One Central Residences Macau

[FourSeasons]

Originally Posted by MacauVillager28

ps always thougt 1CR would be similar to the Sail (which I just missed), which went up almost 4x times. However, Sail was exceptional...

Not fair to compare both projects: Sail was launched at the bottom of the property cycle in Singapore.
But quite frankly, I would not be surprised if 1CR goes up 4x by the time all the projects at Cotai Strip are completed in another 2-3 years. That means from HK$4k per sq ft to HK$16k per sq ft 2009/2010. Do you think it is possible?

[MacauVillager28]

Originally Posted by FourSeasons

Tower 1, Duplex, 3100 sq ft;
Tower 5, Simplex and duplex, more than 4000 sq ft;
Tower 7, Duplex 2301 sq ft.

Looking at floor plan, Twr 1 is largest, Twr 5 smallest. I think there must be more units in both Towers. I think Twr 1 will have different sizes due to shape, while I can imagine Twr 7 can have 8 duplexes.

[MacauVillager28]

Originally Posted by FourSeasons

Not fair to compare both projects: Sail was launched at the bottom of the property cycle in Singapore.
But quite frankly, I would not be surprised if 1CR goes up 4x by the time all the projects at Cotai Strip are completed in another 2-3 years. That means from HK$4k per sq ft to HK$16k per sq ft 2009/2010. Do you think it is possible?

Macau had no luxury market when 1CR was launched, so can't compare it with bottom (unless you can buy land and redevelop yourself !). Interesting in that both launch prices were similar (SGD900 Sail, HKD4.4k psf 1CR). Admittedly, Sail was in prime location next to CBD (banks).. while 1CR is prime location next to Macau's financial center (casinos) !!

Anything is possible.. 4x yes !! Macau has so little land. But I think people will compare with HK (esp mainlanders looking for 1 special home/investment). If HK goes up by 30-50%to approx HKD30-40k psf, Macau luxury at HKD16k is no problem...
I'll probably quit at 3x.. need to leave some gains for buyer . Then re-invest another market for 100% gain elsewhere !!

So you went in at HKD4k ? Great price if so... must've been primary level (didn't think you had chance in SG).

Again, learning from Sail/SG, when prices shoot up, smaller units become more valuable as entry price lower... I think in SG penthouses went up first, then speculators chased the smaller units. Bigger units retain value but become much less liquid, so end result is similar. Mind you, kicking myself for not getting penthouse in SG as psf lower !!! More to do with not knowing it was cheaper.

[FourSeasons]

Originally Posted by MacauVillager28

Interesting in that both launch prices were similar (SGD900 Sail, HKD4.4k psf 1CR). Admittedly, Sail was in prime location next to CBD (banks).. while 1CR is prime location next to Macau's financial center (casinos) !!

Just check the asking price at the Sail now, ranging from 1950 to 2990 per sq ft. But the market is dead for the past 3 months and no way anybody would pay current asking prices. So look more like Sail went up 2.5-3x instead of 4x based on the asking price.

[FourSeasons]

Originally Posted by MacauVillager28

So you went in at HKD4k ? Great price if so... must've been primary level (didn't think you had chance in SG).

Not the price i bought, just the average price when it was first launched, if my recollection is correct.

[HK Bystander]

Originally Posted by FourSeasons

Not the price i bought, just the average price when it was first launched, if my recollection is correct.

Just wanted to compliment on Four Seasons & Macau Villager28 on all your comments & insights on the Macau property market. Have been following this forum for the past months. Was not going to post any replies ( as my name suggests, I'm just a bystander, I don't have much comments to contribute to this forum ).
By now you must have guess, I'm also an investor in 1CR. Will exit & follow right behind you guys, at 2009-2010???

[FourSeasons]

Originally Posted by HK Bystander

By now you must have guess, I'm also an investor in 1CR. Will exit & follow right behind you guys, at 2009-2010???

Hi HK Bystander : Welcome here. It's great to have members participate here and share ideas, even if you disagree and think we are nuts.
I really don't know when is a good time to exit . For all we know, Macau can boom another 10 years. Look at Las Vegas, it never stop reinventing itself for the last 2 decades, and still maintain as the fastest growing city in America. Steve Wynn is already talking about building the "best hotel in the planet of earth" in Macau and we should know the details soon "before Christmas" and I suspect the completion would be 2011/12. Look likely Harrah's expected to do some projects at the golf course in Cotai Strip too that will extend new projects beyond 2010.
I just read The Asian Wall Street Journal yesterday, and there is an article that chronicles the rise of Adelson in Las Vegas, how he transformed the convention business scene there from nothing to present annual 6 million visitors. Just imagine if he can do the same thing for Macau. In 5 years down the road, Macau will need many F&B, entertainers, convention professionals migrating there to service these industries. And don't forget Macau has a low tax base, that with new entertainments coming along, may attract private wealthy crowd too.
On my last visit there, I personally saw a property agency that specialize on Korean buyers. And I just heard from an agent that a Japan fund bought 4 towers of Windsor Arch to market the units in Japan. And this weekend will see the sale of One Grantai in Singapore. We can just see the impact of the opening of Wynn and Venetian that opens Macau to not just Hong Kong and mainland investors but also the wider Asian crowd. And this is just phase 1. We will soon see the opening of MGM Grand, then the completion of Venetian, then the opening of Four Seasons, Shangri La next year, and then Dream of City and Macau Studio City in 2009.
Like what MacaVillager said before, we are also riding on the cycle of the boom created by China's growth. So it also depend on one's view on this issue.
So HK Bystander, let's hope you get more active here and don't be a bystander anymore, let us know what you think and share any gossip (or market intelligence) that you have with us.

[MacauVillager28]

Originally Posted by FourSeasons

Just check the asking price at the Sail now, ranging from 1950 to 2990 per sq ft. But the market is dead for the past 3 months and no way anybody would pay current asking prices. So look more like Sail went up 2.5-3x instead of 4x based on the asking price.

Sail has been very good. Had 14 sub-sales in October. Highest transacted price was SGD3.3k psf for 689sf. Other deals over SGD3k psf (approx HKD16k psf) include $3201 for 883sf, $3001 for 1432 sf (From URA govt database).
The $3.3k psf was originally sold for $1091 psf in 2004, resold 10 mths later at $1333psf. Unit is 52/F. So 3x gain on this unit. Launch was $950psf ave, and not sure if other units more than 3x. But note once project gets completed, there 'normally' is another 20% boost in price as new buyer can get keys and financing.

see
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showth...49757&page=116

This is one of the reasons I used SSC in the first place... to check out views on development (including construction pictures of my purchase !!).
Also note: Highest price units (psf) have often been small units as they're more affordable. This also applied to CityLights development, where gain may be 2.5 times.

[MacauVillager28]

Originally Posted by HK Bystander

Just wanted to compliment on Four Seasons & Macau Villager28 on all your comments & insights on the Macau property market. Have been following this forum for the past months. Was not going to post any replies ( as my name suggests, I'm just a bystander, I don't have much comments to contribute to this forum ).
By now you must have guess, I'm also an investor in 1CR. Will exit & follow right behind you guys, at 2009-2010???

Welcome HK Bystander !! Good to get another 1CR investor !
Its good to know you've been reading our posts !!
Sometimes, it seems like I'm have a conversation with myself, posting things, so it's encouraging to know people do read it !!

As mentioned, when I first looked at SSC, I wanted more info on what was happening in Singapore (since I'm in HK). It was great to have others opinion on projects, and to see the occasional construction progress pics/reports (alas- SG forum eventually become very crowded as others jumped in the forum when prices shot up, so you ended getting less info!!)

The more people we have, the more flow of info !!
I remember in SSC Singapore forum, when people (mostly very happy since they made $$$) got their keys, they would have a party with other forummers !! After all we all have a common interest (eventually how much to sell !! or how much rent !!)
Hopefully, once we have enough people, we could do this one day !

[FourSeasons]

Originally Posted by MacauVillager28

Sail has been very good. Had 14 sub-sales in October. Highest transacted price was SGD3.3k psf for 689sf. Other deals over SGD3k psf (approx HKD16k psf) include $3201 for 883sf, $3001 for 1432 sf (From URA govt database).

I think the URA database on Oct reflects the transaction done in August, as the option agreements allows the transactions to be completed in 60days. From my source, the property market here (SG, not Macau, just to clarify) is dead since August after the heavy correction in equity,the related bad news on subprime, and the govt freeze on deferred payments scheme. Maybe I am wrong, but I personally think that SG market is going thru like what HKG market did 2 years ago, a consolidation with very few transactions and perhaps correction of 5-10% for the next 2-3 years.

[HK Bystander]

[QUOTE=FourSeasons;16932925]Hi HK Bystander : Welcome here. It's great to have members participate here and share ideas, even if you disagree and think we are nuts.
I certainly don't think you guys are nuts. Thank you for sharing your views & market intelligence with us. Have gained so much insight on the Macau investment scene by reading all your posts. I agree with what you said before, using timeframe instead of return as the benchmark to exit for Macau.
Yes, Macau is looking more & more like Vegas. Love to visit Vegas every couple of years, have always been amazed with each newer, grander, bigger casinos there popping up in the last two decades. Now with all these mega casinos & all the brand name hotel chains that you can imagined planting their sites in Macau, it's amazing & exciting to see this transformation, somewhere so close to home.
And the "best hotel in the planet of earth" - I wonder what that's going to be like. I'm so eager & so looking forward to seeing what Macau will look like 3-5 yrs down the road. As a very small investor there, I'm thrilled to be a part of the action.

[HK Bystander]

[QUOTE]

Originally Posted by MacauVillager28

Welcome HK Bystander !! Good to get another 1CR investor !
Its good to know you've been reading our posts !!
Sometimes, it seems like I'm have a conversation with myself, posting things, so it's encouraging to know people do read it !!

I'm sure there are many "readers" out there who enjoyed as much as I do, reading all your posts on the latest news & figures on Macau investment. Thank you for sharing these. Good job.
Congrats on your Singapore investment, miss the boat there myself, but invest in China instead.
Went into 1CR at first launch, hoping to make 50% profit when project completes end-2009. Looks like may be we can "Aim for the moon"

[MacauVillager28]

Originally Posted by FourSeasons

I think the URA database on Oct reflects the transaction done in August, as the option agreements allows the transactions to be completed in 60days. From my source, the property market here (SG, not Macau, just to clarify) is dead since August after the heavy correction in equity,the related bad news on subprime, and the govt freeze on deferred payments scheme. Maybe I am wrong, but I personally think that SG market is going thru like what HKG market did 2 years ago, a consolidation with very few transactions and perhaps correction of 5-10% for the next 2-3 years.

Agree to some degree... but I think things aren't as bad.. I'm sure F1 will make a great impact, it will blow people's mind, so a pause of 1 year, not 2 in HK. Economy/Pay/Enblocs are still exceptionally positive. In particular, if HK rises, SG will follow, so if HK goes up say 30%, SG will play catch up.
Yes, URA is delayed, sometimes by a large margin. But there have been new records set in new developments.. and some projects have sold well (ironically to HK and Indonesian investors.. again - think same agent I used in SG in 05/06).
I'm also staying in as prices rise after occupation - so need another loan !! As mentioned, this can be 20%, and will be right when F1 is there !

[MacauVillager28]

[QUOTE=HK Bystander;16953112]

I'm sure there are many "readers" out there who enjoyed as much as I do, reading all your posts on the latest news & figures on Macau investment. Thank you for sharing these. Good job.
Congrats on your Singapore investment, miss the boat there myself, but invest in China instead.
Went into 1CR at first launch, hoping to make 50% profit when project completes end-2009. Looks like may be we can "Aim for the moon"

"...And if you miss, you'll land among the Stars ?" An investor I know in SG uses this phase..
Anyway, agree on 50% on completion. This is my internal target on my investments. I must be able to 'see' this before I invest (ie fundamentals etc). So far, when I do this, this target is actually hit in just over a year, so in fact it seems that it is often 100% (or more) on completion. I remember telling my sister to buy in SG before the rise - she asked me if I could see 100% (she's from the UK, in 1999-2002 rise was 100%) - I said no, just 50%. I was wrong, SG is now up approx 70% after 1.5 years.

I looked in China (Shenzhen esp) around the same time as Macau..and was tempted to buy last year before deciding on Macau.. Looks like you made a very good investment there also..
One thing that stopped me was I was afraid of the rules in China (you hear the odd horror stories, eg highways built in front of your house) and secondary market not too developed (this seems to have improved). But I really like the RMB appreciation and cheap prices then.. but now its up 50% (or is it more ?).

[FourSeasons]

[QUOTE=MacauVillager28;16953903]

Originally Posted by HK Bystander

I looked in China (Shenzhen esp) around the same time as Macau..and was tempted to buy last year before deciding on Macau.. Looks like you made a very good investment there also..
One thing that stopped me was I was afraid of the rules in China (you hear the odd horror stories, eg highways built in front of your house) and secondary market not too developed (this seems to have improved). But I really like the RMB appreciation and cheap prices then.. but now its up 50% (or is it more ?).

I bought & sold one in Shanghai. The secondary market is quite developed. There are just many procedures that I have to go thru when I sold it. But with China property markets, we can get exposure with the property H shares that are listed in Hong Kong as an alternative way of investing directly with the physical assets.

[MacauVillager28]

[QUOTE=FourSeasons;16954386]

Originally Posted by MacauVillager28

I bought & sold one in Shanghai. The secondary market is quite developed. There are just many procedures that I have to go thru when I sold it. But with China property markets, we can get exposure with the property H shares that are listed in Hong Kong as an alternative way of investing directly with the physical assets.

Yes, but you can't the the leverage effect... On 20% downpayment (in SG) you get 5x return on equity if it rises 100% !!. Admittedly, H Shares don't need to have this boost !!

Anyway, now China doesn't seem to be too 'investor friendly' anymore... so many restrictions (one property/resident/loans etc...), plus rising rates, and it's not cheap anymore..
I'll wait for a fall (maybe 1 year after Olympics ??) and maybe then China open its arms to investors.. There's always something to invest in, somewhere...

[HK Bystander]

Originally Posted by FourSeasons

I bought & sold one in Shanghai. The secondary market is quite developed. There are just many procedures that I have to go thru when I sold it. But with China property markets, we can get exposure with the property H shares that are listed in Hong Kong as an alternative way of investing directly with the physical assets.

Same with me, I also bought & sold one in Shanghai couple of years back. I agree there are too much work & many procedures exp. with rental properties. Went back in & bought another brand name hotel-managed serviced apt. in Beijing CBD last year ( ride on the Olympic effects, & hopefully less hazzle on handling the rentals ). Project just completed, will get my keys next month.
Just wondering if any of you have any interest in the Vietnam property market. Thought might have some potential, but financing is not readily available there, so lose out on the leverage effect.

[FourSeasons]

Originally Posted by HK Bystander

Same with me, I also bought & sold one in Shanghai couple of years back. I agree there are too much work & many procedures exp. with rental properties. Went back in & bought another brand name hotel-managed serviced apt. in Beijing CBD last year ( ride on the Olympic effects, & hopefully less hazzle on handling the rentals ). Project just completed, will get my keys next month.

Congratulation, you have done very well, just like Macauvillager28. I read that Beijing market has been very hot in last 3 years.

Originally Posted by HK Bystander

Just wondering if any of you have any interest in the Vietnam property market. Thought might have some potential, but financing is not readily available there, so lose out on the leverage effect.

Afraid I have not much info on Vietnam at all. Maybe you should a new forumn to get those with interest to share info and experience.

[MacauVillager28]

Don't know much about Vietnam either... but I hear it's not dirt cheap.
I tend to play safe !! Never sure if there are govt changes rules suddenly(China has a few now) which can affect market - including things like capital controls, taxes, financing... hence I've stuck with SG, UK, HK (and Macau - least it's not too exotic and can collect rent !!).
Thailand could be interesting - still cheap (esp since coup) - I've always wanted to get a beach property there, but sounds not too cheap in Phuket.
I'm at my max anyway - I want to be sure I can service all these mortgages.

Since your in HK, why not HK ? I just bought recently (before rate drop), tho admitted new launches now expensive, and developers here have a tendency to price new launches VERY HIGH (so secondary is better bet). Given more rate drops, incredibly high growth forecast (50% in 2 years, 45% maybe in 1 year !!).
As mentioned, did wonder if this rosy sceanario for HK would be negative in that HK'ers would buy less in Macau - but I don't think there is any affect as HK prices will pull Macau higher anyway - and I think HK'ers will be replaced by more mainlanders as Macau remains much, much cheaper and I think, suits them more (HK is just another Chinese city).

[MacauVillager28]

Have just got floorplan of the units release. I think this phase only 4 units.
They are:
1. Twr 1, Duplex C, 3100 sf, 45-46/F, no balcony (same position as unit C (1 bed) & D (studio) on normal floors combined)
2. Twr 5 Simplex A, 39/F, 4637 sf, w/balcony
3. Twr 5 Duplex B, 41-42/F, 4371 sf, w/balcony
4. Twr 7, Duplex D, 49-40/F, 2301 sf, no balcony

My guess (fm different agents) is:
1. HKD11k psf = HKD34m (Wynn/Lake View)
3. HKD14k psf = HKD61m (Sea veiw)
4. HKD 12.5k psf = HKD28.8m (MGM/Sea View)
If pricing is correct, prices can go higher as 'better' units with more balcony/even better view not released with prices.

Looking at floor plans
Twr 1: 4 more duplex = 5 Duplex (2 w/balcony & Lakeview)
Twr 5: 1 more duplex, 38,40/F Simplex =5 units (probable)
Twr 7: 7 more duplexes = 8 Duplexes with units ABC H having balcony
Also guess
Twr 2: 5 more floors: Likely 10 more simplex/duplex (less if bigger units)
Twr 3: 3 more floors: Likely 1x8000sf Triplex (with pool, roof).
So total likely to be 29 units (unless some held by Ho family!)

Hard to describe, so anyone want email of floor plan, drop me a message.

Originally Posted by MacauVillager28

Agent said new launch units at HKD11k psf for Twr 1, HKD12.5k for Twr 7 units, and HKD14k for Twr 5. Not sure which are combined or penthouse units (looks like Twr 5 ?). Looking at floor plan, developer didn't release top 2 floor of Twr 1 & 7, but kept something like top 5 floors for Twr 5 (guess this also has combined units also).