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Old June 24th, 2015, 12:23 PM   #101
abhitej
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Originally Posted by M-NL View Post
Going back to my example: A 16 car N700a Shinkansen can transport up to 1300 passengers. To transport 1300 passengers you need 7 A320s. Given a 3 minute separation at the runway and a similar number of return flights, a single runway is already occupied 42 minutes an hour.

Never mind if we would want to have more trains an hour in each direction. In Japan the Shinkansens at peak times run at 3 minute intervals in both directions, that is 20 trains an hour! That is 20x2x1300=52000 passengers an hour. If you were to use 800 seat A380s that would mean 65 planes an hour. Good luck constructing an airport for that. It would need at least 6 runways.
It would be twice as big the current busiest airport in the world and that is for one route only!
Let traffic grow first to those level then it becomes reasonable to build a high speed rail. But given the current traffic levels high speed rail in India will be loss making proposition.
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Old June 24th, 2015, 12:39 PM   #102
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the cost of high speed rail is $ 50 million to 100 million per km? Do you mean in Europe? Do you think the construction cost in India will be as high as Europe?
Secondly, buying airbus or Boing, India has to pay the European or Americans. But manufacturing the track, cement, the train within India will be beneficial for the industry of India
Yes what you say is true. But same is true for planes. When you build airports you create demand for cement & steel in India. Given the level of demand of planes in India government should take initiatives to make them in India. Decision should be taken on commercial viability.
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Old June 24th, 2015, 12:44 PM   #103
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This is ludicrously short sighted. Plane fares at this moment in time are a little bit cheaper than a hypothetical future fare on a high speed rail that hasn't even been built yet.

With the density of population in India you really need to be going for the 'all of the above' approach to transportation. China is building railways, airports and freeways. They all have their pros and cons so just thinking 'why build a railway when I can fly' is not really solving anything. Airports will reach capacity and freeways will get full of people going medium distances.

India should be investing in railways now, before land and labour get too expensive. Otherwise in 30 years or so you will have loads of airports everywhere with overcrowded skies and the same creaking overcrowded slow trains you have today.
As of now India does not have enough demand for High Speed Rail. It will be a big white elephant. Maybe after 2025 there will be enough demand. Current rail system needs investment to increase capacity. That should be priority than High Speed Rail.
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Old June 24th, 2015, 12:49 PM   #104
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Chennai Rajdhani is perhaps not even in the top 15. If we consider the average speed for the entire journey, the fastest trains are the Rajdhanis and Durontos in the Delhi-Mumbai and Delhi-Kolkata (Howrah/Sealdah) line. The average speed is 85/86 km/h.

New Delhi - Sealdah Duronto
1459 km in 16h 55m. Avg Speed 86. Stops in between - 3.

Mumbai - Delhi Rajdhani
1386 km in 16h. Avg Speed 86. Stops in between - 5.

The fastest if we exclude the halt times is the Bhopal Shatabdi.
707 km in 8h 25m. Stops - 8. Avg Speed (excluding the halts) - 89 km/h.

This Bhopal Shatabdi reaches about 155 km/h in the stretch between Delhi and Agra which is perhaps the highest speed of all Indian Railways trains.
These trains are consistently late by 1-2 hours. So highest average speed in India will be around 75 km per hour.
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Old June 24th, 2015, 03:39 PM   #105
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Or you can build first while it's cheap? Waiting for another 10 years the cost might get double or even triple. From from the economic growth and etc. It will be at least 4-5 years before it's finish. And it's not that long before the demand reach the sustainable level. Learn this from the developed nation, and do not build your infrastructure when it's already expensive. UK cannot get HSR2 so easily partly because of this reason.

World has change. China knows that. Hence they start building their infrastructure without waiting for the market to be ready. Can't emphasize this enough.
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Old June 24th, 2015, 09:33 PM   #106
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Originally Posted by abhitej View Post
As of now India does not have enough demand for High Speed Rail. It will be a big white elephant. Maybe after 2025 there will be enough demand. Current rail system needs investment to increase capacity. That should be priority than High Speed Rail.
Yes, till then we can have HSR up and running (It would take no less than 7-8 years of construction, maybe more in India).
If, however we keep waiting for demand to iincrease, then cost will increase more in that time period.
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Last edited by abhijeetm29; June 24th, 2015 at 10:22 PM. Reason: It is hsr not metro
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Old June 24th, 2015, 09:48 PM   #107
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Yes, till then we can have metro up and running (It would take no less than 7-8 years of construction, maybe more in India).
If, however we keep waiting for demand to iincrease, then cost will increase more in that time period.
True. And if you want high speed trains running in 2025, you need planning to start right now and construction in about 2017-2018. Nice to see a duplication of what China did between 2000 and 2015. Two awakening giants.
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Old June 24th, 2015, 09:50 PM   #108
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Originally Posted by abhitej View Post
These trains are consistently late by 1-2 hours. So highest average speed in India will be around 75 km per hour.
Not the Howrah and Mumbai Rajdhanis. The yearly avg of 1-2 hr late is primary because of the winter months of Dec-Jan when the trains to/from Delhi are generally late by 10 hours or more due to fog (low visibility).
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Old June 24th, 2015, 11:43 PM   #109
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True. And if you want high speed trains running in 2025, you need planning to start right now and construction in about 2017-2018. Nice to see a duplication of what China did between 2000 and 2015. Two awakening giants.
Yes, this is how it happens. If we continue to be in the illusion that demand will increase and cost wouldn't over a period of time then it is dangerous. This is because this forms the closed loop that, I will construct only when demand increases and prices are okay.

Today I read about a news article on recent Hokuriku Shinkansen in Japan.
Companies are setting their produkt plants and industries outside the Kantou region (Tokyo) and moving along the Hokuriku region. Imagine the kind of development this region will shee in future.

Link: http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0002221512
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Old June 25th, 2015, 07:14 AM   #110
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Originally Posted by tonii View Post
Or you can build first while it's cheap? Waiting for another 10 years the cost might get double or even triple. From from the economic growth and etc. It will be at least 4-5 years before it's finish. And it's not that long before the demand reach the sustainable level. Learn this from the developed nation, and do not build your infrastructure when it's already expensive. UK cannot get HSR2 so easily partly because of this reason.

World has change. China knows that. Hence they start building their infrastructure without waiting for the market to be ready. Can't emphasize this enough.
Currently top speed of trains in India is 150 km per hour but average speed is 50 km per hour. We need to add track capacity to increase average speed to 100 km per hour. This itself need investment of USD 100 billion.

High Speed Rail technology will get cheaper in future. Wait for few years & normal speed for High Speed Rail will be 500 km per hour as compared to 300 km per hour. Better for India to wait for technology to improve and invest in new technology than now invest in current 300 km per hour technology.
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Old June 25th, 2015, 07:18 AM   #111
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Originally Posted by abhijeetm29 View Post
Yes, this is how it happens. If we continue to be in the illusion that demand will increase and cost wouldn't over a period of time then it is dangerous. This is because this forms the closed loop that, I will construct only when demand increases and prices are okay.

Today I read about a news article on recent Hokuriku Shinkansen in Japan.
Companies are setting their produkt plants and industries outside the Kantou region (Tokyo) and moving along the Hokuriku region. Imagine the kind of development this region will shee in future.

Link: http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0002221512
India does not have enough track capacity and average speed of trains in India is 50 km per hour. Better to increase track capacity & increase average speed to 100 km per hour. This itself will need investments of USD 100 billion. Doing this will add more to India's GDP then having 1-2 High Speed Rail lines.
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Old June 25th, 2015, 09:10 AM   #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by abhitej View Post
India does not have enough track capacity and average speed of trains in India is 50 km per hour. Better to increase track capacity & increase average speed to 100 km per hour. This itself will need investments of USD 100 billion. Doing this will add more to India's GDP then having 1-2 High Speed Rail lines.
HSR got nothing to do with increasing track capacity on conventional IR system.And I don't understand how you arrive at that figure of 100 billion USD?
What kind of investment are you looking at ? - only tracks or complete overall (stations, electrificien, signalling, better coaches etc.)

Small incremental things never add to GDP (at best they would add what they are : that is ,incremental). As I mentioned before, see the impact of Hokuriku shinkansen (and this is coming unbelievably soon).
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Old June 25th, 2015, 01:21 PM   #113
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Railways is cheaper than planes but high speed rail as of now is expensive than planes. You say that planes will not be able to satisfy demand for seats but thats your opinion. No reason for aviation sector not able to satisfy demand. In India plane tickets are already cheaper than high speed rail tickets in Europe or China.
While HSR might be more expensive than planes right now, planes will never be able to carry the entire Indian population over both short/long haul including cargo. The fact is that most Indians still use the railways and they are an inegral aspect of Indian culture. Building HSR lines is equal to building a new highway, it adds capacity and makes travelling quicker, India needs the capacity to meet forewing demand for travel, cargo, and modern standards.

At this rate India will never have the infrastructure to develop. Europe and East Asia aren't investing in HSR for a laugh.

BTW: I support plans for a quadrangle connecting Mumbai/Bangaluru/Chennai/Delhi, with either Mag-Lev or Shinkasen. I also think plans should be made to connect Nepal, Tibet, Myanmar, China and Sri Lanka to Indian Railways. The Myanmar's link could connect into SEA.
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Old June 25th, 2015, 06:21 PM   #114
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While HSR might be more expensive than planes right now, planes will never be able to carry the entire Indian population over both short/long haul including cargo. The fact is that most Indians still use the railways and they are an inegral aspect of Indian culture. Building HSR lines is equal to building a new highway, it adds capacity and makes travelling quicker, India needs the capacity to meet forewing demand for travel, cargo, and modern standards.

At this rate India will never have the infrastructure to develop. Europe and East Asia aren't investing in HSR for a laugh.

BTW: I support plans for a quadrangle connecting Mumbai/Bangaluru/Chennai/Delhi, with either Mag-Lev or Shinkasen. I also think plans should be made to connect Nepal, Tibet, Myanmar, China and Sri Lanka to Indian Railways. The Myanmar's link could connect into SEA.
Good plan. But where is the money.
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Old June 25th, 2015, 09:51 PM   #115
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Originally Posted by skyrocket2 View Post

BTW: I support plans for a quadrangle connecting Mumbai/Bangaluru/Chennai/Delhi, with either Mag-Lev or Shinkasen. I also think plans should be made to connect Nepal, Tibet, Myanmar, China and Sri Lanka to Indian Railways. The Myanmar's link could connect into SEA.
Shinkanse- could be
Maglev- No (Chinese maglev records loss in a small 30km stretch and you are talking about 1000s of km here. Even Japanese aren't expected to complete Chuo-Maglev between Tokyo and Osaka before 2040)

Appreciate the connectivity to other countries but I think it should be Conventional rail (With scope of upgradations) and not HSR as of now.
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Old July 21st, 2015, 05:51 PM   #116
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From Rail Journal:

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http://www.railjournal.com/index.php...ml?channel=540

Japan offers low-interest loan for Indian HS line
Tuesday, July 21, 2015



THE Japanese government has offered to fund the construction of India's first high-speed line linking Mumbai with Ahmedabad provided 30% of the rolling stock is supplied by Japanese companies

Japan has offered a loan with an interest rate of just 0.25%, even though the cost of the project has increased from an initial estimate of Rs 650bn ($US 10.2bn) to Rs 988.05bn, according to a feasibility study completed recently by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (Jica). A final report by Jica is due to be submitted next month.

A financial rate of return of 4% and an economic rate of return of 12% have been projected for the project, which will have an estimated ridership of 40,000 passengers per day

...
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Old July 21st, 2015, 10:24 PM   #117
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It seems that Japan's commitment to offer the installation of standard gauge, although 90% of the Indian network has a gauge of 1,676 mm.

From the Spanish experience of adopting the standard gauge for high-speed network with 90% of Iberian network (1,668 mm) wide, I can only give you a tip: not moving the external borders within the country, there will be more domestic traffic out.

Now there are only 5 trains daily to France, suffice one gauge changer and 10 steps a day for him.
But instead, we gauge changer 26, 12 in service, 5 without traffic and 9 for workshops. Every day are made, not counting the steps by workshops, an average of 101 steps per gauge changer.
In addition, the gauge is just the first problem, then there are security systems, backup security systems, electric power, electromagnetic interference ...

Do not make the same mistake.
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Old July 21st, 2015, 11:43 PM   #118
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India has even less reason to move to standard gauge than Spain did because cross border passenger traffic will be truly marginal for any foreseeable future. Why are Japanese proposing this solution? Merely for their own convenience? It's not possible technically to achieve very high speeds on narrow gauge, but broader than standard should be no issue.
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Old July 22nd, 2015, 03:46 AM   #119
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High speed lines will be segregated from conventional lines, so gauge compatibility is irrelevant. The world standard for high speed rail is 1435mm gauge, so it makes sense to use that.
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Old July 22nd, 2015, 06:09 AM   #120
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High speed lines will be segregated from conventional lines, so gauge compatibility is irrelevant. The world standard for high speed rail is 1435mm gauge, so it makes sense to use that.
It makes sense in terms of inconnectively to other HSR networks outside of India.
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