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Old May 28th, 2008, 01:53 PM   #3381
The Longford
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Boo hoo!
A developer sees a cut in profit.
My heart ******* bleeds.
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Old May 28th, 2008, 01:58 PM   #3382
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I think V Building in Birmingham will also be on dodgy ground now, I mean, more than 700 apartments in one tower alone! I can't see many takers for a while yet. And Lumiere, 10 whole months before actual construction of the towers are due to commence?!?! Think all 3, Piccadilly, V & Lumiere will be shelved for a while until the credit squeeze & housing market sorts iteself out. Not even the biggest developers will take such a risk, even if people have paid deposits, they can still pull out of any deal at any time.
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Old May 28th, 2008, 02:11 PM   #3383
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Comdot View Post
ouch! £5 million profit on such a big scheme?
The £5m is based on the newly inflated building costs, but with the original number of apartments, so is a worst case (unless costs rise further). That is why they've increased the number of apartments in the scheme, particularly one bedrooms which seem to sell better.

The cost of material has been rising steadily for a couple of years now, so there shouldn't be any real surprises, although if these massive projects were priced up some time ago, they will need to be revised from time to time, and that may be what has caused a recent change with the cost of Lumiere. Piccadilly Tower should presumably be in a similar situation, and although margins are tight, there shouldn't be any reason to panic at the moment. As work is continuing on both tower projects at the moment, that backs up this view.
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Old May 28th, 2008, 02:15 PM   #3384
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob View Post
The £5m is based on the newly inflated building costs, but with the original number of apartments, so is a worst case (unless costs rise further). That is why they've increased the number of apartments in the scheme, particularly one bedrooms which seem to sell better.

The cost of material has been rising steadily for a couple of years now, so there shouldn't be any real surprises, although if these massive projects were priced up some time ago, they will need to revised from time to time, and that may be what has caused a recent change with the cost of Lumiere. Piccadilly Tower should presumably be in a similar situation, and although margins are tight, there shouldn't be any reason to panic at the moment. As work is continuing on both tower projects at the moment, that backs up this view.
The only people who may be panicking, are those who have put a deposit down on a property at a fixed price, only to see the value of their purchase diminish in front of their eyes even before the thing is built. Remember, they may not be moving in for 3 years, & the situation with falling property prices may get even worse ..... I'd be panicking, I'll tell you, & would probably consider cutting my losses & pulling out!
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Old May 28th, 2008, 02:48 PM   #3385
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With property prices falling the above profit calculations will only get worse as time goes on. I presume all flats haven’t been pre-sold? Even if they are, as FLD2 says, people will pull out, calculating that the lost deposit will be less loss than going through with the purchase.

The only way I could be wrong is if suddenly construction costs fall radically or, more importantly, we see a resurgence in the property market.

The first of these is possible in a global recession but regarding the second, I fear we are only at the top of a steep cliff.

It's unfortunate, but no new UK residential towers will be built for a good while.
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Old May 28th, 2008, 03:01 PM   #3386
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Doom-mongering in here thank you:

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showth...6#post21179316

Keep it out of this thread please.
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Old May 28th, 2008, 03:03 PM   #3387
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We need to hope confidence comes back to the property market quickly. My mortgage lender has just notified me of a cut in the lending rate, the FIRST one since this latest string of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England. So, you never know, confidence may return.

Forget construction costs, as has been written above costs have been going up for 2 years now .... you need punters to buy the properties in the first place at a given price, & people need to be pretty confident that they will be at least at the same value, if not higher, when they actually move in, & too many people are not quite sure of that at the moment.
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Old May 28th, 2008, 03:05 PM   #3388
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chogmook View Post
Doom-mongering in here thank you:

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showth...6#post21179316

Keep it out of this thread please.
It's called "Economics" (remember supply & demand at school?) & being realistic...... remember, 99% of people purchasing an apartment are not skyscraper enthusiasts, they are in it to either make a nice home for themselves, make a profit or more often than not, both!
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Old May 28th, 2008, 03:06 PM   #3389
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Well you know where to go now.

We want pics and PROPER news about THIS tower in this thread thank you.
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Old May 28th, 2008, 03:13 PM   #3390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chogmook View Post
Well you know where to go now.

We want pics and PROPER news about THIS tower in this thread thank you.
Ok, posts crossed - good luck in here, looking forward to some actual construction photos, seriously, else it will be like a domino effect across the country if this one is actually CANCELLED & not just delayed!
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Old May 28th, 2008, 03:14 PM   #3391
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Trust me, this won't get cancelled.

Anyhoo, cheers for using right said thread!
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Old May 28th, 2008, 03:15 PM   #3392
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thecityofgold View Post
With property prices falling the above profit calculations will only get worse as time goes on. I presume all flats haven’t been pre-sold? Even if they are, as FLD2 says, people will pull out, calculating that the lost deposit will be less loss than going through with the purchase.

The only way I could be wrong is if suddenly construction costs fall radically or, more importantly, we see a resurgence in the property market.

The first of these is possible in a global recession but regarding the second, I fear we are only at the top of a steep cliff.

It's unfortunate, but no new UK residential towers will be built for a good while.
That's wrong through. Anyone who really thinks about the housing market should know falling prices should not affect builds. The only builds that should be affected are those build em cheap, sell on to an investor. Those are the ones that have caused the apartments to fall in value in the city. The big problem is those profits and those house prices where always too high. The fall in prices should be accepted by the developers and it shouldn't be a shock to anyone. The profits they were making were made on ripping people off and jumping on a very risky bang wagon which could go at any time.

You also have to think with the massive profits did they look at there own company. All businesses can save money in lots of areas for the benefit of profit and image. If they want to make that type of profit now, they need to become more efficient and have the right type of building. Piccadilly Tower can be one of them. Its a big enough project, with a large hotel, in prime location. In Manchester being next to Piccadilly Station is great place to live during the week if you work in Manchester or if you travel to work anywhere over the North West. Its going to have a bigger appeal than Beetham, just being where it is. If you want to advertise it could can just stick up a massive advertising wall and everyone who comes in and out of Piccadilly Station will see it. I can't see them having a problem selling apartments even in our market and who ever gets the hotel is on to a winner. Its location location location and its win win win for everyone.
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Old May 28th, 2008, 03:16 PM   #3393
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AHEM!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chogmook View Post
Doom-mongering in here thank you:

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showth...6#post21179316

Keep it out of this thread please.
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Old May 28th, 2008, 03:50 PM   #3394
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The only builds that should be affected are those build em cheap.....
..... and what about all those people who can't sell their flats in Beetham Tower .... they've all fallen in value, & they can't sell them on, and at £150 million to build it, it certainly wasn't a "cheap" build by any stretch of the imagination!

Sorry Choggers, but you can't always drag people to a thread if they want to bury their collective heads in the sand, & stay here in Zanadu!
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Old May 28th, 2008, 03:56 PM   #3395
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It is rather annoying when there is a thread dedicated to the 'situation', when you wanna check any PROGRESS on the tower, when new posts have been made.

Don't take it personally, I'm just trying to stop many of our tower threads going down the same route of excesssive doom-mongering and hearsay.
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Old May 28th, 2008, 04:00 PM   #3396
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Originally Posted by FLD2 View Post
..... and what about all those people who can't sell their flats in Beetham Tower .... they've all fallen in value, & they can't sell them on, and at £150 million to build it, it certainly wasn't a "cheap" build by any stretch of the imagination!

Sorry Choggers, but you can't always drag people to a thread if they want to bury their collective heads in the sand, & stay here in Zanadu!
Think about what you just said. All those people re-selling. The flats have already been sold by the developer to a private owner so where is the problem? Now the owner wants to sell it on. That's not the developers problem as he already has his money.
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Old May 28th, 2008, 04:10 PM   #3397
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chogmook View Post
It is rather annoying when there is a thread dedicated to the 'situation', when you wanna check any PROGRESS on the tower, when new posts have been made.

Don't take it personally, I'm just trying to stop many of our tower threads going down the same route of excesssive doom-mongering and hearsay.
I know it's annoying, in fact the whole situation is so frustrating ..... imagine the disappointment in Birmingham if their beloved V Building is scrapped again, after the 10 year saga of Arena central.

If Piccadilly goes, so does V (IMHO) ..... it's a debate Choggers .... the only difference here is, Birmingham hasn't been as hasty as Manchester forumers to put it's pride & joy in to a "Construction" thread, & can you imagine the temptation in Birmingham to actually do that to make things seemingly all 'sweetness & light'?! But realism has to prevail, unfortunately. When slipform equipment is being assembled for ther core of Piccadilly, then you can safely say it is "Under Construction"!
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Old May 28th, 2008, 04:14 PM   #3398
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Think about what you just said. All those people re-selling. The flats have already been sold by the developer to a private owner so where is the problem? Now the owner wants to sell it on. That's not the developers problem as he already has his money.
I know .... but the difference is, Beetham is already up, Piccadilly isn't! Those people completed their contracts upon final inspection of the flats they were buying in Beetham, & then handed over the rest of the cash .... Conveyancing?! Don't understand the point you are making? (polite comment )
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Old May 28th, 2008, 04:20 PM   #3399
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Originally Posted by Chogmook View Post
AHEM!



Are you a moderator now Chogmook?
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Old May 28th, 2008, 04:22 PM   #3400
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Originally Posted by FLD2 View Post
I know .... but the difference is, Beetham is already up, Piccadilly isn't! Those people completed their contracts upon final inspection of the flats they were buying in Beetham, & then handed over the rest of the cash .... Conveyancing?! Don't understand the point you are making? (polite comment )
The point I am making is. As a developer and as a business when it comes to selling you should know alot of the investors. Then if you don't sell all in private you can go and advertise them on a wider scale. Big banners, newspapers, local mags etc. If you have one apartment in Beetham. The most likely thing is you'll put in the local estate agent or put it for rent and you won't get any of the attention a large business marketing the same thing on a larger scale will. It will not surprise me if alot of people have already contacted the developer and put there names down.
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