India Economy Thread II

[murlee]

-double post-

[murlee]

Originally Posted by srivatsayb

Ya sure, 50 million ppl dont really matter i guess...

Putting words in my mouth, are u? I said Delhi's growth is not that significant compared to growth of bigger states when taking India as a whole.

Take ur state itself.. Bangalore region has seen tremendous growth for the past decade.. But, Karnataka hasn't been such a shining example for growth as a whole, right? Replace Bangalore with Delhi and Karnataka with India.

It is much much easier to see high growths( 10%+) in a completely urban set-up, which is the power centre of the country, which sees billions doled out in the name of CWG and what not and which houses some of the richest people of Indian society compared to a much bigger state where rural population is dominant, literacy is not that high, far more diverse in climate, terrain, people etc etc..

Just try answering this.. Which is the big deal? Karnataka growing at 10% or bangalore alone growing at 10%..

We will see in 2020 as to how much that region contributes to our overall economy vis-a-vis for a point of Argument Gujarat..

Ya ok.. Lets see..

Hope this forum still operates until then

Of course it will.. SSC rocks

[srivatsayb]

Originally Posted by murlee

Putting words in my mouth, are u? I said Delhi's growth is not that significant compared to growth of bigger states when taking India as a whole.

Take ur state itself.. Bangalore region has seen tremendous growth for the past decade.. But, Karnataka hasn't been such a shining example for growth as a whole, right? Replace Bangalore with Delhi and Karnataka with India.

It is much much easier to see high growths( 10%+) in a completely urban set-up, which is the power centre of the country, which sees billions doled out in the name of CWG and what not and which houses some of the richest people of Indian society compared to a much bigger state where rural population is dominant, literacy is not that high, far more diverse in climate, terrain, people etc etc..

Just try answering this.. Which is the big deal? Karnataka growing at 10% or bangalore alone growing at 10%..



Ya ok.. Lets see..



Of course it will.. SSC rocks

we are going on non-linearly into something else! ..I have made my point in many posts before, you have your answers there...

[srivatsayb]

Originally Posted by MeMumbaikar

and on the issue of our BOP


its all related to oil.



Tension in middle east= high oil prices = gold price rise and rise in the value of the USD = weaker rupee = much higher trade deficit and lower FDI = India BOP crisis.


The rupee is falling and the price of oil is now $120. The markets too which we import are not strong enough to sustain the extra levels of exports which are needed. Its a perfect storm. India can sustain high oil prices if the regions we export to the most showed strength.


Gold too is purchased in times of uncertainty. Hence the rise in prices. Indians are still importing about the same levels of gold (maybe a little rise) its the price of gold which is the issue.

And UPA/FM/PetroM are blocking Cairn to increase production from the Rajasthan blocks!!

Even 3-4 billion reduction in imports is huge..

Lets see how much Gold and coal are imported this fiscal..

[murlee]

Originally Posted by srivatsayb

we are going on non-linearly into something else!

How? U said 10%+ growth of Guj is not that big a deal citing Delhi region as a example. I just posted telling why Delhi growing at 10% isn't that big a deal compared to a bigger state like Mah, Guj, TN etc..

Anyways, move on.. Like u said, lets wait till 2020 to see the results..

[MeMumbaikar]

On the issue of Delhi

its a city state. Its comparison needs to be to Mumbai MMR.

On top of which like Murlee said more government spending will always benefit delhi. Not only delhi but its the same for all capitals.

[hobbes100]

How fast a state/country can and should grow is also a function of how low/high their per capital income is relative to others. It would be an big accomplishment for US/Europe to grow at >2% rate, while for a country with such low per capital income like India, anything below 7% should be considered a recession. We can and should be growing at 9-11% - but right policies are needed to realize that growth.

Same logic applies to states. Poor states like Bihar/JH/OR can/should be growing much faster than higher per capita income states like GJ/MH/HR. Needless to say, natural advantages - like mineral wealth, proximity of ports, etc - also play a role.

[MeMumbaikar]

yup look at WB

WB during the time of Mamata will always grow more than the times of The Commies.


the reason being there is huge government investment in WB due to the pound of flesh extracted by Mamata. So government central and local is leading the investment.
The flip-side of that is that if once Mamata loses her power over the central government WB will see a big dip in its output. As things stand though Mamata seems to have 2 more years. After which she may or may not be able to do so. who knows.


Nitish is growing from just a low base than any government funds will basically mean Bihar grows.




You look at Guj, its the fastest growing major state which has not had any ties with the central government during this period. Maybe a BJP controlled central gov will mean Guj at 12%.

[SSCaddict]

Originally Posted by kannan infratech

SSC Addict Bhai,

I work closely with the Govt both at Delhi & State.

If certain things are not implemented / certain moves are not stopped

India will soon get into a credit crisis / debt crisis and the Govt will try to hive off only profit making PSUs and other industries where the dividends are good.

Already they have started the moves but due to the inherent opposition within Babudom, it is being delayed.

We are being siphoned off indirectly.

For eg, many of us may think that Vodafone has been punished. But the Govt has indirectly helped them.

If all the licenses of 2G are cancelled, we think that it is a huge loss to us. But in reality, the companies promoters are going to gain. But the other share holders and poor small investors will pay for it.

Can you believe that Telenor will take that kind of loss without a fight ? But they say so.

They will rob the small investors and buy those shares at a very low value. Then they will increase the tariff and manage to show a profit by book keeping innovations. Again small investors will flock & invest.

But the flight of money out of the country has long back taken place.

Similar stories for Infra projects. Work orders are taken by PPP companies below even the cost of construction but still they show profits to boost the share value. They make money there and the key investors - invariably some FDI / FII takes the cake. (Mauritius route et al) sell and scoot.

We have been made to buy water at Rs. 15+ per litre without even we regretting for the same. They threatened us with hygiene and health and this has been achieved.

Similar ploy will be employed for pharma / vaccines. We are threatened by H1N1 / Bird Flu / Pig Flu what not. Vaccine business is very very lucrative and only a few in the world control that.

Indian Govt has been allowing those companies to test new drugs/ vaccines on Rural Indians without their consents (not even aware of that). Do not be surprised if we are hit by a Surat Plague like incident soon.

In Agri sector, BT seeds/ chem fertilizers have ruined the local seeds granaries / soil wealth. The farmers are now solely dependent on imported seeds & nutrients. Since my father was an Agriculturist for 40-50 years and I grew up among similar families, I can say with conviction that we have lost our earth to these goons.

The future is scary, man.

We have to ACT. NOW.

sir if you read my post again, i said the same thing that this is a "milli bhagat" or combined game of corporate honchos, GOI and FII's. And media supports them fully by spreading negativity when needed and supplying positivity when they(this group) need it.

BUT the sad part is that this is happening all over the world, riches are enjoying and becoming more richer and middle class or small investors are been robbed off, everyone knows that Buffett pays less tax than his secretary and when a bill is brought US politicians reject it.

So sorry to say we cannot do anything about it now. The control has gone in the hands of politicos and riches.

[UDHL]

Originally Posted by OldKool

India should stop Gold Importd right now..sell its a part of its gold reserve to pay off while it should allow 60% FDI in Retail right now.

LOL...no dude. Why stop gold import? Why sell part of its gold reserve? and how did you come up with this 60% figure?

[OldKool]

Originally Posted by UDHL

LOL...no dude. Why stop gold import? Why sell part of its gold reserve? and how did you come up with this 60% figure?

1.Because govt. has to pay for all the gold our aunties buy and that's worth $60 bil compared to $150 bil we spend on crude.

2.Sell part of gold because 10% of our money that is stuck up and lying cold in gold should be used to liquify the market.

3.60% (not 51%) is need to bring in more foreign investment and greater investor confidence.

If only India could cut gold demand by half..we shall save some $600bil in next 8-10 years. Imagine that money being used in building infrastructure and providing health care.

[UDHL]

Originally Posted by murlee

Well.. then its fine.. Sure, Delhi would be seeing very good growth rates.. No doubt..
But, I wouldn't call it 'breakout' as it would have negligible impact on India as a whole when compared to much larger states growing well..

For me, Guj, TN, Kar, Mah etc growing at 10% is much more significant and consider 'breakout' than Delhi growing at 12%

Originally Posted by srivatsayb

You should tell me about "so?"
My point was that Delhi-Haryana will mostly be the fastest growing states in this decade until 2020!! ..I never spoke about area, population etc!!

Originally Posted by murlee

How? U said 10%+ growth of Guj is not that big a deal citing Delhi region as a example. I just posted telling why Delhi growing at 10% isn't that big a deal compared to a bigger state like Mah, Guj, TN etc..
Anyways, move on.. Like u said, lets wait till 2020 to see the results..

1. Srivastsayb was talking about delhi + haryana...and they will definitely have more than negligible impact on India's gdp.
2. We should not be talking about overall gdp figures or its growth rates as u can't compare the two regions based on that. One should look at gdp/capita, growth rate of gdp/capita, expenditure/capita, diposable incomes, cost of living of the regions involved and also their inflation rates. This, I think, will give us a better picture of who stands where. Another interesting thing to look at would be the social welfares enjoyed by the individuals of different states. I think these figures put together will help us understand poverty situation of different places.
3. I think the planning commission should not just increase poverty line but introduce a new concept of livable line or something like that (figure that tells you how much one needs to make every day in order to have a decent living and not just bare survival).

[kalkibhagwan]

cant we overthrow the govt?? or are we too "peaceful" to do that?? By the way, I think UP is the main reason, India's GDP is low, UP being the only state that is big enough, but still fails to contribute much to the economy, so I guess, a special committed body to improve literacy,infra and manufactuirng in UP should be able to lift Bharat's GDP by atleast 2%

[Suncity]

Originally Posted by MeMumbaikar

yup look at WB

WB during the time of Mamata will always grow more than the times of The Commies.


the reason being there is huge government investment in WB due to the pound of flesh extracted by Mamata. So government central and local is leading the investment.
.

Interestingly if one of the charts I have seen in a major newspaper is true then West Bengal had the exact same growth rate under last year of commie rule as the first year of tommie rule. Could be a misprint. After all who can trust the media with numbers nowadays.

Acoording to some reports as per CSO from 1993-1994 to 2003-2004 West Bengal had the highest CAGR amongst major states. [interestingly commie ruled Tripura had second highest CAGR for that decade behind Puducherry]. But no one splashed headline news like nowadays as a major section of band baja media and propaganda prone columnists didn't see its "favorites" in the top. [for example how many here know that Bihar under Nitish or Gujarat under Modi are leading China like growth and how many even in WB know that WB had one of the highest CAGRS in the 1993-2003 decade?]

So what went wrong under the second term of Buddhadeb when he became even more "liberal"? He called up everybody from Tatas to Ambanis. He was the darling of the business barons. His stars crashed after he invited the Tatas. From 2006 onwards an anti industrialization move lead by by Didi and supported by powerful media houses and maoists created an atmosphere of chaos which peaked at 2008 when the Tatas were driven out. When a state is swept with negative sentiment, everything comes down. A section of the media indulged in successful dissemination of half truths and lies to bring down the government. So you had stupid TV anchors reeling off misinterpreted statistics created by a certain "respectable" company. But unlike the Gujarat fiasco where media was caught pants down and roundly condemned, in case of WB there are very few champions of the state (there are many champions of Didi or Dada but not many for the state itself).

However Didi is now reaping the fruits of her sins. Not many big ticket projects have come to West Bengal after she came to power. Most of the projects that she is claiming to take credit for are projects she or her then maoist friends opposed - be it Jindal or be it Nayachar.

Many of the so called central government projects (mainly Railways) are also no where beyond foundation stone laying. In fact when it comes to Central Govt investment Buddha era seems to have seen more concrete investment.

West Bengal definitely needs to get back to the pre 2007 boom times and positive sentiment.

Let us see if Ms Clinton can hammer in some economic sense into Didi. But who knows - Ms Clinton may take back with her wrong economic policies instead. After all Didi is one of the most influential politicians India has seen for some time.

Desperately hoping that Didi dumps her obstinacy, listens to experts and puts West Bengal back on track to fast growth. Projects like Wipro and Infosys are held up just because she doesn't like the term SEZ. Arey baba just rename it as Tagore Economic Zone and be done with it. All Bengalis will support it.

[UDHL]

Originally Posted by OldKool

1.Because govt. has to pay for all the gold our aunties buy and that's worth $60 bil compared to $150 bil we spend on crude.

2.Sell part of gold because 10% of our money that is stuck up and lying cold in gold should be used to liquify the market.

3.60% (not 51%) is need to bring in more foreign investment and greater investor confidence.

If only India could cut gold demand by half..we shall save some $600bil in next 8-10 years. Imagine that money being used in building infrastructure and providing health care.

1. Government never pays for the gold purchased by aunties. Only their husbands pay for that .
Better move would be to further increase tax on gold imports. If you ban gold imports...the price of gold in international market will go down a decent amount and we will end up being losers (as we hold too much gold; and also gold traders & jewelry shop owners will lose a lot)

2. Gold reserves should not be messed around with. A lot of things depend on it. For example, in current economic situation where the big economies like US, UK, Japan, etc have piled up huge amounts of debt. This is causing their currencies to become more & more unstable. Most of our foreign reserves consist of them...and hence not a good idea to sell gold reserves. Another example (fun example but to the point) would be that gold continues to be the only true standard of value in times of war or crisis (gold has always played this role in the past and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future).

3. Then why not 100%?

Yes we need to/have to save and invest on infrastructure in a grand way.

[UDHL]

Originally Posted by kalkibhagwan

cant we overthrow the govt?? or are we too "peaceful" to do that??

LOL

Originally Posted by kalkibhagwan

By the way, I think UP is the main reason, India's GDP is low, UP being the only state that is big enough, but still fails to contribute much to the economy, so I guess, a special committed body to improve literacy,infra and manufactuirng in UP should be able to lift Bharat's GDP by atleast 2%

I agree...UP is definitely pulling us back. I think something should also be done about the NE region as it has tremendous potential but never delivers.

[Suncity]

60% of Rural India lives on less than Rs 35 a day

http://news24online.com/60-of-Rural-...s24_43591.aspx

About 60 per cent of India`s rural population lives on less than Rs 35 a day and nearly as many in cities live on Rs 66 a day, reveals a government survey on income and expenditure.

"In terms of average per capita daily expenditure, it comes out to be about Rs 35 in rural and Rs 66 in urban India. About 60 per cent of the population live with these expenditures or less in rural and urban areas," said Director General of National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) J Dash in his preface to the report.

According to the 66th round of National Sample Survey (NSS) carried out between July 2009 and June 2010, all India average monthly per capita consumer expenditure (MPCE) in rural areas was Rs 1,054 and urban areas Rs 1,984.

The survey also pointed out that 10 per cent of the population at the lowest rung in rural areas lives on Rs 15 a day, while in urban areas the figure is only a shade better at Rs 20 day.

"The poorest 10 per cent of India`s rural population had an average MPCE of Rs 453. The poorest 10 per cent of the urban population had an average MPCE of Rs 599", it said.

The NSSO survey also revealed that average MPCE in rural areas was lowest in Bihar and Chhattisgarh at around Rs 780 followed by Orissa and Jharkhand at Rs 820.

Among other states, Kerala has the highest rural MPCE at 1,835 followed by Punjab and Haryana at Rs 1,649 and Rs 1,510 respectively.

The the highest urban MCPE was in Maharashtra at Rs 2,437 followed by Kerala at Rs 2,413 and Haryana at Rs 2,321. It was lowest in Bihar at Rs 1,238.

[Suncity]

MCPE tables

Rural



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Urban



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Suncity]

Originally Posted by MeMumbaikar

and i would like to stress again

for Orissa Jharkhand and Chattisgragh anything less than 15% when the commodity prices are high or medium (ie not depressed) is a failure.


These states especially Orissa with so much mineral wealth (the most infact) and access to ports is not being run well enough.

Can can forgive Jharkhand and Chattisgragh somewhat considering they are barely 12 years old as states. Institutions etc take time to form in India.

Your wish is partially granted

;-)





Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Suncity]

NSDP at current prices and growth rates



Uploaded with ImageShack.us