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Taguig For projects in Bonifacio Global City, McKinley Hill and other parts of the city



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Old February 24th, 2011, 01:32 AM   #301
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Originally Posted by 3cr View Post
Just want to share with you guys my first hand experience while in Pinas. When I visited The BeauFort showroom around Nov. last year Tower 1 was just about sold out, atleast that's what I've been told. I don't know how long FilInvest took to achieve this but they were trying to sell me a unit in Tower 2 na because it was pretty much slim pickings in Tower 1. Now Arya's Tower 1 was just about to breakground at that time if I'm not mistaken and the units I actually inquired about were quickly picked up by other buyers/investors, atleast that's what I've been told. Now I don't know if my experience is the exception to the rule but it doesn't seem to me that these highend projects (BeauFort & Arya) are selling so very slow as to come to the conclusion that price levels in BGC have reached the ceiling already. Let's not forget much of the 1st world has just gotten out of a financial crisis and many of our overseas buyers/investors have been hurt financially as a result and it will take some time for the world market to recover and consumer confidence to come back hence it will only be that much harder and take much more time to sell highend projects than mid-priced ones. And yet despite of this we are seeing an increasing number of high-end projects rising in Fort Boni / BGC from these well experienced developers. There is a reason why they are bullish about the highend market in BGC and so let's not fool ourselves into believing a price ceiling has already been reached/realized in Fort Boni (especially BGC) at this early point. Actually it's just in it's infancy and prices have almost doubled since 2004 and only expect prices will even be that much higher in 5-7 years as the City/CBD comes to fruition. Again just my humble opinion of course. Maybe Gene/Bevepi of Robinson Land can keep us abreast of St.Regis' sales performance when it finally comes on-line. Would you bro?
This is a great debate. I love this!

So this is what happens. It happened in the US and Canada and I should know as I live here. The developers see a hot real estate market...they pump up the prices and make as much as they can. As a matter of fact they market and market and market their projects to entice buyers and investors. They paint a pretty picture and will never admit they are flooding the market with condos.

Then they build and build and build and make out like bandits because once they've sold the initial units they can't lose any more money. It's like a corporation issuing private stock to raise money. Once the condos hit the resale market the developer is not in the picture anymore.

So eventually there is a glut and supply outstrips demand. This takes years to happen though. So now there are empty units everywhere and investors start going bankrupt because they are carrying 2,3 or more mortgages or bank loans. They can't rent them out for what they want as well if at all. Then they have to lower their asking price because no one will buy at the price they want because there are a gazillion other units available. Why would someone pay 10 million php when they can get the same unit for 9 million? It becomes a total buyer's market and no longer a seller's market.

It's not the developers who will determine the prices anymore at this point. It's the resale market. So developers will stop building new projects because it's not profitable for them to do so but they don't care at this point cause they made their money. You the investor will be left holding condos that are lower in value than what you paid for with a bunch of mortgages or loans to pay off. Which then causes a credit crisis. And it's really easy to get a loan in the Philippines too. Not as easy as it was in the US which caused their crisis but easy enough. Now bankruptcies start going up.

Maybe BGC will be an exception because it's a really nice area but that didn't stop places like Las Vegas, Vancouver, Arizona, Florida...all saw big drops in their values.

And you have to factor in what another hot area like E-City will do to lure potential investors away from BGC or Makati.

Man, I wish I was there and we could have this discussion over some San Miguels!
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Old February 24th, 2011, 04:34 AM   #302
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Most of the developments U/C in BGC has shifted from residentials to office buildings. This insulates BGC from the glut because companies that are leasing in this offices will normally require residentials for their employees.

Look at Net Lima, GlobeTower, Bench Tower, Shangrila, PSE, etc.
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Old February 24th, 2011, 05:27 AM   #303
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Originally Posted by nelly2112 View Post
This is a great debate. I love this!

So this is what happens. It happened in the US and Canada and I should know as I live here. The developers see a hot real estate market...they pump up the prices and make as much as they can. As a matter of fact they market and market and market their projects to entice buyers and investors. They paint a pretty picture and will never admit they are flooding the market with condos.

Then they build and build and build and make out like bandits because once they've sold the initial units they can't lose any more money. It's like a corporation issuing private stock to raise money. Once the condos hit the resale market the developer is not in the picture anymore.

So eventually there is a glut and supply outstrips demand. This takes years to happen though. So now there are empty units everywhere and investors start going bankrupt because they are carrying 2,3 or more mortgages or bank loans. They can't rent them out for what they want as well if at all. Then they have to lower their asking price because no one will buy at the price they want because there are a gazillion other units available. Why would someone pay 10 million php when they can get the same unit for 9 million? It becomes a total buyer's market and no longer a seller's market.

It's not the developers who will determine the prices anymore at this point. It's the resale market. So developers will stop building new projects because it's not profitable for them to do so but they don't care at this point cause they made their money. You the investor will be left holding condos that are lower in value than what you paid for with a bunch of mortgages or loans to pay off. Which then causes a credit crisis. And it's really easy to get a loan in the Philippines too. Not as easy as it was in the US which caused their crisis but easy enough. Now bankruptcies start going up.

Maybe BGC will be an exception because it's a really nice area but that didn't stop places like Las Vegas, Vancouver, Arizona, Florida...all saw big drops in their values.

And you have to factor in what another hot area like E-City will do to lure potential investors away from BGC or Makati.

Man, I wish I was there and we could have this discussion over some San Miguels!

US banks lent irresponsibly to those who should not have been given loans in the first place. In the Philippines the banks are more conservative in their lending. Moreover in the Philippines, the major concentration of people are located within the metro and scarcity of land (to build on) in and around the metro together with the need/demand for housing by a rather fast growing population is proving to be a hard thing to reconcile. The high demand for low to midlevel priced housing is what many developers are trying to cater to but in the same manner there are numerous high end/priced projects within the metro competing for buyers/investors like in Fort Boni and Makati. In Fort Boni (especially in BGC), even the so-called entry level condo units are in reality pretty much considered high-end/priced units already and more often than not rather far fetch from what the majority of the masses are willing and able to pay, sad as it may sound, that's the reality (different projects for different target market). Being price prohibitive creates a kind of a weeding out effect; thus creating a niche market so to speak, where demand is coming from the more upward class of the society as well as from outside (Expats, OFW's, and even Foreigners). The recent world-wide financial crisis has affected in part sales/purchases made by that latter group which in turn has created a healthy inventory of units in the re-sale market but this is a short term phenomena. The Philippine property market is currently healthy and dynamic and the said inventory will eventually be resolved (rather quickly imho) as its absorbed by the eager buying market, given that the Philippine housing market is currently in healthier condition compared to much of US and Canada, at the moment atleast. Unlike the tanking of the US and Canadian property market during the said crisis, the Philippine market was not as severely affected; on the contrary, locations like FortBoni/BGC and Makati for example even appreciated in price despite the said effects of the world wide financial crisis. And now that the worse seems to be over and much of the developed world in recovery mode, NIC's and up-coming countries such as the Philippines will have alot of economic opportunities, such as in the BPO sector for example and where Fort Boni is in the forefront by the way. And as Fort Boni's CBD comes to fruition and it's business sector start flourishing, demand for housing (ownership/rental) will only increase exponentially and it's only then (around 7 years from now) can we really get a much better picture if there is indeed a price ceiling in the P125K-150/SQM range brought about by a glut in the Fort Boni condo market. I say No but who knows what the future will bring. Anyway here's a Fort Boni article that supports and in agreement to what I've been saying. Here's just one reason BGC prices will not only hold but more so go up in the next 5-10 years...

Fort Bonifacio fast replacing Ortigas Center as alternative CBD
BY KRISTINE JANE R. LIU
BUSINESS WORLD
http://www.bworldonline.com/BW021209/content.php?id=101

LAND PRICES in Fort Bonifacio in Taguig City are expected to continue rising as the 26-square kilometer former military base dethrones Ortigas Center in Pasig as an alternative central business district (CBD) three to five years from now, property experts said.

"Three to five years from now, Fort Bonifacio can easily dethrone Ortigas Center as the alternative business district and by that time, it will be challenging Ayala as the next major central business district," said Victor Asuncion, CB Richard Ellis Philippines director for global research and consulting.

CB Richard Ellis said it expects lease and occupancy rates in Fort Bonifacio to post the highest growth. "Lease rates in the district have been on a steady rise, with most office buildings reporting full occupancy," it said.

Its proximity to the Makati central business district and ongoing improvements in the disctrict also make it an ideal location for business process outsourcing (BPO) companies and traditional office space tenants, it added.

Mr. Asuncion based his assessment on buildings that are set to rise in the area, among these a six-star hotel that the Shangri-La Hotels and Resorts group expects to complete next year.

The 60-storey tower Shangri-La at the Fort will house 500 guest rooms and 234 apartments and is scheduled to open in 2012. Meanwhile, the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) will set up a unified trading floor in Fort Bonifacio and vacate its offices at the Ayala Tower One in Makati and the PSE Tektite in Ortigas Center.

Fort Bonifacio will also become a site of the country’s tallest building, the 66-storey skyscraper Federal Land Tower. Construction of the P20-billion project started late last year and once finished, will strip Makati’s 55-storey PBCom Tower of its title.

A number of high-end residential condominiums have been built by the country’s biggest property developers in Fort Bonifacio, among these Essensa, Serendra, Pacific Plaza and Regent Parkway and office buildings like Net Square, Bonifacio Technology Center, HSBC Building, Hanjin Philippines’ building, and the Singapore Chancery.

Leanie Sales of Colliers International said the success of the master planning in Fort Bonifacio would depend on the type of projects.

"The master planner and the consultant should create synergy in the area. They have to take into account what is already there and what could be a demand generator," she pointed out.

The property analyst noted that if the developer plans to proceed with building residential condominiums again, they have to make sure that these are different from existing ones.

Ms. Sales said she sees Fort Bonifacio has a potential not only to become a residence for the rich, but also for workers from the BPO industry.

During the American colonial period, the US government acquired a 25.78-square kilometer property of Taguig for military purposes.

After Philippine independence, the facility, known then as Fort William McKinley, became the home of the Philippine Army and later, the Philippine Navy and became Fort Bonifacio.

When Fort Bonifacio was privatized and placed under the administration of the Bases Conversion and Development Authority, the whole area was restored to Taguig.

Last edited by 3cr; February 24th, 2011 at 08:00 AM.
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Old February 24th, 2011, 05:55 AM   #304
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Developers will build. They need to in order to stay in business. When the city is already developed they will buy the old buildings for redevelopment. This is what's happening to Singapore recently. Owners of old condos are asking for higher and higher price before they will sell.
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Old February 24th, 2011, 06:52 AM   #305
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 3cr View Post
Just want to share with you guys my first hand experience while in Pinas. When I visited The BeauFort showroom around Nov. last year Tower 1 was just about sold out, atleast that's what I've been told. I don't know how long FilInvest took to achieve this but they were trying to sell me a unit in Tower 2 na because it was pretty much slim pickings in Tower 1. Now Arya's Tower 1 was just about to breakground at that time if I'm not mistaken and the units I actually inquired about were quickly picked up by other buyers/investors, atleast that's what I've been told. Now I don't know if my experience is the exception to the rule but it doesn't seem to me that these highend projects (BeauFort & Arya) are selling so very slow as to come to the conclusion that price levels in BGC have reached the ceiling already. Let's not forget much of the 1st world has just gotten out of a financial crisis and many of our overseas buyers/investors have been hurt financially as a result and it will take some time for the world market to recover and consumer confidence to come back hence it will only be that much harder and take much more time to sell highend projects than mid-priced ones. And yet despite of this we are seeing an increasing number of high-end projects rising in Fort Boni / BGC from these well experienced developers. There is a reason why they are bullish about the highend market in BGC and so let's not fool ourselves into believing a price ceiling has already been reached/realized in Fort Boni (especially BGC) at this early point. Actually it's just in it's infancy and prices have almost doubled since 2004 and only expect prices will even be that much higher in 5-7 years as the City/CBD comes to fruition. Again just my humble opinion of course. Maybe Gene/Bevepi of Robinson Land can keep us abreast of St.Regis' sales performance when it finally comes on-line. Would you bro?
Boe you have a point on this..Let's admit the fact that FBGC is becoming one of the sought after address now a days, it is a reason why some of the developers is trying to make their way inside FBGC, even small players are getting lots in Fort area. They see opportunities here, and this is also the reason why many buyers wants to buy their property in FBGC. From medium end to high-end, there are choices here, they even have BYO schemes and bare units somehow this has affected some developers in the area who offered a fully-finish units.

In the case of RLC, we have 2 projects which are RFO (MPR & FAP) while 2 are being constructed (Trion & TFR), basing it on the price per square with FAP which started at P 65,000 per sqm way back 2004 and presently reached 100K per sqm..Now compare it to our much-awaited Regis that will be launched at not less than 120K per sqm, so I am seeing this to reach as high as 150K 4 years after..

Until RLC launch it, we would know the sales velocity of this project, in my experience, all the launched project of Robinsons land have enjoyed an at least 3 to 6 might extra ordinary sales volume.

Let see how Regis performs in terms of sales. I am just worried about some factors that would affect the sales velocity when RLC has officially release every details (Pricing, payment scheme, lay-out etc) of this project
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Old February 24th, 2011, 06:56 AM   #306
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I would love to put a bet on this somehow but 5-10 years is too far away. Remember this post. If I'm wrong dinner's on me at the Fort. Drinks too!

Back to St. Regis. Is there a pic of the amenities? I'm big on amenities. Probably more important to me than the actual condo.
No finalized design yet for the amenities bro.
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Old February 24th, 2011, 02:37 PM   #307
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What about the West McKinley, McKinley Hill, North Bonifacio and other nearby (FTI, or the rumored NAIA being converted to a business district) possible developments? Will it saturate BGC?

The Philippines needs to keep getting foreign investors to come in. Otherwise, Makati, Ortigas, BGC and other business districts will still be sharing the same pie. If businesses go to BGC, Ortigas and others will just lower their rent. There has to be a solid steady supply demand for office spaces.

Again if we don't attract new investors. People who are buying for investment purpose will be diminished considerably. How many local people can really afford a 1-Bedroom with a P40k+ rent. Very soon some of these investors will unload and the secondary market will be flooded. Add to the mix the pre-selling condos in the market.

In the near future the prices in BGC will continue to come up. But it has to be an healthy increase otherwise it could burst just like what happened in the US.
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Old February 24th, 2011, 04:41 PM   #308
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Of course prices will go up short term. The developers set those. Prices won't drop till about 5-10 years from now.

Philippine banks don't seem that responsible to me. I got a loan and I have yet to show proof of my income to BDO.
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Old February 24th, 2011, 05:25 PM   #309
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All speculation of course and so we'll just have to see what the future will bring. Me, I'm staying by my forecast that in 5-7 years the BGC market will remain strong and prove P125-150K/SQM is not the price ceiling in BGC. It will break the P150K/SQM price level (for new projects) in 5-7 years from now. We'll just have to wait and see...
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Old February 24th, 2011, 05:42 PM   #310
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All speculation of course and so we'll just have to see what the future will bring. Me, I'm staying by my forecast that in 5-7 years the BGC market will remain strong and prove P125-150K/SQM is not the price ceiling in BGC. It will break the P150K/SQM price level (for new projects) in 5-7 years from now. We'll just have to wait and see...
I am with you.
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Old February 24th, 2011, 05:51 PM   #311
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I am with you on that time frame. I think prices will rise. But what goes up must come down and a flood of condos will cause that.

My bet is in 8-10 years prices drop.

We will have to remember this thread someday. LOL!
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Old February 24th, 2011, 06:22 PM   #312
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Seemingly lost in exchanges here is the continued domination of peso against the greenback and the projected P35:$1 US at the end of this year, what used to be a $2200/sqm a year or two ago would end up rising to $2800/sqm if the prediction is correct. Do you feel comfortable shelling that amount of money considering the developers' obsessive-compulsive launching of new of residential developments in MM resulting to over-saturation of available rental spaces and lower rental income due to competition and currency exchange? I don't. It doesn't help too that most condo developments in the market today are overpriced by 10K to 15K per sqm (IMHO) from the greedy developers' inflated fake market value of their projects which in turn are being sucked up by more naive and unsuspecting OFWs jumping on the real estate bandwagon happening right now in the Philippines.

I believe prices will drop in the coming years as more Pinoys gain more experience in dealing with these developers' wits and will be more knowlwedgable in dealing their interest rates from the banks to get more value for their money. It's just a matter of "when".

It's a cycle. What goes around, comes around. What goes up must come down.
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Old February 24th, 2011, 06:35 PM   #313
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there will be a glut for sure. too many projects, too many units, too little people who can afford to pay rent. but as we see the economy grows, it could be a double-edged sword. but surely, prices will drop and will regain value after the condos in inferior locations are weeded out as well as some developers who are becoming greedy. expect a glut in the secondary market for high dense inferior projects.

as for st. regis, great location. bgc is a safe bet, along with sm bay city/e-city, makati, pioneer ortigas.
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Old February 24th, 2011, 06:51 PM   #314
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Seemingly lost in exchanges here is the continued domination of peso against the greenback and the projected P35:$1 US at the end of this year, what used to be a $2200/sqm a year or two ago would end up rising to $2800/sqm if the prediction is correct. Do you feel comfortable shelling that amount of money considering the developers' obsessive-compulsive launching of new of residential developments in MM resulting to over-saturation of available rental spaces and lower rental income due to competition and currency exchange? I don't. It doesn't help too that most condo developments in the market today are overpriced by 10K to 15K per sqm (IMHO) from the greedy developers' inflated fake market value of their projects which in turn are being sucked up by more naive and unsuspecting OFWs jumping on the real estate bandwagon happening right now in the Philippines.

I believe prices will drop in the coming years as more Pinoys gain more experience in dealing with these developers' wits and will be more knowlwedgable in dealing their interest rates from the banks to get more value for their money. It's just a matter of "when".

It's a cycle. What goes around, comes around. What goes up must come down.
Well said SCUD! Seeing as you appear to be in Vancouver you know exactly what I'm talking about.
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Old February 24th, 2011, 06:55 PM   #315
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there will be a glut for sure. too many projects, too many units, too little people who can afford to pay rent. but as we see the economy grows, it could be a double-edged sword. but surely, prices will drop and will regain value after the condos in inferior locations are weeded out as well as some developers who are becoming greedy. expect a glut in the secondary market for high dense inferior projects.

as for st. regis, great location. bgc is a safe bet, along with sm bay city/e-city, makati, pioneer ortigas.
Expect a whole bunch of new projects too. If you want to look at it from a countrywide standpoint look at Cebu as well. That city is just getting started.

BGC and Makati might be somewhat immune to a crash. I don't think Ortigas is though. It's slowly becoming the #3 CBD in the Philippines. That's not a good sign.

Thanks for the info about the amenities. Why are they not finalized yet? How can you sell without showing any?
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Old February 24th, 2011, 07:04 PM   #316
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All speculation of course and so we'll just have to see what the future will bring. Me, I'm staying by my forecast that in 5-7 years the BGC market will remain strong and prove P125-150K/SQM is not the price ceiling in BGC. It will break the P150K/SQM price level (for new projects) in 5-7 years from now. We'll just have to wait and see...
If Ayala and Rockwell projects can sell at about P150k-175k/sqm then I'm sure the highend BGC condos can get up to that level (short term). right?


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Of course prices will go up short term. The developers set those. Prices won't drop till about 5-10 years from now.

Philippine banks don't seem that responsible to me. I got a loan and I have yet to show proof of my income to BDO.
You are so lucky! BDO ask tax returns, paystubs for last year. Then when they took a long time to process (3-4 months) they ask for the updated paystubs.
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Old February 24th, 2011, 07:07 PM   #317
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I agree with Scud and Nelly, prices cannot stay high forever. Eventually it will go down. But has prices in BGC reached the roof yet? I dont think so. I think we will have a few more years (5-10 years) of growth in prices before another round of correction happens.
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Old February 24th, 2011, 07:24 PM   #318
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Seemingly lost in exchanges here is the continued domination of peso against the greenback and the projected P35:$1 US at the end of this year, what used to be a $2200/sqm a year or two ago would end up rising to $2800/sqm if the prediction is correct. Do you feel comfortable shelling that amount of money considering the developers' obsessive-compulsive launching of new of residential developments in MM resulting to over-saturation of available rental spaces and lower rental income due to competition and currency exchange? I don't. It doesn't help too that most condo developments in the market today are overpriced by 10K to 15K per sqm (IMHO) from the greedy developers' inflated fake market value of their projects which in turn are being sucked up by more naive and unsuspecting OFWs jumping on the real estate bandwagon happening right now in the Philippines.

I believe prices will drop in the coming years as more Pinoys gain more experience in dealing with these developers' wits and will be more knowlwedgable in dealing their interest rates from the banks to get more value for their money. It's just a matter of "when".

It's a cycle. What goes around, comes around. What goes up must come down.
Excellent point.

That would be interesting indeed if the exchange rates were P35=$1.

Is that due to the Peso strengthening or just the US$ plummeting hard?
Would the other currencies strengthen against the US$ too?
P35=$1 would allot of the outsourcing offices in country leave?
How much would that affect OFWs and Filipinos outside the country?

If it does hit P35=$1.
I would unload properties and start buying $US. Sell high and buy low.
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Old February 24th, 2011, 07:33 PM   #319
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Well said SCUD! Seeing as you appear to be in Vancouver you know exactly what I'm talking about.
Agree with you, nelly2112. If big economies like US and Canada are not immune to real estate depreciation I don't see why the Philippines is. But cyclical depreciation of value of my property is least of my concern, the main is the PHL government lack of support for first time homebuyers and lack of protection for speculators. Here in our adopted country property virgins and first-time homebuyers can give as low as 5% downpayment and need not to pay sales tax to encourage home ownership instead of renting. If you are buying another real estate property for the purpose of making money out of it then you have to give 20% DP making sure you have the means to invest and not rely on bank loans, and discourage speculating on future rental income. That's one of the things lacking in Philippine real estate setting, the market relies heavily on developers' hand but lacking protection and support for Pinoy buyers in particular and the real estate industry in general.
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Old February 24th, 2011, 07:45 PM   #320
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Excellent point.

That would be interesting indeed if the exchange rates were P35=$1.

Is that due to the Peso strengthening or just the US$ plummeting hard?
Would the other currencies strengthen against the US$ too?
P35=$1 would allot of the outsourcing offices in country leave?
How much would that affect OFWs and Filipinos outside the country?

If it does hit P35=$1.
I would unload properties and start buying $US. Sell high and buy low.
Oh please don't pray for it

I can feel the heat already of peso's upward swing compared to what I was paying a year ago. Paying with zero interest and canadian dollar's parity with USD are my only consolations. In few months time I would be at the mercy of the PHL banks self-imposed interest rate and my spot-free credit would have to be set aside. High interest rates and stronger peso are OFWs and expats biggest enemies more than the developers' sales tags.
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