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Old November 19th, 2010, 04:53 PM   #2281
Baiazid
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Well, actually most of the Romanians drivng to and from Europe are on professional poupouses, not personal. And I'm not reffering to the weel known touristical seasons. I'm talking about day to day traffic.

As for the fuel consumption, do not compare Braila - Drajna road, quit straight and with generous takeover spaces, with DN7 between Ramnicu Valcea and Sibiu, with curves and slopes up and down and long uniterrupted lines where you have to drive 50km/h behind slow trucks, then accelerate like a Pole Position start in order to benefit from the 250m availbale space for taking over the truck.

Should a motorway be available between Pitesti and Sibiu, the transit time will be about 1h for any driver, as opposed to at least 1h30' on the existing road, while the consumption will be in average less then half on the motorway. I think that would worth more then 4 EUR for any driver. That is, of course, considering that by the time Pitesti - Sibiu motorway will open, the Dacia 1310 will be long gone

As for the traffic, really, I don't know where you get the traffic values you're talking about. I can tell you from the road, that in 2008 the traffic between Ramnicu Valcea - Sibiu and Orastie - Deva - Mintia was heavier then DN1 between Ploiesti - Brasov. DN1 fills up on week-ends, but DN7 was full 24h/day. The smallest window I knew for "lighter" traffic was between 02:00 - 06:00, when I only had to deal with trucks.

Like I said, 2009 and 2010 are a diffrent story. But any investor will think ahead. They don't have to blindly estimate traffic in the future. They only have to look at the traffic values of 2007-2008.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 05:23 PM   #2282
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Baiazid View Post

As for the fuel consumption, do not compare Braila - Drajna road, quit straight and with generous takeover spaces, with DN7 between Ramnicu Valcea and Sibiu, with curves and slopes up and down and long uniterrupted lines where you have to drive 50km/h behind slow trucks, then accelerate like a Pole Position start in order to benefit from the 250m availbale space for taking over the truck.

Should a motorway be available between Pitesti and Sibiu, the transit time will be about 1h for any driver, as opposed to at least 1h30' on the existing road, while the consumption will be in average less then half on the motorway. I think that would worth more then 4 EUR for any driver. That is, of course, considering that by the time Pitesti - Sibiu motorway will open, the Dacia 1310 will be long gone

As for the traffic, really, I don't know where you get the traffic values you're talking about. I can tell you from the road, that in 2008 the traffic between Ramnicu Valcea - Sibiu and Orastie - Deva - Mintia was heavier then DN1 between Ploiesti - Brasov. DN1 fills up on week-ends, but DN7 was full 24h/day. The smallest window I knew for "lighter" traffic was between 02:00 - 06:00, when I only had to deal with trucks.

Like I said, 2009 and 2010 are a diffrent story. But any investor will think ahead. They don't have to blindly estimate traffic in the future. They only have to look at the traffic values of 2007-2008.
I always obtain at least 1l/100km higher fuel consumption on Bucharest-Pitesti than on Pitesti-Valcea-Sibiu. As of comparing DN1 with DN7 I don't have any data, as it doesn't exist. But I never encountered so many queues on DN7 after the opening of Pitesti bypass and Bascov underground passage, as I encounter on DN1 almost everytime, not just weekends, around Comarnic-Posada.

So you basically want to say that an investor will build the motorway and wait to gain its profit just from the tolls, without a government yearly fee? I'm clearly negative on this aspect. We will live and we will see...
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Old November 19th, 2010, 06:17 PM   #2283
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I'm saying exactly what I'm saying:
1. Traffic on Ramnicu Valcea - Sibiu and Orastie - Minitia is consistently high, 24/7, while DN1 has peaks during weekends and touristical sesons, yet it's empty by night and even by day in Spring and Autumn.
2. Without talking about individual driving styles, on average the fuel consumption is notriously less by 10-25% using the motorway rather then regular roads.

As for the ROI for the motorway Pitesti - Sibiu, yes, I'm sure an investor can have a profitable investment out of it, including maintenance. Bear also in mind that this road is the main link of Bulgaria, Turkey and Middle East with Western Europe and inside EU.

But, of course, that all remains to be seen...
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Old November 19th, 2010, 06:18 PM   #2284
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You will always encounter queues on DN7 near Arad, Deva - Orastie, Sebes, Sibiu (just few more days because the crash barriers are shiny ) and Ramnicu Valcea (sometimes).

As for the fuel consumption, you can always stick behind a truck at 90 km/h on the motorway and you will get the fuel consumption that the car producer declares. If you can't resist going that slow it means that you can afford a higher fuel consumption.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 06:23 PM   #2285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bogdymol View Post
You will always encounter queues on DN7 near Arad, Deva - Orastie, Sebes, Sibiu (just few more days because the crash barriers are shiny ) and Ramnicu Valcea (sometimes).

As for the fuel consumption, you can always stick behind a truck at 90 km/h on the motorway and you will get the fuel consumption that the car producer declares. If you can't resist going that slow it means that you can afford a higher fuel consumption.
that's funny .. hehehe ...
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Old November 19th, 2010, 06:25 PM   #2286
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from this pic, the only sections with over 16k are:

Bucuresti-Ploiesti-Predeal, Bucuresti-Pitesti and some short sections around big cities.

@baiazid:
the trafic on Valcea-Sibiu look very heavy, because of that hard road (only 1x1, hills and valleys, lot of tight curves, continues line, etc) but the number of cars is not that high.

If you have a better (corect) pic or something, please post.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Baiazid View Post
Bear also in mind that this road is the main link of Bulgaria, Turkey and Middle East with Western Europe and inside EU.

But, of course, that all remains to be seen...
No, the main link is CX (Istambul-Sofia-Belgrad-and so) - not to mention is like 80-90% finished motorway.
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Last edited by luci203; November 19th, 2010 at 06:34 PM.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 07:10 PM   #2287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Baiazid View Post
As for the ROI for the motorway Pitesti - Sibiu, yes, I'm sure an investor can have a profitable investment out of it, including maintenance. Bear also in mind that this road is the main link of Bulgaria, Turkey and Middle East with Western Europe and inside EU.

But, of course, that all remains to be seen...
If it was so, the investors would have pressured the romanian government they want to invest in that motorway long time ago, and it was ready by now...Why a government won't accept a PPP if it has no obligations? Regarding fuel consumption, I suggest you to look at your car computer and compare the motorway and no motorway sections.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 07:19 PM   #2288
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Although motorway speed consumes more fuel than national road speed, you can rarely drive 90 km/h for 100 km in a row. If you'll pass through towns, traffic lights or roundabouts, your consumption grows, so motorway speed, being more constant for longer distances, can eventually result in a lower fuel consumption. If time is also a consideration, for example for business trips, it can quickly offset fuel consumption and tolls.

For example, if your fee is € 40 per hour, and you have two options;

* motorway: 6 liters fuel, 1 hour, € 4 toll
* highway: 5 liters fuel, 1.5 hour, toll free

Then you'll see the motorway is cheaper, because you save € 20 in working time, but the extra cost of tolls and fuel is only some € 5. This means the motorway is € 15 cheaper.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 07:22 PM   #2289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panda80 View Post
If it was so, the investors would have pressured the romanian government they want to invest in that motorway long time ago, and it was ready by now...Why a government won't accept a PPP if it has no obligations?
or why did they droped Comarnic-Brasov, even with 180 million a year from the government?

because the trafic is bigger on Prahova Valey than Olt Valey, so even better to colect money (also I belive is shorter, and the terain more easy, so it will be cheaper)

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Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
For example, if your fee is € 40 per hour, and you have two options;

* motorway: 6 liters fuel, 1 hour, € 4 toll
* highway: 5 liters fuel, 1.5 hour, toll free

Then you'll see the motorway is cheaper, because you save € 20 in working time, but the extra cost of tolls and fuel is only some € 5. This means the motorway is € 15 cheaper.


what driver do you think earn € 40 per hour in Romania?

40 x 8 x 5 x 4 ~ 6400 € a month (26.880 ron)

average driver (not from Bucharest) recive let's say 1680 ron a month. (400 € and I'm generous)
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Last edited by luci203; November 19th, 2010 at 07:33 PM.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 07:31 PM   #2290
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
Although motorway speed consumes more fuel than national road speed, you can rarely drive 90 km/h for 100 km in a row. If you'll pass through towns, traffic lights or roundabouts, your consumption grows, so motorway speed, being more constant for longer distances, can eventually result in a lower fuel consumption. If time is also a consideration, for example for business trips, it can quickly offset fuel consumption and tolls.

For example, if your fee is € 40 per hour, and you have two options;

* motorway: 6 liters fuel, 1 hour, € 4 toll
* highway: 5 liters fuel, 1.5 hour, toll free

Then you'll see the motorway is cheaper, because you save € 20 in working time, but the extra cost of tolls and fuel is only some € 5. This means the motorway is € 15 cheaper.
Yes, you are right, and I agree with you 100%. I just commented on the fact that fuel consumption on a motorway is smaller, and on the fact that romanians will choose to drive on motorway if high tolls are implemented. I, for example, always choose the motorway if it's less time costly and the toll is reasonable, but many romanians won't. Very few earn the sums of money you are talking about.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 07:33 PM   #2291
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Quote:
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what driver do you think earn € 40 per hour in Romania?

40 x 8 x 5 x 4 ~ 6400 € a month (26.880 ron) average driver (not from Bucharest) recive 1500 ron a month.
Or maybe you should've read my post more carefully...

I didn't say wage, but fee. The fee your company bills for your services. In the Netherlands, € 40 per hour is mainly for low-income jobs like bicycle repair guys, house painters, etc. They don't earn € 40 per hour, but more like € 10 per hour. The rest is overhead cost.

For example, if someone from Sibiu attends a business meeting in Bucuresti, he or she has to drive there during company time, with a billing fee of € 40 per hour, even though he or she is not a driver by profession and may only make € 10 per hour in gross income.

Another example; the fee my boss asks for my services is around 5 times my gross income...

Last edited by ChrisZwolle; November 19th, 2010 at 07:40 PM.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 07:47 PM   #2292
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I drove my Dacia Logan on various national roads, my avg was 6.6L/100km. When driving Timisoara-Viena and back, it rose to something like 7.6L/100km, not such a big increase, but the comfort of driving on motorway and the time saving were worth it. Anyway, you don't drive on the motorway so much for private interest, if you drive less than 100km, you can use the normal highway also, but if you want to go more, it's logical to use the safer and quicker way.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 07:55 PM   #2293
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Quote:
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I drove my Dacia Logan on various national roads, my avg was 6.6L/100km. When driving Timisoara-Viena and back, it rose to something like 7.6L/100km, not such a big increase, but the comfort of driving on motorway and the time saving were worth it. Anyway, you don't drive on the motorway so much for private interest, if you drive less than 100km, you can use the normal highway also, but if you want to go more, it's logical to use the safer and quicker way.
So...like I said, about 1l/100km difference. Indeed the comfort of using the motorway and the time economy worth going on the motorway, I totally agree with all of you on this matter.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 07:58 PM   #2294
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
Or maybe you should've read my post more carefully...

I didn't say wage, but fee. The fee your company bills for your services. In the Netherlands, € 40 per hour is mainly for low-income jobs like bicycle repair guys, house painters, etc. They don't earn € 40 per hour, but more like € 10 per hour. The rest is overhead cost.

For example, if someone from Sibiu attends a business meeting in Bucuresti, he or she has to drive there during company time, with a billing fee of € 40 per hour, even though he or she is not a driver by profession and may only make € 10 per hour in gross income.

Another example; the fee my boss asks for my services is around 5 times my gross income...
I don't know how is in Netherlands, but here, No one thake this kind of money...

Yes, for people attending business meetings, the toll is no object... time is money... but they are a few... the swarm of cars running the country, are small delivery guys in pick-up trucks or even smaller cars, with 400 € wage on month, or other kind of these services. erase everything that you know about the normal situation in the west.

2 give u an example of how the typical owner (and employer) think, I will give u a personal example.

I had to go in a "business trip" (transport something with a pick-up van) an my boss, told me that I could sleep in the car for the night, so he won't have to pay a motel, and give me half of the money. (to hell with the safety, when I turn back, because of the poor rest) When I refused, he told me that all drivers do that... for a little cash more... so, please clear your mind of any logical thing that happen in the west...

belive me, if the romanian can spare 5 € they will do that (50% of them any way)
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Old November 19th, 2010, 08:37 PM   #2295
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@luci203, it seems to me your talking out of a limited experience and based mostly on presumptions that only make sens to you. What Chriss sais it's how people managing companies, either big or small, think. People driving company cars - which makes most of the interurban traffic - are under constant pessure to get there as fast as possible. You're talking about the very few remaining people which use their car as an umbrela, driving it only when it rains and on Sunday. But that's not the main traffic, despite your claim of being at leat 50%. You should really drive more and see what's happening for real on the roads.

Now, the chart you've posted is a rough estimate for 2015. I don't know when it was made and what was the base. However, the results of the traffic count in 2005, when Romania only had ~3.5 million vehicles were very close to the estimates in your chart. I seriously doubt that in 2007/2008, when the leasing market was at 2 bln. EUR and when Romania reached 5 mln. vehicles, out of which 4.2 mln. were cars, the traffic chart was quite the same. Actually, I bet the traffic values were significantly above your chart. But, there were no counts made that year. Therefore, maybe your chart with estimates for 2015 is based on the 2005 count, which would obviously be wrong.

Currently, The National Road Company is performing a new traffic count, all year arround. We'll see next year the results.

Till then, you're pointing out senslessly that Ploiesti - Brasov has a very high MZA (Media Zilnica Anuala = Yearly Daily Average). You're actually proving my point. Ploiesti - Brasov peeks (was peaking) at >50,000 cars / day during the weekends, then it was dropping as low as 3,000 cars / day during the working days, thus giving a high yearly averrage. On the other hand, Pitesti -Ramnicu Valcea - Sibiu, as transit route and less touristical route, has a constant traffic.

But, again, the traffic should be considered in the development perspective of Romania. Should the works start on Pitesti - Sibiu tomorrow, the eraliest we could use the motorway would be 2014-2015. The investor would then have to get his money back + the profit between 2015 - 2045. What do you think? Would your kid afford 4-5-10 EUR / 100 km in 2035? Would you?! Would then the investor get his money back?!

@panda, your opinion is totally wrong, about investors pressuring for having access to motorway construction in Romania. All the contructors know that at some point, Romania will start major investments in infrastructure. So they keep an eye on it. Till then, their money are busy elsewhere. They don't have to scratch the door in Bucharest. However, if the goverment opens the door to such investments, investors will come.

Last edited by Baiazid; November 19th, 2010 at 08:42 PM.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 08:49 PM   #2296
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Quote:
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@luci203, it seems to me your talking out of a limited experience and based mostly on presumptions that only make sens to you.
No, it was an example of "limited personal experience", but the mindset is general.

Most of the companies in romania are small and medium, for wich every penny they can squeeze count, for both owner and employer. Same thing for average "umbrela" driver.

Bottom line, again... if the romanian can spare 5 € they will do that (50% of them anyway)

P.S.
and about the chart... pleas post a more corect one, or shut up...

I doubt they did that prediction considering that the auto park will remain the same... be sure they take into acount a semnificant increase (maybe they where even optimist, not taking into acount the financial chrisis) remember 2006 was a "booming year" (look better is 2006, not 2005)

Let's say this: if they build it with no payment every year from the government (becayse it will be profitable on it's own, and who would wanna miss such a big oportunity to make a lot of money) you win, and if they will recive a lagre sum of money every year I win.
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Last edited by luci203; November 19th, 2010 at 09:15 PM.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 09:14 PM   #2297
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New pics of Sibiu bypass:

1) Section B (Vectra Service)




2) The roundabout in DN1/DN7




3) Section A - Calea Guşteriţei overpass (JV Max Bogl/Geiger/Contram)







And this one is dedicated to Radi :

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Old November 19th, 2010, 09:16 PM   #2298
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Those are the shiniest crash barriers I have ever seen. Did you protect you eyes with sun glasses?
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Old November 19th, 2010, 09:18 PM   #2299
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did they finished pouring the last layer on the bridge over the south rail (Selimbar)?

I was monday on it, and I had to take a detour on that spot... the rest of it I was able to drive it all the way.
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Old November 19th, 2010, 09:40 PM   #2300
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bogdymol View Post
Those are the shiniest crash barriers I have ever seen. Did you protect you eyes with sun glasses?


Quote:
Originally Posted by luci203 View Post
did they finished pouring the last layer on the bridge over the south rail (Selimbar)?

I was monday on it, and I had to take a detour on that spot... the rest of it I was able to drive it all the way.
Not yet, they were still working on it.
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