747 charter tomorrow, Sept 26th, into terminal 3 at about 1730...I believe it is a "fall foliage" charter. I think there is at least one other as well, expected in a few days...

and S7..?!...wow!

Last edited by yyzer; September 26th, 2007 at 04:09 AM.
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Old September 26th, 2007, 02:24 AM   #395
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Quote:
Why can I fly from Heathrow to Oslo for $40, yet Pearson to Ottawa is triple that?
Everybody thinks that the expenses that airlines endure in Canada are a zero-sum expense...but that is not true...airlines simply pass on the added costs of landing fees/counter rent/excise tax on jet fuel/etc/etc onto their passengers....it's really we, the travelling public, that pay the landing fees that Ottawa charges...when an airline says it can't afford the landing fees at YYZ, they are really saying that they are unable to raise the ticket prices to cover for the landing fees.....so far, it seems, the public will pay...
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Old September 26th, 2007, 02:32 AM   #396
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Why can I fly from Heathrow to Oslo for $40, yet Pearson to Ottawa is triple that?
Quote:
Originally Posted by yyzer View Post
Everybody thinks that the expenses that airlines endure in Canada are a zero-sum expense...but that is not true...airlines simply pass on the added costs of landing fees/counter rent/excise tax on jet fuel/etc/etc onto their passengers....it's really we, the travelling public, that pay the landing fees that Ottawa charges...when an airline says it can't afford the landing fees at YYZ, they are really saying that they are unable to raise the ticket prices to cover for the landing fees.....so far, it seems, the public will pay...
Not to mention you've got a choice of BA, BD, SK LH and KL on LHR-OSL as opposed to just AC and WS on YYZ-YOW.
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Old September 26th, 2007, 03:20 AM   #397
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yyzhyd View Post
Any reason why not or just your opinion?

isaidso,
good points but remember that Toronto is primarily and O&D market whereas AMS is primarily a Transit hub for KLM.
Now granted AMS gets it's fair share of O&D, especially from tourists (especially British) wanting to experience the "flavour" of Amsterdam.
Also Amsterdam is a much more mature market, Toronto on the other hand has experienced explosive population growth in just the last 15 years. Many new immigrants are not in a position to be VFR passengers nor are they apt to spend significant money flying around on vacations to the USA etc.

Add in the creation of the airline alliances that prompted widespread shedding of routes in lieu of codeshares, not to mention the effects of 9-11 and you can see why YYZ hasn't reached a higher ranking sooner.

In the last few years what you're seeing is Toronto market is starting to mature and this will continue to help the growth of Pearson.

In the end I expect several airlines will at least attempt a YYZ route but yields and loads and their management will determine success or failure.

Case and point is PK. They should be cleaning up ex-JFK but can't even support a 3x weekly flight to Pakistan.
I heard PK is struggling in YYZ.. Is this true?
I assume they'll be pulling out when EK flies in.

It's just interesting reading up how back in the 90's, Thai had a dedicated A310 in Seattle just to fly to Toronto! Or, how Qantas dragged one of their 767's all the way here too.. Incredible isn't it? It seems the "hot" thing to do back then was to have a YYZ route!
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Old September 26th, 2007, 03:53 AM   #398
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Hey Filip,

I actually heard from a reliable source that YYZ is PK's most profitable station in N. America. I wouldn't assume anything about them just yet. They have just announced cutbacks at JFK, but the YYZ schedule is holding for now (interesting, eh?).

Regarding TG, they tried everything to make their YYZ-BKK flights work, which included fifth freedoms to, iirc, Tokyo or maybe Taipei, but the route was just too long, and too thin, to be profitable. BKK is a long way from YYZ, and it was a long time ago in the early 1990s. I don't think we will ever see them here again, although you never know.

As for QF, they only flew here for a brief time in 2000, just before, during, and just after the Sydney olympics. I never heard whether they even considered making YYZ a permanent route, it was probably just for the olympic games.

yyzer
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Old September 26th, 2007, 04:44 AM   #399
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yyzhyd View Post
Any reason why not or just your opinion?
There probably isn't much demand... AC is back to A340 on YYZ-NRT (3 x weekly?) this winter... They can't fill 3 A340s in a week so I doubt there is room for another airline such as JAL.
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Old September 26th, 2007, 05:11 AM   #400
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yyzhyd:

what is O&D? Overseas and domestic? Does O&D versus transit hub make that big a difference? For example, everyone flying to Havana from small town Ontario still needs to fly into Toronto to catch the flight, don't they? Or are you saying that they don't fly, they drive to Toronto? Amsterdam is primarily a transit hub for KLM, but isn't the same true for Pearson and Air Canada? Even if Pearson is only a hub for Ontario, the population served is 13 million versus 17 million for all of Holland.

Your explanation regarding the degree of maturation of Pearson versus Amsterdam sounds right. It seems that Pearson only now has in place key attributes that will make it boom.

Regarding airline prices. I understand the customer ends up paying to cover landing fees, etc. but the point was that the entire cost involved in flying in Canada is not competitive with other jurisdictions. My friend did pay $40 in total to fly to Oslo from Heathrow. There is more competition at Heathrow, as someone mentioned, but that is part of the problem. With more foreign airlines choosing to fly into Pearson, competition should increase, and prices should fall.

PS. You guys certainly like your abbreviations!

Last edited by isaidso; September 26th, 2007 at 05:17 AM.
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