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Old September 20th, 2017, 08:08 AM   #4961
MattiG
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElviS77 View Post
The Bedre Veier map is, of course, just a flight of fancy. Not mainly because of the absurd investments such projects would require, and the environmental impact that many new motorways/expressways would have, but because traffic never would warrant it. A few spot checks: E6 - Ballangen (south of Narvik) 1984, Trofors (south of Mosjøen) 1203, Snåsavatnet (north of Steinkjer) 3010, Dombås south 4122; E39 - Orkanger west 3700, south of Førde airport 2950, Eikefet tunnel 2500; Rv 52 Hemsedalsfjellet 1300; Rv 3 Koppang 2600; Rv 5 Sogndal north 2450; E134 Haukeli 1600... And so on and so forth (source: https://www.vegvesen.no/vegkart/). I'm all in favour of improving Norwegian roads considerably, but this reminds me of my map-drawing efforts in old NAF Veibøker when I was about ten.

Of course, some of these proposals will become reality given time, others are a question of political will, but the whole grid..? Please... As a side-note, one of the least unrealistic of the high-flying propositions is shortening the E6 through Finnmark, as the Arctic may open more with climate changes. In addition, it would not be exceptionally expensive to build roughly 100 kms of road through flat terrain. Environmental concerns are a different matter, though.
What is that Bedre Veier? Anything else than a map drawing club ignoring the cost dimension?
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Old September 20th, 2017, 11:01 AM   #4962
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The first blast of winter arrived in Southern Norway. There were trucks chaining up at Dovrefjell (E6).

https://www.nrk.no/trondelag/snofall...old-1.13697268



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Old September 20th, 2017, 11:07 AM   #4963
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The first blast of winter arrived in Southern Norway. There were trucks chaining up at Dovrefjell (E6).

https://www.nrk.no/trondelag/snofall...old-1.13697268



How surprising. A Polish truck. Those ones block the Ring I of Helsinki as soon as the first gram of snow arrives.
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Old September 20th, 2017, 12:15 PM   #4964
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I have mentioned the "Bedre Veier" (better roads) (www.bedrevei.no) organization a couple of times before. What I did not realize is that they actually made a complete road plan report (in Norwegian) earlier this year, with standard specifications, costs, benefits, environmental impact, urban transport, and rather detailed routes. In short, this organization seems surprisingly professional, with most of the people in the board being experienced professionals in the field. Hopefully, their visions will inspire the politicians even more ahead as the climate argument against roads is fading with the accelerating electrification of auto transportation ahead.
"If you have visions, go and see a doctor".
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Dream on, I'd say
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Old September 20th, 2017, 09:49 PM   #4965
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What is that Bedre Veier? Anything else than a map drawing club ignoring the cost dimension?
Actually, it looks like a group of very well educated people. With a lot of connections in the political environment.

The board of directors includes
Erling Sæther, consultant in Flowchange AS. A consultant company within transport and logistics. Former director of NHO Logistics and Transport.
Knut Selberg, professor of roads and traffic at NTNU.
Dag Bjørnland, professor of transport and logistics. Former CEO of Transportøkonomisk Institutt.
Eiril Bø, professor and researcher of logistics, transport and supply chains at BI Business School.
Olav Ellevset, former manager of the project "Ferry free E39", and former regional manager in Statens Vegvesen.
Stein Fyksen, former project director in Statens Vegvesen, and former director of the planning department at the Directorate of Public Roads. Former road manager of region east.
Ivar Sørlie, former transport manager of Oslo municipality, and former CEO of Transportøkonomisk Institutt.

And as 54°26′S 3°24′E said, they've made a complete road plan which includes all cost calculations. They estimate a total cost of 1 153 billion NOK. Something that should not be impossible in 20-30 years.
Hell, in the next 12 years it's planned to use 659 billion NOK on roads. That's just under 55 billion annually. With that annual spending, we'll need 21 years to reach the estimated 1 153 billion.

Last edited by Kjello0; September 20th, 2017 at 10:51 PM.
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Old September 20th, 2017, 10:18 PM   #4966
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Quote:
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What is that Bedre Veier? Anything else than a map drawing club ignoring the cost dimension?
They're not any map-drawing club, and they're not necessarily ignoring cost - but probably seriously underestimating it... - but they certainly ignore what's politically possible, what's actually needed, and the available money - the oil wealth is very finite, and there are limits to how much one can get from tolls. In addition, in the not too distant future we may see more money moving to rail development and construction.

As stated years ago, the biggest problem with visions like this is that it actually makes other people in favour of improving our road network in a more modest and realistic fashion also look fairly silly. It is, in fact, counter-productive. The ferry-free E39 is already facing serious opposition, and I'm not even completely certain the Haugesund-Bergen section will come to fruition.
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Old September 21st, 2017, 12:09 PM   #4967
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I might add that I drove the E6 from Oslo to Dombås last summer. It went very smoothly although it is "only" a 1+1 road and there were many tourists. Parts of the road a being realigned, new tunnels are being built.
Admittedly, you can't do more than 80 kph, but it is not like the road were congested, not even with all those RVs on the road.
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Old September 21st, 2017, 12:24 PM   #4968
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Congestion is only common at the beginning and end of holidays such as easter, when "everyone" wants to hit the mountains and traffic volumes triple or quadruple. Generally speaking, improving roads like E6 in Gudbrandsdalen has as much to do with road safety as with traffic flow - it's certainly a better selling point...
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Old September 21st, 2017, 12:34 PM   #4969
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElviS77 View Post
They're not any map-drawing club, and they're not necessarily ignoring cost - but probably seriously underestimating it... - but they certainly ignore what's politically possible, what's actually needed, and the available money - the oil wealth is very finite, and there are limits to how much one can get from tolls. In addition, in the not too distant future we may see more money moving to rail development and construction.

As stated years ago, the biggest problem with visions like this is that it actually makes other people in favour of improving our road network in a more modest and realistic fashion also look fairly silly. It is, in fact, counter-productive. The ferry-free E39 is already facing serious opposition, and I'm not even completely certain the Haugesund-Bergen section will come to fruition.
Well... We can consider the vision as a long-sighted preparation to the exhaustion of the oil sources and returning to agriculture. Moving fish needs good roads. :-)
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Old September 21st, 2017, 01:49 PM   #4970
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The question whether we need a national motorway road network, i.e. binding together the regional ones currently under development, has been discussed time and time again here, and I do not intend to spend a lot of time on this now, except to again stress that there is a very large transfer potential from air traffic, which must be taken into account when estimating future road traffic. Pointing at current numbers in eg Østerdalen is hence not very relevant. However, in order to get transfer from environmental irressponsible high Norwegian air travel to roads, the speed needs to go up. Electric car travel is already here, but air travel has the fundamental challenge of weight to be solved, which probably does not have any good solution.

To get transfer from air, it is not enough to get rid of jams, only motorway speeds will get total travel time between the largest cities of Norway comparable with air traffic with all its hassles.

Norway is currently building and planning roads (eg motorway Trondheim-Ulsberg) which used to be unthinkable a few years back, and, as the environmentalists get more and more problems arguing against car travel due to electrification, I think this development will accelerate. The total costs of the admittedly ambitious Bedre Veier vision is 1150 billion NOK. That is 230 kNOK per capita, which sounds like quite a lot. However, distributed over 25 years this is less than 10 kNOK/capita, which is less than the average Norwegian already pays in tolls and car related fees (~12 kNOK in 2016).
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Old September 21st, 2017, 03:56 PM   #4971
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E6 Soknedal

A render of the E6 upgrade at Soknedal. They note that the 3.6 km tunnel has been approved for two tubes, but the second tube will only be constructed if traffic volumes warrant it. Given the fact that they only expect an AADT of 7,500 by 2050, that'll likely not happen in the forseeable future.

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Old September 21st, 2017, 04:37 PM   #4972
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I think they should start building more double-tunnels if only for safety reasons. Double tunnels make everything much safer.
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Old September 21st, 2017, 04:52 PM   #4973
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So we're going to spend 1150 billion NOK (1/7th oil fund) to build 2+2 (or more) high ways all over the country? Future generations would look back at that construction as the moment the norwegians lost it. And imagine the maintenance costs. We're already spending a TON on roads per capita.

If we're going to spend a gazillion dollars on a vanity project, it better be HSR.

A lot of the travel in the golden triangle between Oslo, Trondheim and Bergen is business travel. No matter how fancy roads we build and no matter how many ""green"" Teslas norwegians buy, you won't get business people to commute on road with a personal vehicle. The best you can hope for is HSR if the motive is environmentalism (which I take the freedom to doubt)
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Old September 21st, 2017, 07:08 PM   #4974
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
A render of the E6 upgrade at Soknedal. They note that the 3.6 km tunnel has been approved for two tubes, but the second tube will only be constructed if traffic volumes warrant it. Given the fact that they only expect an AADT of 7,500 by 2050, that'll likely not happen in the forseeable future.

Hopefully you are wrong. If Nye Veier gets their will and build four lanes both to the south and north of this upgrade, SSV has stated that also their Soknedalen section should be expanded similarly during the same time period (i.e. which Nye veier hopes to be within 10 years or so).
http://www.nyeveier.no/fire-felt-gjennom-soknedal/

In any case, 7500 by 2050 sounds like a typical underestimation. The AADT in 2016 was 5800 (from SVV, 2017 AADT of video is clearly outdated/wrong) . The average national traffic growth in 2016 was 2.2 %. Assuming this percentage of growth will continue, we will have > 12 000 AADT by 2050. However, there are large regional differences in traffic growth. In the cities, car traffic has stopped growing or even some cases in decline. The same is true for rural areas with declining population. E6 in Soknedal on the other hand is part of the important Trondheim-Oppdal, with e.g. its ever-increasing leisure travel, and probably will continue to see much higher growth than the national average. Planned road improvements will fuel this growth further.

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So we're going to spend 1150 billion NOK (1/7th oil fund) to build 2+2 (or more) high ways all over the country? Future generations would look back at that construction as the moment the norwegians lost it. And imagine the maintenance costs. We're already spending a TON on roads per capita.

If we're going to spend a gazillion dollars on a vanity project, it better be HSR.

A lot of the travel in the golden triangle between Oslo, Trondheim and Bergen is business travel. No matter how fancy roads we build and no matter how many ""green"" Teslas norwegians buy, you won't get business people to commute on road with a personal vehicle. The best you can hope for is HSR if the motive is environmentalism (which I take the freedom to doubt)
I personally think 1/7 of the oil fund on roads would be a much better investments than spending the money on welfare benefits, HSR, or whatever you think should be prioritized. However, IMO, as this investment will be made (or paid down) over many years, there is no need to touch the oil fund at all.

Some parts of the air travel is of course bussiness, but a lot is also tourists, students, family reunions etc. Most of my travels are for bussiness, btw, you would be surprised how many of us would relish the to get rid of all the hassle air travel encompasses if it took roughly the same time.

As for your predicted regret of future generation, do you think this is the way that the Americans (or for that matter Germans) feel? After all, parts of their rural motorway network was built with very low initial traffic volumes, partly with much higher standards than Bedre Veier is proposing.
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Old September 21st, 2017, 10:04 PM   #4975
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Ryfast:






https://www.facebook.com/pg/ryfast/p...=page_internal
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Old September 21st, 2017, 11:17 PM   #4976
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As for your predicted regret of future generation, do you think this is the way that the Americans (or for that matter Germans) feel? After all, parts of their rural motorway network was built with very low initial traffic volumes, partly with much higher standards than Bedre Veier is proposing.
Not wanting to kill your argument, but comparing with the USA or Germany is quite stupid.

As of 1925 there was 161 000 registered cars in Germany, and about 60 million people living there. Four years later, there was 433 000 cars. An increase of more than 260 %. It was quite given that if everyone were to have a car, it would demand a high capacity road network. Pretty much everywhere.

Likewise, as of 1950, there was 25 million cars in the US. And a population of 150 million. By 1958 there was 67 million cars. That's also an increase of more than 260 %. It was quite given that one had to build high capacity roads for a future where pretty much everyone had a car.

Also, both Germany and the US were (and is) big manufactures of cars. Hence it was in their interest to motivate people to buy cars. And because of this they needed roads that could handle all the cars they wanted to sell.

Norway is a country of 5 million people. With more than 3 million cars. It is very hard to see how the number of cars, and hence traffic, will increase that dramatically in Norway the next 20, 30 or even 50 years.

That being said, we're not going to build 2+2 roads all over the country. Much of the proposed network is 1+1 roads with passing lanes.

And pretty much all of the proposed motorways is all ready planned to be at least 1+1 roads with passing lanes.
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Old September 22nd, 2017, 12:09 AM   #4977
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 54°26′S 3°24′E View Post
Hopefully you are wrong. If Nye Veier gets their will and build four lanes both to the south and north of this upgrade, SSV has stated that also their Soknedalen section should be expanded similarly during the same time period (i.e. which Nye veier hopes to be within 10 years or so).
http://www.nyeveier.no/fire-felt-gjennom-soknedal/
Actually it looks that the section from Vindåsliene to the Skjærli tunnel will be planned as a two-lane road with lower speed. Not saying if this will be from north or south of this tunnel. Winding and narrow valley is the main reason, which will drive up the project-costs in this area. That will leave a larger gap than the SVV-part anyway.

http://www.nyeveier.no/8830/
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Old September 22nd, 2017, 03:59 PM   #4978
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E105

The new Bøkfjord Bridge at Elvenes, Finnmark. It will be inaugurated on 28 September by the Norwegian and Russian federal minister of transport.



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Old September 24th, 2017, 10:52 PM   #4979
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Quote:
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Actually it looks that the section from Vindåsliene to the Skjærli tunnel will be planned as a two-lane road with lower speed. Not saying if this will be from north or south of this tunnel. Winding and narrow valley is the main reason, which will drive up the project-costs in this area. That will leave a larger gap than the SVV-part anyway.

http://www.nyeveier.no/8830/
Not crystal clear to me if they mean anything else than the SVV section here. In any case we just have to wait and see what the government says on the Nye Veier proposals.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kjello0 View Post
Not wanting to kill your argument, but comparing with the USA or Germany is quite stupid.

As of 1925 there was 161 000 registered cars in Germany, and about 60 million people living there. Four years later, there was 433 000 cars. An increase of more than 260 %. It was quite given that if everyone were to have a car, it would demand a high capacity road network. Pretty much everywhere.

Likewise, as of 1950, there was 25 million cars in the US. And a population of 150 million. By 1958 there was 67 million cars. That's also an increase of more than 260 %. It was quite given that one had to build high capacity roads for a future where pretty much everyone had a car.

Also, both Germany and the US were (and is) big manufactures of cars. Hence it was in their interest to motivate people to buy cars. And because of this they needed roads that could handle all the cars they wanted to sell.

Norway is a country of 5 million people. With more than 3 million cars. It is very hard to see how the number of cars, and hence traffic, will increase that dramatically in Norway the next 20, 30 or even 50 years.

That being said, we're not going to build 2+2 roads all over the country. Much of the proposed network is 1+1 roads with passing lanes.

And pretty much all of the proposed motorways is all ready planned to be at least 1+1 roads with passing lanes.
My main point, which was perhaps not very clearly conveyed, was that at least the US road network was not built with only capacity in mind, but also to tie the country together with a high speed road network for both cars and trucks. Portions of this network (in the north and west in particular) still have very light traffic compared with what can be expected on the four lane sections of "Bedre Veier".
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Old September 26th, 2017, 12:38 PM   #4980
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To get transfer from air, it is not enough to get rid of jams, only motorway speeds will get total travel time between the largest cities of Norway comparable with air traffic with all its hassles.
Air travel hassles Norway??? All those words in the same sentence?? I don't know if you do much air travel outside of Norway but air travel inside Norway is about as seamless and trouble free as air travel can be, it doesn't get any better than Norway. For example I can leave home in Molde at 6.00, be on the 6.50 flight to Oslo and be at my company's head office before 9.00.

Car or rail will never be able to beat that or be as cheap.

The only hassle in Norway is Norwegians inability to understand the concept of PRIORITY BOARDING!!!
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