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Old January 21st, 2016, 12:43 AM   #1
droneriot
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Dubai, Shenzen, New York City - who's next to boom?

Dubai had been making major headlines in supertalls for quite a while, before the global financial crisis there were projects after projects. After its sudden downturn, all the eyes were on Shenzen, with new threads popping up in proposed supertalls seemingly weekly. That seems to have died down, a little as well. But for a while now the undisputed (except by Chicagoans) home of skyscrapers has been experiencing a massive boom, with new proposals and construction popping up at a jaw dropping rate.

Regardless of how well the NYC boom is going to hold up, what city do you think is most realistic to experience a boom of supertalls next?

For me, there are two things I noticed. First, apparently completely off the radar of most people, including mine for the most part, there actually seem to be quite a few supertall proposals in Kuala Lumpur. If all of these are built, that would actually be quite an impressive number of supertalls coming up. Second, those of us who check the skyscrapers forum in world development news probably all noticed that Jakarta absolutely dominates the place. Matter of time before it starts to go above 300m on a massive scale?
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Old January 21st, 2016, 01:00 AM   #2
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One thing to note is that there are many more posters from SEA than from China, which skews our perspective on the relative "boom" of each region. Many projects in Chinese cities get no updates on SSC.
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Old January 21st, 2016, 05:29 PM   #3
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Quote:
Second, those of us who check the skyscrapers forum in world development news probably all noticed that Jakarta absolutely dominates the place. Matter of time before it starts to go above 300m on a massive scale?
I have counted the number of projects and it turns out Jakarta has around 35-36 skyscrapers either u/c, prep, app or proposed. Not sure how it is dominating that section.
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Old January 21st, 2016, 06:12 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by droneriot View Post
Dubai had been making major headlines in supertalls for quite a while, before the global financial crisis there were projects after projects. After its sudden downturn, all the eyes were on Shenzen, with new threads popping up in proposed supertalls seemingly weekly. That seems to have died down, a little as well. But for a while now the undisputed (except by Chicagoans) home of skyscrapers has been experiencing a massive boom, with new proposals and construction popping up at a jaw dropping rate.

Regardless of how well the NYC boom is going to hold up, what city do you think is most realistic to experience a boom of supertalls next?

For me, there are two things I noticed. First, apparently completely off the radar of most people, including mine for the most part, there actually seem to be quite a few supertall proposals in Kuala Lumpur. If all of these are built, that would actually be quite an impressive number of supertalls coming up. Second, those of us who check the skyscrapers forum in world development news probably all noticed that Jakarta absolutely dominates the place. Matter of time before it starts to go above 300m on a massive scale?
Considering the skyscraper was invented in Chicago, its pretty easy to dispute the last sentence of your first paragraph, Chicagoan or not.
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Old January 21st, 2016, 06:34 PM   #5
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Here's the cities with the most skyscrapers (150m+) U/C, info from CTBUH.

Shenyang 65
Shenzhen 47
Mumbai 45
Chongqing 43
New York 37
Chengdu 29
Jakarta 26
Toronto 26
Dubai 23
Tianjin 23
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Old January 21st, 2016, 06:41 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pals_RGB View Post
I have counted the number of projects and it turns out Jakarta has around 35-36 skyscrapers either u/c, prep, app or proposed. Not sure how it is dominating that section.
Skyscapercity has a very active SEA community so updates are skewed towards those areas. My money is on Shenzhen even with CTBUH missing skyscrapers that are U/C it really dominates the U/C list.
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Old January 21st, 2016, 08:46 PM   #7
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Shenzhen currently has 59,200m+ tower completed or to according to gaoloumi,Considering construction has just begun on Qianhai and Shenwan station and that the luohu government is looking to accelerate redevelopment in that district this year we might see a massive increase in skyscrapers there too(caiwuwei redevelopment,china resources Hubei village redevelopment,Luohu hotel redevelopment )

two contenders are Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur, I think Jakarta will come out on top in the long run because its metro population is 4 times larger(Jakarta 30 million+ to Kuala Lumpurs 7 million),and growing faster too and will thus require a larger skyline.
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Old January 21st, 2016, 08:50 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheIllinoisan View Post
Considering the skyscraper was invented in Chicago, its pretty easy to dispute the last sentence of your first paragraph, Chicagoan or not.
The Modern Skyscraper yes
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Old January 21st, 2016, 08:55 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by ed500 View Post
Here's the cities with the most skyscrapers (150m+) U/C, info from CTBUH.

Shenyang 65
Shenzhen 47
Mumbai 45
Chongqing 43
New York 37
Chengdu 29
Jakarta 26
Toronto 26
Dubai 23
Tianjin 23
Mumbai alone has 180+ buildings currently u/c whose height are 150m+.

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/forumdisplay.php?f=1234
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Old January 22nd, 2016, 06:28 AM   #10
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Mexico City has 29 +150m U/C or Prep and 2 supertalls in Prep and another one in proposal (Construction to begin this year)
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Old January 23rd, 2016, 02:22 AM   #11
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Dubai will remain the leading city of supertalls in the future.
There are currently 18 completed supertalls in Dubai and 18 further are either proposed, topped out or under construction. This adds up to a number of 36 supertalls by 2025.

In comparison: New York has currently 7 completed supertalls. Even though 21 more are proposed or under construction, the city will not beat Dubai with a total amount of 28 supertalls by 2025.
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Old January 23rd, 2016, 02:55 PM   #12
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^ Yes, Dubai will stay ahead re: #supertalls.

New York supertalls:

Completed: 7
Under construction: 9
On hold: 1
In Prep: 5
Proposed: ~20

So my guess is 25 - 30 supertalls by 2025, depending on further demand and U.S. economy.
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Old January 23rd, 2016, 07:52 PM   #13
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Shenzhen could beat Dubai in supertalls in the future - but only if it can keep it's momentum. According to zOrgs list Shenzhen had 82 proposed supertalls in 2014.
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Old January 24th, 2016, 12:06 PM   #14
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Data from CTBUH :






source: The Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/year-in-review/2015

I think, Jakarta will still be in the top rankings for 2016 in terms of completion of the buildings above 200 meters. Here is a list of skyscraper projects 200+ meter will be completed in 2016, as caught by my own radar

1. Gama Tower (289 m)
2. Capital Place (218 m)
3. Telkom Landmark (219 m)
4. SOHO @PC (200+ m)
5. IFC 2 (235 m)
6. The Tower (211 m)
7. Eternity (205 m)
8. Infinity (205 m)

For subsequent years will continue popping up skyscrapers in Jakarta. Here's a list of skyscrapers projects that are likely to be completed in 2017 and 2018 (currently in U/C stage) :

01. Menara ASTRA (270 m)
02. World Capital Tower (222 m)
03. District 8 Office Tower (280 m)
04. Sequis Tower (211 m)
05. Casa Domaine 1 (213 m)
06. Casa Domaine 2 (208 m)
07. PCPD (+200 m)
08. Anandamaya 1 (+200 m)
09. Anandamaya 2 (+200 m)
10. Anandamaya 3 (+200 m)
11. ICON 2 (200+ m)
12. Menara Kompas (200+ m)
13. ICON 1 (350 m)
14. Indonesia Satu 1 (303 m)
15. Indonesia Satu 2 (303 m)
16. Thamrin Nine 2 (200+ m)
17. Thamrin Nine 1 (330 m)
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Old January 24th, 2016, 01:10 PM   #15
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@Dito Roso:

I agree with you that Jakarta has huge potential as it is the largest primary city in the world and located in the largest country with a primary city in the world. If Indonesias economic and developmental trends continue, Jakarta has the chance to rank in the top 10 in the long term.
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Old January 24th, 2016, 06:15 PM   #16
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New York has the momentum. Shenzhen and Dubai are both feeling the pinch or their national economies. China is facing a stock market crisis and decelerating growth. And Dubai is facing less oil receipts (though it's way more diversified than nearby Abu Dhabi).
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Old January 24th, 2016, 11:05 PM   #17
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According to preliminary data Shenzhen grew with 8.9% in 2015. It's the financial capital of southern China and China's "silicon valley". Nothing short of a total disruption of China's economy and its decent into recession could break Shenzhen's momentum (in the near term).
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Old January 25th, 2016, 01:31 AM   #18
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Will New York or Shenzhen be the first city to reach 100,200m+ skyscrapers?

According to gaoloumi Shenzhen has 60,200m+ buildings completed or TO,200m+ under construction and under preparations number 132 more,for a total of 192,200m+ skyscrapers in a not to far off future. This figure does not include all proposals
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Old January 25th, 2016, 03:35 AM   #19
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Two things:

1) China's skyscraper boom will be coming to a halt, either soon or in the coming years.

2) NYC will continue to maximize heights with a lack of buildable land. But it won't ever match Chinese cities in raw numbers without massive rezoning of entire portions of the 5 boroughs.
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Old January 25th, 2016, 06:09 AM   #20
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Mumbai and Kuala Lumpur will have the next big boom. Kuala Lumpur's will be more rapid but short lived. Shenzhen has definitely cooled down in 2015, it was absolutely monstrous in 2013 and 2014. Dubai has already matured into a world city and it doesn't need any more boom.

Given the huge population, Mumbai definitely has the most potential in the long run.
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