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Old September 23rd, 2007, 03:14 PM   #3321
NoAllegiance
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More Progress.

Nice! There has been more progress on this site than I had anticipated. More is better, as they say.
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Old September 23rd, 2007, 03:32 PM   #3322
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The "white things"

They are used to create spaces inside the concrete guide wall, so the cassions can be drilled through them to form a circular secant wall enclosing the core.

Last edited by Astounded; September 23rd, 2007 at 03:51 PM.
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Old September 23rd, 2007, 04:50 PM   #3323
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thx Astounded
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Old September 23rd, 2007, 09:24 PM   #3324
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ritchie Rich View Post
Hey Cheeps,

Why don't you take an English class and correct your tagline?

"Chicago rules!" OR "Chicago does rule!"

If you're going to invoke our city's name, do it correctly....


What???
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Old September 23rd, 2007, 10:29 PM   #3325
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I wonder how deep will they dig with that enormous tower? It must be challenging because it is just at the side of the river. I am pretty sure they already calculated ways on how not to let the water get in but I wonder how will they do it?
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Old September 23rd, 2007, 10:52 PM   #3326
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaeus View Post
I wonder how deep will they dig with that enormous tower? It must be challenging because it is just at the side of the river. I am pretty sure they already calculated ways on how not to let the water get in but I wonder how will they do it?
29 caissons socketed into the bedrock 110' down ( 120' total ? )

They will use a secant wall to keep the river out.

The basements go down 70' 7 levels of parking and services.

Last edited by harryc; September 24th, 2007 at 01:05 AM.
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Old September 23rd, 2007, 11:56 PM   #3327
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Thanks.
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Old September 24th, 2007, 05:22 AM   #3328
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Quote:
Originally Posted by feworkr View Post
Like Helmut says, I'm not negative, just realistic. Let me draw the analogy again: 50 E. Chestnut - 4 years - 34 units -$3mil. each - not sold out. (Last count I was privvy to - only 22 sold) Spire - 1193 units - $1.5 mil each avg. - how long to sell? 34 is to 1193 as 4 years is to - - - 140 years. Hope their sales staff is young!
Please tell me that this was thinly veiled sarcasm, as the complete misunderstanding of how reality works is shocking and humorous. This is what I guess is an overapplication of poorly understood math. Sales is not something that linearly scales. But ok, let's work with your basic assumption. According to some basic googling with numbers from the National Association of Realtors, it took an average of 4 weeks for a home to sell after hitting the market. From the same source, in 2005 there were 7072000 home sales. By your thin logic, it should've taken 4 weeks * 7072000 = 544000 years for all those homes to sale. Wow I hope America will be around for that long!

Unlike what you seem to percieve, there is not a line of people at 50 E Chestnut and another line of people at the Chicago Spire, and there are no cuts allowed and each person spends a specific amount of time at the front of the line before the next person is allowed their chance. That's not how real estate works at all. It simply is just about how much of a demand there is in the market and how quickly the market can absorb an influx of new units. And I have to say, Chicago Spire and 50 E. Chestnut are in completely different real estate markets at that. Not just from a target demographic sort of way (iirc, 50 E. Chestnut is all about having nothing but massive floor-spanning penthouses on each floor), but also geographically. Chicago Spire is not only all but on the river, but is in Streeterville whereas only the most loose and deceptive of real estate agents could claim that 50 E. Chestnut is in Streeterville. There's alot of naivete if you think you can treat two such disparate real estate markets with such similarity.

Moreover, you have a building whose sales are going to be conducted over the next half-decade or so. Any crunches in the real estate market now (and to be honest, the type of people who would buy into the Chicago Spire aren't exactly going to be the type of people who would buy into the subprime mortgages that's screwing over alot of people right now) will be long gone before the building even hits the 20th floor or so (I was going to say 10th, but I'll be conservative in my estimates for now). And there has yet to be a clear demonstration that Chicago has a bad condo market; a slowing sales rate is not a demonstrated glut, especially when you consider that the Chicago Spire is targetting a demographic that the majority of condos are not. And random people foreclosing on low profile units is not an indication of how banks and constructers work. After all, if the credit crunch is happening in the subprime market, I don't see how that necessarily hurts long-term construction plans, especially since I don't see Kelleher doing a 0-down, high-risk interest rate subprime loan to finance his building, nor any banks giving him that kind of loan.

Granted, I'm no economist or market analyst. But I think people are being overly cautious and negative about this project with very little grounds. Past attempts at new WTB's in Chicago that fizzled were also managed by developers who had bad business timing or were outright crooks (I believe the one behind 5 SD is getting convicted for frauding investors); I think Chicago has been through enough of those kind of misstakes, and I think Carley's departure and the relentless redesigns have rid this project of naive optimism and given it a more stoic, economically feasible foundation. And the housing crunch and credit squeeze is in a specific subset of the finance/real estate market at large and in the economy as a whole. After all, the fed cut rates, not to help the economy, but to make sure this market-specific trouble stays market-specific, because otherwise the economy at large ain't that bad, especially when you consider what geopolitics is like now adays. And, given any downturns in the economy at large... do you know how long on average it takes for the economy to rebound and people to be cheery again? 4 months. Oh, and again, how long is this building expected to be in construction for?
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Old September 24th, 2007, 06:32 AM   #3329
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^ Great argument.

I also would like to comment that the Spire is the only development to my knowledge that will have sales centers in major cities throughout the globe. It will specifically tap an international market, and with news last week of the dollar hitting one of its all time lows, certainly the chips are on the table for foreign buyers. What I can't predict is how they'll react, and how much interest they'll have, since we all know that the rest of the world simply sees New York when they see America (I have yet to see a Bollywood movie with a setting in the US that takes place anywhere but New York)
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Old September 24th, 2007, 07:25 AM   #3330
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I guess I'm not following the argument here. Are you guys saying that they're going to get more than 1,000 millionaire overseas buyers willing to drop upwards of 1 million dollars + to purchase a unit in Chicago solely for the bragging rites of owning a unit in a Calatrava building?

I could see where guys like "Lord" Palumbo would own Farnsworth House by Mies Van der Rohe in Plano, Illinois for awhile, but are you all suggesting that owning a unit in this building will hold that same investor appeal on the basis of Calatrava's name? I personally don't see that happening. As much as I love it, Chicago is not Paris or New York.

At the end of the day, it's kind of a shame that J. Paul Beitler didn't hire Calatrava instead of Pelli to design the telecom tower that he unveiled about 8 months ago. With the mayor's backing, Chicago could have gotten its Calatrava without the huge burden of a developer with no specific answers to financing questions and no actual floor plans needing to move more than 1,000 residential units at over 1,000 dollars per SF and up.
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Old September 24th, 2007, 04:48 PM   #3331
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^ I'm not sure if he really needs to get 1,000 foreign buyers.

I'm guessing that a large chunk of buyers will still be Americans.

However, good exchange rates can only help the Spire get some foreign investment, and many foreigners may be interested in buying units with the eventual plan to sell them for a profit. Lets not forget that there will be a particular allure to this project not only because of the Calatrava design, but because of its height. Where else on the western hemisphere can you live over 1400 feet in the air, right next to an enormous body of water?

Finally, despite the high prices, certainly some people are getting the sense that Chicago is a huge bargain compared to other global cities, and I'm seriously beginning to wonder how much room for price appreciation remains in cities like New York, London, or San Francisco--perhaps some others are coming to similar conclusions? Here's to hoping..
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Old September 24th, 2007, 04:49 PM   #3332
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Sept 24 - AM

View from above
[ full set - zoomable http://picasaweb.google.com/harry.r..../400NLSDCSHeli ]


Outer secant wall, bracing


New inner secant wall, this must be the top cap, and the marshmellows spacers to allow the drilling of the caissons. Note the filler where the cylanders meet to give a place for the inbetween caissons ( will they be smaller ? ).





A sunny morning


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Old September 24th, 2007, 05:03 PM   #3333
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Cant wait to see this one rise!
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Old September 24th, 2007, 05:44 PM   #3334
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The falling dollar cant be emphazised enough when it comes to foreign buyers. The euro just hit an all time high against the dollar. Throw in the fact that per square foot, prices are about half NYC and London, its quite a bargin for international investors. And I think owning a piece of such a unique building will be attractive to those buyers.
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Old September 24th, 2007, 06:15 PM   #3335
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To echo the previous 2 posts, there are also many many Europeans who would love to hide a million or 2 from the taxman and the Spire would be a perfect option for them. Chicago's reputation is skyrocketing around the world, particularly with elites. With the dollar looking like it'll stay down for several years at least (until we can export as much as we import, I'd say at least 6 years), this might be an opportune time for such a building.

The funny thing is, I wouldn't be one bit surprised if many foreigners who might buy a unit as an investment, might fall so in love with Chicago and the Spire that they'll make it their retirement home.
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Old September 24th, 2007, 06:30 PM   #3336
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Quote:
Originally Posted by feworkr View Post
Oops, I just realized the developer will only need to sell 1/2 of them to break even. So the 20 year old sales associate will see the halfway point when she's 90. I mentioned a long time ago: anything is possible with enough time and money - $3 billion and 8 years, is my estimate. The $$$ has already doubled, months ago, from $750 mil. to $1.5 bil. It ain't gonna get cheaper!
New Yorker, are you ?
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Old September 24th, 2007, 08:45 PM   #3337
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Are Case working Saturdays and Sundays on the foundations?
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Old September 24th, 2007, 08:48 PM   #3338
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Originally Posted by Dennis View Post
Cant wait to see this one rise!
I can't wait either (6postsleft)
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Old September 24th, 2007, 10:17 PM   #3339
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but unfortunately we have to wait a long time until this moment
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Old September 24th, 2007, 10:21 PM   #3340
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Quote:
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Are Case working Saturdays and Sundays on the foundations?
They were working on the secant wall this past Saturday. Not sure about Sunday though.
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