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Old November 18th, 2010, 10:22 AM   #2241
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Quote:
Originally Posted by madad View Post
What chance has Bucharest-Constanta highway to be completed in 2011
November 17, 2010
Technicaly, there are possibilities for the so-called "acceleration works". We've seen them at Bechtel, we could see acceleration works for these 2 sections as well.
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Old November 18th, 2010, 10:57 AM   #2242
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As expected, here we go with last news regarding Transilvania Highway:

Works on Bechtel Highway will be paused
November 16, 2010

In 2011, CNADNR will not reimburse Bechtel for the new works on Transilvania highway. The few money Bechtel will receive from the state will be used for payment of old debts for 2009, when the Government Boc III was replaced with Boc IV created a vacuum, blocking budgetary allocations.

The money required for the portion of works completion on section 3C (Suplacu the Barcau-Bors, 64 km) of highway Transylvania (project financed entirely from Romanian budget) will be missed in 2011 because from here on, the priority will be to allocate different budgets for highways funded by European Union, and because Bechtel's treasury is now empty.

Source
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Old November 18th, 2010, 10:58 AM   #2243
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Clerk View Post
Technicaly, there are possibilities for the so-called "acceleration works". We've seen them at Bechtel, we could see acceleration works for these 2 sections as well.
I hope you are right
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Old November 18th, 2010, 01:48 PM   #2244
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Quote:
Originally Posted by madad View Post
As expected, here we go with last news regarding Transilvania Highway:

Works on Bechtel Highway will be paused
November 16, 2010
So yes, I think the Gov wants to squize Bechtel into running a PPP for TM. We'll see if that's possible.
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Old November 18th, 2010, 01:48 PM   #2245
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Quote:
Originally Posted by madad View Post
I hope you are right
Technicaly, it's always possible.
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Old November 18th, 2010, 02:07 PM   #2246
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Quote:
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Technicaly, it's always possible.
I like that you'r such an optimistic person
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Old November 18th, 2010, 08:54 PM   #2247
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Sibiu-Pitesti is only half-EU funded. And it's very expensive. Over 1 billion EUR cause it goes right through the heart of mountains and needsdozens of tunnels and viaducts. Same as Comarnic-Brasov. They need a PPP there.
I'm sure PPP on that section is another pipe dream...

I can't think of any investor in the right mind, to build 100 km of motorway, with 1 billion EUR (I doubt it will cost only 10 mil a km, so I would expect even 2 billions), and tax only that section. Yes the trafic look like nightmare on Olt Valey, but only because we have no motorway, only an 1x1 road. They would never recover the investment, because the trafic is not that high (It would grow, but I doubt it will reach 50k even in 30 years (now is under 15k) , and with over taxing, no one would choose that road (go on motorway up to Sibiu, then take the motorway again from Pitesti)) With curent traffic values, they won't have enough money even for maintenance of that section

The on;y way they will buld that is by government efort. But you are a hopless dreamer, so who am I to stop you for dreaming
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Old November 18th, 2010, 09:22 PM   #2248
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Quote:
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I'm sure PPP on that section is another pipe dream...

I can't think of any investor in the right mind, to build 100 km of motorway, with 1 billion EUR (I doubt it will cost only 10 mil a km, so I would expect even 2 billions), and tax only that section. Yes the trafic look like nightmare on Olt Valey, but only because we have no motorway, only an 1x1 road. They would never recover the investment, because the trafic is not that high (It would grow, but I doubt it will reach 50k even in 30 years (now is under 15k) , and with over taxing, no one would choose that road (go on motorway up to Sibiu, then take the motorway again from Pitesti)) With curent traffic values, they won't have enough money even for maintenance of that section

The on;y way they will buld that is by government efort. But you are a hopless dreamer, so who am I to stop you for dreaming
The PPP doesn't necessarily mean that the company which builds the motorway will recover its money from taxation. The money comes from the government, on an established yearly rate. For example, on Comarnic-Brasov section the government should have paid 180 mil euro per year, for 26 years, to Vinci company. It's like borrowing a sum of money and then returning back over a long period of time. Money from taxation are just a little part of the profit, because, as you say, it's impossible to recover the money just from the cars that are passing on the motorway.
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Old November 18th, 2010, 09:34 PM   #2249
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The PPP doesn't necessarily mean that the company which builds the motorway will recover its money from taxation. The money comes from the government, on an established yearly rate. For example, on Comarnic-Brasov section the government should have paid 180 mil euro per year, for 26 years, to Vinci company. It's like borrowing a sum of money and then returning back over a long period of time. Money from taxation are just a little part of the profit, because, as you say, it's impossible to recover the money just from the cars that are passing on the motorway.
I hope they will do that (the gorvernment rate to include maintenance too)

Even with 4eur/100km as the government plan to tax (I doubt many people will use our motorways, I personaly won't pay) it would need 250.000.000 cars to recover the investment (if it will cost 1 bln (another doubt I have) and maintenance not included)
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Old November 18th, 2010, 09:55 PM   #2250
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250 million vehicles over 26 years is roughly 26.000 cars per day. Considering trucks usually pay significantly higher tolls, somewhere around 20.000 vehicles per day would be enough to recover the cost.
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Old November 18th, 2010, 10:13 PM   #2251
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Our roads are full of trucks. And our cities also, because we don't have bypass rings in major cities.
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Old November 18th, 2010, 10:15 PM   #2252
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Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post


250 million vehicles over 26 years is roughly 26.000 cars per day. Considering trucks usually pay significantly higher tolls, somewhere around 20.000 vehicles per day would be enough to recover the cost.
Yes, but you also have maintenance and operation costs. Plus the fact that Pitesti-Sibiu moorway won't cost just 1 billion euros, and probably double. I don't think it can work without a government yearly rate.
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Old November 18th, 2010, 10:20 PM   #2253
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€ 4 for that section is a very reasonable toll price by the way, only € 0.04 per kilometer. In France you'll often pay € 0.10 - € 0.15 per km (sometimes even higher). The time saving potential for this motorway is pretty high, not just a few minutes. I think people will pay the tolls eventually, especially with the ever-increasing incomes in Romania.
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Old November 18th, 2010, 10:35 PM   #2254
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
€ 4 for that section is a very reasonable toll price by the way, only € 0.04 per kilometer. In France you'll often pay € 0.10 - € 0.15 per km (sometimes even higher). The time saving potential for this motorway is pretty high, not just a few minutes. I think people will pay the tolls eventually, especially with the ever-increasing incomes in Romania.
Yes, probably on Sibiu-Pitesti people will pay toll as the distance on the motorway is also shorter with about 30kms than the national road. However, many will probably use the national road between Deva and Arad as the distance is shorter on the national road, and the road won't be so congested because the trucks and some cars will use the motorway. Still, for the income in Romania, 4euros/100km is a little bit too much. 2.5 will be a reasonable price in my opinion.
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Old November 18th, 2010, 10:42 PM   #2255
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
€ 4 for that section is a very reasonable toll price by the way, only € 0.04 per kilometer. In France you'll often pay € 0.10 - € 0.15 per km (sometimes even higher). The time saving potential for this motorway is pretty high, not just a few minutes. I think people will pay the tolls eventually, especially with the ever-increasing incomes in Romania.
Is very reasonable when you earn 3000 euro a month, when u earn 300... is another story. Not all people work in Bucharest.

20.000 per day is very much (optimistic). As far as I know, 40.000/day we have only on A2 (sun motorway) and that is in weekend's in the summer. The all year traffic is very low. (as I remember M1 in Hungary have 20k / day (all year round))

With those prices, I would be surpeised if it would reach 10.000/day

Quote:
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Still, for the income in Romania, 4euros/100km is a little bit too much. 2.5 will be a reasonable price in my opinion.
And with 2.5 they would need 40.000 cars a day... if it will cost 1 bln.

10 mil / km in that area... I have my doubts... so with 2 bln, the trafic sould reach the insane 80.000 car/day (or 50.000 with 4 euro)
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Last edited by luci203; November 18th, 2010 at 10:50 PM.
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Old November 18th, 2010, 10:47 PM   #2256
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I don't expect this section will be used by people on a daily basis, but more for social-recreational drives, business, etc. If you have to pay € 4 * 2 on a daily basis it's a bit steep, but it's not a steep toll if you only drive a road like that for a short section, or a few times per year in its entirety between Sibiu and Pitesti.
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Old November 18th, 2010, 11:15 PM   #2257
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Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
I don't expect this section will be used by people on a daily basis, but more for social-recreational drives, business, etc. If you have to pay € 4 * 2 on a daily basis it's a bit steep, but it's not a steep toll if you only drive a road like that for a short section, or a few times per year in its entirety between Sibiu and Pitesti.
Hense the 10.000 cars a day values...

With no toll, maybe it would reach 15-20k/day - but with 4euro... I expect 5-10k...

If half of the traffic would go on the motorway, the remaining left on the national road would make it a decent traffic, that's is why I would never pay the extra 4 euro for 100 km
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Old November 18th, 2010, 11:41 PM   #2258
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I hope they will do that (the gorvernment rate to include maintenance too)
You don't have to hope! That's how it's done as a rule! I mean, the Gov will guarantee the revenue for the investor, irrespective of the traffic!

That's how it was supposed to be for Comarnic-Brasov, that's how it is as a rule for PPPs!
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Old November 19th, 2010, 06:18 AM   #2259
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You guys, especially luci203, forget something far more important than 4 euro. Your life. And your wife/girlfriend's wife. Husband's/boyfriend's. Kids'.

I would pay even 8-10 euro/100 km to avoid the idiots, truckies and falling rocks on the current Sibiu-Pitesti DN. No question about it. And I'm sure 60-70% of people think the same way.

There is absolutely NO REASON to think Sibiu-Pitesti and/or Comarnic-Brasov won't get the investment back. I think they will get the investment back even sooner than anticipated!

And like LeClerk said, even if this is not true, the state guarantees the investment. So there is absolutely no problem with getting ROI. There are other problems with PPPs in RO.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 09:14 AM   #2260
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You guys, especially luci203, forget something far more important than 4 euro. Your life. And your wife/girlfriend's wife. Husband's/boyfriend's. Kids'.

I would pay even 8-10 euro/100 km to avoid the idiots, truckies and falling rocks on the current Sibiu-Pitesti DN. No question about it. And I'm sure 60-70% of people think the same way.

There is absolutely NO REASON to think Sibiu-Pitesti and/or Comarnic-Brasov won't get the investment back. I think they will get the investment back even sooner than anticipated!

And like LeClerk said, even if this is not true, the state guarantees the investment. So there is absolutely no problem with getting ROI. There are other problems with PPPs in RO.
Ionut, I think we shouldn't be overoptimistic regarding traffic between Pitesti and Sibiu. I think it won't exceed 10000 over many sections, as from the traffic between Pitesti and Rm. Valcea just a fraction continues all the way to Sibiu, others stopping in Valcea or going to Tg. Jiu. Also traffic on Valcea-Sibiu section comes not only from Pitesti but also from Craiova, Valcea and Tg. Jiu. Also local traffic can't use the motorway. And there is a lot of it from Valcea to Calimanesti and Cozia. The most trafficked sections will be from Pitesti to Curtea de Arges, because it will be used by traffic Pitesti-Curtea de Arges, which is quite important, especially in the summer, when people are going to Transfagarasan, and also Racovita-Sibiu, because traffic from DN7 can join the motorway, which runs from here parallel to the national road. But between Curtea de Arges and Racovita, traffic, in my opinion, won't exceed 10000.
So, a PPP without a regular annual pay from the state can't function. We saw this on Comarnic-Brasov, where the state should have paid 180 milion euros per year to the concesionnaire.
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