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Old May 11th, 2007, 10:29 PM   #3521
k25150
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Originally Posted by MasonsInquiries View Post
it's been reduced. hasn't been confirmed yet, but according to the emails steve and peter got the other day, it more than likely will be reduced.

I saw those emails but was thinking that maybe your source was wrong.
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Old May 11th, 2007, 10:30 PM   #3522
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Very disappointing news, but I'm trying to stay optimistic.

Put me in the camp that says if you build now, by the time it's up, there will be plenty more demand.
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Old May 11th, 2007, 10:42 PM   #3523
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That's how many projects are built in Europe. There, the motto is "if you build it they will come", not "they must come before I build it". I don't have any stats saying whether or not that has been successful for developers there, but the fact that they continue to use that policy (including using it to build the now-approved Chicago Spire) says at least something.
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Old May 11th, 2007, 11:00 PM   #3524
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Very disappointing news, but I'm trying to stay optimistic.

Put me in the camp that says if you build now, by the time it's up, there will be plenty more demand.
I second that.
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Old May 12th, 2007, 01:26 AM   #3525
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That's how many projects are built in Europe. There, the motto is "if you build it they will come", not "they must come before I build it". I don't have any stats saying whether or not that has been successful for developers there, but the fact that they continue to use that policy (including using it to build the now-approved Chicago Spire) says at least something.
I would think it would be the opposite since Europe's growth rate is less than ours and in many cases have negative growth.

Nate
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Old May 12th, 2007, 01:54 AM   #3526
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I would think it would be the opposite since Europe's growth rate is less than ours and in many cases have negative growth.

Nate
Thats not true anymore. The US economy has one of the slowest growth rates in the world. We are barely staying out of a recession. Our comsumers don't save and are over loaded with debt. Once you factor in infaltion, wage growth is negative. It is not good.
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Old May 12th, 2007, 02:03 AM   #3527
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Thats not true anymore. The US economy has one of the slowest growth rates in the world. We are barely staying out of a recession. Our comsumers don't save and are over loaded with debt. Once you factor in infaltion, wage growth is negative. It is not good.

I think the growth rate is relative when compared to other nations. Especially new economy countries like India, China and Brazil. They are going from nothing to a lot where as we have had a lot for awhile and naturally growth will slow once you are established.
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Old May 12th, 2007, 02:58 AM   #3528
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I would think it would be the opposite since Europe's growth rate is less than ours and in many cases have negative growth.

Nate
This has nothing to do with the economy, just the way money lenders operate in Europe.
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Old May 12th, 2007, 03:00 AM   #3529
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I was refering to population growth, which, obviously fuels housing needs.

Nate
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Old May 12th, 2007, 03:59 AM   #3530
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This has nothing to do with the economy, just the way money lenders operate in Europe.
Also, most European based companies are half owned by the government. They don't care. It's not their money.
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Old May 12th, 2007, 04:01 AM   #3531
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Spain and Italy are the only major countries in which negative growth is happening. But there is ALWAYS growth in construction of new homes, offices, and stores, no matter the growth of population because people are always moving to new locations, especially the major cities. Population movement is just as important as overall growth.
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Old May 12th, 2007, 06:54 AM   #3532
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Very disappointing news, but I'm trying to stay optimistic.

Put me in the camp that says if you build now, by the time it's up, there will be plenty more demand.
We've seen this before and always survived but as I mentioned in a previous post, it makes you feel pessimistic because it seems like whenever something really big is announced, I find myself waiting for the other shoe to drop. I guess Baltimore has never been SO hot that developers are willing to take the leap of faith that they will beat the cycle when things get better. It seem as though they always take the safe course and scale back or cancel entirely. I actually think that this time builders seem to be in a mood to think past the current downturn. Maybe Baltimore looks better than before or maybe BRAC is a factor or maybe they are less scared of the economic situation but this doesn't look like one of those downturns where nothing gets built anywhere for a couple years.
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Old May 12th, 2007, 01:07 PM   #3533
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I actually think Paterakis may help the downturn

My bet is he builds some more condo's and apartments in Harbor East/Point in the next 2 years. I think with his success with Spinaker Bay and Vue that other builders gained confidence.


Quote:
Originally Posted by scando View Post
We've seen this before and always survived but as I mentioned in a previous post, it makes you feel pessimistic because it seems like whenever something really big is announced, I find myself waiting for the other shoe to drop. I guess Baltimore has never been SO hot that developers are willing to take the leap of faith that they will beat the cycle when things get better. It seem as though they always take the safe course and scale back or cancel entirely. I actually think that this time builders seem to be in a mood to think past the current downturn. Maybe Baltimore looks better than before or maybe BRAC is a factor or maybe they are less scared of the economic situation but this doesn't look like one of those downturns where nothing gets built anywhere for a couple years.
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Old May 12th, 2007, 03:18 PM   #3534
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I agree with WADA. If they start building now, the market will have turned around by the time they are done. However, pre-sales are what the lenders look for so I'm guessing that is what is slowing things down.
pennster mentioned that in europe, "if you build it they will come". this will surely apply to baltimore by 2011. i'm still trying to figure out why so many of these developers are pulling out of their deals to build supertalls here. we have 40,000-45,000 coming to the baltimore/washington metro area from BRAC, so we know right there, without a doubt, that they are indeed coming. also,we have a TON of folks from DC that are moving here and commuting back to DC for work. so, there, we have everything we need. the stage is set......baltimore just has to do everything possible to get ready for the showcase.

like someone posted earlier, many of these people will be looking for that "citylife". the olmstead, 300EP, 10IH, the dave holmes development near johns hopkins, and many others have been either delayed or scrapped. it's just so frustrating.
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Old May 12th, 2007, 07:44 PM   #3535
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MasonsInquiries View Post
pennster mentioned that in europe, "if you build it they will come". this will surely apply to baltimore by 2011. i'm still trying to figure out why so many of these developers are pulling out of their deals to build supertalls here. we have 40,000-45,000 coming to the baltimore/washington metro area from BRAC, so we know right there, without a doubt, that they are indeed coming. also,we have a TON of folks from DC that are moving here and commuting back to DC for work. so, there, we have everything we need. the stage is set......baltimore just has to do everything possible to get ready for the showcase.

like someone posted earlier, many of these people will be looking for that "citylife". the olmstead, 300EP, 10IH, the dave holmes development near johns hopkins, and many others have been either delayed or scrapped. it's just so frustrating.
With DC's real estate market in a pretty solid recession and local (DC metro) job growth and procurement spending falling very quickly, I'd say the number of people fleeing to Baltimore will likely fall to a trickle. It's never been a huge number, but the pressures are easing for the DC folks.
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Old May 12th, 2007, 10:17 PM   #3536
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^I thought the real estate market in metro DC (per discussion in another thread on this forum) varied a bit, wherein the District was still doing well, versus the suburbs.

Also, I thought the rate of job growth was falling, but otherwise still relatively high and growing nonetheless. (?)

Nate
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Old May 12th, 2007, 11:14 PM   #3537
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^I thought the real estate market in metro DC (per discussion in another thread on this forum) varied a bit, wherein the District was still doing well, versus the suburbs.

Also, I thought the rate of job growth was falling, but otherwise still relatively high and growing nonetheless. (?)

Nate
The District is essentially flat YoY, but we're talking about + 2% vs. -6% by locality, small changes that are well within any margin of error. Either way, it's a regional market, so whether Arlington is down, Bethesda up, etc., it's pretty irrelevant.

As for job growth...

The DC region's economic advantages have been pretty much erased over the last few years (incomes don't go nearly as far as they used to here... as an example, my company is having a TERRIBLE time keeping employees and an even worse time finding replacements, especially younger ones, in their late 20s to early 40s. I'm the next casualty I believe ) so it doesn't make sense for a lot of companies to expand here.

Also, federal procurement spending growth is about 15% of what it was in the early part of this decade. No matter what some people on this forum say, the DC economy is federal government spending, nothing else really matters when compared to our size. In the last year, NY, LA, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, and others have all outperformed DC in absolute growth whereas DC used to be the clear leader. The GRP growth rate is now approximately equal to the US GDP growth rate, just very slightly higher. I believe we're looking at about 40,000 new jobs a year for the foreseeable future. It's perfectly fine, but with housing prices having completely adjusted to both population increases and the drop in interest rates, I don't believe we'll see much price growth for at least 5 years.
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Old May 13th, 2007, 12:05 AM   #3538
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Well, the lack of price growth is really a good thing, anyway. As long as it exceeds the rate of inflation, we'll be good.

Nate
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Old May 13th, 2007, 01:27 AM   #3539
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HAudidoody View Post
The District is essentially flat YoY, but we're talking about + 2% vs. -6% by locality, small changes that are well within any margin of error. Either way, it's a regional market, so whether Arlington is down, Bethesda up, etc., it's pretty irrelevant.

As for job growth...

The DC region's economic advantages have been pretty much erased over the last few years (incomes don't go nearly as far as they used to here... as an example, my company is having a TERRIBLE time keeping employees and an even worse time finding replacements, especially younger ones, in their late 20s to early 40s. I'm the next casualty I believe ) so it doesn't make sense for a lot of companies to expand here.

Also, federal procurement spending growth is about 15% of what it was in the early part of this decade. No matter what some people on this forum say, the DC economy is federal government spending, nothing else really matters when compared to our size. In the last year, NY, LA, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, and others have all outperformed DC in absolute growth whereas DC used to be the clear leader. The GRP growth rate is now approximately equal to the US GDP growth rate, just very slightly higher. I believe we're looking at about 40,000 new jobs a year for the foreseeable future. It's perfectly fine, but with housing prices having completely adjusted to both population increases and the drop in interest rates, I don't believe we'll see much price growth for at least 5 years.
Real estate prices may not be rising, but job growth and population growth are only hitting a mild slowdown which will pick up within the next few years again, just as real estate prices will begin to creep upward within the next year or two. Job growth predictions and population estimates take into account this type of ebb and flow.
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Old May 13th, 2007, 02:25 AM   #3540
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With DC's real estate market in a pretty solid recession and local (DC metro) job growth and procurement spending falling very quickly, I'd say the number of people fleeing to Baltimore will likely fall to a trickle. It's never been a huge number, but the pressures are easing for the DC folks.
Despite what you want to believe, the truth of the matter is that there are more people leaving the District more than ever because it costs so much to live there. I went to Georgetown University and Howard University for undergrad and George Washington University for post grad, so trust me. I know. It's just so expensive to live there. Ridiculously high.
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