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Old November 22nd, 2010, 08:25 AM   #1661
hkskyline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ACT7 View Post
No, I'm saying obvious things don't need to be spelled out. It wasn't as if someone suggested Sri Lankan should start flying to Toronto out of the blue. It was a statement made by Sri Lankan so I'm saying certain things are implicit in a statement posted by an airline. In fact, I'm not even arguing with you over whether or not 5th freedom rights need to exist or whether Sri Lankan has the available aircraft to fly the route, nor did I say that Toronto's Sri Lankan population alone was enough to sustain a profitable flight to Sri Lanka. You tend to cherry pick the information you want to tear into and ignore other things (go reread all the EK posts for endless examples of that). I also said that there could be enough business travellers as 'run-off' from already full flights to the sub-continent to sustain a flight, but I haven't done a study so who knows.
So let's just move on and refocus on what this thread is supposed to be about. We can set up a separate thread called hksyline vs. ACT7 to duke it out...
Fine. Although that "could" is questionable because full flights does not equal profitable flights.
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Old November 22nd, 2010, 08:28 AM   #1662
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Originally Posted by Toronto_41 View Post
You are worth this much of a responce. Get a life and move on with that superior i know more than you attitude.

I said nothing to take down or diminish your point. What i said is that this is speculation on everyone's part and that there was no right or wrong at this time.

If you cannot accept that, i too would be more than happy to go back and review all u said and point out the full of holes theories u have. One being the logistics of a west coast flight. Funny that because Emirates flies daily to SFO and LAX.
So does the demographic and market out of SFO and LAX equate to that of YYZ? Is EK catering for the Indians flying to India via Dubai from those 2 cities, which is the market EK is trying to capture out of YYZ?

Clearly, you need to put more thought into the market forces driving routes. Just because EK flies to SFO and LAX does not mean they fly to YYZ for the same reasons, capturing the same market.
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Old November 22nd, 2010, 08:33 AM   #1663
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Originally Posted by Toronto_41 View Post
I can back up the comments i just made with an analysis of both the population within the metro Vancouver region and the catchment area within a two hour commute that they can use to justify a daily flight to Vancouver. AF flies to Seattle and also advertises in Vancouver to attract business. Turning that around, Emirates can likewise advertise in Seattle and pick up additional High Yeilding traffic (Microsoft).

Along with a 3 weekly to Calgary just based on the oil traffic that would be flying first or business class tied in with Edmonton also. Plus based on the amount of sub continent traffic going back and forth, they surely can fill a 3 weekly flight. Surely if they can fill 28 flights to NZ, you are telling me that they cannot fill 3 weekly to YYC?

Secondly, airlines donnot normally ask or show interest in a location unless they have done some homework and can justify publicly making comments like that. There normally is some justification behind it. But again, unless you (not specifically HK) are privy to their information, how can anyone speak on their behalf? It is speculation.

Anyhow, moving along.

So your speculation completely ignores the huge South Asian population in Vancouver, and their needs to fly home every now and then? So they can pick up some traffic from Seattle? Where are the Microsoft executives flying to? Is there a huge business for them in the Middle East and India that likewise they cannot fly westbound for a shorter flight?

The oil traffic is likely a good reason why EK needs to capture Calgary, but is there sufficient collaboration and investment by Middle Eastern firms in Canada or vice versa to sustain a huge business clientele to fill up the premium seats at the front of the plane? Likewise, is there enough tourism traffic to fill up the seats in the back? I'd think the Emiratis would be interested in a Rocky Mountain holiday, but would they want to fly so far across the Atlantic at triple the flying time for an alternative to the Switzerland and Alps holiday? Is the Calgary / Edmonton area population large enough to fill up a plane to Dubai and transit to somewhere else? Is there a big South Asian or African population there?

While I take note you can understand the drivers behind route planning, I don't think your questions are deep enough to see some obvious problems with opening a profitable new route. I myself am still baffled at why EK asked for Calgary and Vancouver, which appear to be O&D destinations than their business model of transit traffic.
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Old November 22nd, 2010, 08:37 AM   #1664
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Originally Posted by YU-AMC View Post
Anyways, going back to EK, I always wanted to know who would fly there premium seats... Is there a solid premium market from YYZ-DXB point to point or not? Do trasnit pax fly the expensive seats to their final destinations? What the scenerio with that?
I'm also struggling to think who will pay for the premium seats. The trade traffic between the two countries isn't that big, and neither side has significant business interests in the other. So are there that many executives heading out of either side that are willing to pay top dollar for a nice seat? I guess they can oversell Economy and upgrade some of them at the gate.

The only other reason I can think of is the Indian population in the GTA is quite wealthy so they can splurge to fly home. But the price tag is not cheap - I'd think even the wealthiest ones would consider twice.
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Old November 22nd, 2010, 04:41 PM   #1665
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
So does the demographic and market out of SFO and LAX equate to that of YYZ? Is EK catering for the Indians flying to India via Dubai from those 2 cities, which is the market EK is trying to capture out of YYZ?

Clearly, you need to put more thought into the market forces driving routes. Just because EK flies to SFO and LAX does not mean they fly to YYZ for the same reasons, capturing the same market.
See, there you go. I have not put enough thought into it. Lol. Try sticking to one thing at a time. The demographics behind each route is different. Thanks for that news flash. I would have never have known since Germans get on average 5 weeks vacation to start and Canadians two. Do i need to spell it all out for you? I think most are intelligent enough to know each city has their own feel.

The first part i was talking about Sri Lankan. Then i brought up Emirates because of your comments and the logistics of a west coast flight to make a point. How come you did not clearly specify the logistics behind it? Anyhow, clearly we will get no where on this so going forward, really nothing more to say.
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Last edited by Toronto_41; November 23rd, 2010 at 01:52 AM.
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Old November 22nd, 2010, 05:19 PM   #1666
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
Fine. Although that "could" is questionable because full flights does not equal profitable flights.
I said I wouldn't get into again but you kind of force me to. I'm fully aware that "full flights" don't necessarily mean "profitable" ones. Run-off in my mind (again, it seems like it has to be spelled out in bold italics) means that there is potentially profitable business (i.e. high yield) traffic that could exist to justify a flight between Toronto and Sri Lanka. Before you rebut, please make sure you look up the definitions of potentially and could.
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Old November 23rd, 2010, 01:51 AM   #1667
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
So your speculation completely ignores the huge South Asian population in Vancouver, and their needs to fly home every now and then? So they can pick up some traffic from Seattle? Where are the Microsoft executives flying to? Is there a huge business for them in the Middle East and India that likewise they cannot fly westbound for a shorter flight?

The oil traffic is likely a good reason why EK needs to capture Calgary, but is there sufficient collaboration and investment by Middle Eastern firms in Canada or vice versa to sustain a huge business clientele to fill up the premium seats at the front of the plane? Likewise, is there enough tourism traffic to fill up the seats in the back? I'd think the Emiratis would be interested in a Rocky Mountain holiday, but would they want to fly so far across the Atlantic at triple the flying time for an alternative to the Switzerland and Alps holiday? Is the Calgary / Edmonton area population large enough to fill up a plane to Dubai and transit to somewhere else? Is there a big South Asian or African population there?

While I take note you can understand the drivers behind route planning, I don't think your questions are deep enough to see some obvious problems with opening a profitable new route. I myself am still baffled at why EK asked for Calgary and Vancouver, which appear to be O&D destinations than their business model of transit traffic.
So I have to say, that I did not know that there were different levels of speculation. Must go and check that one out. Silly me, I thought speculation was exactly that, speculation.

And what is the point of asking all of those questions when you have no background information to understand what the reasons are behind an airline choosing a route or being interested in starting one? I believe that is qualified as speculation.

Speculation: Reasoning based on inconclusive evidence; conjecture or supposition.

So, on that note, thanks for letting me know about my not thinking things out clearly. I do appreciate your efforts on that and this will be my last responce.
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Old November 23rd, 2010, 04:04 AM   #1668
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Originally Posted by Toronto_41 View Post
So I have to say, that I did not know that there were different levels of speculation. Must go and check that one out. Silly me, I thought speculation was exactly that, speculation.

And what is the point of asking all of those questions when you have no background information to understand what the reasons are behind an airline choosing a route or being interested in starting one? I believe that is qualified as speculation.

Speculation: Reasoning based on inconclusive evidence; conjecture or supposition.

So, on that note, thanks for letting me know about my not thinking things out clearly. I do appreciate your efforts on that and this will be my last responce.
But there is a huge difference between blind speculation and educated speculation. People can speculate without any substance. I consider those rumours. Then there are others that know what they're talking about and come up with something more scientific and reasonable. When there is insufficient preliminary evidence in the first place based on lack of understanding, then I will highly criticize how that "reasoning" came about.

So far you have not offered more detailed explanations on whether you think the Colombo-Gatwick-Toronto route is viable, and whether the route could be potentially viable. If you think my reasoning is false, then feel free to question to points I have raised. But I haven't seen much from you so far in that regard. Perhaps you're too hung up on what 'speculation' means?
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Old November 23rd, 2010, 10:04 AM   #1669
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
I'm also struggling to think who will pay for the premium seats. The trade traffic between the two countries isn't that big, and neither side has significant business interests in the other. So are there that many executives heading out of either side that are willing to pay top dollar for a nice seat? I guess they can oversell Economy and upgrade some of them at the gate.

The only other reason I can think of is the Indian population in the GTA is quite wealthy so they can splurge to fly home. But the price tag is not cheap - I'd think even the wealthiest ones would consider twice.
Something to think about.
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Old November 23rd, 2010, 06:16 PM   #1670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
So far you have not offered more detailed explanations on whether you think the Colombo-Gatwick-Toronto route is viable, and whether the route could be potentially viable. If you think my reasoning is false, then feel free to question to points I have raised. But I haven't seen much from you so far in that regard. Perhaps you're too hung up on what 'speculation' means?
I offer no opinion because if it was a rumour, then that is a combination of true and untrue information. I posted a quote like you do all the time from different papers. So therefore it cannot be a rumour. However, you offered an opinion based on speculation because all the information is not available.

Here is the funny thing, they have done their analysis and have made a determination. Negotiations either have completed or not and possible 5th freedom has or has not been granted. So until more facts are available, i cannot make an educated guess as to what they will do. Maybe they will get the route subsidized. Who knows. I do not.
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Old November 23rd, 2010, 06:18 PM   #1671
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Oh, i lied. That was my last responce. Have a super day!
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Old November 23rd, 2010, 07:59 PM   #1672
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U.A.E. airline rejects claim that more landing rights would have cost jobs
22 November 2010
CP

TORONTO - The U.A.E.'s flagship airline wants to ``set the record straight'' after the federal government argued that tens of thousands of Canadian jobs were at risk if it granted more landing rights to airlines from the Middle-Eastern country.

Dubai-based Emirates is rejecting the claim that Government House leader John Baird made twice in the House of Commons on Friday.

``With regards to the potential for 'tens of thousands of jobs' losses, Emirates has difficulty in understanding this assertion,'' said airline president Tim Clark in a statement sent to The Canadian Press Sunday.

``We can assure the Canadian government that the increased presence of Emirates in Canada will only deliver favourable benefits to the Canadian economy and in particular to the travelling public.''

The dispute over landing rights between Canada and the U.A.E. escalated into a financial, diplomatic and military headache for the governing Conservatives that eventually resulted in the Persian Gulf coast country refusing to renew the lease of a critical Canadian military staging base near Dubai.

The Canadian Forces had been using Camp Mirage rent-free for the past nine years to get troops and equipment into Afghanistan. Moving to a new base is expected to cost Canadian taxpayers at least $300 million.

The U.A.E. has also imposed visa restrictions on visiting Canadians since the flap over landing rights.

An existing decade-old deal gives Emirates and Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways three flights each a week to Toronto. A source close to the negotiations had said the Emirates government was seeking daily flights for each airline to Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver. Canada came back with a counter offer, said the source, that actually reduced the current carrying capacity of the U.A.E. airlines.

In responding to Ottawa's claims, Clark said evidence proves that ``wealth and job creation'' follow from an increased airline presence. He also pointed out that Emirates has never been subsided in any way by the Dubai government.

``Emirates does not seek to swamp Canada with large amounts of capacity; in fact, a fair approach to frequency growth was the proposal recently tabled,'' he said.

Defence Minister Peter MacKay made it clear this week that the government's decision on the landing rights issue caused a rift in Prime Minister Stephen Harper's cabinet. MacKay also suggested it will take 10 years to heal relations with the U.A.E.

But Baird maintained that the U.A.E's offer was ``not in the best interests of Canada.''

When asked to explain the estimate of job losses, Baird said major unions, Air Canada and airport authorities all opposed giving the Emirates expanded landing rights.

Opposition critics had lashed out Baird, with Liberal foreign affairs critic Bob Rae dismissing the claims as ``outlandish'' and ``fear-mongering.''

Rae had said his understanding of the negotiations was that Canada put a ``take it or leave it offer on the table and they're the ones who effectively walked away.''
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Old November 23rd, 2010, 10:40 PM   #1673
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UAE raises the stakes for Canada
Dubai is learning an old lesson, which is that linkage is only good when it works.

link: http://www.canadianbusiness.com/mana...06_10006_10006

By Peter Zimonjic

It's safe to say the business environment in the United Arab Emirates is less friendly to Canadians now than it was a couple of months ago. Back then, Canadians didn't need visas to get into the country, Canada had a key military base there, and, if the website of the UAE's embassy in Ottawa can be believed, there were soon to be more flights between the tiny Gulf state and Canada.

This was the state of play in late September when the UAE and Canada were nearing the end of negotiations to increase landing rights in Toronto, Calgary and Edmonton for the UAE's two state–owned airlines, Etihad Airways and Emirates Airlines. The UAE said three round–trip flights a week, for each airline, to Toronto and back was not enough. But in early October the Canadian government disagreed. It was welcome news to Air Canada. It was concerned UAE's airlines would eat into its market by using the additional flights to route passengers from Canada through Dubai to India, Pakistan and other points east. But while Air Canada celebrated, the UAE plotted to overturn the decision by forcing Canada to play high–stakes diplomatic poker.

Canada had been using Camp Mirage, just outside Dubai, as a forward base for its Afghan mission for nine years. When the deal fell through, the UAE decided to gamble that the base was more important to Canada than landing rights, and sent Canada a 30–day eviction notice. The UAE then tried upping the stakes by refusing to let Defence Minister Peter MacKay fly through its airspace on his return flight from Afghanistan. It was a bad bet. Canada left and is now using bases in Cyprus and Germany; in retaliation, the UAE slapped Canadian travellers with a visa that kicks in Jan. 2.

In a matter of weeks, the UAE turned a seemingly small trade dispute into a military and diplomatic quarrel that has Canadians who do business in the region wondering what's going to happen next. "I don't see how this can get any worse, but you never know," says Walid Hejazi, a professor at the Rotman School of Management who travels to the UAE regularly to teach and network. "This definitely moves Canada–UAE business relations in the wrong direction. This will hurt. The question is, to what extent."

Hejazi is eagerly awaiting the details of coming visa requirements. The UAE government owns both of its airlines, so it could simply include them in the cost of a ticket, or just ask passengers for a few dollars upon arrival in Dubai in exchange for a stamp in their passports. However, if the UAE decides Canadians need to travel to Ottawa to get their visa before they fly, the issue could become what Hejazi calls: "a big administrative uncertainty" that could dissuade Canadians from going to the UAE at all.

It's certainly not great news for Canadian companies trying to do business in the UAE. Bennett Jones, a Canadian law firm specializing in corporate deals on energy and infrastructure, became the first Canadian firm to open an office in the UAE on Nov. 2. The decision to branch into the Gulf was driven by the widespread belief in Bennett Jones and beyond that the UAE is the commercial and financial hub for the Gulf and the best place to take advantage of the trillions in liquidity there just waiting to be invested. "It would be fantastic if all of these issues went away," says Dany Assaf, Bennett Jones's Middle East managing partner. "There's no doubt it would be very positive to have strong and continuing relations on all levels between Canada and the UAE."

Bilateral trade between the two countries stands at $1.8 billion, a number that has risen more than 350% over the decade. Canadian exports account for $1.4 billion of that. Assaf says he doesn't think the dispute will harm Bennett Jones or Canada–UAE business interests on the whole, because growth is strong in the Gulf, and the UAE is a crucial hub.

But Hejazi is far more pessimistic. His office at the Rotman School has been flooded with e–mails from UAE business executives since the dispute kicked off. "The whole perception is that it's building a divide between Canada and the UAE," Hejazi says. "The perception things are going in the wrong direction will limit the extent to which UAE companies will engage with Canadian companies because they don't know what will happen next."

This uncertainty was fuelled by the UAE's decision to aggressively link various elements of its foreign policy. Linkage diplomacy is based on the simple idea that if a country wants action on file A, they will need movement on file B. "The view among officials has always been that it's a dumb way to pursue policy, but that doesn't mean there weren't times when you did it," says Michael Hart, a professor at Carleton University's Norman Paterson School of International Affairs. "One of the ways to concentrate the mind of politicians in the country that you are complaining to is to show them your retaliation list."

Linkage worked for China back in September when it secured the release of a fishing trawler captain taken into custody by Japan after threatening to start a trade war over the issue. But if the UAE was looking for Canada to fold under a similarly styled threat, it had to be upset when another Gulf state, Qatar, quietly signed an aviation agreement with Canada on Nov. 11. The deal will allow Qatar Airways to fly three passenger flights and three cargo flights a week to and from Canada.

"The thing about linkage is, it's a good thing when it works for you and a bad thing when it doesn't," says James Lindsay, a director of studies with the Council on Foreign Relations. "You can counter the linkage by linking to something else or by playing another card."

And while Harper may have just played the Qatar card, no one is celebrating. The game is still on, and neither Canada nor the UAE appears willing to fold.
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Old November 26th, 2010, 07:58 PM   #1674
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so qatar airways is coming to Canada! thats at least some good news, anybody have the specific details (routing, days of week etc.)
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Old November 26th, 2010, 08:54 PM   #1675
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http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/a.../26/c8096.html

MOVING FORWARD ON A NEW AIR RAIL LINK BETWEEN TORONTO'S UNION STATION AND TORONTO PEARSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

Request for qualifications issued for the Air Rail Link Spur

TORONTO, Nov. 26 /CNW/ - On behalf of Metrolinx, Infrastructure Ontario released a request for qualifications (RFQ) today to pre-qualify and short-list teams to design, build and finance a new three-kilometre rail spur for the Air Rail Link (ARL) and a new ARL passenger station at Toronto Pearson International Airport. The rail spur will branch off the Weston Subdivision (from the GO Georgetown South Corridor) and connect to Toronto Pearson International Airport at Terminal 1 (T1).

Beginning in 2015, in time for the Pan/Parapan American Games, the Air Rail Link will provide a premium passenger rail service between Canada's two busiest transportation hubs - Union Station and Toronto Pearson. The ARL will be owned and operated by Metrolinx.

Trains will depart to and from Union Station and Toronto Pearson every 15 minutes with stops at the Bloor and Weston GO stations. The service is expected to eliminate 1.2 million car trips in the first year of operation.

This premium rail service will make it quicker and easier for people to travel between the city's downtown core and its international gateway. The project will encourage economic growth for businesses and communities in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) by creating jobs in design and construction, easing traffic congestion on our roads and reducing air pollution.

The RFQ, available at www.merx.com, is the first step in a competitive process to select a team to deliver the ARL rail spur and new T1 station. RFQ submissions will be evaluated by Infrastructure Ontario and Metrolinx. Together, they will pre-qualify and short-list project teams with design and construction experience, as well as the financial strength and capacity to deliver the project. Short-listed teams will be invited to respond to a request for proposal (RFP) in early 2011.

Metrolinx, the province's regional transportation agency for the GTHA, has been asked by the Government of Ontario to build, own and operate the new premium rail service from Union Station to Toronto Pearson International Airport.

Infrastructure Ontario is working with Metrolinx on procurement and delivery of the ARL spur line and T1 station components under Infrastructure Ontario's Alternative Financing and Procurement Model, which transfers risks associated with designing, constructing, and financing infrastructure projects to the private sector.

Infrastructure Ontario is a Crown corporation dedicated to delivering some of the province's larger and more complex infrastructure renewal projects - ensuring they are built on time and on budget. As well, it is dedicated to providing the public sector and not-for-profit organizations with long-term financing to renew their infrastructure.

Quotes:
"The Government of Ontario is making it more convenient for residents, businesses and travellers by creating a transit link between Toronto Pearson and Toronto's downtown core. This project will benefit our economy, our environment and our quality of life. "
Honourable Bob Chiarelli, Minister of Infrastructure

"Our government is committed to opening the Air Rail Link from Union Station to Toronto Pearson in time for the Toronto 2015 Pan/Parapan American Games. The Air Rail Link will offer a quick and convenient transit option to reduce congestion, create jobs and boost Ontario's economy."
Honourable Kathleen Wynne, Minister of Transportation

"The Air Rail Link is a signature project for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area that will provide a great new transportation option between our nation's two busiest transportation hubs. Metrolinx has already begun the work to deliver this vital service to Toronto and the GTHA in time for the Toronto 2015 Pan/Parapan American Games."
Bruce McCuaig, President and CEO, Metrolinx

"We are very pleased that this project continues to move closer to reality," said Lloyd McCoomb, President and CEO of the Greater Toronto Airports Authority. "We are eager to be able to connect Toronto Pearson to the downtown core and give our airport guests the ability to travel comfortably and reliably between the airport and Union Station. This is a critical piece of the transportation equation for our region, good for the environment and Ontario's global competitiveness."
Lloyd McCoomb, President and CEO, Greater Toronto Airports Authority
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Old November 27th, 2010, 04:43 AM   #1676
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This makes for an interesting reading. 1.9 million Canadians using Buffalo, 700K out of Seattle and the same for Detroit, 600K out of Burlington.

Sorry, I cannot post the whole article but click on the link to review from the Globe and Mail.

An ominous flight pattern: Canadians opting for U.S. airports


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...1815784/page1/
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Old November 28th, 2010, 03:05 AM   #1677
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Just an FYI, Hainan Airlines operated their first PEK-YYZ-PEK flights today, with A340-600 B-6509....
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Old November 28th, 2010, 04:16 AM   #1678
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Someone whos at the airport should get pics of the plane. When did it come in? Does it fly over the pole? Keep us posted.
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Old November 28th, 2010, 04:26 AM   #1679
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Toronto_41 View Post
This makes for an interesting reading. 1.9 million Canadians using Buffalo, 700K out of Seattle and the same for Detroit, 600K out of Burlington.

Sorry, I cannot post the whole article but click on the link to review from the Globe and Mail.

An ominous flight pattern: Canadians opting for U.S. airports


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...1815784/page1/
Interesting article. Doesn't seem like Ottawa sees the big picture though and will continue to bleed Canadian airports dry.
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Old November 28th, 2010, 07:59 AM   #1680
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Just an FYI, Hainan Airlines operated their first PEK-YYZ-PEK flights today, with A340-600 B-6509....
I never knew they had a A346 in their feet. Anyways, looks as if the bird comes in around 1:40 PM in YYZ. Hmm I will see if I can grab come coffee around 1PM and snap a picture of her. However, I see on the GTAA website that it's not daily flight? What days are here? Thanks

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