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Old January 18th, 2014, 04:52 PM   #5201
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Originally Posted by darko06 View Post
Finally, EU consultants made a study about connecting the Dubrovnik exclave with the rest of EU a few months ago where they stated that a fully fenced and surveillance-made corridor will cost about two thirds of the price of Pelješac bridge.

Sapienti sat.
If the EU insisted on (someone ...was it the Croatian transport ministry??) hiring consultants to examine the relative cost of the bridge over a fenced corridor it is because that is precisely what the EU is minded to fund.

Your points on accession processes are noted but you left out Montenegro which is likely to enter the EU sooner than B&H and Albania which will also follow at some stage, probably at the same time as Bosnia and Macedonia. I cannot see any new country making it into the EU before 2020 and it is possible that Montenegro could get in ahead of Serbia by a few years as there are no territorial disputes between Montenegro and its neighbours that could complicate matters, as was the case between Slovenia and Croatia for example.
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Old January 19th, 2014, 02:31 PM   #5202
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Montenegro will surely enter before Serbia. The accession process of Montenegro is already in an advanced state, screening of all chapters are completed. Montenegro has to make many changes to it's law to be compatible to EU laws, but since all parties in Montegro are pro-EU (at least as far as I know), there should be no real problem to fullfill that. I expect Montenegro to join in 2018 if nothing serious happens.
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Old January 19th, 2014, 02:33 PM   #5203
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It will be a TOTSO interchange (turn off to stay on). You'll have to turn right to stay on A1 instead of continuing straight forward.
That's a rather technical question. In fact the future interchange will be built in a curvy part of the motorway. So you will have to turn right to go on A1 and turn left to go to A10...
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Old January 21st, 2014, 11:45 PM   #5204
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Montenegro will surely enter before Serbia. The accession process of Montenegro is already in an advanced state, screening of all chapters are completed. Montenegro has to make many changes to it's law to be compatible to EU laws, but since all parties in Montegro are pro-EU (at least as far as I know), there should be no real problem to fullfill that. I expect Montenegro to join in 2018 if nothing serious happens.
Two big problems in the way :

1) Russians have a lot of influence in Montenegro, and they own a considerable amount of things there. They won't want to give up or lose that influence, particularly as it's one of the few 'nice' places in Europe that they can access easily.

2) Their Prime Minister (or has he resigned again? I never keep track of what he's doing...) has a considerable amount to lose by Montenegro becoming a modern EU state. Montenegro isn't a mafia state, but still, I don't see them joining the EU anytime soon for that reason.

I can't see Montenegro joining this decade - not unless Croatia convinces Germany that they absolutely need Montenegro in. Of course, if the opposition in Montenegro actually wins an election (highly unlikely...) - then things might change.

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Another question, will this happen before or after BiH joining the EU (and further on the Schengen agreement)? Or could the transit road be fenced, with no bureaucracy for inter-Croatian traffic but no access to BiH? Wouldn't that be a pity...
No-one really knows. Croatia needs a transit route sooner rather than later, but with the road on Pelješac being absolutely unsuitable for trucks and no money to spend on upgrading it, combined with the very unclear legality of building the bridge to Pelješac in the first place - then it seems that a corridor route is the only option.

For me, the most sane approach would be to build a border crossing either side of the entrance to Neum on the A1 corridor. Traffic could enter Neum at that point - or they could enter the transit road without border formalities. The road would be sealed with fences/etc, but BiH would have the right to police it as appropriate. The road would also be tolled, with the tolls going to BiH as payment for the corridor.

Croatia would monitor the border electronically, using things such as numberplate recognition and technology to automatically detect stopped cars. It's pretty simple to imagine - the system would be automatically designed so that anyone suspicious would be directed to the border crossing.

Simple, cost effective and keeps everyone happy. As I understand it, the High Commissioner would be able to put such a system in place if they can't agree among themselves?

Having said this, I wish someone could explain why Klek/Zaton Doli isn't a border crossing for commercial goods.
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Old January 21st, 2014, 11:57 PM   #5205
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Yeah, the High Commissioner could make something like that happen, but I would be very surprised if he would do something like this. The position of the High Commissioner was created to make sure that the people in BiH live together in peace and that no entity or the central state make laws that would make that peace disapperar. It's not his duty to bother with something like a transit corridor.

Anyway, the situation is pretty simple: Croatia needs a connection to Dubrovnik and BiH doesn't need a transit corridor through its territory. So, you can easily guess that the demands of BiH are pretty high to allow such a project. Since BiH hasn't any, it's most likely about money... And Croatia hasn't any either.

However, no country in this world would rely on a transit corridor if the connection could also be realised on its own territory. So that bridge will be the solution to be made.
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Old January 22nd, 2014, 12:11 AM   #5206
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The problem is that I'm not convinced that Croatia really wants this bridge too. It will involve a fight with BiH at the international level, and if the result is that Croatia has to build the bridge even higher / build an expensive tunnel instead, then it simply won't happen.

I'm absolutely convinced that Croatia has been insisting on the bridge simply because they know that BiH will block it at all costs - so they can avoid the issue of what to do with the road further south as a result. They could surely come to some agreement over the transit road without much fuss - but that would mean Croatia coming under intense pressure to finish the road to Dubrovnik.

I know a lot of fuss is made about tourist traffic, but having visited Dalmatia in May and seeing the place quite empty - is there much point in spending a huge amount of money for what is 3 months of the year?
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Old January 22nd, 2014, 02:05 AM   #5207
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The roads on the far side of the bridge on the peninsula are dreadful in summer and building a motorway from the south side of the bridge to Dubrovnik would be extremely expensive if one did build that bridge. Certainly more than the bridge would cost.

But the good news is that Croatia, relative to its population, has an excellent motorway network overall. On a per capita basis for a country of 4m people probably the best network in South Eastern and indeed Eastern Europe despite the problems in high summer.

Portugal has motorways that only carry Motorway volumes of traffic in July and August ( north of 10-12k AADT) and drop below 5000 AADT for most of the other 10 months of the year. This is a rather sub optimal allocation of scarce funds.

Croatia was also rather clever with Half profile long tunnels, I concede they are a nuisance in July/August but they are fine for 10 months of the year and save a fortune that can be spent on flatter sections to the far end of the Slavonian plain from Zagreb.

Best fly the potential 'traffic' right in and maybe that is why substantially upgrading Dubrovnik Airport has been a greater priority in recent years.

Overall Croatia has not done much wrong given its population and resources, apart from the squabble over access to Neum.

But do remember Denmark effectively threatened to block the entire Baltic Sea when they built the Oresund Bridge so it ain't just Croatia starts these squabbles.

I also feel that Eulanthe has carefully described what will happen in the end.
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Old January 22nd, 2014, 02:36 AM   #5208
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For me, Neum is all about being pragmatic. Yes, the bridge/expressway solution to the D8 at Zaton Doli will be much faster in summer. But if we look at it logically, it's going to cost a minimum of 50 Kuna for the bridge/expressway combination, and perhaps even more. The Krk bridge costs 17.50kn each way for a bridge that has obviously repaid construction costs - so assuming 30kn for the bridge to Pelješac is on the very low side.

But let's assume 50kn for the bridge and the expressway to Zaton Doli. For 10 months of the year, it will be mostly Croatians using that route - are they really going to pay 50kn when the alternative route is just as easy? Of course not - they will just go through Neum. With Croatia joining the EU, there will even be the motivation to go through Neum to buy certain goods cheaper, too.

All in all, I don't see the economics adding up at all for the construction of the Pelješac bridge. If the EU comes up with the money, then perhaps - but it will be a bridge to nowhere. For now, it's best just to leave the A1 ending at the A10 and do nothing for the next decade. Croatia doesn't really need the bridge - and the EU doesn't appear to be that bothered about it.
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Old January 22nd, 2014, 11:02 AM   #5209
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What about the option to create a tunnel under Neum, just under the surface of the current road?
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Old January 22nd, 2014, 11:04 AM   #5210
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...once, someone said something about the Balkans... area code for BIH is +387, there is second area code +388 which is used by Europe Wide Service - European Telephony Numbering Space...also area codes +383 and +384 are unallocated officialy...BIH can not survive as one country, and will be divided into two parts...southern part of BIH, through which will pass the A1 highway, is mostly populated by Croats...nothing is accidental... when the area codes at Balkans will have their rightful owners, then will be proceed construction of the A1 highway, but until then this is empty talk...

...from 01.01.2015. Kosovo will use the +383 area code...( next is ? )...
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Old January 22nd, 2014, 07:23 PM   #5211
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Why do you expect e free ride through Bosnia?
In a future within 20-3 years all of balkan will be integrated in EU if we dont have a new war by then or something else ruining it.

Is it not just easier to build a motorway to the border at Neum, let bosnia build their short motorway and then finish the last one to border with Montenegro.

At the border with Neum you can build 10-20 pass controlls to make the traffic go faster. Would probably be a lot cheaper and easier.

Of course I dont know the politic situation down there but this was just my own opinion...
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Old January 22nd, 2014, 07:46 PM   #5212
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The problem is with commercial goods - unless BiH and the EU can come to an agreement on transit, the goods would have to be cleared out of the EU and cleared back into the EU. The EU seems remarkably unwilling to negotiate on this - but they don't have any better ideas.

For me, the most sensible approach is to come up with a solution that allows goods to stay within the EU for customs purposes provided the trucks are adequately sealed and the transit time is within reason.
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Old January 22nd, 2014, 07:52 PM   #5213
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Originally Posted by Eulanthe View Post
The problem is with commercial goods - unless BiH and the EU can come to an agreement on transit, the goods would have to be cleared out of the EU and cleared back into the EU. The EU seems remarkably unwilling to negotiate on this - but they don't have any better ideas.

For me, the most sensible approach is to come up with a solution that allows goods to stay within the EU for customs purposes provided the trucks are adequately sealed and the transit time is within reason.
well, i dont know about trucks, but this is certainly no problem for railway shipments, and should be therefore -i guess- neither a problem for trucks. for example, an austria-greece shipment through serbia/macedonia is a normal EU-EU shipment without any complication.
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Old January 22nd, 2014, 08:16 PM   #5214
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I have just one thing to say about this Neum problem: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zx1_6F-nCaw
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Old January 22nd, 2014, 08:24 PM   #5215
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Originally Posted by Eulanthe View Post
The problem is that I'm not convinced that Croatia really wants this bridge too. It will involve a fight with BiH at the international level, and if the result is that Croatia has to build the bridge even higher / build an expensive tunnel instead, then it simply won't happen.
How do you come to the conclusion that Croatia violates any right if it builds that bridge? That's only something BiH argued. The situation is pretty clear, the bridge is built on national Croatian territory. If Croatia wants, the could forbit travelling to Neum by sea without problem since it's no international waters. And the planned bridge is high enough anyway.
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Old January 22nd, 2014, 08:34 PM   #5216
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If Croatia wants, the could forbit travelling to Neum by sea
You're wrong, they must allow free passage regardless of whether the waters are international or not.
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Old January 22nd, 2014, 08:47 PM   #5217
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You're wrong, they must allow free passage regardless of whether the waters are international or not.
Not in internal waters (landwards of baseline). The state has full sovereignity there and there is no right for innocent passage there. If Croatia decides to fill the sea before Neum with stones, then BiH has no legal actions against it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_waters
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Old January 22nd, 2014, 09:31 PM   #5218
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Yeah, the High Commissioner could make something like that happen, but I would be very surprised if he would do something like this. The position of the High Commissioner was created to make sure that the people in BiH live together in peace and that no entity or the central state make laws that would make that peace disapperar.
For peace, read "one state" - even a peaceful democratic split would be opposed by the High Representative as the aim is to stop war by continuing the main cause of the wars in the 90s (a lack of a right to self-determination), and to promote democracy by not allowing it to truly exist.
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Old January 22nd, 2014, 11:48 PM   #5219
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It is an international strait, that is all. The Bosporus Strait is inside Turkey but Russian or Romanian ships may transit it. It had 2 bridges crossing it with a third under construction. The only issue is the height of the bridge above the water.

The Messina strait is inside Italy and is also an International Strait. Ships can transit international straits inside other countries, way it has been for a long time.

If Croatia build a bridge as high above the sea as the First Bosphoros bridge or of the proposed Messina bridge then there will be no problem at all. The first Bosphoros bridge is 64m above sea level and is the benchmark height for such structures. The Oresund bridge is 57m up on the main spans but there is a tunnel section under a bit of it and most ships into the Baltic pass over the tunnel.

Has anyone proposed a tunnel instead of a bridge?????
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Old January 22nd, 2014, 11:54 PM   #5220
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It is an international strait, that is all. The Bosporus Strait is inside Turkey but Russian or Romanian ships may transit it. It had 2 bridges crossing it with a third under construction. The only issue is the height of the bridge above the water.

The Messina strait is inside Italy and is also an International Strait. Ships can transit international straits inside other countries, way it has been for a long time.

If Croatia build a bridge as high above the sea as the First Bosphoros bridge or of the proposed Messina bridge then there will be no problem at all. The first Bosphoros bridge is 64m above sea level and is the benchmark height for such structures. The Oresund bridge is 57m up on the main spans but there is a tunnel section under a bit of it and most ships into the Baltic pass over the tunnel.

Has anyone proposed a tunnel instead of a bridge?????
projected bridge has clearance of 60 metres. first solution had 50 metres, but BIH put an objection that transatlantic cruisers will not be able to sail in Neum. they obviously didn't pay attention that shallow sea could be obstacle, too.
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