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Old November 14th, 2011, 07:33 PM   #3761
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What security ?
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Old November 14th, 2011, 07:39 PM   #3762
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it is proven that long straight motorways are dangerous and that is why now curves are built where there is no need for one.
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Old November 14th, 2011, 08:13 PM   #3763
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Clerk View Post


Added levels of probability:


2011
A1: Timisoara-Arad - 35 km - CERTAIN
A2: Murfatlar-Constanta - 15 km - DELIVERED
A3: 0 km
A4: Valul lui Traian-Agigea: 11 km - DELIVERED

Total openings 2011: 61 km
=========================


Total motorway end 2011: 394km



2012
A1: Arad bypass - 12 km - CERTAIN
A1: Orastie-Simeria - 15 km - PROBABLE
A2: Cernavoda-Medgidia - 20 km - PROBABLE
A2: Medgidia-Murfatlar - 16 km - CERTAIN
A3: Bucharest Ring-Ploiesti - 55 km - CERTAIN
A3: Bucharest-Bucharest Ring - 7 km - PROBABLE
A3: Suplacu-Bors - 65 km - PROBABLE
A4: Ovidiu-Valul lui Traian - 11 km - CERTAIN

Total openings 2012: 201 km
=========================


Total motorway end 2012: 595 km
it looks like a real progress. is your assumption from last year still valid ?

I mean you were certain there would be something like 2000 km of new motorways until 2020 (which is 200 km every year)
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Old November 14th, 2011, 08:18 PM   #3764
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There is quite a good probability that another 200 km will be delivered in 2013. From 2014 on it's unclear what will be the progress because there will be a change of government in 2013. However, if current plans are observed, this trend might continue.
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Old November 14th, 2011, 08:19 PM   #3765
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bad_Hafen View Post
it is proven that long straight motorways are dangerous and that is why now curves are built where there is no need for one.
That section is not straight. Look again at pictures.
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Old November 14th, 2011, 08:26 PM   #3766
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Clerk View Post
There is quite a good probability that another 200 km will be delivered in 2013. From 2014 on it's unclear what will be the progress because there will be a change of government in 2013. However, if current plans are observed, this trend might continue.
do you know guys, what is an average cost of 200 km of motorways in Romania ?
and - what is the percentage of Romanian budget ?
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Old November 14th, 2011, 09:03 PM   #3767
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The standard cost per km (plain geography, no art works) is around EUR 5 mil, and the average I think it's about 6 million. The costs have gone down a lot in the past year following the introduction of standards of costs.

The motorway budgetary allocation is about EUR 1 billion / year, or about 0.025% of the budget.
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Old November 14th, 2011, 10:29 PM   #3768
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Clerk



Added levels of probability:

2012
A1: Arad bypass - 12 km - CERTAIN
A1: Orastie-Simeria - 15 km - PROBABLE
A2: Cernavoda-Medgidia - 20 km - PROBABLE
A2: Medgidia-Murfatlar - 16 km - CERTAIN
A3: Bucharest Ring-Ploiesti - 55 km - CERTAIN
A3: Bucharest-Bucharest Ring - 7 km - PROBABLE
A3: Suplacu-Bors - 65 km - PROBABLE
A4: Ovidiu-Valul lui Traian - 11 km - CERTAIN

Total openings 2012: 201 km
=========================

Total motorway end 2012: 595 km
Thanks Le Clerk! Although as usual I believe you're very optimistic, cool idea for a game though!:
My 2012 predictions:

A1: Arad bypass - 12 km - ALMOST CERTAIN
A1: Orastie-Simeria - 15 km - SLIGHT CHANCE
A2: Cernavoda-Medgidia - 20 km - UNLIKELY
A2: Medgidia-Murfatlar - 16 km - GOOD CHANCE
A3: Bucharest Ring-Ploiesti - 55 km - ALMOST CERTAIN
A3: Bucharest-Bucharest Ring - 7 km - UNLIKELY
A3: Suplacu-Bors - 65 km - AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN
A4: Ovidiu-Valul lui Traian - 11 km - SLIGHT CHANCE

I hope I'm wrong but in the past I've been overly optimistic...
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Old November 14th, 2011, 11:15 PM   #3769
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Clerk View Post
The standard cost per km (plain geography, no art works) is around EUR 5 mil, and the average I think it's about 6 million. The costs have gone down a lot in the past year following the introduction of standards of costs.

The motorway budgetary allocation is about EUR 1 billion / year, or about 0.025% of the budget.
ok, I must admit I am a little bit lost.
what you wrote means you can easily construct 200 km of full-profile motorways a year without any external funds

this is at least what your budget "says". actually I did not understand 1 bil euro is 0.025% of the budget, I just took into consideration 1 billion euro (budgetary allocation) vs. 5 mil euro for 1 km.

now, if this year is 61 km and next year is around 100 km. I am just curious what happens to the rest ...
or maybe 5 mil euro per 1 km is not fully realistic ? still I am talking about Romanian funds only, now if we consider EU funds or PPP or Chineses.

PS. last year you wanted to put some money it would be 200 km a year. still willing to do that ?
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Old November 14th, 2011, 11:15 PM   #3770
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Samply View Post
Thanks Le Clerk! Although as usual I believe you're very optimistic, cool idea for a game though!:
My 2012 predictions:

A1: Arad bypass - 12 km - ALMOST CERTAIN
A1: Orastie-Simeria - 15 km - SLIGHT CHANCE
A2: Cernavoda-Medgidia - 20 km - UNLIKELY
A2: Medgidia-Murfatlar - 16 km - GOOD CHANCE
A3: Bucharest Ring-Ploiesti - 55 km - ALMOST CERTAIN
A3: Bucharest-Bucharest Ring - 7 km - UNLIKELY
A3: Suplacu-Bors - 65 km - AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN
A4: Ovidiu-Valul lui Traian - 11 km - SLIGHT CHANCE

I hope I'm wrong but in the past I've been overly optimistic...
Except for Arad bypass, which will definitely be opened early next year, I completely agree with you. To be honest, I would also add Bucharest-Bucharest Ring to AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN category.
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Old November 14th, 2011, 11:26 PM   #3771
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As usually, I am a bit more optimistic than you guys, so I stick to my predictions.
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Old November 14th, 2011, 11:28 PM   #3772
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Quote:
Originally Posted by and802 View Post
ok, I must admit I am a little bit lost.
what you wrote means you can easily construct 200 km of full-profile motorways a year without any external funds

this is at least what your budget "says". actually I did not understand 1 bil euro is 0.025% of the budget, I just took into consideration 1 billion euro (budgetary allocation) vs. 5 mil euro for 1 km.

now, if this year is 61 km and next year is around 100 km. I am just curious what happens to the rest ...
or maybe 5 mil euro per 1 km is not fully realistic ? still I am talking about Romanian funds only, now if we consider EU funds or PPP or Chineses.

PS. last year you wanted to put some money it would be 200 km a year. still willing to do that ?
I am not sure what you mean. You have to take into consideration that there are over 300 km of motorway currently U/C, with only about 2/3 with EU funds.
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Old November 14th, 2011, 11:46 PM   #3773
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easy.

do you support your statement: 2000 km of new motorways till 2020 ?
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Old November 14th, 2011, 11:48 PM   #3774
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I think I said 2,000 km in total (with what we have currently), not much of a big difference, I admit, but I maintain it.
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Old November 15th, 2011, 12:04 AM   #3775
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no problem. read your own post #835
you meant new motorways:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Clerk View Post
... I would be ready to bet some money on 2000 km to be built by 2020. Hopefully.
ready to bet ?
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Old November 15th, 2011, 12:19 AM   #3776
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@and802,
I feel the need to mention that some of the highways to be opened in 2012 (electoral year) are in big delay:
- Bucharest - Ploiesti (62 km) started in 2007
- Suplacu de Barcau - Bors started in 2004 or 2005 (I don't remember)

The reality is uglier than some people might think.
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Old November 15th, 2011, 07:17 AM   #3777
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Quote:
Originally Posted by and802 View Post
no problem. read your own post #835
you meant new motorways:



ready to bet ?
I just read my early post mentioned by ytou and you are right, but I am not betting on that anymore, to be frank . But I still think we can catch up with the 2,000 overall figure.
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Old November 15th, 2011, 07:22 AM   #3778
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Quote:
Originally Posted by danielstan View Post
@and802,
I feel the need to mention that some of the highways to be opened in 2012 (electoral year) are in big delay:
- Bucharest - Ploiesti (62 km) started in 2007
- Suplacu de Barcau - Bors started in 2004 or 2005 (I don't remember)

The reality is uglier than some people might think.
And A1 started in 1970s ... the relevance being .... ? You can't judge the motorway construction from what happened years ago, under completely different circumstances.

Bucharest-Ploiesti and Suplacu de Barcau-Bors have been put on hold for years, the same as Cluj - Campia Turzii. Yet, as soon as the money started flowing and the threat of contract termination was brandished, miracles were made. Do you remember that Cluj-Campia Turzii was completed in 1 year after works resumed at 30%, because money was there and there was a stringent need for completion from the current government?? I believe next year there is a similar stringent need for completion from the current government and miracles will be made again.

The number of U/C km of motorway has increased a lot from a couple of years ago (from under 100 to over 300 this year) and will increase even more in the future, to over 500 next year, and probably more in 2014. This will cause a complete shift in motorway completion rates, at an average of 150-200 km / year.
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Last edited by Le Clerk; November 15th, 2011 at 07:30 AM.
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Old November 15th, 2011, 08:52 AM   #3779
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Clerk View Post
I just read my early post mentioned by ytou and you are right, but I am not betting on that anymore, to be frank . But I still think we can catch up with the 2,000 overall figure.
right.

just to remind you ...

at first you were looking at 2700 km of new motorways till 2020,
then you went down with your figures to 2000 km.
now you are talking about 1600 km (20 months later - around 1100 km less). I can only guess what would be your figure 20 months later from now

some people visit this forum not frequently and do not trace this thread post by post. it is up to you whether you want to share your thoughts with the rest of the world, but if we want to see this thread professional I believe we should post here information which is based on facts, not on our wishful thinking.
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Old November 15th, 2011, 11:37 AM   #3780
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I believe I posted that personal estimate 2 years ago. You asked me to revisit it now, and then you get back at me for answering that to you and being unprofessional?

Most info posted by myself and others here is based on official data, and I include here the estimates for coming year openings.

Please, don't ask me anymore about my own estimates. Thanks.
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