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Old September 4th, 2013, 04:32 PM   #821
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NS should have put a tender for maximum speed (280 km/h). That way, ICE-3 and AGV would have been feasible competitors. The AGVs are doing just fine in Italy where they are used by ItaloTreno.

I still think a major problem is that HSA paid too much for the concession, fearing it would lose it to DB or SNCF or Veolia Rail.
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Old September 4th, 2013, 06:22 PM   #822
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NS never wanted a real high speed train as they were deemed way too expensive. An AGV .Italo costs about € 26 million euros, while a V250 costs around € 20 million.
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Old September 4th, 2013, 06:26 PM   #823
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^ you pays for what you get...


So what's going to happen now? For the moment it is possible to get decent IC prices again from Brussels through to NL.

And by way of comparison, Hitachi were named as preferred bidder for the UK High Speed domestic trains on HS1 (Class 395 'Javelin') in 2004. The contract was signed in 2005 and the first train was delivered in 2007. Testing was completed 6 months early and they went into service in 2009. They are dual voltage and quad signalling system trains, with both UK and French systems.

Hitachi had never designed a train for Europe before this.

I'm sure they would love to help :-D
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Old September 4th, 2013, 07:49 PM   #824
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What's going to happen is not sure yet: NS has been given until October 1st to work on alternatives, then the Dutch government will make a decision. They will either take any of the plans presented by NS (which mostly involve a combination of high speed trains and classic intercities) or they will keep NS to the concession.

In the worst case, the government can opt for disenfranchisement, meaning re-tendering of the HSL-Zuid. I consider the last option to be very unlikely, as the government is also the owner of NS and gets dividend from NS.

For the short term (at least until december 2014) it looks like the current situation (with intercity trains from The Hague to Brussels) is what we'll get. Starting October 7th, there will be 2 additional pairs of Thalys trains running between Amsterdam and Brussels.

The long term plans as presented by NS involve sending intercity trains over the HSL to Belgium along with intercity trains over Roosendaal. NS is planning the delivery of new intercity rolling stock which would also be used over the HSL, current estimates is entering into service from 2022.
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Old September 4th, 2013, 08:11 PM   #825
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They shouldn't accept a further 8-year delay on running high-speed services on HSL to Belgium.

They should revoke the concession and put a new tender. One that NS should be barred from joining.
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Old September 4th, 2013, 08:16 PM   #826
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Fully agree with that.

Even when the HSL is integrated into the Hoofdrailnet (Dutch Core Routes Network) NS will be paying a high price for usage of the HSL - much higher than what is considered to be realistic. Re-tendering the HSL Zuid for a fair price will provide passengers with greater benefit than the current proposed solution.

However, it will create budgettary problems at the Ministry of Infrastructure, as they've already taken the concession fee into account for their plans until 2025... :-/
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Old September 4th, 2013, 09:53 PM   #827
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I think NS should pay FS to overhaul the V250 fleet and turn them into decent trains.

Trenitalia is the only major operator whose maintenance facilities are used to receive brand new sh!t from AB and rebuild it into something actually usable in real life service.
All the latest trains built from AB went immediately into maintenance and were rebuilt almost completely.
They would have no problem in handling the V250s for a fair price, and NS would end up with its trains in service within a decent time.


Ok, just kidding, but not so much...
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Old September 4th, 2013, 09:58 PM   #828
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Hollandse Rading, between Utrecht and Hilversum





"Gothic" arches and Sprinter regional/suburban train
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Old September 5th, 2013, 03:36 AM   #829
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A few options are:


The NS already decided that if they get the contract they buy more traxx locomotives to compensate for the loss of the V250 and also because the traxx locomotives used now are going to return to the leasing company due to the ending of the contract. source (dutch) They can later decide to also use the traxx locomotives for a national service.

image hosted on flickr

A whole rebuild of the V250 fleet (If they can't get rid of the contract with AB).

A rebuild of VIRM.

After the refurbishment of the old DDAR train the first generation of VIRM will go into refurbishment. In theory it is possible to make the trains dual voltage (1,5 kV and 25 kV). Also some rumours on dutch train fora say it is even possible te improve the max speed to 200 km/u but it can't be confirmed by an official source. They also can't be used for international services but they could for example be used for the Amsterdam-Breda Shuttle.
Buy a new fleet of trains.

Some candidates:

A-train (javelin) form hitachi

Advantage:Hitachi has proved it can build new desinged reliable trains on time.
Disadvantage: The Javelin is build specific for the width of England, also the max speed of a javelin is 225 km/H If the NS decide it needs a train capable of 250 a new type of javelin needs to be designed.
Also the javelins are a lot more expensive. 29 javelins (6 cars, 240 seats) costs around 193 milion euro's (250 million pound) The V250 were build for 20,7 million euro's (8 cars, 540 seats). Of course as the Dutch would say "goedkoop is duurkoop" (If you buy something cheap in the end you will regret it)

Siemens Railjet

Advantage:Proved itself for the austrian railways also at the moment 7 set are build for the czech republic. Almost the same capacity as the V250. Maybe as traction it is possible to build a more powerfull type of the BR 189 (max speed 140 km/u) which is already in service in The Netherlands.
Disadvantage: Again the max speed is 230 km/u.

Alstom Pendolino without tilting system.
[IMG]https://encrypted-tbn2.************/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTE1rSAtqH7W7STKnB-jfoBgC9kZ-UbXYJ_F57m3BaLQqrPDKIfkQ[/IMG]
Advantage:Are build at the moment in poland for PKP.The NS could decide to put an order after the once for PKP are ready. Altough in the past the pendolino's gave a lot of problems the generation used now in Italy, Spain and China are reliable machines. Max speed of 250 km/H. Almost the same capacity as the V250.
Disadvantage: can't seem to find one.

ICx

Advantage: DB already said that is time they will use the ICx for the Amsterdam-Berlin service. Due to the flexibilty the max speed can be 230 km/u or 249 km/u. Higher capacity than the V250.
Disadvantage:The train still needs to be build. Could be a big disaster like the velaro D.
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Old September 5th, 2013, 03:46 AM   #830
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My fear is that they might rebuild the V250 but lower its speed to 220 or 200
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Old September 5th, 2013, 03:53 AM   #831
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Nah, it doesn't have speed-related issues, it's "just" a bunch of faulty pieces poorly assembled...

It could even turn out to be a good train, after a serious rebuild process.

Of course it will not be able to run at full speed in dense snow, as happened, but I wouldn't trust any train in doing that...
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Old September 5th, 2013, 04:39 AM   #832
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Doesn't the X2000 does just that?
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Old September 5th, 2013, 04:43 AM   #833
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilhem275 View Post
Nah, it doesn't have speed-related issues, it's "just" a bunch of faulty pieces poorly assembled...

Well, there were the brakes that weren't really meant for 250 km/h...




Anyway, I hope for a big overhaul of the system with IC+ 160-200 km/h services (upgraded VIRM for 160 km/h max and new 200 km/h IC's), real HS service (Thalys), and 250 km/h international IC+ service on Amsterdam-Brussels and The Hague-Brussels (like Fyra, but run with non-tilting New Pendolino's, no reservation necessary, and only slightly more expensive than the 140-160 km/h Beneluxlijn redux).
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Old September 5th, 2013, 09:45 AM   #834
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The number of options to replace the V250s might even be larger. At the moment SBB has a tender running for Class II HSTs. For this tender Stadler has designed a 249 kph train as well. And Bombardier has something on the drawing board too. By the end of this year we should know who gets the tender, and maybe NS could just tack on an order for services on the HSL Zuid...
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Old September 5th, 2013, 10:01 AM   #835
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 3737 View Post
Also the javelins are a lot more expensive. 29 javelins (6 cars, 240 seats) costs around 193 milion euro's (250 million pound) The V250 were build for 20,7 million euro's (8 cars, 540 seats). Of course as the Dutch would say "goedkoop is duurkoop" (If you buy something cheap in the end you will regret it)
The Javelin is actually cheaper:
29 x Javelin:
250 million pounds is 295 million euros. For 9860 seats (29 * 340) comes to just a little bit short of 30000 EUR/seat.
1 x V250:
20.7 million euro, for 540 seats. Comes to 38000 EUR/seat.

Add to that the problems, and the damaged image, and you can see how expensive the AB train was. What I don't really get is that a company that pays 148 million per year for exclusive use of the HSL risked it all by trying to get its trains on the cheap...
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Old September 5th, 2013, 12:51 PM   #836
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I wouldn't count on a rebuild of the V250. Both SNCB and NS have terminated the contract and are working on legal proceedings to get as much money back as possible. Even if NS would lose all court cases (which I deem unlikely) I don't expect V250 to ever enter service again. Instead, the sets would be sent to a demolition company as happened with SM'90.
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Old September 5th, 2013, 02:32 PM   #837
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Quote:
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I don't expect V250 to ever enter service again. Instead, the sets would be sent to a demolition company as happened with SM'90.
They could be taken apart for parts...
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Old September 5th, 2013, 03:53 PM   #838
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Quote:
Originally Posted by K_ View Post
29 x Javelin:
250 million pounds is 295 million euros. For 9860 seats (29 * 340) comes to just a little bit short of 30000 EUR/seat.
That's the price of the Javelins from ten years ago. You don't really think you get the same deal again today, do you.
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Old September 5th, 2013, 03:56 PM   #839
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I don't think there are much parts that will be reusable. The major components (such as traction systems, door systems, etc.) are very train specific. It's unlikely that parts coming from a V250 will fit on a Thalys or ICE.
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Old September 5th, 2013, 04:20 PM   #840
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flierfy View Post
That's the price of the Javelins from ten years ago. You don't really think you get the same deal again today, do you.
The V250 and the Javelins were ordered in the same year, so I think you can compare their prices and conclude that one is cheaper than the other...
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