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Old September 16th, 2011, 11:30 AM   #1541
KiwiRob
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And the result of doing nothing will be companies moving production offshore like my CEO has indicated, transport costs and high wages are killing off industry in Norway. The govt has to do something.
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Old September 16th, 2011, 12:01 PM   #1542
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Originally Posted by ElviS77 View Post
I know. Nonetheless, that is no reason to believe that a new centre-right government will change things fundamentally. And 2800 kms of motorway by 2040 is, again, completely unrealistic. Even if things were to change somewhat. Not because it's impossible to do, but because there is no fundamental political agreement about doing it, ant there never will be.
2050 is my set date because it will demand 10 years to detail plan this network.

The current government opens about 35 km of motorway each year atm. Lets say this goes up to 50 km with a right-wing government. Even the current government plans an increase in motorway building the next 40 years. That alone means 2 000 km the next 40 years. Along with the 350 km we have today. To reach 2 800 km by 2050 we need to open 61 km of motorway each year. But unlike the current government, I want to look at the whole network as one piece. One piece of about 5 200 km of road. Not look at every 15 km as one piece.

The problem is and will be that we have to stop the government from using a lot of money on useless projects like building expressways Trondheim - Steinkjer for over 23 billions when a modern motorway and a better railway would only cost 7 billions more. A project that at it's best well last 20 years before an additional 25-30 billions will be needed to upgrade the stretch to motorway. Building motorway between Trondheim and Stjørdal had an extra cost of 230 millions in the late 80's. Today the same piece is estimated to cost ******* 2,8 billions. An increase of over 1 200 % in 20-25 years.

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Old September 19th, 2011, 10:35 AM   #1543
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E16 Sandvika

Set to start construction in 2013 this 3,5km long 4-lane expressway connects E18 with the new road opened in 2009 and will have 80km/h speedlimit. Round-about in northern end will be removed. The new project consists of a new tunnel in southern part, and widening of current corridor in northern part.

Vegvesenet suggested to put a round-about at the beginning of the new road in central Sandvika, but local municipality refused this. The new road will connect with existing road inside the short 4-lane tunnel and area on top of cut-over will be planted as a park instead.

Vegvesenet proposal:


Approved solution:


How new ramps directly from a new E18 will connect with the E16:


Only traffic to/from Oslo is proposed direct ramps when/if E18 is tunneled trough Sandvika. Tunnel safety is used as an argument against complicated underground intersections. E18 west will use local road-system to reach E16.
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Old September 20th, 2011, 12:55 AM   #1544
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I don't remember the accurate numbers, but I think prioritizing E16/E18 east is ok. Plus also E18 techincly is the new E16, isn't it? (perhaps it will be co-signed?)
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Old September 20th, 2011, 01:04 AM   #1545
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no, new E16 (is it signed yet) goes via the Rv35, avoiding Oslo - the existing bit will be a long spur.
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Old September 20th, 2011, 06:58 AM   #1546
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For traffic Drammen - Hønefoss the natural road is the shortcut trough Sylling anyway.

I'm wondering about how it will be signed aswell. I would like for it to get a new number, but then again i would also like E18 to move under the fjord....

Technicly i think that "arm E16" ends in the Opera tunnel as of now just like E14 starts in Trondheim altough signed in brackets before leaving E6.
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Old September 21st, 2011, 07:01 PM   #1547
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2050 is my set date because it will demand 10 years to detail plan this network.

The current government opens about 35 km of motorway each year atm. Lets say this goes up to 50 km with a right-wing government. Even the current government plans an increase in motorway building the next 40 years. That alone means 2 000 km the next 40 years. Along with the 350 km we have today. To reach 2 800 km by 2050 we need to open 61 km of motorway each year. But unlike the current government, I want to look at the whole network as one piece. One piece of about 5 200 km of road. Not look at every 15 km as one piece.

The problem is and will be that we have to stop the government from using a lot of money on useless projects like building expressways Trondheim - Steinkjer for over 23 billions when a modern motorway and a better railway would only cost 7 billions more. A project that at it's best well last 20 years before an additional 25-30 billions will be needed to upgrade the stretch to motorway. Building motorway between Trondheim and Stjørdal had an extra cost of 230 millions in the late 80's. Today the same piece is estimated to cost ******* 2,8 billions. An increase of over 1 200 % in 20-25 years.

If you don't speak you won't have an impact. So use your voice god dammit!
To be somewhat more specific: Many of your ideas are sensible in my book, even though the scale of your ideas is too large for me. I don't see the point in spending billions on motorways where the AADT never will reach 5, let alone 10 thousand. I do, however, see the benefit in speeding up motorway construction on busier segments of roads and improving safety standards (central barriers etc) and road alignments on other parts of our roads, with a particular eye on the national grid ("riksveier", "europaveier").

Still, what you or I want isn't that important. Even though the political system turns MP candidates' promises of new roads in a given area into election-winners, this is not reflected in the world of realpolitik at Stortinget. Partly because of the very same system, but mostly due to competition with other issues deemed equally or more important. In addition, Norway is not a very centralist country, and the competition for funds between regions is rather pathetic. A classic example is when the new Oslo airport was built, politicians representing other regions stated that Oslo had had its turn, now they should get similar amounts of money at the expense of the Oslo area.

In addition, a centre-right coalition would not do the trick in terms of developing a grid remotely similar to what you're suggesting, as such have been tried for decades without any real effect. In fact, even a right-wing Conservative-Progress Party coalition would not do. Not simply because they wouldn't win consecutive elections for 40 years (if ever...), but because the parties would need to favour infrastructure over virtually anything else, and that is politically impossible, at least for the Conservatives.

Furthermore, there is the issue of consensus I've touched upon before. Massive political schemes with a long-term impact have always required a larger, bipartisan agreement. In short - at least - the Labour Party would need to be on board, otherwise such plans would change along with the changes of parlamentary majority. As a matter of fact, the only way real change in infrastructure politics could happen, is if the Conservatives and Labour agree. Otherwise, we might get a few metres extra motorway from time to time, but national network thinking would remain hostage by rural centrist politicians.
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Old September 23rd, 2011, 11:53 AM   #1548
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At the end, what the people in Norway want is important. If Kjello0 and people with similar thoughts get their message through, there is no reason that something similar to his strategy could be realized through a fourty years' period. After all, we live in a democracy, don't we? Or should we just passively watch the infrastructure fall appart?

I don't believe any of the motorways I have proposed at least, would have less than 5000 AADT if they opened today. The traffic growth between 1995 and 2006 was 67 % in Norway. There is no reason to believe that this growth will slow down:
  • Norway has record high population growth
  • Energy prices will increase dramatically in the future, which will make air transport much more expensive
Hence, your "AADT never will reach 5, let alone 10 thousand" argument is in my opinion just empty rethorics.

Furthermore, there is no need to "favour infrastructure over virtually anything else", as you put it, in order to fulfill a decent road network in Norway. Kjello0 is talking about a total investment of 650 billion NOK and an annual cost of about 22 billion NOK for a complete highway makeover. I estimated based on existing cost data a few years ago that a national (mainly Southern Norway) motorway would cost up to 230 billion NOK (see signature). To put these numbers in perspective:Choose the number of your liking, but in a 40 years' perspective the investments of a motorway network are equivalent to pocket money.

Furthermore, I believe the political trends are clear. We just need to push them a little. One major party in the Norwegian parliament has argued for a national motorway network for many years already. The conservative party of Norway is playing with similar ideas. Even some leading politicians of labor are now arguing for a streamlining of the tedious Norwegian planning regime, and calls for a more national control and holistic and long term thinking regarding infrastructure planning. More importantly, however, is that:
  • More energy efficient cars and electrication of the car fleet will make the climate argument against road construction even less relevant in the future
  • The oil production of Norway is in clear decline, and Norway will be more dependent on inland productivity in the future. At some point the realization that expenses for road development is not a cost, but an investment, will sink in.

If we play with the idea that the two parties to the right in the Norwegian political spectrum actually win the next election, which is quite likely, IMO, they will probably pass a bill for a long term development of a motorway network. I do not think it is likely that a labor dominated government later will pull back from this, it will be too politically costly, but could of course slow down development. Probably, the predictability would be best if a national tolling scheme such as the one Kjello proposed would be implemented with support from the labor, but it wouls be a very painful compromize for the rightmost party in the parliament....
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Last edited by 54°26′S 3°24′E; September 23rd, 2011 at 11:59 AM.
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Old September 23rd, 2011, 08:05 PM   #1549
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 54°26′S 3°24′E View Post
At the end, what the people in Norway want is important. If Kjello0 and people with similar thoughts get their message through, there is no reason that something similar to his strategy could be realized through a fourty years' period. After all, we live in a democracy, don't we? Or should we just passively watch the infrastructure fall appart?

I don't believe any of the motorways I have proposed at least, would have less than 5000 AADT if they opened today. The traffic growth between 1995 and 2006 was 67 % in Norway. There is no reason to believe that this growth will slow down:
  • Norway has record high population growth
  • Energy prices will increase dramatically in the future, which will make air transport much more expensive
Hence, your "AADT never will reach 5, let alone 10 thousand" argument is in my opinion just empty rethorics.

Furthermore, there is no need to "favour infrastructure over virtually anything else", as you put it, in order to fulfill a decent road network in Norway. Kjello0 is talking about a total investment of 650 billion NOK and an annual cost of about 22 billion NOK for a complete highway makeover. I estimated based on existing cost data a few years ago that a national (mainly Southern Norway) motorway would cost up to 230 billion NOK (see signature). To put these numbers in perspective:Choose the number of your liking, but in a 40 years' perspective the investments of a motorway network are equivalent to pocket money.

Furthermore, I believe the political trends are clear. We just need to push them a little. One major party in the Norwegian parliament has argued for a national motorway network for many years already. The conservative party of Norway is playing with similar ideas. Even some leading politicians of labor are now arguing for a streamlining of the tedious Norwegian planning regime, and calls for a more national control and holistic and long term thinking regarding infrastructure planning. More importantly, however, is that:
  • More energy efficient cars and electrication of the car fleet will make the climate argument against road construction even less relevant in the future
  • The oil production of Norway is in clear decline, and Norway will be more dependent on inland productivity in the future. At some point the realization that expenses for road development is not a cost, but an investment, will sink in.

If we play with the idea that the two parties to the right in the Norwegian political spectrum actually win the next election, which is quite likely, IMO, they will probably pass a bill for a long term development of a motorway network. I do not think it is likely that a labor dominated government later will pull back from this, it will be too politically costly, but could of course slow down development. Probably, the predictability would be best if a national tolling scheme such as the one Kjello proposed would be implemented with support from the labor, but it wouls be a very painful compromize for the rightmost party in the parliament....
My main point is precisely that we are a democracy... That is one of the reasons I think your and KjellO's proposals will remain just hopeful ideas. I base this argument on a fairly comprehensive knowledge of Norwegian political history and what I believe is a reasonable analysis of the current and future political landscape. This leads me to the abovementioned conclusion. I do, however, hope that the political situation will change enough for the more obvious changes to occur. I'm not convinced it will happen, though, as the political trends aren't remotely clearly in favour of a massive increase in road construction or a desperately needed central planning reform. When it comes to the more extreme elements of your proposals (a north-west-coast motorway, for instance), I think my AADT related comments holds water, no matter how rhetorical they may be.

When it comes to the "favour infrastructure over virtually anything else" issue, it's fairly simple: Infrastructure isn't everything for everyone, and a centralised new infrastructure policy is very difficult to get past all political obstacles. And, to repeat myself, all massive political changes in Norway since WWII have been results of consensus. Even when the Labour party enjoyed parliamentary majority, they sought cooperation across the political spectrum, and even in the highly unlikely event of a Progress Party/Conservative majority at the 2013 election (highly unlikely because a) it has never been close to happen at an actual election b) the Progress Party is, as you know, struggling quite a bit at present and c) the centrist parties have strengthened their position over the past few years), it's equally unlikely that the Conservatives would depart from such a strategy. They have far too much to lose.

Finally, the US would never have built such a comprehensive Interstate Highway program it it hadn't been for perceived national defence requirements (they might have seen even more motorways in densely populated areas, though...). These aren't issues in contemporary Norway.

In short, I don't think we'll ever agree on this. Thus, I don't see the point of taking this very much further. That said, I still believe that promoting (in my opinion) unrealistic proposals are counter-productive and will only help the anti-road lobby. I may of course be mistaken, but I haven't seen a single argument here or elsewhere that suggests I should alter my analysis. But only time will tell.
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Old September 24th, 2011, 06:34 PM   #1550
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You are right, we will never agree on this.

My point was that even with the proposal you propose as "extreme", there is certainly no need to prioritize roads above everything else. This perhaps sounds a bit FrPish (populistic), but just have a look at the numbers. I have never supported FrP due to other reasons, but their road promises do in fact only cost a tiny fraction of all their other promises. You would perhaps be surprised, but in particular if you get a bit out of Oslo you will find that (better) roads are indeed one of the most important issues for people around the country.

Most decisions in Norway are not made with all the parties (or people) on the boat, but with the major parties. Neither the NATO and EU membership issues were decided with consensus, nor the more recent retirement reform, child care reform, or climate policy compromize had backing from all the parties. Some of the listed issues had considerably larger magnitude and long term consequences than a reform as Kjello proposed. If it is voted through by the three largest parties in the parliament it does not matter what the other thinks.

Regarding the north-west-coast motorway, the section with the lowest traffic today is the 120 km E39 between Fannrem (about 50 km west of Trondheim) and Bergsøya (close to Kristiandsund). It was for a reason that this road was in the third and last phase in my plan, when more important routes have been constructed and experienced gained.

Having said that, you should not look blindly at the 1000 AADT of the remote parts of this road today. The current E39 is only used for a small fraction of the total traffic between Møre og Romsdal and Trøndelag counties, as the E 39 is still substandard and includes a ferry (or ferries if you proceed to Ålesund / southern Møre). If you evaluate the traffic between the two counties you also need to add the traffic from fv 65 (>=1650 AADT), and perhaps half of rv 70 (>=1500 AADT) and E6 Dovre (2000 AADT). You don't get too far from 5000 in total today. A ferry free motorway connection will at least half the travel time and certainly boost this number even at the opening day, partly at the cost of the climate-wise horrific alternatives of air travel and high speed ferries.
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Old September 24th, 2011, 07:30 PM   #1551
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Most decisions in Norway are not made with all the parties (or people) on the boat, but with the major parties. Neither the NATO and EU membership issues were decided with consensus, nor the more recent retirement reform, child care reform, or climate policy compromize had backing from all the parties. Some of the listed issues had considerably larger magnitude and long term consequences than a reform as Kjello proposed. If it is voted through by the three largest parties in the parliament it does not matter what the other thinks.
This is precisely what Norway's consensus-focused realpolitik is all about. I've never suggested that it's about absolute consensus, merely that you have agreements between the major political players, with the option for the minor players to form an opposition or play along. Generally, it's better for them to get involved and influence the ultimate outcome, but sometimes, being in opposition, can be just as useful for a particular movement at a given time.
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Old September 25th, 2011, 11:59 AM   #1552
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[*]More energy efficient cars and electrication of the car fleet will make the climate argument against road construction even less relevant in the future
The car fleet will never be electrified, the future of the automobile is hydrogen. The Western world has built itself around the motor vehicle, roads will always be important.
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Old September 26th, 2011, 11:08 PM   #1553
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I believe the point is that we, whatever future we have, will emitt less CO2 than we do today. If it's electric cars powered by hydrogen or pure electric cars or tiny horses on a treadmill or whatever does not matter.
The thing that matters is that many roads aren't built because of the environment factor. The CO2-factor. New roads "create" more CO2 because of increased traffic and higher speeds. However, if we don't emitt as much CO2 in the future, why isn't this taken into account?

Another thing that annoys the crap out of me is the "future" part when roads are planned. Yes. They look 20 years ahead of opening time. And then they conclude that no motorway is needed, taking the numbers and standards seriously. True enough.

But. We're not getting fewer around on this planet. So: Why is it so hard to see that the rising curve of traffic volume will eventually, some day, cross that magic mark where motorway is needed? And that every bloody time they calculate, they underestimate the volume? Even so bad that they once hit the 20-year mark already when the road opened?

If the argument is that it is cheaper to build the second carrigeway or fourth lane in the future I would like to see that, but it does not seem to be the case. It does not even seem to bother politicians. They probably have funny houses where they build a new room when the other rooms are full.

I even heard politicians saying that building with over capacity in mind is bragging and showing off...

OK. Rant mode is now OFF. Thank you all.
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Old October 7th, 2011, 04:56 PM   #1554
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19 km of new E6 motorway opens November 4th. The stretch lies just north of Gardermoen airport, and is part of the Gardermoen - Lillehammer-project. Stretch will have two toll booths.

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Old October 7th, 2011, 07:45 PM   #1555
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Toll booths also for foreigners?

E6 Oslo have congestion tax but i have no idea if it's also for the foreigner?
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Old October 7th, 2011, 08:12 PM   #1556
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It is not congestion tax - just regular tolls 24/7 and foreigners from some country are billed, but some not... And there are no booths - but a camera system that you can pay at service station or recieve a bill via mail.
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Old October 8th, 2011, 12:58 AM   #1557
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This:



Turned into this after just 2,5 months:


700 meters bypass of Nestunnelen on E16 built very quickly for 25 million kroner, decission to build it was just taken in may. Nestunnelen is set to reopen with upgrades set for future motorway standard in december 2012.
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Old October 8th, 2011, 01:11 AM   #1558
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Speaking of the E16 and getting stuff done quickly, is there any evidence of the new routing across to Galve on signs yet? I'm sure I read something about it being implemented by the end of summer 2011.
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Old October 13th, 2011, 03:27 PM   #1559
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Old October 13th, 2011, 10:00 PM   #1560
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A pedestrian was killed on one of those sidewalks earlier this year. Motorway-like road + sidewalks are deathtraps!
Can you believe the Dutch government used to subsidize a think tank which main proposal was sidewalks along motorways?
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