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Old October 11th, 2017, 12:14 AM   #5041
MattiG
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Galro View Post
Yes, all there project are required to go through a cost–benefit analysis before construction and there many proposed projects that never made it because the cost was too high relative to the benefit.
That is quite evident. However, anyone having experience about such calculations, know how volatile and subject to manipulation they are. Many factors are speculative, and fine-tuning weights may result in suitable figures. Based on the same input data, one may end up to a benefit/cost ratio of 0.5 while someone else could reach 3.0.
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Old October 11th, 2017, 12:44 AM   #5042
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So I think the only feasible alternative would be to drop the whole exit.
Yup. But that would, of course, require that the ferry service remained... Perhaps not all that expensive, but it'll certainly look a bit weird to many when we build a world record tunnel under the Boknafjord but maintain a ferry to get halfway across it... Just my two cents.
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Old October 11th, 2017, 04:07 PM   #5043
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Well, Kvitsøy has a population of 550, and the ferryservice had an AADT of a whopping 381 cars in 2016, and the frequency is less than one ferry per hour. You probably can provide free ferries with 5 course luxury meals for a fraction of the capital cost of the tunnel exit.

Maybe there also could be a matter of tunnel safety involved, as the main tunnel is very long? As seen in the illustration, they also plan to use Kvitsøy for ventilation of the tunnel.
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Old October 11th, 2017, 04:08 PM   #5044
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It could qualify as an escape option.
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Old October 11th, 2017, 04:21 PM   #5045
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The Kvitsøy exit is of course commented also in the QA of the project: https://www.regjeringen.no/contentas...39-rogfast.pdf

The main finding was that the construction will be faster and more efficient, and hence the corresponding capital costs lower and economics better, if the tunnel was blasted in both directions from Kvitsøy. This will allow a total of 4 tunnel stuffs. The total benefit is estimated to be 2 billion NOK, but there is some uncertainty involved here, of course. Making a full road tunnel up to Kvitsøy will lead to additional costs, but only marginally so. I am convinced ;-)
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Old October 11th, 2017, 08:07 PM   #5046
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The Kvitsøy exit is of course commented also in the QA of the project: https://www.regjeringen.no/contentas...39-rogfast.pdf
The document contains interesting items. The road toll calculations are based on the toll of NOK 330 for a passenger car. The ferry price on the route Arsvågen-Mortavika was NOK 101 (for a car and the driver) before the surcharge for advance payment was introduced. Despite of the high price, the number of vehicles are expected to grow by 40-50 per cent immediately after the tunnel gets opened. (The Norwegian concept of advance payment is somewhat controversial: People get charged for nothing.)

Norway has used a mathematical model to estimate the incoming toll money as a function of the toll charge level. That model has not been extremely successful on estimating the behavior on the people. The gap between the planned and actual time of downpayment has been several years in some cases. Tripling the toll and in the same time increasing the demand by 40-50% sounds quite a challenging business case.
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Old October 11th, 2017, 08:11 PM   #5047
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There is an evaluation of toll road projecs available, which shows the average traffic is higher than expected on most toll projects, with fjord crossings exceeding expectations the most, by 46.5% on average.

http://vegnett.no/2017/07/bompengepr...o-ar-for-tida/
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Old October 11th, 2017, 09:38 PM   #5048
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There is an evaluation of toll road projecs available, which shows the average traffic is higher than expected on most toll projects, with fjord crossings exceeding expectations the most, by 46.5% on average.

http://vegnett.no/2017/07/bompengepr...o-ar-for-tida/
Because most of those projects involved substantially lower toll charges, it is questionable whether the results can be generalized to be applicable for Rogfast. For example, the most notorious forecasting failure happened at Eiksundsambandet. That project was financed mainly by the government, and the share of toll charges was 20% only, and the resulting toll was NOK 75. For the Rogfast project, 77% on the investment money should be collected by tolls. The 350% higher price tag, I believe, cannot be without an impact to the behaviour of people.

One interesting topic was included in the earlier mentioned document: The increasing number of electric cars was raised as a financial risk, because those ones do not pay toll. It is somewhat a naive approach to me to build on top of an assumption that such an exemption would last forever.
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Old October 12th, 2017, 02:09 AM   #5049
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Quote:
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Because most of those projects involved substantially lower toll charges, it is questionable whether the results can be generalized to be applicable for Rogfast. For example, the most notorious forecasting failure happened at Eiksundsambandet. That project was financed mainly by the government, and the share of toll charges was 20% only, and the resulting toll was NOK 75. For the Rogfast project, 77% on the investment money should be collected by tolls. The 350% higher price tag, I believe, cannot be without an impact to the behaviour of people.

One interesting topic was included in the earlier mentioned document: The increasing number of electric cars was raised as a financial risk, because those ones do not pay toll. It is somewhat a naive approach to me to build on top of an assumption that such an exemption would last forever.
Note that the presumed interest rate they used in the calculations is substantially higher than what the project management has been able to get in the financial market. IIRC all of the price savings will be spent on reducing the toll charge.
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Old October 12th, 2017, 10:04 AM   #5050
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Note that the presumed interest rate they used in the calculations is substantially higher than what the project management has been able to get in the financial market. IIRC all of the price savings will be spent on reducing the toll charge.
That is true. If I recall, the rate was as high as 5%, thus making quite a thick risk management buffer. During the last few years, I have used the rate of 1.5% as the default rate in my work-related investment calculations.
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Old October 12th, 2017, 01:51 PM   #5051
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Discount rates have an enormous impact on long-term projects. Best practices are to either use the actual rates of plausible financing for the project, or use some spread models over long-term government yield bonds.

With high discount rates, the weight of far-removed in the future cash flows in the present value is much smaller. Which is why, with a high enough interest rate, it makes no sense to commit to projects with somehow stable cash flows that go over 25-30 years, the addition of present value doesn't pay off the addition of long-term financial risk associated with exogenous factors or all sorts. With interest rates near zero, PPI schemes with a 40-year horizon or so start being more attractive.

70, 90. 100 years projects are often a bad choice from the perspective of taxpayers. They are a boon to private partners though because of asymmetric risk in case of PPI.

This is tricky in a smaller currency market like Norway that is nonetheless very tied to the macro trends in the Eurozone, yet out of it, subject to specific commodity price shocks etc.
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Old October 13th, 2017, 06:51 PM   #5052
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New county road 243 in Sifjorden in Troms.


https://www.vareveger.no/artikler/kj...torsken/409403
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Old October 13th, 2017, 07:23 PM   #5053
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I think I've seen more professional-looking infrastructure renderings.
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“The transponder’s personalised signal would be picked up when the car passed through an intersection, and then relayed to a central computer which would calculate the charge according to the intersection and the time of day and add it to the car’s bill” - Nobel Economics Prize winner William Vickrey, proposing a system of electronic tolling for the Washington metropolitan area, 1959
In real life, electronic toll collection was first introduced in Bergen, Norway in 1986, and well into the 21th century many countries still struggle to implement it.

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Old October 13th, 2017, 11:31 PM   #5054
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A picture showing e-18 at Skøyen from the '60s.



And at Frognerstranda in 1974.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 01:53 PM   #5055
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E136 / Mannen

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Mannen is on the move again. It moved 20 centimeters in one day, the largest movement recorded so far. The underlying area has been evacuated and the danger level has been moved up to 'high'.

E136 has not been closed at this moment though.

https://www.nrk.no/mr/nattens-bevege...nen-1.13723245

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The pieces of rock that is on the move is about 120-180 000 cubic meters, and has slided 60cm so far the last three months. However, due to the last days of intense rain it has reached the speed of 7cm just today! This rockfall will be large, but most of these masses will not reach the railroad or the houses, but smaller rocks and debre might reach the river which is why they evacuate everyone at Lyngheim, Rønningen and Lyngheimsgjerdet.

The piece of rock on the move is a small part high up on B in this map. Section A, B and C is what makes up the entire moving part of Mannen (100 million cubic meters). Section A has a speed of about 10cm pr year. Section B has a speed of 5cm pr year. Section C has a speed of less than 1cm pr year. Its expected that section A and B will fall down within the year of 2100. When they do they will destroy today's railroad-line, European rout 136, several farms and houses and dam up the Rauma river for a while. A potential breakup might be catastrophic for the city of Åndalsnes 5km further down the river.

Section A: 2-4 million m3 Section A+B: 15-25 million M3 Section A, B and C: 100 million m3
The danger level at Mannen has been upgraded again, to 'extreme'. The surrounding area is being evacuated, NRK has a livestream on the mountain.

https://www.nrk.no/mr/rasfarlege-_mannen_-1.12001189
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Old October 16th, 2017, 06:24 PM   #5056
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Riksvei 83, Harstad

Breakthrough has been achieved at the 1369 meter long Harstadås Tunnel in Northern Norway.

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Old October 18th, 2017, 09:46 AM   #5057
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The danger level at Mannen has been upgraded again, to 'extreme'. The surrounding area is being evacuated, NRK has a livestream on the mountain.

https://www.nrk.no/mr/rasfarlege-_mannen_-1.12001189
The Veslemannen (The little man) is once again slowing down as the winter has arrived at that altitude. Most likely it will survive another winter, at least. Not an ideal situation for the evacuated locals.

The highway is not in immediate danger, btw, it will only be buried once a larger part of the mountain falls down ("Mannen" - the man), but as explained above, that is most likely decades away.
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Old October 18th, 2017, 06:01 PM   #5058
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Nice video about the planned bridge across Bjørnafjorden (E39).

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Old October 18th, 2017, 06:34 PM   #5059
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It would be awesome if that would be built.

However in July they said they could save 8 billion NOK on the Bjørnafjord Bridge by constructing a pontoon bridge with 100 meter spans similar to Nordhordland Bridge: https://www.vegvesen.no/Europaveg/e3...rdar-billigare
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Old October 19th, 2017, 05:23 PM   #5060
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I would go with the multi-span suspension bridge based on looks.
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