daily menu » rate the banner | guess the city | one on oneforums map | privacy policy | DMCA | news magazine | posting guidelines

Go Back   SkyscraperCity > World Development News Forums > General Urban Developments > DN Archives



Global Announcement

As a general reminder, please respect others and respect copyrights. Go here to familiarize yourself with our posting policy.


Reply

 
Thread Tools
Old June 5th, 2015, 11:06 PM   #9281
Pansori
planquadrat
 
Pansori's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: London - Vilnius
Posts: 9,956
Likes (Received): 6859

Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
It is incorrect to assume a city-wide GDP indicator is a sufficient gauge for importance. Shenzhen approaching Hong Kong's GDP total doesn't mean it is more internationally important or cosmopolitan. It also doesn't mean it is more economically important as the financial markets in Shenzhen are still small relative to Shanghai, the destined financial hub for China.
Of course not. But GDP it is one of the core indicators. There are many indicators including financial and legal services, transportation, manufacturing etc. I am not suggesting that Shenzhen is more important than Hong Kong because its GDP will overtake HK in the near future. I'm saying that relative importance of Hong Kong will be in decline whereas relative importance of Shenzhen will increase in the long term.


Quote:
A rising Shenzhen doesn't mean Hong Kong's importance will be diminished. Shenzhen serves a domestic purpose, and Hong Kong does not. You are comparing apples to oranges. Look at how few international flights they have even today!
Much will depend on the success/failure of Qianhai FTZ. If it really goes full steam ahead there is a good chance Hong Kong's role might go down. It also depends on what role Hong Kong will play in it as it will have to play some kind of role. A bit too early to say but the next 10 years should give an idea about the trends.
Pansori no está en línea   Reply With Quote

Sponsored Links
Old June 6th, 2015, 06:23 AM   #9282
hkskyline
Hong Kong
 
hkskyline's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 86,464
Likes (Received): 17790

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
Of course not. But GDP it is one of the core indicators. There are many indicators including financial and legal services, transportation, manufacturing etc. I am not suggesting that Shenzhen is more important than Hong Kong because its GDP will overtake HK in the near future. I'm saying that relative importance of Hong Kong will be in decline whereas relative importance of Shenzhen will increase in the long term.




Much will depend on the success/failure of Qianhai FTZ. If it really goes full steam ahead there is a good chance Hong Kong's role might go down. It also depends on what role Hong Kong will play in it as it will have to play some kind of role. A bit too early to say but the next 10 years should give an idea about the trends.
I don't think you understand the role of Shenzhen in the eyes of Beijing. While Shenzhen was first designed to test capitalism, being so close to Hong Kong, with 1 of the country's 2 stock exchanges, that role has now shifted to Shanghai, where they have done great success. Note Shanghai's FTZ developments have reached far beyond what anyone could have imagined even 5 years ago, way beyond what Shenzhen has gotten from Beijing.

Qianhai is a far more tepid project than Shanghai. In fact, Qianhai is more likely going to be a cheap back office for Hong Kong with its cheap real estate, rather than a real competitor. Cross-border benefits (the CEPA free trade agreements) have been liberally given to Hong Kong over the years, so management ranks stay in Hong Kong while the JVs and their friends run onshore in China. Even after RMB becomes fully convertible in the near future, the focus will be to grow the onshore China business out of Shanghai. So Hong Kong's financial industry will not relocate to Qianhai, but the cheap back office jobs that would have gone to India or the Philippines anyway would.

So as Beijing's support relatively wanes as all eyes focus on Shanghai, Shenzhen has to transform and move away from competing with Hong Kong to developing industries that Hong Kong doesn't care much about, such as science and technology - a more complementary role.
__________________
Hong Kong Photo Gallery - Click Here for the Hong Kong Galleries

World Photo Gallery - | St. Petersburg, Russia | Pyongyang | Tokyo | Istanbul | Dubai | Shanghai | Mumbai | Bangkok | Sydney

New York, London, Prague, Iceland, Rocky Mountains, Angkor Wat, Sri Lanka, Poland, Myanmar, and much more!

Last edited by hkskyline; June 6th, 2015 at 06:29 AM.
hkskyline no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old June 6th, 2015, 01:21 PM   #9283
Pansori
planquadrat
 
Pansori's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: London - Vilnius
Posts: 9,956
Likes (Received): 6859

What you're saying is that Hong Kong's relative importance is likely to wane in favor of Shanghai in finance. Fair enough


However Shenzhen's relative importance overall (not just finance) will inevitably go up compared to Hong Kong. That doesn't change the fundamental idea that relative overall importance of Hong Kong to both China and the world will remain on a downward trend whereas Shenzhen (as well as other first tier cities in the Mainland) will remain on the upward trend. You simply cannot ignore the numbers. Yes this is because those cities are just so huge but it doesn't change the very fact.

Mind you I'm talking of overall importance of cities not just financial sector. If we stuck with finance alone Frankfurt or Zurich is bigger than Beijing itself.
Pansori no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old June 6th, 2015, 01:42 PM   #9284
Eroha
Registered User
 
Eroha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 2,751
Likes (Received): 7014



www.gaoloumi.com
__________________

Ivanator, Zaz965, CP11, Wrocer, DJaCoNdA and 6 others liked this post
Eroha no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old June 6th, 2015, 03:22 PM   #9285
hkskyline
Hong Kong
 
hkskyline's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 86,464
Likes (Received): 17790

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
What you're saying is that Hong Kong's relative importance is likely to wane in favor of Shanghai in finance. Fair enough


However Shenzhen's relative importance overall (not just finance) will inevitably go up compared to Hong Kong. That doesn't change the fundamental idea that relative overall importance of Hong Kong to both China and the world will remain on a downward trend whereas Shenzhen (as well as other first tier cities in the Mainland) will remain on the upward trend. You simply cannot ignore the numbers. Yes this is because those cities are just so huge but it doesn't change the very fact.

Mind you I'm talking of overall importance of cities not just financial sector. If we stuck with finance alone Frankfurt or Zurich is bigger than Beijing itself.
Hong Kong will continue to grow but Shanghai will grow faster. With capital controls still in place, Shanghai still has a long way to go to diminish Hong Kong's influence. The ultimate state that Beijing is hoping for is to have healthy inflows and outflows between the domestic economy and the international one. This will benefit both Shanghai and Hong Kong. In fact, once capital controls are loosened, both Shanghai and Hong Kong should feature similar importance, while we will see other regional centres such as Tokyo and Singapore lose their relative importance significantly.

Beijing is clearly aware of the need to internationalize China's financial markets. That's why they've asked Hong Kong to help, such as the current stock connect program.

Looking at GDP alone won't tell you this dynamic, especially when you are misinterpreting the numbers.

For large and expensive cities such as Shanghai and Hong Kong, finance is and will drive the local economy. This is not a surprise. We see similar cases in London and New York. These cities are simply too expensive to specialize is lower value-add.
__________________
Hong Kong Photo Gallery - Click Here for the Hong Kong Galleries

World Photo Gallery - | St. Petersburg, Russia | Pyongyang | Tokyo | Istanbul | Dubai | Shanghai | Mumbai | Bangkok | Sydney

New York, London, Prague, Iceland, Rocky Mountains, Angkor Wat, Sri Lanka, Poland, Myanmar, and much more!
hkskyline no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old June 6th, 2015, 04:48 PM   #9286
luci203
Registered User
 
luci203's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 4,129
Likes (Received): 1202

Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
For large and expensive cities such as Shanghai and Hong Kong, finance is and will drive the local economy. This is not a surprise. We see similar cases in London and New York. These cities are simply too expensive to specialize is lower value-add.
Is still a big difference between Shanghai and Hong Kong.

In HK, main revenues come from financial, commerce and service industries, while Shanghai is still a industrial powerhouse.

Shanghai has the world's busiest container port, China's largest steelmaker Baosteel Group, China's largest shipbuilding base -- Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding Group, The Shanghai-based SAIC Motor is one of the three largest automotive corporations in China.

HK is limited by land, so no space to build giant industrial zones, while Shanghai is big enough to host both blue collar and white collar workers. Don't see 20mill working all in finance. (even in New York, is Manhattan, the rest (Brooklyn, Queens, Bronx) are more "down to earth" areas.

From wiki, but I don't think is totally wrong (like many data there)

Labour force by occupation in Hong Kong:

manufacturing (6.5%),
construction (2.1%),
wholesale and retail trade, restaurants, and hotels (43.3%),
financing, insurance, and real estate (20.7%),
transport and communications (7.8%),
community and social services (19.5%)
__________________
After Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says W T F...

Last edited by luci203; June 6th, 2015 at 05:03 PM.
luci203 no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old June 6th, 2015, 06:21 PM   #9287
Eroha
Registered User
 
Eroha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 2,751
Likes (Received): 7014









www.gaoloumi.com
__________________

Last edited by Eroha; June 6th, 2015 at 06:47 PM.
Eroha no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old June 7th, 2015, 06:30 AM   #9288
hkskyline
Hong Kong
 
hkskyline's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 86,464
Likes (Received): 17790

Quote:
Originally Posted by luci203 View Post
Is still a big difference between Shanghai and Hong Kong.

In HK, main revenues come from financial, commerce and service industries, while Shanghai is still a industrial powerhouse.

Shanghai has the world's busiest container port, China's largest steelmaker Baosteel Group, China's largest shipbuilding base -- Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding Group, The Shanghai-based SAIC Motor is one of the three largest automotive corporations in China.

HK is limited by land, so no space to build giant industrial zones, while Shanghai is big enough to host both blue collar and white collar workers. Don't see 20mill working all in finance. (even in New York, is Manhattan, the rest (Brooklyn, Queens, Bronx) are more "down to earth" areas.

From wiki, but I don't think is totally wrong (like many data there)

Labour force by occupation in Hong Kong:

manufacturing (6.5%),
construction (2.1%),
wholesale and retail trade, restaurants, and hotels (43.3%),
financing, insurance, and real estate (20.7%),
transport and communications (7.8%),
community and social services (19.5%)
Deng Xiaopeng destined Shanghai to be a financial centre that will drive its modern economy : http://www.shanghaidaily.com/busines.../shdaily.shtml

Looking at the numbers, services account for 62% of GDP : http://china-trade-research.hktdc.co...0/1X06BVOR.htm

Also note the decline of industrial production as a % of GDP over time :



This is not surprising. An expensive city would not be an ideal place for low value-add. This would also apply to Shenzhen, which looks to technology and other services industries to power its growth.
__________________
Hong Kong Photo Gallery - Click Here for the Hong Kong Galleries

World Photo Gallery - | St. Petersburg, Russia | Pyongyang | Tokyo | Istanbul | Dubai | Shanghai | Mumbai | Bangkok | Sydney

New York, London, Prague, Iceland, Rocky Mountains, Angkor Wat, Sri Lanka, Poland, Myanmar, and much more!
hkskyline no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old June 7th, 2015, 06:43 AM   #9289
leoisme
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 5
Likes (Received): 8

As a mainlander working in HK who has been following this forum for a long time, I am afraid your view on Chinese cities in terms geographical economy development is a bit outdated. In fact, if you are familiar with the financial market in Mainland these years, Beijing and Shenzhen have been competing fiercely with Shanghai in terms of financial resources. I have to say Beijing has been the biggest winner, with the new OTC board of stock exchange established. In some sense, Beijing is the de facto financial center in China, but not Shanghai, with its strongest link to "new economy" like Internet/tech companies and its inherited advantage as a power center. The financial hub for investment banking, including M&A/VC/PE etc. is always Beijing but not Shanghai.

The FTZ development in Shanghai, if not a failure, is absolutely NOT a success. This is why Chinese government was pushing forward more FTZ zones (Tianjin, Fujian and Guangdong) in the hope that they can do better than Shanghai or force Shanghai to do better. In fact, the last few years were the "dark age" for Shanghai, in terms of its economic/financial development. The data can tell that in absolute value, Shanghai's financial industry is caught up by Beijing and Shenzhen, especially after OTC Board in Bejing and ChiNext in Shenzhen were opened.

Talking about Shenzhen, many HongKongers still maintain the mentality to view this neighbor as its "back garden", processing factories or place to purchase cheap products or massages, just like many HK property developers never truly expand in this city, unlike what they did in other parts of China. The Qianhai FTZ is nothing but a platform like FTZ in other places to get favorable polices and attentions from Central government and it has been proved well in China's recent history that Shenzhen is mostly likely the place where it can utilizie the polices better than elsewhere, even though Shanghai is more favored. In my opinion, Qianhai's development is quite uncertain at this moment and its focus is more on logistics/trade but not on finance. The finance center in SZ is always in Futian CBD, where the stock exchange and major banks/fund house locate.

Shenzhen's economic strength is not in Qianhai too, at least not yet, but lies in its culture and institutions that provide ground and finance to those new born private companies, some of which have already become world-class. Although it does not get as much blessings from Central government as Beijing or Shanghai, it is still doing much better than other Chinese cities including HK. Shenzhen's stock market size is very close to Shanghai and its stock exchange is considered to be more ambitious and competitive for decades. This is why Shanghai is now planing to open up a new board to attract smaller firms to be listed there, as they are losing the battle against Shenzhen and Beijing in attracting smaller firms (mostly privately owned) for listing by focusing too much on SOEs/blue chips previously. Still, Shanghai has great potential as a country-wide financial hub, especially considering all the futures/derivatives/bond markets are designated there, which gives it special privilege against other cities, including Hong Kong.

For Hong Kong, I think the problem is, it is losing bargaining power or competitiveness with top tier Mainland cities and the central government, economically and politically. Size does matter here. Ten years from now, I guess Hong Kong's GDP will rank about #7 or #8 in China, which is definitely not a good sign for HK to maintain its' status in China or globally. If HK chooses to stand alone (with not much integration to China or Shenzhen), its relative importance as a hub to enter China is sure going down when China further loosen its grip on financial/economic control (which is happening). As a financial hub, it needs to work much harder to maintain its current status, especially when other cities in China are charging forward in light speed while HK is losing the momentum. You can probably tell this by simply comparing HK stock market's size and turnover with other major markets in the region. The situation is not getting better when China's best private firms choose to list in Shenzhen/Shanghai/Beijing instead of HK. When those Chinese firms listed in US come back, they are unlikely to go to HK for domestic listing either.

The city-wide competition in China is similar to its provincial competition, which is a kind of strategy adopted by the Central government to boost efficiency and growth. I think the ambition of a city can be inferred from its skyscraper plan to some extent.


Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
I don't think you understand the role of Shenzhen in the eyes of Beijing. While Shenzhen was first designed to test capitalism, being so close to Hong Kong, with 1 of the country's 2 stock exchanges, that role has now shifted to Shanghai, where they have done great success. Note Shanghai's FTZ developments have reached far beyond what anyone could have imagined even 5 years ago, way beyond what Shenzhen has gotten from Beijing.

Qianhai is a far more tepid project than Shanghai. In fact, Qianhai is more likely going to be a cheap back office for Hong Kong with its cheap real estate, rather than a real competitor. Cross-border benefits (the CEPA free trade agreements) have been liberally given to Hong Kong over the years, so management ranks stay in Hong Kong while the JVs and their friends run onshore in China. Even after RMB becomes fully convertible in the near future, the focus will be to grow the onshore China business out of Shanghai. So Hong Kong's financial industry will not relocate to Qianhai, but the cheap back office jobs that would have gone to India or the Philippines anyway would.

So as Beijing's support relatively wanes as all eyes focus on Shanghai, Shenzhen has to transform and move away from competing with Hong Kong to developing industries that Hong Kong doesn't care much about, such as science and technology - a more complementary role.
__________________
leoisme no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old June 7th, 2015, 06:53 AM   #9290
Pansori
planquadrat
 
Pansori's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: London - Vilnius
Posts: 9,956
Likes (Received): 6859


Good to see some quality insight based on actual knowledge rather than prejudice or worn out cliches as it seems to happen way too often.
Pansori no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old June 7th, 2015, 12:16 PM   #9291
Eroha
Registered User
 
Eroha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 2,751
Likes (Received): 7014



www.gaoloumi.com
__________________
Eroha no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old June 7th, 2015, 03:28 PM   #9292
Wrocer
super&megatalls fan
 
Wrocer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 1,617
Likes (Received): 748

When is it planned to be topped out and when is going to be completed ?
__________________
Nawiązując do niesprawiedliwych i dziwacznych interpretacji mojej aktywności na forum pragnę zapewnić wszystkich zainteresowanych, że pisuję tu nie na złość komukolwiek, a mój głos w dyskusji wynika z zainteresowania inwestycjami głównie we Wrocławiu, a także z chęci pozyskania i przekazania informacji/opinii z postępów inwestycji w licznych interesujących mnie wątkach i nie ma to nic wspólnego ze spamowaniem/trollowaniem, jak to niektórzy próbują mi zarzucić. Jeżeli ktoś nie toleruje poglądów innych (moich), naprawdę nie musi czytać moich postów.
Wrocer no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old June 7th, 2015, 04:24 PM   #9293
Hudson11
Stuck on the Cross Bronx
 
Hudson11's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: The Empire State
Posts: 9,515
Likes (Received): 22514

remarkable progress in 4 days. I'm surprised - you would think they would take extra time due to the intricacy of the crown, especially after the delay which saw possible changes to the crown's design.

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpo...postcount=9247
Hudson11 no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old June 7th, 2015, 06:00 PM   #9294
hkskyline
Hong Kong
 
hkskyline's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 86,464
Likes (Received): 17790

Quote:
Originally Posted by leoisme View Post
As a mainlander working in HK who has been following this forum for a long time, I am afraid your view on Chinese cities in terms geographical economy development is a bit outdated. In fact, if you are familiar with the financial market in Mainland these years, Beijing and Shenzhen have been competing fiercely with Shanghai in terms of financial resources. I have to say Beijing has been the biggest winner, with the new OTC board of stock exchange established. In some sense, Beijing is the de facto financial center in China, but not Shanghai, with its strongest link to "new economy" like Internet/tech companies and its inherited advantage as a power center. The financial hub for investment banking, including M&A/VC/PE etc. is always Beijing but not Shanghai.

The FTZ development in Shanghai, if not a failure, is absolutely NOT a success. This is why Chinese government was pushing forward more FTZ zones (Tianjin, Fujian and Guangdong) in the hope that they can do better than Shanghai or force Shanghai to do better. In fact, the last few years were the "dark age" for Shanghai, in terms of its economic/financial development. The data can tell that in absolute value, Shanghai's financial industry is caught up by Beijing and Shenzhen, especially after OTC Board in Bejing and ChiNext in Shenzhen were opened.

Talking about Shenzhen, many HongKongers still maintain the mentality to view this neighbor as its "back garden", processing factories or place to purchase cheap products or massages, just like many HK property developers never truly expand in this city, unlike what they did in other parts of China. The Qianhai FTZ is nothing but a platform like FTZ in other places to get favorable polices and attentions from Central government and it has been proved well in China's recent history that Shenzhen is mostly likely the place where it can utilizie the polices better than elsewhere, even though Shanghai is more favored. In my opinion, Qianhai's development is quite uncertain at this moment and its focus is more on logistics/trade but not on finance. The finance center in SZ is always in Futian CBD, where the stock exchange and major banks/fund house locate.

Shenzhen's economic strength is not in Qianhai too, at least not yet, but lies in its culture and institutions that provide ground and finance to those new born private companies, some of which have already become world-class. Although it does not get as much blessings from Central government as Beijing or Shanghai, it is still doing much better than other Chinese cities including HK. Shenzhen's stock market size is very close to Shanghai and its stock exchange is considered to be more ambitious and competitive for decades. This is why Shanghai is now planing to open up a new board to attract smaller firms to be listed there, as they are losing the battle against Shenzhen and Beijing in attracting smaller firms (mostly privately owned) for listing by focusing too much on SOEs/blue chips previously. Still, Shanghai has great potential as a country-wide financial hub, especially considering all the futures/derivatives/bond markets are designated there, which gives it special privilege against other cities, including Hong Kong.

For Hong Kong, I think the problem is, it is losing bargaining power or competitiveness with top tier Mainland cities and the central government, economically and politically. Size does matter here. Ten years from now, I guess Hong Kong's GDP will rank about #7 or #8 in China, which is definitely not a good sign for HK to maintain its' status in China or globally. If HK chooses to stand alone (with not much integration to China or Shenzhen), its relative importance as a hub to enter China is sure going down when China further loosen its grip on financial/economic control (which is happening). As a financial hub, it needs to work much harder to maintain its current status, especially when other cities in China are charging forward in light speed while HK is losing the momentum. You can probably tell this by simply comparing HK stock market's size and turnover with other major markets in the region. The situation is not getting better when China's best private firms choose to list in Shenzhen/Shanghai/Beijing instead of HK. When those Chinese firms listed in US come back, they are unlikely to go to HK for domestic listing either.

The city-wide competition in China is similar to its provincial competition, which is a kind of strategy adopted by the Central government to boost efficiency and growth. I think the ambition of a city can be inferred from its skyscraper plan to some extent.
The world of banking is much larger than investment banking. Besides, once the deal is approved, execution happens at the stock exchange in either Shanghai or Shenzhen. So is Beijing really the hub for investment banking when there is no stock exchange to execute the transaction? How do you gauge Beijing to be the financial hub for investment banking in China?

Liberation of the RMB in the FTZ is a tremendous step forward for RMB's internationalization. You certainly cannot do that kind of stuff elsewhere in the country. Other cities have tried their own FTZs over the years, which offers healthy competition but the biggest policy win has taken place in Shanghai. Shanghai FTZ is the only place in the country to do cross-border RMB pooling, a huge step in internationalization of the currency.

China's largest stock exchange is in Shanghai. Note that Beijing has not dared to set up a rival exchange to challenge Shanghai, but to go for a niche like an OTC board to avoid directly competing with Shanghai. I would think Shenzhen should be more concerned with Beijing's new exchange. I don't think anyone will challenge the Shanghai Stock Exchange and make it move either. In terms of market cap, Shanghai is still 58% bigger than Shenzhen as of end March.

I'm not at all surprised the central government would want to set up multiple financial centres across the country and testing out reforms in different places and decentralizing power. However, you will also see that the other locations are not getting core projects, which are reserved for Shanghai. It is very clear that policy developments will not likely make Shanghai less of China's financial hub and moving that to Beijing, Shenzhen, or elsewhere. The regulators will always sit in Beijing, but execution will not likely be. So is Beijing really the centre of power in China's financial industry?

Hong Kong is well aware Shenzhen is no longer a cheap factory for the world. Many of the factories in the delta are owned and operated by Hong Kong investors, so your misconception is outdated. We all know the delta is too expensive for this sort of stuff nowadays, and Shenzhen realizes this. We know they are going for more niche industries to not directly compete with Hong Kong, such as technology. They are not the main board for China's largest corporates, but rather chase after the more innovative and edgy companies, which are a bit more risky, a bit smaller, and probably not so suitable to get listed in the large board in Shanghai.

GDP for a city is a poor indicator of influence. By that logic, Geneva would be wiped off the map but reality is a lot different. Hong Kong is a small city relative to many other Chinese cities, so I am not at all surprised overall GDP would be bigger elsewhere, but that doesn't mean the likes of other large cities such as Chongqing would be more influential than Hong Kong. That is a logical fallacy. Hong Kong's role is changing as China modernizes. They look to us to execute their reforms successfully, and see us as a good testing ground that can support their further drive to international markets.

We all know China's stock market is dominated by small investors who trade on momentum, hence volatility spikes. This is not a healthy sign, as most developed markets have a much larger institutional client base, so I don't see how larger turnover in Shanghai and Shenzhen makes them any better. They went through a nasty crash in 2008 from this sort of "wild west" trading. In fact, today's highs still have not eclipsed the peak back then, after which investors have lost confidence in China's stock markets for a long time. It would take time, education, and a few more lessons before trading behaviour can modernize. Add to that more liberalization of securities markets, including allowing overseas investors in, to build a more healthy percentage of institutionals.
__________________
Hong Kong Photo Gallery - Click Here for the Hong Kong Galleries

World Photo Gallery - | St. Petersburg, Russia | Pyongyang | Tokyo | Istanbul | Dubai | Shanghai | Mumbai | Bangkok | Sydney

New York, London, Prague, Iceland, Rocky Mountains, Angkor Wat, Sri Lanka, Poland, Myanmar, and much more!

FM 2258 liked this post
hkskyline no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old June 8th, 2015, 04:28 PM   #9295
snapdragon
Registered User
 
snapdragon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: mumbai
Posts: 1,112
Likes (Received): 368

Quote:
Originally Posted by leoisme View Post
As a mainlander working in HK who has been following this forum for a long time, I am afraid your view on Chinese cities in terms geographical economy development is a bit outdated. In fact, if you are familiar with the financial market in Mainland these years, Beijing and Shenzhen have been competing fiercely with Shanghai in terms of financial resources. I have to say Beijing has been the biggest winner, with the new OTC board of stock exchange established. In some sense, Beijing is the de facto financial center in China, but not Shanghai, with its strongest link to "new economy" like Internet/tech companies and its inherited advantage as a power center. The financial hub for investment banking, including M&A/VC/PE etc. is always Beijing but not Shanghai.

The FTZ development in Shanghai, if not a failure, is absolutely NOT a success. This is why Chinese government was pushing forward more FTZ zones (Tianjin, Fujian and Guangdong) in the hope that they can do better than Shanghai or force Shanghai to do better. In fact, the last few years were the "dark age" for Shanghai, in terms of its economic/financial development. The data can tell that in absolute value, Shanghai's financial industry is caught up by Beijing and Shenzhen, especially after OTC Board in Bejing and ChiNext in Shenzhen were opened.

Talking about Shenzhen, many HongKongers still maintain the mentality to view this neighbor as its "back garden", processing factories or place to purchase cheap products or massages, just like many HK property developers never truly expand in this city, unlike what they did in other parts of China. The Qianhai FTZ is nothing but a platform like FTZ in other places to get favorable polices and attentions from Central government and it has been proved well in China's recent history that Shenzhen is mostly likely the place where it can utilizie the polices better than elsewhere, even though Shanghai is more favored. In my opinion, Qianhai's development is quite uncertain at this moment and its focus is more on logistics/trade but not on finance. The finance center in SZ is always in Futian CBD, where the stock exchange and major banks/fund house locate.

Shenzhen's economic strength is not in Qianhai too, at least not yet, but lies in its culture and institutions that provide ground and finance to those new born private companies, some of which have already become world-class. Although it does not get as much blessings from Central government as Beijing or Shanghai, it is still doing much better than other Chinese cities including HK. Shenzhen's stock market size is very close to Shanghai and its stock exchange is considered to be more ambitious and competitive for decades. This is why Shanghai is now planing to open up a new board to attract smaller firms to be listed there, as they are losing the battle against Shenzhen and Beijing in attracting smaller firms (mostly privately owned) for listing by focusing too much on SOEs/blue chips previously. Still, Shanghai has great potential as a country-wide financial hub, especially considering all the futures/derivatives/bond markets are designated there, which gives it special privilege against other cities, including Hong Kong.

For Hong Kong, I think the problem is, it is losing bargaining power or competitiveness with top tier Mainland cities and the central government, economically and politically. Size does matter here. Ten years from now, I guess Hong Kong's GDP will rank about #7 or #8 in China, which is definitely not a good sign for HK to maintain its' status in China or globally. If HK chooses to stand alone (with not much integration to China or Shenzhen), its relative importance as a hub to enter China is sure going down when China further loosen its grip on financial/economic control (which is happening). As a financial hub, it needs to work much harder to maintain its current status, especially when other cities in China are charging forward in light speed while HK is losing the momentum. You can probably tell this by simply comparing HK stock market's size and turnover with other major markets in the region. The situation is not getting better when China's best private firms choose to list in Shenzhen/Shanghai/Beijing instead of HK. When those Chinese firms listed in US come back, they are unlikely to go to HK for domestic listing either.

The city-wide competition in China is similar to its provincial competition, which is a kind of strategy adopted by the Central government to boost efficiency and growth. I think the ambition of a city can be inferred from its skyscraper plan to some extent.


Well i agree with most things you have said except for the part when i doubt the intention of the central government. Quite clearly the central government is very happy with shenzhen playing a support role to hong kong and they desparately want Hong Kong take the financial capital role. I think its a long term strategy to get hong kong integrated into the chinese society. Though I personally feel the best way to integrate Hong Kong into mainland is by compmletely neglecting and developing Shezhen into a much bigger centre . That would force hong kongers to rush to mainland and not see it as a financial backoffice . Which it is all set to become.
__________________
http://kitchen-nn.ru/2a5e6

BarbaricManchurian liked this post
snapdragon no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old June 8th, 2015, 04:46 PM   #9296
lowenmeister
Registered User
 
lowenmeister's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 816
Likes (Received): 3420

originally posted on gaoloumi by ghhhjjkkkk


__________________
lowenmeister no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old June 8th, 2015, 04:51 PM   #9297
Ch.W
Registered User
 
Ch.W's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Heinsberg - near Cologne
Posts: 1,780
Likes (Received): 5179

The last two pictures are breathtaking
Btw the crown seems to be build with more speed now.
__________________

onewtclover, Wrocer, Federation2014 liked this post
Ch.W no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old June 8th, 2015, 04:56 PM   #9298
FM 2258
Registered User
 
FM 2258's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Austin
Posts: 5,436
Likes (Received): 611

Great discussion about the economics of Shenzhen! Love the last picture update. The angle of the current top construction looks close to the original design. If they're not going to do the spire I hope they just keep the original design without the spire. With the current angles I cannot tell if my eyes trick me or the angles are not the same:


Last edited by FM 2258; June 8th, 2015 at 05:04 PM.
FM 2258 no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old June 8th, 2015, 09:05 PM   #9299
lowenmeister
Registered User
 
lowenmeister's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 816
Likes (Received): 3420

originally posted on gaoloumi by 1788111
__________________

Ch.W, Wrocer, CP11, Eroha, DJaCoNdA and 1 others liked this post
lowenmeister no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old June 9th, 2015, 01:02 AM   #9300
Wrocer
super&megatalls fan
 
Wrocer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 1,617
Likes (Received): 748

Quote:
Originally Posted by FM 2258 View Post
Great discussion about the economics of Shenzhen! Love the last picture update. The angle of the current top construction looks close to the original design. If they're not going to do the spire I hope they just keep the original design without the spire. With the current angles I cannot tell if my eyes trick me or the angles are not the same:

Angles seems to be a little different, but I think it won't destroy final effect, however I would prefer the primary project with the spire
__________________
Nawiązując do niesprawiedliwych i dziwacznych interpretacji mojej aktywności na forum pragnę zapewnić wszystkich zainteresowanych, że pisuję tu nie na złość komukolwiek, a mój głos w dyskusji wynika z zainteresowania inwestycjami głównie we Wrocławiu, a także z chęci pozyskania i przekazania informacji/opinii z postępów inwestycji w licznych interesujących mnie wątkach i nie ma to nic wspólnego ze spamowaniem/trollowaniem, jak to niektórzy próbują mi zarzucić. Jeżeli ktoś nie toleruje poglądów innych (moich), naprawdę nie musi czytać moich postów.

Pansori, TowerVerre:), AlexDemens liked this post
Wrocer no está en línea   Reply With Quote


Reply

Tags
futian district, pafc, ping an finance center, shenzhen, supertall

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Related topics on SkyscraperCity


All times are GMT +2. The time now is 12:22 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11 Beta 4
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Feedback Buttons provided by Advanced Post Thanks / Like (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2017 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.

vBulletin Optimisation provided by vB Optimise (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2017 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.

SkyscraperCity ☆ In Urbanity We trust ☆ about us | privacy policy | DMCA policy

Hosted by Blacksun, dedicated to this site too!
Forum server management by DaiTengu