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Old November 18th, 2010, 07:32 PM   #1641
hkskyline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YU-AMC View Post
I have quite a few Sri Lankan friends from that part of the world. We are talking about the state torn a part from the war that lasted well over the two decades. The fact that we have so many Sri lankans does not mean anything. Some lost the war and can't go back there. The other side is also fed up with it and moved on. Than you have the rest that have not been there in a long time. That's what you have when you break down the demographic chart. Also the ones that go on a visit, they may go once in a year, and (that is not much to support the flights).
Once again, it highlights population alone is not enough to analyze whether a route is profitable and worthy to launch.
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Old November 18th, 2010, 11:30 PM   #1642
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
Once again, it highlights population alone is not enough to analyze whether a route is profitable and worthy to launch.
And once again, my point was misunderstood...

Quote:
with Air India, EK and EY running full flights to the sub-continent, there could be a strong enough business component to make the flights profitable for Sri Lankan - AI, EK, EY run-off if you will...just my opinion.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 03:35 AM   #1643
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^ The fact that other airlines are flying to other cities on the subcontinent does not mean a direct flight to Sri Lanka would be profitable in light of the non-demographic factors raised.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 08:00 AM   #1644
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Part2

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Originally Posted by Toronto_41 View Post
Excellent news. I look forward to this happening. Was expecting them sooner since there was an agreement I believe last year. Thanks for posting.
Belgrade was served from Toronto for around two decades on some very respectable schedules by JU.

They started off with some 707s from PIA and ex Orient.



Than in 1979 the DC10s were purchased. YU-AMB always seemed to make its way to YYZ. YU-AMC to LAX.



Than in 1992 Mid May, some of its last flights. You can see the orange-ish facade of Bristol Westin hotel.





I wish I were there on the airport road to see it land. I am afraid that will never take place again. I am a JU DC10 nerd. Always keep asking the older generations in my church about the flights and their experiences.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 05:22 PM   #1645
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^ The fact that other airlines are flying to other cities on the subcontinent does not mean a direct flight to Sri Lanka would be profitable in light of the non-demographic factors raised.
That's why it's called an opinion. Have I done a study? No. Have you? No. I don't think airlines just blurt out possible routes without having some (even the slightest) idea of whether it will be profitable. They mentioned a stopover at LGW, so there could be some business drummed up there. Who knows. It was an opinion based on a posted link. I'm not getting into a debate about it the same way we got into it about EK. We don't have anywhere near enough information.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 05:23 PM   #1646
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That's why it's called an opinion. Have I done a study? No. Have you? No. I don't think airlines just blurt out possible routes without having some (even the slightest) idea of whether it will be profitable. They mentioned a stopover at LGW, so there could be some business drummed up there. Who knows. It was an opinion based on a posted link. I'm not getting into a debate about it the same way we got into it about EK. We don't have anywhere near enough information.
So does Sri Lankan have 5th freedom rights to pick up British passengers for the onward journey to Canada? What if people get off the plane in London and nobody else can take their place? Then that's a lot of lost revenue across the Atlantic.

People are entitled to their opinions but that does not mean every opinion is sufficiently educated and thought out.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 05:30 PM   #1647
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
People are entitled to their opinions but that does not mean every opinion is sufficiently educated and thought out.
Ah, the second person to receive that comment.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 11:07 PM   #1648
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So does Sri Lankan have 5th freedom rights to pick up British passengers for the onward journey to Canada? What if people get off the plane in London and nobody else can take their place? Then that's a lot of lost revenue across the Atlantic.

People are entitled to their opinions but that does not mean every opinion is sufficiently educated and thought out.
Well they might...that's why I said "who knows". Your implication that I haven't put any thought into whether or not this might be a profitable route is a little presumtious. At this point I expect nothing less...
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Old November 20th, 2010, 09:30 AM   #1649
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
So does Sri Lankan have 5th freedom rights to pick up British passengers for the onward journey to Canada? What if people get off the plane in London and nobody else can take their place? Then that's a lot of lost revenue across the Atlantic.

People are entitled to their opinions but that does not mean every opinion is sufficiently educated and thought out.
Spot on. Lets just look at Malev when they used to come to YYZ. It was much of shorter long haul. They could not make money because the front cabin was not full. My parents bought the tickets just a few days before the departure and paid already high price. As soon as they were to check in, the agent asked them to pitch in extra if they wanted for the premium seats. You can tell how eager he was to sell the seats. Let alone that Malev always had a decent LF in the coach class. Now image what risk it is to send some A340 to YYZ... As I said, a long shot for sure.
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Old November 20th, 2010, 04:39 PM   #1650
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Originally Posted by ACT7 View Post
Well they might...that's why I said "who knows". Your implication that I haven't put any thought into whether or not this might be a profitable route is a little presumtious. At this point I expect nothing less...
Your "might" is not plausible to begin with because you haven't analyzed sufficient facts to come up with an educated "might happen" scenario.
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Old November 20th, 2010, 05:02 PM   #1651
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Your "might" is not plausible to begin with because you haven't analyzed sufficient facts to come up with an educated "might happen" scenario.
Well thank goodness you're here to point out "what if's" that may or may not happen. Sri Lankan psoted a statement about possible flights. If you're so certain that it's impossible, write to them.
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Old November 20th, 2010, 05:05 PM   #1652
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Well thank goodness you're here to point out "what if's" that may or may not happen. Sri Lankan psoted a statement about possible flights. If you're so certain that it's impossible, write to them.
Well, they're going to have to pay me to be their advisor. They're probably hesitating, because you say they posted about 'possible' flights, and not a new route announcement.
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Old November 20th, 2010, 07:47 PM   #1653
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
Well, they're going to have to pay me to be their advisor. They're probably hesitating, because you say they posted about 'possible' flights, and not a new route announcement.
So then in a nutshell, no one is right because there is not a definite no or a route announcement.

Until there is either, no one can claim to be right or wrong because none are privy to the facts behind the route.

Therefore this is speculation and that is the reason i posted it.
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Old November 21st, 2010, 04:44 AM   #1654
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So then in a nutshell, no one is right because there is not a definite no or a route announcement.

Until there is either, no one can claim to be right or wrong because none are privy to the facts behind the route.

Therefore this is speculation and that is the reason i posted it.
So you are speculating based on a lack of understanding of the metrics behind route planning, while I am speculating based on a larger set of factors that airlines think about before they open routes, such as whether they have rights to do so, aircraft range, operating costs, and revenue potential.

That's a big difference.
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Old November 21st, 2010, 05:59 AM   #1655
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So you are speculating based on a lack of understanding of the metrics behind route planning, while I am speculating based on a larger set of factors that airlines think about before they open routes, such as whether they have rights to do so, aircraft range, operating costs, and revenue potential.

That's a big difference.
Basically you're implying that no one seems to understand route metrics the way you do (thanks for exposing your ego to the rest of us). If someone posts a link from an airline it doesn't mean that he doesn't have an understanding of what goes into a profitable route. Sometimes certain things don't actually need to be said on a forum...such as whether or not a bilateral exists or whether or not 5th freedom rights exist if an airline is going to be making a stop at a secondary hub or enroute airport. I think most people on this forum understand that if an airline is going to be flying into a city that certain things, at a minimum, need to be achieved. You're not the only one on here who can think critically but sometimes not everything needs to be spelled out.
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Old November 21st, 2010, 07:40 AM   #1656
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Basically you're implying that no one seems to understand route metrics the way you do (thanks for exposing your ego to the rest of us). If someone posts a link from an airline it doesn't mean that he doesn't have an understanding of what goes into a profitable route. Sometimes certain things don't actually need to be said on a forum...such as whether or not a bilateral exists or whether or not 5th freedom rights exist if an airline is going to be making a stop at a secondary hub or enroute airport. I think most people on this forum understand that if an airline is going to be flying into a city that certain things, at a minimum, need to be achieved. You're not the only one on here who can think critically but sometimes not everything needs to be spelled out.
You are more than welcome to provide your reasons and thoughts on why you think Sri Lankan's route to Toronto via Gatwick can succeed. Obviously looking at the population of Sri Lankans living in the Toronto area alone is not sufficient to come to an educated and informed decision.

So you are telling me you considered all the other key factors, such as 5th freedoms, fleet, and the ability of British to fill in the transatlantic sector but did not put them down on paper because these important things don't need to be said but are implicit? So perhaps now you can share a bit more on each of these and any more important factors you assess are important enough but not willingly shared for this discussion.

A bit bewildering you think important things don't need to be written down in a discussion forum so everyone else can discuss. If we all have telepathy then we won't be on SSC to discuss.
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Old November 21st, 2010, 05:15 PM   #1657
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A bit bewildering you think important things don't need to be written down in a discussion forum so everyone else can discuss. If we all have telepathy then we won't be on SSC to discuss.
No, I'm saying obvious things don't need to be spelled out. It wasn't as if someone suggested Sri Lankan should start flying to Toronto out of the blue. It was a statement made by Sri Lankan so I'm saying certain things are implicit in a statement posted by an airline. In fact, I'm not even arguing with you over whether or not 5th freedom rights need to exist or whether Sri Lankan has the available aircraft to fly the route, nor did I say that Toronto's Sri Lankan population alone was enough to sustain a profitable flight to Sri Lanka. You tend to cherry pick the information you want to tear into and ignore other things (go reread all the EK posts for endless examples of that). I also said that there could be enough business travellers as 'run-off' from already full flights to the sub-continent to sustain a flight, but I haven't done a study so who knows.
So let's just move on and refocus on what this thread is supposed to be about. We can set up a separate thread called hksyline vs. ACT7 to duke it out...
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Old November 21st, 2010, 06:58 PM   #1658
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
So you are speculating based on a lack of understanding of the metrics behind route planning, while I am speculating based on a larger set of factors that airlines think about before they open routes, such as whether they have rights to do so, aircraft range, operating costs, and revenue potential.

That's a big difference.
You are worth this much of a responce. Get a life and move on with that superior i know more than you attitude.

I said nothing to take down or diminish your point. What i said is that this is speculation on everyone's part and that there was no right or wrong at this time.

If you cannot accept that, i too would be more than happy to go back and review all u said and point out the full of holes theories u have. One being the logistics of a west coast flight. Funny that because Emirates flies daily to SFO and LAX.
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Last edited by Toronto_41; November 21st, 2010 at 07:32 PM.
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Old November 21st, 2010, 07:07 PM   #1659
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I can back up the comments i just made with an analysis of both the population within the metro Vancouver region and the catchment area within a two hour commute that they can use to justify a daily flight to Vancouver. AF flies to Seattle and also advertises in Vancouver to attract business. Turning that around, Emirates can likewise advertise in Seattle and pick up additional High Yeilding traffic (Microsoft).

Along with a 3 weekly to Calgary just based on the oil traffic that would be flying first or business class tied in with Edmonton also. Plus based on the amount of sub continent traffic going back and forth, they surely can fill a 3 weekly flight. Surely if they can fill 28 flights to NZ, you are telling me that they cannot fill 3 weekly to YYC?

Secondly, airlines donnot normally ask or show interest in a location unless they have done some homework and can justify publicly making comments like that. There normally is some justification behind it. But again, unless you (not specifically HK) are privy to their information, how can anyone speak on their behalf? It is speculation.

Anyhow, moving along.
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Last edited by Toronto_41; November 21st, 2010 at 07:45 PM.
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Old November 22nd, 2010, 06:29 AM   #1660
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Anyways, going back to EK, I always wanted to know who would fly there premium seats... Is there a solid premium market from YYZ-DXB point to point or not? Do trasnit pax fly the expensive seats to their final destinations? What the scenerio with that?
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