2030, GDP of $1 Trillion and GDP Per Capita of $10,000?

[Saigoneseguy]

And after all, China and Japan will not let it happen Think about a big chess play, North Korea is the rogue pawn in the area.

[nguyend]

Originally Posted by SaiGoNeseKiD

Vietnam should invest more and more on its infrastructure, even countries like Botswana has better road than Saigon.

This is Cotonou in Benin, looks familiar?

They fell behind Việt Nam by far. Việt Nam Mi now wear helmets, they don't.

[Siddude]

I think looking at the German unification experience the South Koreans would want to avoid certain things the West Germans had to endure. They made the E. German currency equal to the Deutsche Mark on a 1 for 1 basis. This distorted the true value of the economic condition of E. Germany. It created a lot of problems. The comparative advantage of cheaper labor in E. Germany was negated and so business investment in the East lagged compare with Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. The West German government was saddle with problems of bad infrastructure in the East, outdated educational curriculum, unemployment, etc.

I think the South Koreans can avoid all the headaches of unification of differing system by letting North Korea be run by a UN mandate and stewardship. Gradually building NK infrastructure and creating conditions of business investment and so on. They will have to incorporate NK gradually over a generational time basis.

Yea, I can't imagine the indoctrinated workforce of NK to be capitalist friendly after all that time. It would be such a huge culture shock! It would be like a person living in the 19th Century waking up to the 21st Century. It would be a rude awakening! LOL

[Locust]

Originally Posted by SaiGoNeseKiD

And after all, China and Japan will not let it happen Think about a big chess play, North Korea is the rogue pawn in the area.

Is that what you wish?...ha.. ha..

N. Korea indeed has been more than little pawn for China... However, this "pawn" started
to have will of its own and play with the forbidden toys(nukes) to the anger of its former "masters". China has limited options. The location of the Korean peninsula is too close to the China's heartland that it can only wish for stability in the region.

As for Japan, Russia, USA, etc... there is no reason to oppose a peaceful transition of
N. Korea into a normal nationhood neither. In fact, USA is now offering the N.K. the
option of abandoning the nukes in exchange for deplomatic relations and american
investments... Yes, there is not much of trust as we know... But, a turn of the events could
dramatically alter the political/economical picture in this region..

The key is to avoid the dramatic collapse just like the USSR or E. Germany and go through
a period of one nation with 2 systems (like China+Hong Kong) for some time.

[Adams3]

I think Vietnam could manage to reach the current South Korean economic level in 25 years from now with sound economic policies. Sustained annual growth rates close to 9% will make sure of that. If North Korea switch to a facts-based pragmatic economic policy inflenced by the Chinese and Vietnamese experience then it will show some impressive growth rates as well with massive backing from Koreans south of the border in addition to the weight of China trade and investment north of the border. And the rich Japanese market is also right next door. North Korea could suddenly have an economy on stereoids.

[CongTuSaiGon]

Backing from South Korea won't neccessarily make North Korea prosperous overnight. There are too many problems with North Korea, such as education, infrastructure, mentality and technology. A unified Korea will be set back by 10-20 years and will be a massive burden for the South, which will also drag the south down economically. East and West Germany's economic disparity at the time of unification was not as bad as South and North Korea is now. And who knows how many more years or decades until both lands unify.

[Locust]

Originally Posted by CongTuSaiGon

Backing from South Korea won't neccessarily make North Korea prosperous overnight. There are too many problems with North Korea, such as education, infrastructure, mentality and technology. A unified Korea will be set back by 10-20 years and will be a massive burden for the South, which will also drag the south down economically. East and West Germany's economic disparity at the time of unification was not as bad as South and North Korea is now. And who knows how many more years or decades until both lands unify.

That's what I was saying... Germany style reunifycation will NOT happen. Neither North nor South wants that... If the reunifycation ever happens, it will follow China-Hong Kong model. There is a think tank of people dedicated to study this.

Now, when one is dirt poor... it is easy to grow 10% a year or higher. By simply building basic infrasturctures and transfering past-the-prime-time industries and factories (which in any case will have to go away) you can boost the economy past the level of many other countries. This will also vitalize the southern economy as well because there will be a surge of demand in the related sectors.

I have to repeat, the money will come NOT only from the south, but it will be financed (a la Marshall plan) by international banks, etc. US and Japan
will also pay. Why?.... Just imagine, instead of invading and bloodsheding like in Iraq, Afganistan, etc.... you are about to gain pivotal influence in
a strategic country spending only a fraction (yeah!) of the cost of a protracted war.... If you flinch at the thought of "investing" (not dumping
just like in the wars) money in a country newly turned friendly, you are not worthy of superpower title.

I would not be surprised, not only US and Japan but also China and Russia will line up to invest and have a foothold on the N. Korea which will grow
again at a breakneck pace as we have seen in China, Vietnam, India, etc.

In short, from the economic & political points of view... all this is very much feasible. The big question is: what does Kim Jong Il have in mind? a ha...
That I don't know... sorry...

[Siddude]

I don't see Kim Jr. taking the step to reformulate or reform the economy like what China and Vietnam did. It would be his deathbed. He depends too much on the military. If Kim Jr. were to implement a socialism with North Korean characteristics, then it will open a flood of information into the North Korean society. North Koreans will be able to access for the first time the contrast between a rich, affluent, internationally engaged South Korean society versus a closed, backward society. I'm afraid the pent up anger from the people would be too much for the Kim Family Regime to control. Vietnam had no other ethnic rival state to compare and contrast to. China had Hong Kong and Taiwan but those countries were not continental size like China. I think that's the calculus that Kim Jr. is thinking about. He is so far not willing to take the gigantic step in order to reverse the Stalinist type of economy that North Korea has. The North Korean leadership has study the experience of Vietnam and China though. The only question whether or not the Kim Jr. will have the political will to take the leap of faith. It should be interesting to see!

[kyenan]

It seems to me that most of VNese here will not welcome any possible economic growth of N. Korea.

But it is highly adventageous for S. Korea to reunite with N. Korea anyway.

Reasons are as follows;

First, N. Korea has a massive amount of natural resources. It is estimated that N. Korea has natural resources as valuable as 2.3 trillion USD.

Secondly, unification will bring S. Koreans easy access to the Asian continent. The railways and highways crossing the peninsula from south to north will be connected to the trans-continental railways and highways. It will save lots of money and time to carry products and people to other parts of Asia and Europe.

Thirdly, N. Korea has cultural treasures that S. Korea doesn't have. There were kingdoms and states which existed mainly in northern Korea for the most of their times. We S. Koreans don't have enough access to the remains and treasures which the northern kingdoms and states left. All these treasures and remains could be good sources and inspiration for producing cultural products such as music, dance, theatre, films, soup operas, paintings, games, and so on.

Fourthly, N. Korea has population of about 25 million. A big population may mean that S. Korea has to spend lots of money on feeding the northerners, but it may also mean that S. Korean companies have more manpower to rely upon in producing labor-intensive products. And of course, they are paid less than S. Koreans.

Finally, the natural resources and 25 million population will combine to help Korea overall to be less affected by outside.

Currently, S. Korean economy is more and more relying upon exports and this mode of economy is easily damaged when the the main markets (China, Europe, and USA) play poor. Also, this mode of economy is easy to lose its money when the price of food and natural resources goes up because most of the food and resources we consume are imported from abroad.

The combined population of south and north Koreas means a better environment to raise a bigger domestic market. A bigger domestic market and the abundant natural resources in the north will buffer the shock from outside.


Therefore, it is apparent that the reunification will bring the Korean economy into a new stage; from the economy of poor resources, a small and unstable domestic market, and high tech to the economy of abundant resources, a bigger and more stable domestic market, and high tech.

The point is how we resolve any possible momentary social, political, and economic turmoils right after the reunification. In order to do so, S. Korea is trying to invest in N. Korea prior to reunification. N. Korea will be still poorer than S. Korea whenever the reunification comes true. And that would be the main reason for the turmoils.

But what if N. Korea, although it's not yet rich enough, is already equipped with advanced infrastructures, people with more experience in capitalism, and labor force better trained and edcuated even before the reunification? If that is the case, private companies and investors of S. Korea will rush to N. Korea to utilize resources in the north--whether it be natural, food, cultural, or even biological, which will give the northerners more jobs and give them no reason to come into S. Korea. And if that's the case, S. Korean government will not have to pay too much money to boost the northern economy.

What we just need is to keep north and south separately maybe in the form of a union and/or federation until the economic level of the north becomes comparable to that of the south.

S. Korea is now investing in N. Korea in forming tourism and manufacturing compounds, mining, and reforming infrastructures. For now we invest in a small amount. We will expand the scale of investment, which is by no means a burden to S. Korea. And it will pay us back huge as time goes by.

[coolink]

if you read vietnamese and korean history you'll know there is a sizable vietnamese population in northern korea compare to southern korea
so I think we alll want north korea to do well....and even if there is no Vietnamese there, we wish them well, we don't want anyone die on the street because of famine

we just don't welcome the dumb comment from an unknown member with the nick name plasma
it's the new year lets not dig any further than this

[sqd]

Originally Posted by kyenan

It seems to me that most of VNese here will not welcome any possible economic growth of N. Korea.

Don’t assume if you don’t understand how we think, Vietnamese don’t have the same mentality as the Korean. Vietnamese don’t triumph on the miseries and disadvantages of others and we definitely don’t feel uptight on the progress of anyone.

When someone like plasma makes that kind of comment, don’t expect the Vietnamese to not respond. History has proven, Vietnamese will respond even to the White race.

[Saigoneseguy]

Originally Posted by Locust

Is that what you wish?...ha.. ha..

I'm not talking from my wish, did I ever say that anyway. Please don't put your mentality over the others

This is a hard fact and it will be proven for a long time to come.

[dig31]

Yeah, China doesn't expect to see an united Korea, just like wanted to divide Viet Nam into 2 or even 3 parts in the past. But when the time arrives, no one can resist it. So at that time, maybe far future, Korea will be a very powerful country.

[Whiteeclipse]

Yes, I think Vietnam's economy may be $1 trillion or even higher by 2030, it may become like Canada and supply China's big market like Canada supplies America.

Seems Vietnam is making good trade ties with China which will boost their economy in the years to come.

[BetterFuture]

Originally Posted by dig31

Yeah, China doesn't expect to see an united Korea, just like wanted to divide Viet Nam into 2 or even 3 parts in the past. But when the time arrives, no one can resist it. So at that time, maybe far future, Korea will be a very powerful country.

I want to see a unified Korea by 2030.

[ultraboy]

Ehh just 1trillion in 2030? I dont think so,maybe 3trillion or more,vietnam just have small
business and alrdy grow at 8% speed each year,in the future vietnam will join the car
industry,game,phone,and other,so 1trillion is not true,(for me)

[BetterFuture]

Originally Posted by ultraboy

Ehh just 1trillion in 2030? I dont think so,maybe 3trillion or more,vietnam just have small
business and alrdy grow at 8% speed each year,in the future vietnam will join the car
industry,game,phone,and other,so 1trillion is not true,(for me)

I don't think so. $1 Trillion in 2030 is about right.

[BetterFuture]

Korea War: 1950-1953

It takes South Korea/North Korea around 50 to 55 years to have $1 Trillion Economy (1953-2008). I hope the two Koreas can unify soon for the mutual benefits of Korean people.

GDP Per Capita in 2008 in South Korea: around $20,000


Vietnam War: 1945-1975

Similarly, it takes Vietnam around 50 to 60 years to have $1 Trillion Economy (1975-2030 o 1975-2035).

GDP Per Capita in 2030 in Vietnam: around $10,000

[wulizhong]

Đối với VN không thể áp dụng lý thuyết, không thể phân tích kỹ thuật được.

Vài năm trước tôi còn nghĩ khoảng 2010 VN sẽ vượt Philippines, 2015 vượt Thái Lan. Nhưng với tình hình hiện tại thì có lẽ 2015 VN vẫn không thể nào vượt nổi Philippines chứ đừng nói gì đến Thái Lan.

[wulizhong]

VN PPP GDP (All of the figures shown are calculated by the International Monetary Fund, and are in International dollars. The list is in billions of dollars.)

2008 ↓ 242.332

2009 ↓ 264.732

2010 ↓ 290.660

2011 ↓ 320.260

2012 ↓ 352.526

2013 ↓ 387.468