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Old December 11th, 2012, 12:33 AM   #5381
danielstan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
Will the elections of yesterday result in changes to the road development of Romania?
It is a tradition in Romania that after elections the works on highways are slowing down, 'due to unforeseenable reasons' (eufemistically said).
In fact the biggest number of km of highways are inaugurated at the end of the 4 years mandate term.

Other colleagues have observed that during the last months the pace of organizing tenders for new highways has decreased, so in 2014 - 2015 we will surely have less km of new highways to open.

Also the parties in the current govt. (which have clearly won the elections) have spent a lot public money for social gifts (increasing salaries and pensions) and those social costs must be sustained in the next years, without a very big economic growth (estimates).

During last days some programs financed by EU (includin POS-Transport) have been un-blocked, but with 'corrections' = less money given by EU.
In 2012 most of the highways builders have worked on credit (with EU programs put on hold) and next months they expect the state pays its debts.

We have the recipe for a stagnation or reduction in highways building in the next 2 years.
----------------------
I believe that whatever parties would have won the elections, the highways program would have been reduced, under such economic circumstances.

Last edited by danielstan; December 11th, 2012 at 01:56 AM.
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Old December 11th, 2012, 02:00 AM   #5382
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhirgataZFs1694 View Post
wow

Was the red bridge on the right built especially for the motorway interchange? Do you have more pics of it?
That bridge is only for light traffic between Cerna-Voda city and the highway.
Trucks need to make a detour if they go to Cernavoda.
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Old December 11th, 2012, 09:03 AM   #5383
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
Will the elections of yesterday result in changes to the road development of Romania?
After the elections CNADNR made three four tender announcements for PPP construction, financing and the operation of the following motorways:
- Comrnic - Brasov
- Craiova - Pitesti
- Ploiesti - Buzau - Focsani
- Bucharest Ring South, from A1 to A2
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Old December 11th, 2012, 09:09 AM   #5384
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Originally Posted by Jack_Frost View Post
its his government he was talking about, not his country. i love my country, but if it was up to me, we should lock the doors of our parliament in budapest when every politician is in there, and burn it down to the ground. ok, it would be a shame for that beautiful building, but i reached a point that i think it may be worth it...
It's not his government.It's the party and the leader he supports. And just like that leader, Tepes and many others don't get democracy and the fact that their way is not the only way. So they'd rather burn down the country then step down from power, even if the election result was overwhelmingly telling them to.
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Old December 11th, 2012, 09:10 AM   #5385
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
Will the elections of yesterday result in changes to the road development of Romania?
Yes. As I expected, there is a switch to other projects, as follows:

1) Comarnic-Brasov works (A3) were tendered yesterday for a PPP (second time after 2009 if I remember well) for ~ cost of EUR 1 billion. The project is very difficult: 35 bridges and 18 tunnels for 75% of the total lenght of the section (58 km)

2) published tender announcement for Ploiesti-Focsani motorway on A5 (133 km on C IX) also for a PPP - estimated price EUR 1,1 billion

3) published tender announcement for Craiova-Pitesti (A16 ?) motorway (100 km) also PPP - at ~ EUR 600 million

4) published tender announcement for A0 south (50 km) also PPP together with maintenance works for A2


And I am not joking.


Let's see if they sign anything of that by early next year.

PS: There is clearly no more budget money for non-EU funded projects so we'll clearly see more PPPs.

The Road Company is yet to annouce winners for almost 100 more motorway km on A1, lots which were tendered in September if I remember well.
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Last edited by Le Clerk; December 11th, 2012 at 09:49 AM.
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Old December 11th, 2012, 10:13 AM   #5386
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your calculation says you need at least 2,6 billion. I believe the most important factor is: how to manage a PPP. this is not easy these days to tempt organisations to invest this kind of money. lets see.

as usual everything depends on conditions ...
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Old December 11th, 2012, 10:27 AM   #5387
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These are all PPPs, so the money should be brought by investors, not by the Gov. Comarnic-Brasov was very close to be signed as PPP in 2009 with Vinci, but the economic crisis stopped everything.

If they manage to sign 2 of the 4 projects next year, and it's still a huge accomplishment. And I am politically not very fond of this Gov, and Baiazid knows it. But I am interested more in infrastructure development, than in who is in charge.
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Last edited by Le Clerk; December 11th, 2012 at 10:51 AM.
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Old December 11th, 2012, 11:23 AM   #5388
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Clerk View Post
And I am politically not very fond of this Gov, and Baiazid knows it. But I am interested more in infrastructure development, than in who is in charge.
Very well said Le Clerk

Any news on the remaining sections of the A1?
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Old December 11th, 2012, 12:38 PM   #5389
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Clerk View Post
Comarnic-Brasov was very close to be signed as PPP in 2009 with Vinci, but the economic crisis stopped everything.
You know very well that the crisis was just the pretext. We had enough inside rumors to know that corruption, in particularly what Vinci - Aktor consortium was supposed to "pay back" to the party. Nevermind though.

Currently I'm pretty convince that the new tender for Comarnic - Brasov is dedicated to Vinci. And as much as we'd like to split politics and infrastructre, I'm sure this tender has to do with the fact that Vinci is French, and France is led by the socialists, and our PM needs the France support in the political battles ahead. So the tender will be awarded to Vinci in order to "stregthen" the Romanian - French "friendship". Which by the way was brutally shaken by the termination of the Colas contract. Even if it was well justified...
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Old December 11th, 2012, 01:39 PM   #5390
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I frankly hope we don't have another "Bechtel case", contract which was BTW also awarded based on an intergovernmental favour in 2004 (when the Government was also Socialist-led). I do not want to make any connection, but even if the contract will be awarded to Vinci, I hope at least it will not be as bad as the contract with Bechtel.

As for Vinci-Aktor, what I know is that Aktor was owned by Greek Gov which had just been declared bankrupt internationally, and so no bank in its right minds would have lent money to Vinci/Aktor consortium for an extremely difficult project in Romania, as no bank is currently insane enough to lend money to Greek Gov.

And so I hope at least no Greek company will join this project.
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Last edited by Le Clerk; December 11th, 2012 at 02:23 PM.
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Old December 11th, 2012, 02:38 PM   #5391
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Quote:
Romania Puts Two Vital Highways Up For Concession: Craiova-Pitesti And Ploiesti-Focsani
today, 08:50

The national roads authority in Romania (CNADNR) intends to put up for concession two contracts for designing and building Craiova-Pitesti and Ploiesti-Buzau-Focsani highways, which are set to cost up to EUR2 billion.
More in Romanian
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Old December 11th, 2012, 02:40 PM   #5392
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EduardSA View Post
Very well said Le Clerk

Any news on the remaining sections of the A1?
As I mentioned, the remaining sections on A1 (except Sibiu-Pitesti) were tendered already, and CNADNR needs to announce the winners (possibly in January, as I read).
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Old December 11th, 2012, 02:58 PM   #5393
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Clerk View Post
I frankly hope we don't have another "Bechtel case", contract which was BTW also awarded based on an intergovernmental favour in 2004 (when the Government was also Socialist-led). I do not want to make any connection, but even if the contract will be awarded to Vinci, I hope at least it will not be as bad as the contract with Bechtel.

As for Vinci-Aktor, what I know is that Aktor was owned by Greek Gov which had just been declared bankrupt internationally, and so no bank in its right minds would have lent money to Vinci/Aktor consortium for an extremely difficult project in Romania, as no bank is currently insane enough to lend money to Greek Gov.

And so I hope at least no Greek company will join this project.
@LeClerk, Vinci is a 40 bln. EUR yearly turnover group. Trust me, if they need 3 bln. EUR for a 5 year contract, they get it with one phone call. The financing was not the issue in 2011 for the fail of the tender for Comarnic - Brasov.

We can't have a "Bechtel-type" contract anymore, since now we're EU member and the rules are diffrent now. Beside that, beeing a French, thus european group, Vinci can not have the same "I don't give a ****" attitude that Bechtel had in the past 8 years.
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Old December 11th, 2012, 03:49 PM   #5394
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Baiazid View Post
@LeClerk, Vinci is a 40 bln. EUR yearly turnover group. Trust me, if they need 3 bln. EUR for a 5 year contract, they get it with one phone call. The financing was not the issue in 2011 for the fail of the tender for Comarnic - Brasov.
If you talk to a banker/treasurer, he/she'll tell you size doesn't matter (Enron, Fannie Mae etc). Solvency is what really matters for lenders/banks, and that is given by ratings.

Greece had at the moment of the tender award a turnover of about EUR 300 billion (about 8 times more than Vinci) BUT had the rating of an insolvent, which is the worst rating possible. No bank would loan Greece or Greek state-owned companies at that moment, as no bank would loan Greek Gov today (that's why they are bailed out on and on by powerful EU states, not banks).

This is also why no bank would finance the PPP agreement entered into by the Vinci/Aktor consortium. The awful insolvent rate of Aktor would spread like cancer to its partner Vinci, and remove any possibility of a loan, let alone a good loan (low interest) for that particular project. This is what led to its failure.

Quote:
We can't have a "Bechtel-type" contract anymore, since now we're EU member and the rules are diffrent now. Beside that, beeing a French, thus european group, Vinci can not have the same "I don't give a ****" attitude that Bechtel had in the past 8 years.
We'll see about that. EU membership is not a guarantee bad things cannot happen. But I agree EU Commission will react very aggressively if smth goes array.
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Old December 11th, 2012, 05:43 PM   #5395
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If you talk to a banker/treasurer, he/she'll tell you size doesn't matter (Enron, Fannie Mae etc). Solvency is what really matters for lenders/banks, and that is given by ratings.
That's true. That's what they'll TELL YOU. Totally different of what they'll tell Enron, Fannie, Vici.

Anyway, it doesn't matter. We'll see about that. Fact is that we have now a new ongoing procedure. We'll have to see how it goes on.
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Old December 11th, 2012, 06:01 PM   #5396
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Vinci actual rating:

S&P: BBB+/A-2, stable outlook (investment grade)
(An obligor rated 'BBB' has adequate capacity to meet its financial commitments. However, adverse economic conditions or changing circumstances are more likely to lead to a weakened capacity of the obligor to meet its financial commitments.)
(A-2: is susceptible to adverse economic conditions however the obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation is satisfactory)

Moody's: Baa1/P2, stable outlook (investment grade)
(Baa1:Rated as medium grade, with some speculative elements and moderate credit risk.)
(P2:High ability to repay short term debt)

Fitch: BBB+, stable outlook (investment grade)
(BBB: medium class companies, which are satisfactory at the moment)
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Old December 11th, 2012, 06:26 PM   #5397
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Thanks. Looks like Vinci is in good standing. Do you have similar data for Aktor?
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Old December 12th, 2012, 02:28 AM   #5398
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If Aktor has problems of solvency, Vinci could find another associate.
Problem solved.
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Old December 12th, 2012, 08:58 AM   #5399
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Vinci doesn't need to have a tender associate in the first place, if they are so experienced and financially powerful.
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Old December 12th, 2012, 09:02 AM   #5400
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Quote:
Comarnic-Brasov motorway, put up for auction
DECEMBER 11TH, 2012 AT 9:00 PM

The Comarnic-Brasov motorway was put up for auction. The government is willing to pay RON 5.3 bln for the construction, operation and maintenance of the motorway, based on a concession contract, antena3.ro reports. The 58 km motorway will be divided in two segments: Comarnic-Predeal and Predeal-Brasov. It will have 35 bridges and viaducts, and 19 tunnels. Offers may be submitted by 21 January 2013. This is the government’s second attempt to build this motorway segment, after the first awarding of the contract was cancelled because of insufficient funding.
http://www.nineoclock.ro/comarnic-br...p-for-auction/
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