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Old October 27th, 2010, 11:35 AM   #5221
TommyLopez
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Any economic grounds for such a motorway? Is Warsaw a production hub in a quick need of a direct connection to Germany?
Well I suppose that direction from Warsaw to Germany (towards western Europe) is the most important in Poland. Where would you like to have a motorway? Warsaw - Brest for example?? The missing highway from german border to Warsaw really isn't a good thing to welcome motorist...
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Old October 27th, 2010, 12:01 PM   #5222
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I believe the highest intercity traffic in Poland is on the Warszawa - Katowice connection.
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Old October 27th, 2010, 12:13 PM   #5223
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Well I suppose that direction from Warsaw to Germany (towards western Europe) is the most important in Poland. Where would you like to have a motorway? Warsaw - Brest for example?? The missing highway from German border to Warsaw really isn't a good thing to welcome motorist...
Surely it is the most important in Poland, and it already exists. Bridging the gap is more in the interest of producers in Western Poland, then bankers in Warsaw, though. Warsaw needs a real airport.
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Old October 27th, 2010, 12:45 PM   #5224
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There is no such thing as profitable rail transport (farebox recovery ratio is generally between 30 and 50%).
Poland is not the Netherlands. In NL it really doesnt make much sense to use the rail for freight transport. Besides there are the channels and rivers. In bigger countries and with heavy industry it makes much more sense.

Does the cost benefit analysis also includes the externalities and indirect streams? Imagine how would a motorway look if you let the rail dissapear over night... All that coal, iron ore, cement, steel, etc etc transported only over motorways and local highways. There would be constant traffic jams, and constant repairs. The use for personal transport would be mittigated and dangerous.

Look at this figure representing 2007 USA and 2006 EU





When taking the "Sea" away from the EU picture we get the railway share around 17 % tkm.

Taking only the transportation done by these two and compare it we have in
US:
roads: 49 %, rlw 51

EU:
roads: 82 % rlw 18

In polland however the slice looks bit different. According to http://books.google.com/books?id=lbh...page&q&f=false It is around

road: 62 % rlw 38 % tkm.

In general, the bigger the country and the longer distance is the transport, the more railway gets. Europe also suffers from fragmetisation of the railway market, whereas the road market is rather freely accesible.

It is no wonder that the value shares are in favour of the road transport as they make most of the time the last mile and bring the finished product which of course has the most value added - including the value of previous transports of its parts.

The main improvements that freight on rail would benefit from would be lowering the costs of the modal change of transport. Free accesibility and interoperability of the EU rail market.

Trucks will allways have advantages that are not to be mittigated by any rail advancements. Rising fossil fues price will neverthless have an effect, and as I already proposed elswhere. In modest futer timeframe we are going to see merging of the rail and road trasport system resulting in some sort rail road hybrid with last miles delivered in road style and longer distances in high speed rail style, both personal and freight transport.
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Old October 27th, 2010, 01:31 PM   #5225
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And the mean salary has to be normalized to prices ("Purchasing power parity"), which you failed to do. That way the salaries are 60% higher, because of lower prices in Eastern Europe.
But we are comparing relative prices of motorway tolls, not wealth of the nation... THIS may be an informal way of measuring PPP, sort of a Big Mac Index if you will, but with motorways instead of hamburgers
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Old October 27th, 2010, 01:59 PM   #5226
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But we are comparing relative prices of motorway tolls, not wealth of the nation...
And that's what you're missing. Your comparison was generally OK, except for the fact that when doing PLN-to-EUR conversion, you should be using the factor of 2,50, not 4 PLN to EUR.

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THIS may be an informal way of measuring PPP, sort of a Big Mac Index if you will, but with motorways instead of hamburgers
The fact that you know about it shows that you understand your manipulation. Let me be clear: you are generally right abotu the prices, what I protest about is the manipulation.

Besides, when you compared with France, did you take into consideration the quality? Or are you unaware of the patchwork called "pavement" over there?
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Old October 27th, 2010, 02:34 PM   #5227
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And that's what you're missing. Your comparison was generally OK, except for the fact that when doing PLN-to-EUR conversion, you should be using the factor of 2,50, not 4 PLN to EUR.
There were no currency conversions in my calculations, all in local currencies. I'm not comparing absolute prices, but absolute distance covered by mean salary (in local currency), on local tolled motorways (in local currency).

As for road quality... Well, you could take Italy as an example then. A4 (new stretches) for example is easily the best motorway I ever drove on.
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Old October 27th, 2010, 03:09 PM   #5228
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The problem with motorway toll concessions is that the government does not have much influence over the toll prices. For example, in France and Japan, the toll prices went a little overboard. I paid € 48,- (190 PLN) 2 months ago for 4.5 hours of driving between Genève and Reims (500 km).
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Old October 28th, 2010, 12:32 AM   #5229
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Via Carpatia - new European route

Representatives of transport ministries from seven European countries on Friday in Poland signed a declaration by which a new European route will be extended to Romania, Bulgaria and Greece, thus connecting the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. The route will begin in Lithuania, at Kaunas, and then continue in Poland between Bialystok - Lublin - Rzeszow, in Slovakia at Presov - Koszice and in Hungary through Miskolc - Debrecen, according to Mediafax.

On Romanian territory, the route will have two directions, one to Constanta sea harbor, through Oradea - Arad - Timisoara - Lugoj - Deva - Sibiu - Pitesti - Bucharest - Constanta, and one to the Romanian-Bulgarian border, to the future Calafat-Vidin bridge over the Danube, through Oradea - Arad - Timisoara - Lugoj - Drobeta Turnu Severin - Vinju Mare - Calafat, which offers the possibility of extending the Via Carpatia project to the European Union's southern border.

Via Carpatia project was approved in 2006, when transport ministers from Poland, Lithuania, Slovakia and Hungary signed a joint declaration to extend the trans-European transit network by creating a shorter route between the north and south, connecting all four states.

Thus, the Via Carpatia route will connect Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece.

Source

*not sure if you guys are aware about this decision. If yes, sorry for posting double. Thanks
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Old October 28th, 2010, 12:55 AM   #5230
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Any economic grounds for such a motorway? Is Warsaw a production hub in a quick need of a direct connection to Germany?
Theoretically, the point of the EU funds is to promote integration among the EU member states, in order to facilitate the free movement of goods and persons among the member states, not to subsidize development within individual EU member states. Of course, the political realities are often more complicated.
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Old October 28th, 2010, 10:46 AM   #5231
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You have to translate it but text concerns speed limits on motorways and expresways in Poland which will be probably higher (140 and 120km/h respectively):

http://moto.wp.pl/kat,23681,title,Po...wiadomosc.html
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Old October 28th, 2010, 11:08 AM   #5232
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Quote:
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Any economic grounds for such a motorway? Is Warsaw a production hub in a quick need of a direct connection to Germany?
I always enjoy such a comments, and I am always surprised to hear them from people who claim have links to Poland, as you do, mr LMB. Or maybe you are joking and I did not understand your joke...



But to answer your question: yes, there are strong economic grounds for such a highway. Please take a look on the following page:
http://www.siskom.waw.pl/nauka-gpr.htm

The first map from the top shows the result of a traffic survey on major Polish roads, conducted back in 2005. A2 is not the most congested road in Poland but it is in the top 5.

You don't need a production hub - 1,8 million city, plus the metro area - in total 3 mio residents, over 100,000 companies of different sizes, government and legislation center... Germany as the largest, or one of the largest economic partners. Isn't it enough ?
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Old October 28th, 2010, 11:52 AM   #5233
LMB
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Originally Posted by toonczyk View Post
There were no currency conversions in my calculations, all in local currencies. I'm not comparing absolute prices, but absolute distance covered by mean salary (in local currency), on local tolled motorways (in local currency).
OK, I wasn't right, you were, because it was PPP in a sense. But you may have missed something anyway: there is no separate road tax in Poland. I'm quite sure there is one in France.

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Originally Posted by toonczyk View Post
As for road quality... Well, you could take Italy as an example then. A4 (new stretches) for example is easily the best motorway I ever drove on.
We were talking about France, and the quality of the motorways as I know them is "grade C-". Lots of patches on the pavement, rusted barriers etc.

Last edited by LMB; October 28th, 2010 at 12:22 PM.
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Old October 28th, 2010, 11:59 AM   #5234
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Theoretically, the point of the EU funds is to promote integration among the EU member states, in order to facilitate the free movement of goods and persons among the member states, not to subsidize development within individual EU member states. Of course, the political realities are often more complicated.
EU funds wasn't exactly what was on my mind, but rather the kind of "principal thinking", which makes people write "It's a scandal that Warsaw doesn't have a connection with other capital cities". So I ask: what does a "capital city" have to do with economy? Most people don't even know what the capital cities of most important coutries are (think Switzerland, Netherlands). What does a second class city like Berlin have to offer to Warsaw, a no-doubt first class city on the local scale?

And secondly, is there a direct proof that a city like Warsaw would profit from the motorway in a major way, and more than if they built e.g. a proper airport, well connected to the railway system, with a big car park etc?
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Old October 28th, 2010, 12:11 PM   #5235
LMB
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I always enjoy such a comments, and I am always surprised to hear them from people who claim have links to Poland, as you do, mr LMB. Or maybe you are joking and I did not understand your joke...
You provided a link to a page titled "Zasady prognozowania ruchu". Do you understand at all what I wrote in the original post? The question was where is the link between these two claims: "Warsaw needs a motorway", and "the construction of the motorway is profitable to the overall economy". A mere proof that the road is congested is no proof at all, because the congestion could have been caused by people going on holiday, and that is NOT a direct connection (don't miss the word "direct").

Secondly, you don't get to patronize me and go down to a personal level. You can do it on onet.pl, but not here. Nie pozwalaj sobie na personalne zagrywki, bo nie jesteś "kimś".

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The first map from the top shows the result of a traffic survey on major Polish roads, conducted back in 2005. A2 is not the most congested road in Poland but it is in the top 5.
And the link to economy, and exact savings created by building the road? Still missing.

Sure I do believe that they exist, but I wasn't attacking the motorway itself, but as I said, I was ridiculing the kind of reasoning behind it. You know well that inhabitants of Warsaw have a tendency for strange reasoning. Let me bring the main argument for the construction of the underground: "Warsaw is the only capital without underground". Not only a missed argument, but untrue (think Brussels). A real argument would be "Warsaw is a very congested city".

If similar "reasoning" is applied to roads, which after all are sponsored from the central budget, then it does raise my eyebrows.

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Originally Posted by macieii View Post
You don't need a production hub - 1,8 million city, plus the metro area - in total 3 mio residents, over 100,000 companies of different sizes, government and legislation center... Germany as the largest, or one of the largest economic partners. Isn't it enough ?
Sure that's not enough. You need a proof that what the companies produce need the motorway. What if all those 100.000 companies were in the IT business, what do they need the motorway for? That is exatly the point, Warsaw's economy is much more service-based than that of other well-developed parts of Poland. It needs the frigging airport more than it needs the motorway!

And Germany is the largest partner of which part of Poland? Surely not Mazowsze or Łódzkie. There is already a highway to Silesia and Wrocław, and a one in construction to Poznań.

Last edited by LMB; October 28th, 2010 at 12:19 PM. Reason: missed the first part
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Old October 28th, 2010, 02:35 PM   #5236
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EU funds wasn't exactly what was on my mind, but rather the kind of "principal thinking", which makes people write "It's a scandal that Warsaw doesn't have a connection with other capital cities". So I ask: what does a "capital city" have to do with economy? Most people don't even know what the capital cities of most important coutries are (think Switzerland, Netherlands). What does a second class city like Berlin have to offer to Warsaw, a no-doubt first class city on the local scale?
To go from Warsaw (and much of the rest of Poland, plus the Baltic States) to most of Germany (just about everywhere except Bavaria) plus much of the rest of western Europe, the road goes through Berlin.

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Originally Posted by LMB View Post
And secondly, is there a direct proof that a city like Warsaw would profit from the motorway in a major way, and more than if they built e.g. a proper airport, well connected to the railway system, with a big car park etc?
Again, the point of the EU funds is not to benefit Warsaw. The point of the EU funds is to benefit the EU via increased integration.
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Old October 28th, 2010, 06:09 PM   #5237
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Again, the point of the EU funds is not to benefit Warsaw. The point of the EU funds is to benefit the EU via increased integration.
THere are many EU funds with different goals. Some of the funds promote integration and synergy effects, others promote cohesion and uplifting of the not so well developed regions. It so happens that main portion of the TEN-T financig comes in form of cohesion funds albeit the definition of these funds. On the other side there is the EIB and European Regional Developement Fund.
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Old October 29th, 2010, 12:16 AM   #5238
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Warsaw needs a real airport.
I flew into Chopin airport in the summer of 2009, and it looked fine to me. Seemed big and modern. What do you think is wrong with it, exactly?
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Old October 29th, 2010, 05:45 AM   #5239
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I flew into Chopin airport in the summer of 2009, and it looked fine to me. Seemed big and modern. What do you think is wrong with it, exactly?
Since the opening of the new terminal a few years ago, Chopin Airport is fine. It was a real problem before that, but now it's fine. It's not the best airport in the world, but it's more than adequate.
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Old October 29th, 2010, 11:39 AM   #5240
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I flew into Chopin airport in the summer of 2009, and it looked fine to me. Seemed big and modern. What do you think is wrong with it, exactly?
Yep, same question.

To give you generic introduction, before LMB explains his point of view.

1. Okecie is still under construction, until then - it is not considered by some a "real" airport.
2. Another point of view is that there is a neverending discussion about a second airport for Warsaw. There are different opinions, clashes, etc. on what is better and where to build it, but the facts are the following:
- there has been a discussion about a new main airport for Warsaw, which basically produced no visible results.
- instead, two low-cost-class airports are planned or being built at the potential locations for this new-big-and-better airport.

Again, some people call the other hypothetical airport a "real" one.

BTW, Considering the new BBJ airport in Berlin, growing importance of regional airports (okecie accounts for afair 40% of the total passenger traffic in Poland), this might be another argument for A2

Apart from that, I agree that there is nothing wrong with Okecie But this is OT, sorry for that. LMB, nie wiesz kim jestem więc ...
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