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Old February 15th, 2012, 11:29 PM   #3801
kato2k8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ptscout View Post
its manly controlled by the traffic wardens
In Munich maybe. Over here this isn't a job for the city guys but for state police. It's one of the things they check for in the random spot checks and road blockades, mostly at night. There are also regularly mobile traffic controls targetting specifically Umweltzone sticker offenders here. And we are not one of the four cities considered to be really enforcing the law effectively...

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The point will also be abolished soon.
Ramsauer's "reform" is nothing but decriminalizing Kavaliersdelikte. Pure Klientelpolitik.
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Old February 16th, 2012, 12:23 AM   #3802
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Yes, but the government can make a lot of money with it, even more if someone needs to buy an other car because he lives in an Umweltzone or he needs to go there frequently...
If money is the problem, I'd be willing to pay a fee to the city/state to enter the city center. Well, not € 40!
They'd get money for every access!
In any case, I'll not buy a new motorhome since mine is 18 years old and is still perfectly fine (nothing surprising), and anyway I'd not buy it in Germany since I don't live there, so the German Government would get no money from me buying a new vehicle!

Personally, I feel the Umweltzone as a serious freedom of movement (and market) limit. Some examples of what I can't legally do anymore:
- reaching a berliner campsite 3,8 km from the Umweltzone limit http://g.co/maps/q3y2g
- reaching a berliner campsite 500 m from the Umweltzone limit http://g.co/maps/fjx7e
- reaching a stuttgarter campsite 6,2 km from the Umweltzone limit http://g.co/maps/syhw2

What the heck, I use to drive on the shortest route from the autobahn to the campsite IN ORDER to subsequently use public transport.
Now I cannot choose anymore some of the campsites with the best connections. What about market freedom?

And all these things may happen once every 4-5 years. This is a complete nonsense.
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Old February 22nd, 2012, 11:47 AM   #3803
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Old February 24th, 2012, 12:47 PM   #3804
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dramatic increase of traffic fatalities in 2011

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A total of 3,991 people were killed in road traffic accidents in Germany in 2011. As also reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) based on provisional results, that was an increase of 343 persons or 9.4% on 2010. Hence the number of people killed in 2011 increased even more dramatically than expected. First estimates of December 2011 had expected a 7% increase. The number of people seriously or slightly injured rose by 5.5% to about 391,500 in 2011 on a year earlier.
According to destatis.de, the federal statistical office of Germany.

German version
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Old February 24th, 2012, 01:50 PM   #3805
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A variation of 10% or so from year to year is almost certainly within the variance of a normal probability distribution. In other words, it's non-news.
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Old February 24th, 2012, 02:09 PM   #3806
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I don't think so. 10% out of 20 people is not relevant, out of 4000 is.
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Old February 24th, 2012, 02:25 PM   #3807
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Yep, this is actually quite some news because the fatality rate in most European countries have declined quite a bit over the last 10 years. A stagnation is what you can expect after it bottoms out, but 10% increase is quite significant.

Traffic fatalities will never be down to zero, or even close to it, so this "zero vision" like in Sweden is fancy wording, but very unrealistic.
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Old February 24th, 2012, 03:07 PM   #3808
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Let's wait and see what the 2012 numbers look like. A single data point (year) showing a 10% increase looks like a random blip. There is nothing statistically significant here. One year doesn't make a trend.
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Old February 24th, 2012, 03:14 PM   #3809
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You may be right only if there was some huge accident with very low probability to happen - I don't know, a plane crashing on the autobahn, a truck on fire inside a long tunnel. Otherwise it is significant.
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Old February 24th, 2012, 03:21 PM   #3810
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It's not uncommon for small countries to have percentage fluctuations like these, for instance where 2 or 3 fatal accidents can make a significant difference on the total fatality rate. For instance in the Netherlands and Denmark less than 40 fatalities occur every year on the motorway network, so every single fatality more or less has quite an impact. However, in a large country like Germany, it's statistically quite significant. If it was 2 or 3%, I'd say that's possible within the margins, but nearly 10% is really worrisome in traffic safety terms. It may not indicate a trend, but it's also not insignificant. They attribute it to better weather conditions, so people drive faster and sensitive road users (cyclists, pedestrians) are on the road more than average.
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Old February 26th, 2012, 12:26 AM   #3811
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
It's not uncommon for small countries to have percentage fluctuations like these, for instance where 2 or 3 fatal accidents can make a significant difference on the total fatality rate. For instance in the Netherlands and Denmark less than 40 fatalities occur every year on the motorway network, so every single fatality more or less has quite an impact. However, in a large country like Germany, it's statistically quite significant. If it was 2 or 3%, I'd say that's possible within the margins, but nearly 10% is really worrisome in traffic safety terms. It may not indicate a trend, but it's also not insignificant. They attribute it to better weather conditions, so people drive faster and sensitive road users (cyclists, pedestrians) are on the road more than average.
The statistic of German autobahns is comparable to the safest European motorways. According to the statistics there were 2.2 road user fatalities per billion vehicle kilometers on German autobahns in 2008. Netherland (2.1 in 2009), Denmark (2.5), Austria (4.2), Switzerland (1.2), and France (1.8). Using the same statistic, 4.5 fatalities have occurred in the United States on motorways. So, i would say, autobahns are very safe "Thing".

Last edited by geor; February 28th, 2012 at 06:14 PM.
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Old February 26th, 2012, 03:03 AM   #3812
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Originally Posted by mcarling View Post
A variation of 10% or so from year to year is almost certainly within the variance of a normal probability distribution. In other words, it's non-news.
How can we say that without knowing what is the standard deviation of traffic causalities' count over a time series-based trend ?
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Old February 26th, 2012, 11:38 AM   #3813
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How can we say that without knowing what is the standard deviation of traffic causalities' count over a time series-based trend ?
If we assume a Poissonian distribution for traffic casualties, then there's no need to consider the time series and the standard deviation is easily calculated: sqrt(lambda), which in this case is 63, much less than the observed increase of 400.
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Old February 26th, 2012, 11:41 AM   #3814
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It's the first steep increase in traffic fatalities in 20 years and the earlier increase likely has to do with the reunification.

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Old February 26th, 2012, 11:48 AM   #3815
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It's impressive to see that casualties have reduced five times since the 70s.
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Old February 26th, 2012, 12:19 PM   #3816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by g.spinoza View Post
It's impressive to see that casualties have reduced five times since the 70s.

As for me, it is most impressive data of increasing casualties since 1974, after introduction of recommended 130km/h speed limit. One would think that the speed is proportional with safe on A.bahn.
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Old February 26th, 2012, 06:16 PM   #3817
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Who really cares about a recommended maximum speed? Even if it has some legal implications, it's still not a real binding limit. No surprise it had no significant influence on accident numbers.
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Old February 26th, 2012, 06:31 PM   #3818
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Who really cares about a recommended maximum speed?
Many people. And, oh, the fact that if you have an accident while driving above the recommended maximum speed limit, you are automatically considered co-responsible.
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Old February 26th, 2012, 07:14 PM   #3819
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How can we say that without knowing what is the standard deviation of traffic causalities' count over a time series-based trend?
Because we know that the standard deviation for road fatalities must be at least that of a Poisson Distribution.
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Old February 27th, 2012, 02:00 PM   #3820
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Hi, I need some help. I'm going from Wroclaw to Brussels, I plan to go the route A4, A14, A38, A7, A44. Which route should I choose from Dortmund to Brussels to avoid traffic jams on a Friday afternoon?
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