The Chicago-Rockford-Madison-Milwaukee Megapolitan Watch Thread

[globill]

Sort of an ungainly title I know. Anyhow, as the issue of regional integration seems to be growing in this quadrangle, I was thinking a thread dedicated to related issues might be interesting. I think by 2020, both the residents of this region and increasingly, the rest of the country will begin to see this area as an interconnected mega-region.

[globill]

First a little demographic overview

Southeastern Wisconsin (Dane, Jefferson, Waukesha, Washington, Ozaukee, Milwaukee, Racine, Kenosha, Walworth and Rock counties)

2000 population- 2585762
2006 population- 2672089

Northeastern Illinois (Winnebago, Boone, Mchenry, Lake, DeKalb, Kane, DuPage,Cook,Kendall, Will)

2000 Population- 8,555,437
2006 population- 8,945,275

Northwest Indiana (Lake,Porter, LaPorte)

2000- 740,775
2006- 762,786

Total

2000 11,881,974
2006 12,389,150

[globill]

And the growth Rates for the respective counties from 200-2006


Connecting or Edge Counties
Core Counties

Kendall 61.7%
Will 33.0%
Boone 25.9%
Kane 22.2%
McHenry 20.1%
DeKalb 12.6%
Lake (Illinois) 10.6%
Walworth 9.8%
Porter 9.1%
Dane 8.7%
Washington 8.6%
Kenosha 8.3%
Winnebago 6.2%
Jefferson 5.6%
Waukesha 5.6%
Ozaukee 4.9%
Rock 4.5%
Racine 3.8%
DuPage 3.1%
Lake (Indiana) 2.0%
LaPorte 0.3%
Cook -1.6%
Milwaukee -2.7%

[brewcityfan]

Isn't Lake County a core county for Illinois?? That represents the majority of wealthy northern Chicago suburbs (which come to Milwaukee every weekend )

[globill]

Waukesha and Lake in Illinois are kind of a mix between core and connecting counties. Remember, the southern edge of Lake County is already 25 miles north of the Loop. So the southern part of the county is definitely part of the core metropolitan area, but the booming northern/western parts are more exurban in nature.

[hudkina]

This will never happen, at least not for many, many decades. And with the way energy costs keep rising, it makes it even less likely.

The commuter interchange between the Rockford MSA and the Chicago MSA was only about 10% in 2000. If Rockford is going to join Chicago's CSA that number has to be at least 15%. As Boone County and DeKalb County continue to grow, that number may grow, but it probably won't be before 2010. Though of the three metros, the Rockford MSA is the only one that has even a remote chance of doing it by 2010. If it hasn't done it by 2010, it will probably do it before 2020.

As far as Madison and Milwaukee are concerned, they might eventually combine into a CSA, but it will be separate from Chicago.

BTW, even if Madison had a high connection with Milwaukee and Milwaukee had a high connection with Chicago that doesn't mean that Madison will ever be in a CSA with Chicago.

For example, in Michigan the Jackson MSA has a commuter interchange above 15% with the Ann Arbor MSA, however the Ann Arbor MSA is already in a CSA with Detroit, therefore Jackson has nothing to do with Ann Arbor as far as metropolitan areas are concerned. However, if Ann Arbor's UA merges with Detroit's UA to effectively become one single MSA, then the Jackson MSA would join with the Detroit-Ann Arbor MSA in a larger CSA.

If Milwaukee and Chicago merged into one MSA then the Madison MSA could be in a CSA with the Chicago-Milwaukee MSA. However, that will probably never happen.

So even at the farthest stretch, the Milwaukee MSA, the Rockford MSA, and the Chicago MSA could all be in a single CSA. The Madison MSA would still be on its own.

[globill]

Originally Posted by hudkina

This will never happen, at least not for many, many decades. And with the way energy costs keep rising, it makes it even less likely.

The commuter interchange between the Rockford MSA and the Chicago MSA was only about 10% in 2000. If Rockford is going to join Chicago's CSA that number has to be at least 15%. As Boone County and DeKalb County continue to grow, that number may grow, but it probably won't be before 2010. Though of the three metros, the Rockford MSA is the only one that has even a remote chance of doing it by 2010. If it hasn't done it by 2010, it will probably do it before 2020.

As far as Madison and Milwaukee are concerned, they might eventually combine into a CSA, but it will be separate from Chicago.

BTW, even if Madison had a high connection with Milwaukee and Milwaukee had a high connection with Chicago that doesn't mean that Madison will ever be in a CSA with Chicago.

For example, in Michigan the Jackson MSA has a commuter interchange above 15% with the Ann Arbor MSA, however the Ann Arbor MSA is already in a CSA with Detroit, therefore Jackson has nothing to do with Ann Arbor as far as metropolitan areas are concerned. However, if Ann Arbor's UA merges with Detroit's UA to effectively become one single MSA, then the Jackson MSA would join with the Detroit-Ann Arbor MSA in a larger CSA.

If Milwaukee and Chicago merged into one MSA then the Madison MSA could be in a CSA with the Chicago-Milwaukee MSA. However, that will probably never happen.

So even at the farthest stretch, the Milwaukee MSA, the Rockford MSA, and the Chicago MSA could all be in a single CSA. The Madison MSA would still be on its own.

Hud-

Thanks for your opinion. The one thing you are missing is the role of the Janesville-Beloit area, which has more or less merged with Rockford and is beginning to do so with Madison.

The unique thing about Madison is the profound effect geography plays on growth patterns.

Because of the angle of the isthmus, growth has been directed to the NE/SW, away from both Milwaukee and Rock County/Rockford. However, eventually, the metro will begin to "balance out" and the areas closer to the interstates will begin to develop more rapidly.

Every town south and east of Madison is growing at above normal rates for the Midwest.

[globill]

Some interesting maps that I think relate to this coming merge...

Now some of you may ask, what is the importance of accent??....well I think it is 2-fold. First, it describes current human interconnectedness, and secondly, it can predict where people within the region may move to in the future.

[globill]

Without the "Quadrangle" there is absolutely no reason why Rockford would have a top 20 Cargo Airport......


Published: July 19, 2007

Business: Transportation
Rockford airport climbs busiest lists

By Thomas V. Bona
ROCKFORD REGISTER STAR
Click here for more information about Thomas V. Bona

ROCKFORD — Chicago/Rockford International Airport is on the verge of being one of the country’s top 20 cargo airports.

According to preliminary numbers released Tuesday by the Federal Aviation Administration, Rockford ended 2006 as at least the 21st largest cargo airport in the country, up from 25th in 2005. When the final numbers come out this fall, the airport could be as high as 20th.

http://www.rrstar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/...SS12/107190052




and Chicagoans are seeing the green....

RFD Expands Cargo with $10 M Project
By Marissa Alter
13 News

RFD looks to grab a bigger piece of the cargo market with a $10 million project. A Chicago based developer will try to woo new cargo companies to the Rockford airport.

Chicago-based Tandem plans to build operations buildings on 33 acres of airside land just west of the UPS hub. The deal's been in the works for a year. That's when the airport authority's board decided it wanted to build a spec building with access to the airport's runways and taxiways.

RFD administrators could've taken a financial risk and built it themselves. Instead they'll lease the land to Tandem, which will invest more than $7 million in development and construction. Bob O'Brien says, "We are currently the 25th largest air cargo airport in the U.S. Next door to Chicago, 8th. Milwaukee, 48th. We play in the big leagues."

And with the stroke of a pen, RFD hits a grand slam. The deal breaks down the 33 acres into 5 land parcels. Phase one calls for a 70,000 square foot spec building with construction starting as early late fall. Future buildings will follow. Explaining the blueprint, O'Brien tells us, "This area blows up into this conceptual drawing. You can see where they come off the existing taxiway on a ramp that feeds each one these building with this building being 230,000 sq feet."

Paul Ahern with Tandem Development Group says they plan start courting companies next week. "It's an exciting opportunity for the mid-west region to have an airside industrial building. You can't get them at other airports they are much more expensive. It's a great economic and operational efficiency for those air freight companies."

Ahern adds other benefits include Rockford's infrastructure. Plus it's no where near as crowded as O'Hare. "I think we've set a pattern here at the airport that has given the courage back to the community in a way that we start to believe in ourselves. We can move forward because we're willing to think outside the box."

Phase one will take a year to complete but O'Brien says the whole project will run 5 to 10 years.

[brewcityfan]

Smart move by the Wisconsin State Fair, and shows us all that northeastern Illinois definitely has some cheese in their blood.

Aug. 9 is Illinois Day Trippin' Day when anyone showing an Illinois driver's license can buy one adult admission and get a second one free. Parking: $9. 800-884-3247; www.wistatefair .com

[edsg25]

Originally Posted by brewcityfan

Isn't Lake County a core county for Illinois?? That represents the majority of wealthy northern Chicago suburbs (which come to Milwaukee every weekend )

Brew, the North Shore suburbs (and the inland ones related to them) are also part of Cook County. I'd say there is probably an even split between the two.

[edsg25]

I mean no insult on this one and hope it isn't taken in an insulting way, but is Rockford really capable of putting itself in a Chicago/Milwaukee/Madison category? Nothing against Rockford, but there is nothing that would make me see how it would be included with the other three other than the Madison-Chicago edge of the triangle goes through it. Rockford at this point of its development is hardly a major player.

[globill]

Edsg,

The Rockford Metro is almost as large as Madison by some definitions. It certainly isn't as glamorous or trendy as Madison but it has economic strengths in some very different areas. Tiny Beloit is home to 3 thriving billion dollar companies.

Also, there is a pretty fast growing bank in Rockford called AMCORE, which already sees the extended area as its market..

"
From 2002 through 2006, AMCORE concentrated on adding branches in high-growth markets in Milwaukee and Madison in Wisconsin and Chicago and the surrounding suburbs. This year, Edge told analysts AMCORE is going to concentrate on improving the publicly traded company’s profitability. AMCORE is the largest publicly traded company based in Winnebago County."

http://www.rrstar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/...059/-1/RSS0101

[hudkina]

By 2010, let's assume that Racine County becomes an outlying county of the Milwaukee MSA. (It's very likely to happen) If that happened, then the Milwaukee MSA and the Chicago MSA would finally border each other.

However, even when including Racine County, the Milwaukee MSA had a commuter interchange rate of only 3.1% with the Chicago MSA in 2000. That number has to be at least 15% to even be considered for a CSA. And to raise that number by nearly 12% means that basically, over 100,000 people who didn't already commute between the metros would have to do so. That's not going to happen by 2010, and may never happen at all.

This is what I think the region could possibly look like by 2010:

Milwaukee MSA
Jefferson County (new)
Milwaukee County
Ozaukee County
Racine County (new)
Washington County
Waukesha County

Beaver Dam MSA
Dodge County

Whitewater MSA
Walworth County


Milwaukee CSA
Milwaukee MSA - 1,800,000
Beaver Dam MSA - 92,000
Whitewater MSA - 108,000
Total Population - 2,000,000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Madison MSA
Columbia County
Dane County
Green County (new)
Iowa County

Baraboo MSA
Sauk County

Janesville MSA
Rock County

Madison CSA
Madison MSA - 610,000
Baraboo MSA - 60,000
Janesville MSA - 165,000
Total Population - 835,000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Chicago MSA
Cook County
DeKalb County
DuPage County
Grundy County
Kane County
Kankakee County (new)
Kendall County
Lake County
McHenry County
Will County
Jasper County (IN)
Lake County (IN)
Newton County (IN)
Porter County (IN)
Kenosha County (WI)

Rockford MSA
Boone County
Ogle County (new)
Winnebago County

Michigan City MSA
LaPorte County

Chicago CSA
Chicago MSA - 9,900,000
Rockford MSA - 425,000
Michigan City MSA - 111,000
Total Population: 10,436,000

[hudkina]

Granted, this is a "best case scenario". The numbers are trending this way, however it could take more than one decade to see the dozen or so different metro areas in this region combine into three CSAs.

[globill]

Hud, thanks for the map. I'm not saying these 4 metros have combined...I'm saying they are very much in the process of regionalizing their thinking. In the case of Rockford and Milwaukee, it's more along the lines of hitching their wagaons to the Chicago Juggernaut.

I thought of this thread as a place to document the process, not to decide when and if the census bureau will see the area as one massive blob.

[globill]

And looking at your map Hud, I think the Janesville metro (Rock County) is more oriented towards Rockford than Madison. Along the Rock River/I-90 corridor, development is increasingly contiguous. (Much less so on the stretch from Janesville to Madison)

I wonder when the Tollway will finally add a third lane to the stateline. I believe the third lane ends after Elgin?

[i_am_hydrogen]

Originally Posted by globill

Sort of an ungainly title I know.

I nodded off in the middle of reading it.

[mgk920]

I also find it interesting that the Chicago/Milwaukee/Madison/Rockford square is neatly bounded by two interstates (I-90 and I-94) and in the middle is an 'X' formed by I-43 and the incomplete US 12 freeway/tollway, with the center of that 'X' being at Elkhorn, WI.

For many years now, I haven't been able to help but sense that the US 12 corridor is acting almost like a traffic dam that is about to burst. Just a few more upgrades here and there (ie, the planned Fort Atkinson, WI bypass, the proposed Elkhorn-Whitewater, WI 'corner cut' and IL 53/120 Lake County North Tollway and the off and on studied Richmond, IL bypass among them) and it will be the shortest and fastest route between Chicagoland and points northwest - with both states suddenly having to scramble to 'fast track' 6 and even 8 lane upgrades to the route.

That will be an interesting one to follow over the next decade or two.

Mike

[globill]

Maybe Elkhorn would be a wise investment. The population grew by 24% in just six years.

Is there an actual plan to make Route 12 into an interstate-type highway?