2030, GDP of $1 Trillion and GDP Per Capita of $10,000?

[ThaiSiamese]

Vietnam will definitely surpass Thailand in term of economy by the year 2035 if the 2 countries are still developing in the same growth rate as it is now.

[Adams3]

Originally Posted by ThaiSiamese

Vietnam will definitely surpass Thailand in term of economy by the year 2035 if the 2 countries are still developing in the same growth rate as it is now.

Thailand won't have a military dictatorship for the next 30 years.

[ThaiSiamese]

It was just my hypothetical that IF the two countries develop in the same growth rate as it is now for the next 28 years... which everyone knows it's impossible. Yes, we are having the new democratic election in early next year which will definitely be good for our economy when we have a more stable and democratic gov't. That will make it even harder for Vietnam to surpass us or it's may not going to happen in this century. Anyways, I always hope Vietnam for the best. Your country has so much potential to become a developed country.

[Saigoneseguy]

Vietnam is developing yea, but there are many stagnant key areas that need to be tackled by a more efficient and professional government than what we currently have. Otherwise they will become a limit of which Vietnam will never get over.

[sqd]

The three biggest imports of Vietnam right now are machinery, refined oil, and steel. Starting from 2009, Vietnam will not have to ship part of its crude oil to Singapore to refine it and buy it back. Instead, Vietnam will ship our crude oil to Dung Quat and refine it and by doing so, Vietnam will be able to save $4 bil/year in FOREX for importing the oil. Starting from 2013 when the Nghi Son oil refinery becomes operational, Vietnam will also save about $4.5 bil/year in FOREX as well. So from 2009-2020, Vietnam will be able to save about $75 bil in FOREX and that is a lot of money for investing in infrastructure and education to further economic development; not to mention Vietnam will be more self-sufficient and less reliance on steel and machinery imports that will also save us a lot of forex

[Saigoneseguy]

So no need to buy dollars in bulk to control price...hopefully.

[christianhoang]

I dont know how strong my country but i love it. I Love the S shape country!

[Ten]

once before the economy crisis, at the time that thailand was growing fast just like vietnam is right now. there was a forecast that said thailand will be the world 8th biggest economy in the world in 2020 (or 2030 -not sure, sorry).
....look at how we are now. Things change as time passess.
hope vietnam will keep this rate of growth for a long time, it will then be another asian superpower eventually.

[vn1975victory]

Countries rise and fall for a reason.
Vietnam may have strong growth rate in the next 10 - 20 years or so, but if the current situation continues, it will definitely slow down. We may reach the GDP per capita level of $2000 - $4000 by then (current dollar value), but we probably won't be able to get above that range, UNLESS we have these:
1- A much more effective government (low corruption, adaptive to changes, creating a friendly business environment, good legal system, etc. and 1 important factor is that it has to be a strong government. We don't need 5 different parties fighting in the General Assembly (it's only fun the first time you watch) and/or 3 Prime Ministers every 4 years)
2- Major change in the nature of our businesses, from labor intensive to more technological oriented and high value service. This change requires an overhaul in the current education system, and for it to bring results in the next 10 - 20 years, we have to do it NOW.
3- No major unfavorable circumstances will happen, such as war (need to watch China and US very carefully, start buying some subs and more airplanes), no catastrophic natural disaster (of the 2003 tsunami scale) or political crisis.

[vn1975victory]

Originally Posted by sqd

The three biggest imports of Vietnam right now are machinery, refined oil, and steel. Starting from 2009, Vietnam will not have to ship part of its crude oil to Singapore to refine it and buy it back. Instead, Vietnam will ship our crude oil to Dung Quat and refine it and by doing so, Vietnam will be able to save $4 bil/year in FOREX for importing the oil. Starting from 2013 when the Nghi Son oil refinery becomes operational, Vietnam will also save about $4.5 bil/year in FOREX as well. So from 2009-2020, Vietnam will be able to save about $75 bil in FOREX and that is a lot of money for investing in infrastructure and education to further economic development; not to mention Vietnam will be more self-sufficient and less reliance on steel and machinery imports that will also save us a lot of forex

The Dung Quat refinery is a typical example of the limitations of "democracy": too many people arguing about too many things for too long, and no decision was made. Had we had it built on time, we would have covered the cost in the past few years and from now on it will save billions a year.

[Saigoneseguy]

Democracy - technocrats -consensus = idiocracy

[wulizhong]

Thôi bàn làm gì nhiều, mấy ai biết được ngày mai ra sao !
Có khi mấy chục năm nữa VN lại sát nhập vào liên bang China ấy chứ lỵ.



Mỗi bác ở đây cứ cố thu nhập mỗi năm khoảng 100,000$ là tốt rồi (ăn bẩn, thu nhập ngoài luồng đừng có tính vào nhé), đất nước chẳng cần gì nhiều hơn thế!

[coolink]

Vietnam can surpass that if we have the courage to say goodbye to communism, right now most town and villages only barely survive on $200 a year so most of you are dreaming

[tc2007]

Originally Posted by bang

Vietnam can surpass that if we have the courage to say goodbye to communism, right now most town and villages only barely survive on $200 a year so most of you are dreaming

last time i check the average income of vietnamese is somewhere $850/year for 2007. Vietnam will break the $1000/year mark in next 2 years.

[Fredi Meier]

source: http://thanhniennews.com/business/?catid=2&newsid=34632

they earned over one billion USD EACH month in 2007, does anybody knows what they do with all that money, i know they have expenses and they have to build refineries, but the net profit must be today at least 6-8billion USD and in near future over 10billion USD per year, they could use that amount for the infrastructure (south-north bullet train, new airport HCMC), but I have nothing heard about where this money goes.....maybe in other private pockets? the Oil sector in VN will be one of the largest in Asia, a lot of oil found offshore on the VN coast.

[sqd]

Originally Posted by Fredi Meier

source: http://thanhniennews.com/business/?catid=2&newsid=34632

they earned over one billion USD EACH month in 2007, does anybody knows what they do with all that money, i know they have expenses and they have to build refineries, but the net profit must be today at least 6-8billion USD and in near future over 10billion USD per year, they could use that amount for the infrastructure (south-north bullet train, new airport HCMC), but I have nothing heard about where this money goes.....maybe in other private pockets? the Oil sector in VN will be one of the largest in Asia, a lot of oil found offshore on the VN coast.

$7 bil already was used to import refined petroleum products for this year and another $5 bil was paid to the state budget. PetroVietnam alone contributes like 25% of Vietnam's state budget.
Vietnam imported a total of $15 bil of machineries and steel products this year; where do you think we got the forex from?

[skidlin]

...

[plasma169]

Originally Posted by Adams3

If Vietnam keeps a growth rate of about 8-8,5%, then Vietnam will have the same GDP per capita as S-Korea today in 25 years. Consider Vietnam will have about 100 million people by then, VN GDP will be about twice the level of S-Korea today. GDP of Vietnam and S-Korea will be about the same size by then.

Dream on. 25 years? South Korea's GDP per capita has already exceeded $20,000 mark. And it is not a PPP figure. For Vietnam to reach such a figure, it would take at least 50 years. And that is if Vietnam kep their inflation rate lower than the actual growth rate.

[vkameleon]

Originally Posted by plasma169

Dream on. 25 years? South Korea's GDP per capita has already exceeded $20,000 mark. And it is not a PPP figure. For Vietnam to reach such a figure, it would take at least 50 years. And that is if Vietnam kep their inflation rate lower than the actual growth rate.

and if South Korea doesn't merge with North Korea

[plasma169]

Originally Posted by wantuhoa

and if South Korea doesn't merge with North Korea

Vietnam is one of the poorest countries in the world. I think North Korea's GDP per capita is more than Vietnam's. (Add to the fact that North Korea completley blocks its economy from outside the world, but they achieved that.)

If North Korea re-opens its economy which appears to happen within a few years time, they will do a lot better than what China is doing in global economy right now due to huge financial backing from South Korea.

In regards to Vietnam's economic situation, they are just dirt poor. Think about matching against Thailand and Malaysia first before even thinking about reaching a $10,000 GDP per capita figure.