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Old November 24th, 2010, 08:11 PM   #3961
NCT
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Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post

How? Transrapid extension, something else or both?
There are plans to connet the two airports with Maglev, though there is a bit of a political battle going on behind the scenes so no-one knows exactly what's going to happen. Space is safeguarded in Hongqiao Hub for a Maglev Station.

That said, there are a huge number of science, industrial and logistics parks dotted across Pudong, generating a lot of intercity travel demand, e.g. meeting with supplier/client head office etc.
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Old November 24th, 2010, 08:20 PM   #3962
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Quite right, but it is an argument against mass withdrawal of services from Shanghai Station isn't it?

You are also quite correct that whatever location you choose to build a station, there will be people who find it inconvenient. You can however maximise convenience for the maximum number of people. The shorter average distance you have travel to reach the station, the more option people can choose (buses, cycling, walking etc), the better on the whole. And you have to plan for extreme cases too - and parkway stations produce much more severe extreme cases than central stations.

The Pudong - Hongqiao case isn't irrelevant, as taking the Metro is the only viable public transport option. There are a number of industrial parks in Pudong and they generate a lot of demand for HSR travel. It makes much more sense for those to change onto Line 4 at Century Avenue to release capacity on Line 2 going through Lujiazui, People's Square and Jing'an Temple.
I agree with you that mass withdrawal of services from Shanghai Station is wrong, at least from a better service and convenience standpoint. I can understand MOR wants to shift the passenger to Hongqiao and more expensive HSRs, to generate more revenue and to relieve capacity for freight on the existing lines. But they should allow for a transition period. In my opinion, MOR has a lot of room to learn and improve service. But the bigger reality is that China is simply short of railway capacity, compared with Europe and relative to the demand. Therefore the current mad dash to build more railways.

The Hongqiao-Pudong scenario is indeed not a convenient example, and there is a need to build a rapid connection line between Hongqiao and Pudong (Maybe the Mag-Lev line from Pudong should be extended to city center, Hongqiao, Shanghai South Railway Station, and eventually to Hangzhou, but it'll depend on the cost ...). But then again, this is yet another example that Shanghai is still evolving and has not completed its infrastructure construction. In fact, London, with less than half of Shanghai's population, has five airports. Shanghai may need more airports, too, instead of only two airports and try to connect them. Same arguments can be made about train stations.

All that mean that things are still moving, evolving and we will continue to see new infrastructure are needed and built. By the way, Disney Shanghai is under construction now, should shanghai consider to add/expand transportation network around it!?
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Old November 24th, 2010, 08:30 PM   #3963
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Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
The HSR networks straight out off Hongqiao terminal allow people from remote parts of Jiangnan to travel straight to Hongqiao airport quickly and conveniently. Beats any airport express.

How? Transrapid extension, something else or both?
The plan was for the Maglev to go from Pudong to Hongqiao. It makes sense, but then was scrapped for a variety of reasons. You could speculate that it was about high cost, the falling out of its political proponents, some nasty NIMBYism, whatever. The route from Pudong to Hongqiao would have also gone through central Shanghai. Supposedly a revised plan is being worked out.

Having two airports in one metropolitan area is usually a pain. But there are synergetic effects if said airports are joined by a high speed rail line. The situation between Pudong and Hongqiao is not so different than the relationship between the Shenzhen and Hong Kong airports. There, a plan exists for a connection between the two, allowing for the smooth connection between mostly domestic SZX and HKG.

I fly regularly through Chicago. I often have to transfer between Midway and O'Hare. I either take a shuttle on surface streets, or I can switch between the Orange and Blue lines with a loop through downtown. Either way it is a pain. There have been talks about putting commuter rail between the two airports, but unfortunately they've been shot down for a variety of reasons. On a tangent, I have often been stranded in Chicago because of bad weather and its resulting missed connections. It's really a nice place to waste some time.

Megan McArdle and her ilk are funded by some libertarian oil billionaires. Thus I've come across quite a few of similarly themed articles in the media over here in the US. Ask yourself, does it make sense for public transit projects in another country to receive so much (often negative) attention? All this invective about throwing away money and empty trains, but they do not mention that the various train lines are halfway finished and do not yet benefit from induced demand. I'm sure there's always some nugget of truth. Yet at the same time, would you want the alternative of continuing reliance solely on the car and short haul flights?
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Old November 24th, 2010, 08:38 PM   #3964
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... Sadly a lot of 'critics' have been drinking the kool aid in the media. I can't get past the Financial Times' critique.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2a109764-e...#axzz16E5GQZIc

with these two nuggets of wisdom:

Quote:
a lack of integration between transport services across the country, leaving highways, subways, train stations and airports not properly connected...

Critics point out that bullet train services, such as the 1,000km Wuhan to Guangzhou connection that opened this year, are operating at less than half their full capacity and will never make enough money to repay the large bank loans used to build them
Why would a newspaper that is ostensibly in the business of reporting news and selling advertising to investment banks and luxury goods makers care about railroads elsewhere?
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Old November 24th, 2010, 09:12 PM   #3965
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Originally Posted by highway35 View Post
I agree with you that mass withdrawal of services from Shanghai Station is wrong, at least from a better service and convenience standpoint. I can understand MOR wants to shift the passenger to Hongqiao and more expensive HSRs, to generate more revenue and to relieve capacity for freight on the existing lines. But they should allow for a transition period. In my opinion, MOR has a lot of room to learn and improve service. But the bigger reality is that China is simply short of railway capacity, compared with Europe and relative to the demand. Therefore the current mad dash to build more railways.
Blimey, glad I wasn't just talking to myself then.
And I agree with your last point too. I never questioned the need to build, for example, the Shanghai - Nanjing and Shanghai - Beijing lines. My points were about how those excellent pieces of infrastructure could be better designed or utilised to get the maximum benefit out of them.

Quote:
The Hongqiao-Pudong scenario is indeed not a convenient example, and there is a need to build a rapid connection line between Hongqiao and Pudong (Maybe the Mag-Lev line from Pudong should be extended to city center, Hongqiao, Shanghai South Railway Station, and eventually to Hangzhou, but it'll depend on the cost ...).
The original plan was to extend the Maglev to Hongqiao, through Shanghai South Station. Before the political change there was going to be a stop in the Expo site too. Sadly politics got in the way of that.

Quote:
But then again, this is yet another example that Shanghai is still evolving and has not completed its infrastructure construction. In fact, London, with less than half of Shanghai's population, has five airports. Shanghai may need more airports, too, instead of only two airports and try to connect them. Same arguments can be made about train stations.

All that mean that things are still moving, evolving and we will continue to see new infrastructure are needed and built. By the way, Disney Shanghai is under construction now, should shanghai consider to add/expand transportation network around it!?
Shanghai is evolving, but it can't just evolve willy nilly. You need to capitalise what you have and build on/around it, which makes infinitely more sense than dumping the old and starting the new from scratch. Shanghai Station is a fantastic piece of legacy infrastructure, so it needs to have its potential unlocked rather than shoved to the wayside. Infrastructure and businesses developments have all got to be coornidated, because they directly rely on each other. You can't have business here and railway station there with a thin thread of a metro line connecting the two places, which was my point all along.
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Old November 24th, 2010, 09:38 PM   #3966
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Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
Impractical.

Some have not done much of it. Such as Hong Kong or Singapore.
Dont know too much about Hong Kong, but Singapore did do much of it. Many of new towns, commercial districts, CBD didn't exist before Singapore economy took off in 70s,80s. Even though Singapore is small island country and cannot expand like crazy as some cities of China, Singapore land area has grown from 580 km2 to more 700 km2 and will continue to grow another 100km2 by 2030
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Old November 24th, 2010, 09:55 PM   #3967
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Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack
Impractical.

Some have not done much of it. Such as Hong Kong or Singapore.
Hong Kong did it as well. The new towns were formed as dormitory towns with factories. Places like Tsuen Wan and Kwun Tong were intended to house the blue collar industries and their related housing.

Later on as the city grew in population, the new towns spread further into the previously secluded New Territories. These towns were intended to be self-sustaining like their British cousins. Unfortunately people still commuted between the new towns and the existing urban area. Now as a mature city, Hong Kong has connections between the old urban area and the new towns further out. The many commercial areas in the New Territories haven't detracted from the appeal of the old city. But then there will always be someone who has to find another argument...
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Old November 24th, 2010, 10:09 PM   #3968
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Seeing as we are back on the subject of suburbanisation again, I might as well clarify my earlier comment that got particlez worked up so much. I wasn't criticising Chinese cities for expanding their footprint, but pointing out that at this late stage of urbanisation, land use is becoming more specialised, with the core-periphery relationship increasingly apparent. This was to reinforce the point that while cities grow, they don't necessarily shift.

Some trivial bit of statistics.

The UK, with a population of about 60 million, and an urbanisation rate of 90%, has but a mere third of its population in the 10 largest urban areas by population.

Southern Jiangsu + Shanghai (Shanghai and all 5 prefecture level cities the Shanghai - Nanjing line passes through) has a population of 43 million, and approximately 40% of that live in the cities proper (i.e. discounting rural and disjointed town and county-level city population), which happen to be the 6 most populated urban areas of the region. The case for significant further growth of these big cities isn't actually at all that big.

Last edited by NCT; November 24th, 2010 at 10:18 PM.
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Old November 24th, 2010, 10:43 PM   #3969
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but pointing out that at this late stage of urbanisation, land use is becoming more specialised, with the core-periphery relationship increasingly apparent.
Late stage of urbanization. Someone needs to head back to school.

Can you make a reference to Shanghai without interjecting your own idealized Nottingham as an example to follow?
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Old November 24th, 2010, 10:49 PM   #3970
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Southern Jiangsu + Shanghai (Shanghai and all 5 prefecture level cities the Shanghai - Nanjing line passes through) has a population of 43 million, and approximately 40% of that live in the cities proper (i.e. discounting rural and disjointed town and county-level city population), which happen to be the 6 most populated urban areas of the region. The case for significant further growth of these big cities isn't actually at all that big.
The biggest urban centre in Japan, Tokyo+3 Prefectures, has administrative boundaries covering 13 500 square km (including sparsely settled mountains and remote islands) and with 35 million inhabitants. China has ten times the population of Japan. While China is not going to be as centralized as Japan, I expect that China would have at least three urban centres each significantly bigger than Tokyo.

(BTW, what do you think is the Number 4 city of China?)
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Old November 24th, 2010, 11:01 PM   #3971
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Seeing as we are back on the subject of suburbanisation again, I might as well clarify my earlier comment that got particlez worked up so much. I wasn't criticising Chinese cities for expanding their footprint, but pointing out that at this late stage of urbanisation, land use is becoming more specialised, with the core-periphery relationship increasingly apparent. This was to reinforce the point that while cities grow, they don't necessarily shift.

Some trivial bit of statistics.

The UK, with a population of about 60 million, and an urbanisation rate of 90%, has but a mere third of its population in the 10 largest urban areas by population.

Southern Jiangsu + Shanghai (Shanghai and all 5 prefecture level cities the Shanghai - Nanjing line passes through) has a population of 43 million, and approximately 40% of that live in the cities proper (i.e. discounting rural and disjointed town and county-level city population), which happen to be the 6 most populated urban areas of the region. The case for significant further growth of these big cities isn't actually at all that big.
Dear Lord, why do you play fast and loose with statistics? Britain is hardly the poster boy for decentralized development. London was the example of a primate city. The London agglomeration's urban area and population extend well beyond the boundaries of Greater London. The London agglomeration has places like Essex and Surrey. Yet they weren't part of your calculations for Greater London. Wouldn't the London agglomeration itself account for close to a quarter of the UK's total population?

Then Chinese cities conversely include many rural inhabitants within city boundaries. Since China is still in the midst or urbanization and many farmers will move off their land...
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Old November 24th, 2010, 11:12 PM   #3972
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Dear Lord, why do you play fast and loose with statistics? Britain is hardly the poster boy for decentralized development. London was the example of a primate city. The London agglomeration's urban area and population extend well beyond the boundaries of Greater London. The London agglomeration has places like Essex and Surrey. Yet they weren't part of your calculations for Greater London. Wouldn't the London agglomeration itself account for close to a quarter of the UK's total population?

Then Chinese cities conversely include many rural inhabitants within city boundaries. Since China is still in the midst or urbanization and many farmers will move off their land...
The Great London Urban Area includes areas like Croydon, Romford and Watford, but excludes the likes of Brentford, Luton and Slough that are phycially detached from the core conurbation.

The 43 million refers to the entire population of southern Jiangsu, i.e. those living within the administrative boundary of Nanjing, Zhenjiang, Changzhou, Wuxi, Suzhou and Shanghai. The 40% excludes all the rural population, as well as the disjoint towns like Jiading and Qingpu, and county-level cities. What's fast and loose about those statistics?

And Shanghai isn't primate enough?
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Old November 24th, 2010, 11:23 PM   #3973
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(BTW, what do you think is the Number 4 city of China?)
Hands down, chong qing
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Old November 24th, 2010, 11:34 PM   #3974
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Hands down, chong qing
Sure, Chongqing is the most populous city in the world - as well as the biggest city. But how much of the city is actually densely settled?
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Old November 24th, 2010, 11:38 PM   #3975
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The old core is growing, as you say, vertically and horizontally, i.e. its spreading outwards. The bund is growing both ways as Shiliupu and North Bund are being developed; the whole section between Middle Huaihai Road and Xintiandi is completely mixed use and highly business orientated (HK Plaza, PwC offices etc); the Nanjing Road axis is fattening and the Jing'an Temple area is balooning (Huamin Tower, Wheelock Square and Gerry Centre Phase Two). Detached from the old core you have Lujiazui and the Century Avenue axis stretching all the way to the Science Museum, which are all growing, and most ironically the area round Shanghai Station is undergoing a massive amount of transformation. Yes the city is growing, but very much in a concentric mannor - there is no shift! Businesses are moving IN, not out! As you can see a lot of the development are simply on the wrong side of Hongqiao, and Shanghai Station is in a perfect location to serve all of these business districts. There is absolutely no sense whatsoever in removing trains from Shanghai Station.

It's not so much I want everything to be in the centre, but rather most activities are happening in the centre. People don't always realise how much the centre is being transformed because there is no hype around such developments - they happen organically. Only politicians and certain developers with vested interests want meddle with natural development patterns and make a song and dance about a shift from old to new, because they can then be seen doing something and make a fast buck from developing greenfield sites and leave the problems of vacancy and waste to the society at large. Cities grow in this concentric way for most obvious reasons - economies of scale - businesses and services feed on each other and take advantage of the invisible networks built up through decades and centuries, and a concentric pattern is the best pattern for public transport provision because of its simplicity. Those who believe it's easier to all uproot and settle into a new place are like those hardcore old Keynesian economists who think it's cheaper to alter production than reprint price tags.

NCT, not sure whether you are aware of big hongjiao project (or big rainbow) project), shanghai government is trying to build another city center pretty much like pudong liujiazhu, if it is complete, the gravity center of the city will be changed for sure. This make building a mega transportation hub like hong qiao perfect sense.
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Old November 24th, 2010, 11:45 PM   #3976
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...

You used the Greater London area which cuts out the commuter belt. Check the stats for places like the London commuter belt. Let's see, coming close to 14 million? That's not even counting the other metropolitan cities of the UK. Bottom line is, you used the wrong set of statistics. Thus you were 'fast and loose'.

I could have used similar statistical cherry picking to point out California as decentralized. After all, only Los Angeles and San Diego have populations over one million, and there are many smaller cities. Yet for the sake of its inhabitants, there are only four large metropolitan areas in the state.

40% of 43 million people sure is a lot of people, but that still entails 60% outside of the main urban areas. Unless China stops development or does a Khmer Rouge ands sends people back to the countryside, you're still going to have more migrants to the cities. Then you're also ignoring many other millions in the hinterland, who may be lured by the appeal of the metropolis. Countless rural residents of the South and Midwest moved to New York and Los Angeles. Why would Shanghai not hold a similar appeal to people far away in Gansu or Hubei?

I don't see why you're consciously applying a double standard. We all know the UK and other post industrial nations have highly concentrated populations and high rates of urbanization. Why would you get your undies in a bunch over this?
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Old November 24th, 2010, 11:53 PM   #3977
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NCT, not sure whether you are aware of big hongjiao project (or big rainbow) project), shanghai government is trying to build another city center pretty much like pudong liujiazhu, if it is complete, the gravity center of the city will be changed for sure. This make building a mega transportation hub like hong qiao perfect sense.
I am well aware of that and I think it's political hype. The site is totally unsuitable for a CBD because it doesn't have a surrounding pool dense residential areas, and if the area does become densely populated then you have a major airport completely surrounded by settlements. It takes time for culture and business networks to develop, and when you already have a highly developed central Shanghai, businesses are not going to suddenly give up their city centre offices to somewhere lonely under flight-paths. Even if in 20 years time Big Hongqiao matches the size of today's Lujiazui, Lujiazui will have expanded, Huangpu, North Bund, Jing'an Temple, Buyecheng, Xintiandi will all grown to become much more mature, so Big Hongqiao will still be but a little satellite outside Shanghai Core, and fail miserably to fundamentally shift the centre of gravity.

An industrial and logistical centre with a low-profile station would have made perfect sense for this so called Greater Hongqiao, and I won't be surprised if this is what it turns out to be, though probably under some ostentatious exterior.
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Old November 24th, 2010, 11:53 PM   #3978
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Sure, Chongqing is the most populous city in the world - as well as the biggest city. But how much of the city is actually densely settled?
If we talk about urban area which is considered as chongqing city traditionally, it is not that big, but it is very densely settled to me (i was there last year). or just take look at cityscape of it.
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Old November 25th, 2010, 12:00 AM   #3979
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I am well aware of that and I think it's political hype.
hey, when you are saying this, don't forget both pudong,shenzhen used to be such "political hype" that were circles on map drawn by political leaders
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Old November 25th, 2010, 12:08 AM   #3980
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totally agree. People have to remember that this is China that we're talking about, miracles can happen!
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