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Old November 13th, 2011, 01:09 PM   #7121
mcarling
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Quote:
Originally Posted by toonczyk View Post
There is a reserve for an additional lane if it becomes necessary.
I think the 3rd lane will become necessary within two years due to induced demand.
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Old November 13th, 2011, 01:36 PM   #7122
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Code:
	                          Rok 2011	Rok 2013	Rok 2015	Rok 2020	Rok 2035
Odcinek	
Stryków-Łyszkowice (21,7 km)	62 500 (26,6)	62 900 (23,0)	66 900 (23,3)	63 500(25,2)	88 100 (27,0)
Łyszkowice-Nieborów (12,4 km)	55 000 (26,5)	55 400 (21,5)	58 700 (22,1)	54 100(23,5)	76 800 (25,9)
Nieborów-Wiskitki (21,9 km)	54 500 (29,8)	58 900 (23,6)	62 500 (24,0)	56 900 (25,3)	73 200 (27,7)
Wiskitki-Grodzisk (19,0 km)	51 800 (29,8)	65 900 (23,6)	69 000 (24,7)	64 800 (25,9)	76 100 (29,2)
Grodzisk-Pruszków (12,3 km)	74 600 (19,3)	96 800 (16,8)	102 300 (17,3)	101 800 (17,8)	120 600 (20,1)
Pruszków-Konotopa (4,7 km)	85 300 (16,7)	122 000 (16,3)	128 200 (16,6)	130 100 (16,8)	158 400 (18,1)
These are the projected traffic count numbers (with percentage of truck traffic in brackets) taken off the Siskom website. They don't seem to support your theory. And they were made with several assumptions some of which will not be fulfilled, while others are uncertain. For one, they assumed the vignette system will still be present for trucks, which it isn't, they have to pay per km. The other assumption was that passenger vehicles would pay 0,10 zł/km, which isn't certain since atm that price is 0,20 zł/km and the recent bill which proposes 0,10 zł/km is meant to apply only to motorways which recieved EU funding. I assume that the fall in AADT between most sections from 2015 to 2020 has something to do with (perhaps outdated) plans to have major sections of S7 complete by then.
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Old November 13th, 2011, 01:43 PM   #7123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeremiash View Post
These are the projected traffic count numbers (with percentage of truck traffic in brackets) taken off the Siskom website. They don't seem to support your theory. And they were made with several assumptions some of which will not be fulfilled, while others are uncertain.
Those numbers also seem to assume that induced demand does not occur. We'll see. Thank you for posting those projections.
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Old November 13th, 2011, 01:48 PM   #7124
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Those are actually pretty high traffic volumes for a new motorway.

I think Poland should count more than once every 5 years, especially nowadays with rapid changes in traffic volumes. In my opinion, they should count all major roads at least once a year.
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Old November 13th, 2011, 02:00 PM   #7125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcarling View Post
Those numbers also seem to assume that induced demand does not occur. We'll see. Thank you for posting those projections.
Those numbers were calculated using advanced scientific models, so I'd assume they count that in.
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Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
Those are actually pretty high traffic volumes for a new motorway.
Well, Warsaw metro area has a population of well over 2,5 million people, so that's not unexpected. But those number also show, that three-laning of A2 west of Grodzisk Mazowiecki is very unlikely in the next 20 years.
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Old November 13th, 2011, 02:47 PM   #7126
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Like toonczyk said, I would assume that they do factor in induced demand. Looking at the AADT of roads that could possible see some traffic shift to A2, I personally would say these numbers are still pretty optimistic. Here's the AADT 2010 table, you can check for yourself link. Dk 2 carries about 20k vehicles (jumps to 30k right before warsaw), most of them come from dk 14. Not many vehicles should leave dk 8 (most of it is soon going to be S8, and it's still going to be the route of choice for cars coming from the south), unless somewhere around mszczonów to get onto A2 in grodzisk mazowiecki and benefit from the improved entry into warsaw. Dk 8 carries around 30k vehicles. I'm very anxious to see what the reality is going to be like, to bad there's not going to another traffic count before 2015. But then again, that traffic count is going to encompass all routes that are being built now, which is good
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Old November 13th, 2011, 03:04 PM   #7127
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Astro01
...
1. Przyszłe SPO na węźle Piekary wygląda coraz lepiej. W tle wiadukt nad rondem, po którym leci obwodnica Piekar (DK911).
Can anybody explain me what is the difference between SPO and PPO?
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Old November 13th, 2011, 03:07 PM   #7128
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SPO is a toll point located on an interchange, outside the main carriageways of the motorways, while a PPO is a toll point located on the motorway itself.

So PPO:


SPO:

Last edited by jeremiash; November 13th, 2011 at 03:16 PM.
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Old November 13th, 2011, 03:22 PM   #7129
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
I think Poland should count more than once every 5 years, especially nowadays with rapid changes in traffic volumes. In my opinion, they should count all major roads at least once a year.
I agree. It's important to have good data.

Quote:
Originally Posted by toonczyk View Post
Those numbers were calculated using advanced scientific models, so I'd assume they count that in.
One would think so. I studied econometrics as part of a masters degree in mathematical economics, so I should have some idea of approximately what those models should look like. Let's take a superficial look at some of these numbers.

Consider Łyszkowice-Nieborów. These numbers project a 1.64% annual AADT growth rate from 2011 to 2015. Even without a new motorway opening during that period, that would be suspiciously low. Vehicle ownership in Poland rose at an average annual rate of 7.67% from 2004 to 2008 according to the EU:
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cac...-10-001-EN.PDF

The vehicle ownership growth rate has probably slowed since 2008 and will probably be well under 7% from 2011 to 2015, but still well above 1.64%. Ignoring induced demand, the null hypothesis should expect AADT between any two cities to grow at least as fast as the vehicle ownership growth rate -- except in cases of severe congestion. Induced demand should result in a substantial increase in AADT -- unless the model is based on an expectation of some unknown event substantially reducing AADT, for example, a pandemic killing a third of the population, or something similarly far-fetched. In other words, even with an assumption of zero induced demand, it's difficult to explain how the model could predict an AADT increase of only 1.64% per year from 2011 to 2015 between Łyszkowice and Nieborów.

I can read enough Polish to see that the 2011 numbers are, of course, projected. Maybe those are old numbers and the 2011 numbers assume that the A2 would open before the beginning of 2011? In that case, most of the increase from induced demand would already be built into the 2011 numbers, but 1.64% is still suspiciously low. The variance among the projected AADT growth rates from 2011 to 2015 for different sections is suspiciously high.

Does anyone have measured (not projected) AADT data for Warsaw-Łódź?

Quote:
Originally Posted by toonczyk View Post
those number also show, that three-laning of A2 west of Grodzisk Mazowiecki is very unlikely in the next 20 years.
I think the decision whether or not to build a third lane will depend not so much on modeled projections but on actual AADT measurements after the A2 is open. The opening of the S8 between Wrocław and Łódź should also cause induced demand to increase AADT on the A2 between Łódź and Warsaw.
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Old November 13th, 2011, 03:33 PM   #7130
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"induced demand" is a grossly overstated concept.

The main reasons for traffic growth are

* spatial development (housing, offices, factories, etc.)
* economic development (higher wages, villagers working in cities instead of agriculture, more jobs, recreation possibilities etc.)
* demographic development (population growth, multi-income households, etc.)
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Old November 13th, 2011, 03:34 PM   #7131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeremiash View Post
Like toonczyk said, I would assume that they do factor in induced demand. Looking at the AADT of roads that could possible see some traffic shift to A2, I personally would say these numbers are still pretty optimistic. Here's the AADT 2010 table, you can check for yourself link. Dk 2 carries about 20k vehicles (jumps to 30k right before warsaw), most of them come from dk 14. Not many vehicles should leave dk 8 (most of it is soon going to be S8, and it's still going to be the route of choice for cars coming from the south), unless somewhere around mszczonów to get onto A2 in grodzisk mazowiecki and benefit from the improved entry into warsaw. Dk 8 carries around 30k vehicles. I'm very anxious to see what the reality is going to be like, to bad there's not going to another traffic count before 2015. But then again, that traffic count is going to encompass all routes that are being built now, which is good
I just saw this after I posted the above. Thanks for the link.

What about the AADT on the 719 between Łódź and Warsaw? From my experience, I would guess it's probably between 12,000 and 25,000. I expect more than half of that will switch to the A2 when it opens.
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Old November 13th, 2011, 03:35 PM   #7132
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Check my post from 12:36 PM. I gave the link to AADT data for all of poland. Most łódź-warsaw traffic tries to get onto dk 8 as fast as possible atm. With S8 between piotrków trybunalski and mszczynów opening at the same time as A2 and it being free, it's going to be a major competition for A2.
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Old November 13th, 2011, 03:49 PM   #7133
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Dw 719 is 10k around grodzisk, 20k before pruszków, 30k after pruszków and 40k right before warsaw, but to me it seem that this has already been taken into account in the grodzisk-konotopa A2 projected AADT.
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Old November 13th, 2011, 03:50 PM   #7134
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
"induced demand" is a grossly overstated concept.

The main reasons for traffic growth are

* spatial development (housing, offices, factories, etc.)
* economic development (higher wages, villagers working in cities instead of agriculture, more jobs, recreation possibilities etc.)
* demographic development (population growth, multi-income households, etc.)
I think that induced demand might be higher in places where there are little alternatives, so it would be higher in Poland than in Holland. Presently there are tons of little roads in those regions and traffic spreads to all of them, so the traffic on the road that the motorway directly replaces might be deceptively small. Once you get a massive motorway built in the region, all the traffic from those little roads just goes into the motorway. However, when they estimate AADT they look only at the roads closest to the motorway and might miss something out. Also, once a motorway gets built, factories, logistics centres, houses, etc. tend to be built not too far from it because people want to live not far from a motorway and that's where businesses want to be located. That's how the demand gets induced and I think that it can get quite significant in a few years, especially in places like Poland where quality motorways and expressways are still scarce when compared to places like Holland.
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Old November 13th, 2011, 04:09 PM   #7135
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That is not really induced demand, but a shift of existing traffic to a new road. Induced demand is generally seen as new traffic that is generated because of a new motorway, regardless of spatial or socio-economic developments like I mentioned (i.e. the construction of the motorway is the sole reason for traffic increases). The concept of "induced demand" is highly debatable, and often used by opponents of any road improvement project.
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Old November 13th, 2011, 07:20 PM   #7136
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One more criterium about induced demand that can be very important in the Poland's case: the public/private transportation offer (or the lack of it) - trains, buses ... as well as its price.

Currently, the PKP situation doesn't look really good, so it's hard to say how many daily commuters - for instance - between Warsaw and Łódź will chose motorways & expressways. Moreover, as Chriszwolle wrote it in other terms, the A2 can create a real estate boom in places like Pruszków (you can already see it), Grodzisk Mazowiecki and so on. Some factories may move from inner Warsaw to the outskirts too...

So I think measuring the traffic flow every year is the best solution.
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Old November 13th, 2011, 08:09 PM   #7137
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeremiash View Post
Check my post from 12:36 PM. I gave the link to AADT data for all of poland.
Thanks, I did check that, but I didn't find DW719.

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Originally Posted by jeremiash View Post
Most łódź-warsaw traffic tries to get onto dk 8 as fast as possible atm. With S8 between piotrków trybunalski and mszczynów opening at the same time as A2 and it being free, it's going to be a major competition for A2.
Ok. I have no idea what routes most drivers choose. I've tried the A2 and the DW719 and they are both severely congested. I've driven the DK8 between Warsaw and Katowice, but I haven't tried it when going west because I've been going past Łódź on the A2.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jeremiash View Post
Dw 719 is 10k around grodzisk, 20k before pruszków, 30k after pruszków and 40k right before warsaw, but to me it seem that this has already been taken into account in the grodzisk-konotopa A2 projected AADT.
Thanks. I'm sure that is included in the projections for the A2. I'm trying to get a better idea of the baseline upon which the AADT is projected.

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Originally Posted by bleetz View Post
once a motorway gets built, factories, logistics centres, houses, etc. tend to be built not too far from it because people want to live not far from a motorway and that's where businesses want to be located. That's how the demand gets induced and I think that it can get quite significant in a few years, especially in places like Poland where quality motorways and expressways are still scarce when compared to places like Holland.
That's right, but it's not the only sort of induced demand. There are also a lot of trips that are taken just because the road is better than would not have been taken otherwise. Someone living in Łódź might go to the theatre in Warsaw if the drive is 45 minutes who would not go to the theatre if the drive were 2 hours, for example.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
The concept of "induced demand" is highly debatable, and often used by opponents of any road improvement project.
There is no serious debate over whether or induced demand occurs. There is serious debate over how to model induced demand. Yes, unfortunately, induced demand is abused by infrastructure opponents to naively resist development. If we can figure out how to model induced demand well, then it will not be so subject to abuse. It's also important to consider that many of the extra trips have economic benefit to society. It is certainly not the case that induced demand will always cause congestion to be just as bad as it was before the road improvement. In fact, that is rarely the case.

In the case at hand, congestion on the DK2 and DW719 will certainly be relieved.
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Old November 13th, 2011, 08:24 PM   #7138
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About the AADT's for dw 719 and other dw, here you go what interests me, personally is how drivers coming from wrocław (the south west basically) will react to the suggestion that they are meant to go through S8+A1+A2. Currently drivers just get onto the dk 8 and go all the way from wroclaw to warsaw through piotrków trybunalski. I wonder how much of that traffic will go through A2 and how much will attempt to get onto S8 piotrków-warsaw somewhere along the way.
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Old November 13th, 2011, 08:34 PM   #7139
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeremiash View Post
About the AADT's for dw 719 and other dw, here you go
Thank you!

Quote:
Originally Posted by jeremiash View Post
what interests me, personally is how drivers coming from wrocław (the south west basically) will react to the suggestion that they are meant to go through S8+A1+A2. Currently drivers just get onto the dk 8 and go all the way from wroclaw to warsaw through piotrków trybunalski. I wonder how much of that traffic will go through A2 and how much will attempt to get onto S8 piotrków-warsaw somewhere along the way.
I think anyone trying to optimize trip time probably will drive S8+A1+A2. I think anyone trying to optimize trip cost probably will drive S8+DK12+S8. Alternatives?
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Old November 13th, 2011, 08:45 PM   #7140
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As S8 Piotrków Trybunalski - Mszczonów (DK8) and A2 Stryków - Konotopa (S2) are being built simultaneously, one of the keys for the A2 to take a lot of traffic from the S8 would be building the Western Łódź bypass & trying to reroute people travelling through the Łódź agglomeration to skip the A1 solution.

On the other hand, as the toll plazas are made in Stryków, I'm not sure this option would work for the A2. BUT nobody knows when the S8 Mszczonów-Janki and the S7 from the Southern Warsaw S2/S79 crossing (which could take a lot of traffic from overcongested Janki, Raszyn and the Włochy district of Warsaw) will be made.

So on the one hand, Jeremiash is right to point out the S8 being a great toll-free competitor for the A2. On the other, I think people who will be in a real rush will take the A2 ... I'm not sure making a 3rd lane on the A2 will be necessary soon...

P.S.: I just updated my GPS and ... surprise ! the A2 already appears from the German border to Warsaw ! Same for the S2 and S79 ! Love Becker !
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"Richtgeschwindigkeit" should be the default system in all EU motorways & expressways & lane indiscipline should be harshly fought! Down with radars on motorways!

Last edited by GROBIN; November 13th, 2011 at 09:03 PM.
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