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Old May 4th, 2014, 06:52 PM   #24881
ChrisZwolle
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Originally Posted by Skyline_ View Post
Anyone into motorhomes?
I looked into it 5 years ago, but I found them to be too expensive. Even a 20 year old model with a lot of miles cost € 10.000. Other downsides are high fuel consumption and higher tolls. I think a budget hotel is cheaper.
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Old May 4th, 2014, 07:12 PM   #24882
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Originally Posted by Rebasepoiss View Post
A possible alternative to NATO in our region would be a military union between Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.
Sounds logical, but do you really think Poland would help Estonia if Russia attacked it?
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Old May 4th, 2014, 07:16 PM   #24883
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Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
I looked into it 5 years ago, but I found them to be too expensive. Even a 20 year old model with a lot of miles cost € 10.000. Other downsides are high fuel consumption and higher tolls. I think a budget hotel is cheaper.
Yes... I suppose the only real advantage of motorhomes is that you can stay in places where there are no hotels, like..... ski resort parking lots!
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Old May 4th, 2014, 07:18 PM   #24884
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Sounds logical, but do you really think Poland would help Estonia if Russia attacked it?
The key word is "deterrent". That's why superpowers have nuclear weapons.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Skyline_ View Post
Yes... I suppose the only real advantage of motorhomes is that you can stay in places where there are no hotels, like..... ski resort parking lots!
Another downside of motorhomes is that they are prone to theft.
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Old May 4th, 2014, 08:24 PM   #24885
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Just put a Toppola in your Saab

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Old May 4th, 2014, 08:58 PM   #24886
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Just put a Toppola in your Saab

I'd like to see this passing through speed bump
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Old May 4th, 2014, 09:18 PM   #24887
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Originally Posted by Rebasepoiss View Post
A possible alternative to NATO in our region would be a military union between Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.
I think it would not be deterrent for Russia, but very attractive. I am not a fan of NATO, but nowadays it is your (and perhaps our too) only working defence against re-creation of USSR.

I don't know your opinion on living in USSR, it must have had some bright sides, but as a inhabitant of former Warsaw-pact, I think the current situation is at least better.

That's the fate of small states
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Old May 4th, 2014, 09:40 PM   #24888
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USSR - Russian federation...

Same crap, different packaging and I'm glad the former Warsaw Pact countries are with us now, and not with that big bully Russia. And now that you're with us, we're going to be looking out for each other, and so will Ukraine anytime soon.

And Michael... you're with us as well. Don't leave NATO.

I'm going for a beer now.
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Old May 4th, 2014, 10:47 PM   #24889
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Originally Posted by Rebasepoiss View Post
That's a very selfish view indeed.

Estonia has taken part of NATO missions since 1996 (i.e. only 2 years after Russian forces left our soil). Estonian soldiers have served in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan. Why? Because as a member of NATO, it's our duty to do that. The war in Iraq was purely a US-issue, yet we still sent our troops. By claiming that you wouldn't want US troops to protect antoher NATO member is very hypocritical.

Estonia spends 2% of its GDP on military i.e the amount recommended by NATO. The only members that spend as much or more are the US, UK and Greece.

BTW, I think nobody really believes that the US would protect the Baltics against Russia, no country would. We just don't matter that much. The vague words from NATO leaders about having permanent forces in the Baltics are an indication of that.

The reason why we still want to be part of NATO is because it's an extra deterrant against Russia.

A possible alternative to NATO in our region would be a military union between Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. We're all in a similar geographic position relative to Russia and we have similar foreign policies concerning Russia. Finland would ideally also be part of this union but they are keen on keeping their "neutrality" which in reality means being a puppet doll of Russia if necessary.
I realize it comes across this way, but I'm not talking about that adventure in Iraq (which I didn't agree with anyway) but about the particular prospect of a war between "the West" and Russia going nuclear, and I think it's perfectly reasonable of me (or anyone) not to want to see that happen. (Heck, you wouldn't survive it either.) And I don't know how a war between the West and Russia happens without a high risk of that happening. And since Putin's activities in his neighbors don't pose any risk to American (or British, or French...) civilians in their own homes, I'm just raising the argument that the NATO alliance is potentially inconsistent with our governments' duty to protect their own citizens first: our losing our lives over Crimea would just be ridiculous. As I think I've said, this whole thing brought up all my Cold War baggage, which I'd (perhaps naively) back-burnered for 20 years, and that reaction is as much emotional as rational. If not more.

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I think you're right, but I think that NATO and the EU are enough of a deterrent for Russia too.
And that may be what it comes down to: the existence of NATO (hopefully) deters anyone from attacking its members. But - rather ironically - the positions are reversed in the Ukraine.

EDIT:
I also feel - and here I realize I'm saying something controversial - that the EU bears a considerable share of the responsibility for this situation, by just blithely deciding to not-quite-expand into an area that's so sensitive to Russia when they can barely handle the members they already have... And as I've already said, in the commercial/economic context, the EU is as much a rival of ours as it is an ally, so I'm not convinced a commercial fight between the EU and Russia is one we have an obvious interest in taking sides in. (And the EU as such isn't a party to NATO.)
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Old May 4th, 2014, 10:51 PM   #24890
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
I looked into it 5 years ago, but I found them to be too expensive. Even a 20 year old model with a lot of miles cost € 10.000. Other downsides are high fuel consumption and higher tolls. I think a budget hotel is cheaper.
"miles"? ;-)
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Old May 4th, 2014, 10:53 PM   #24891
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Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
The key word is "deterrent". That's why superpowers have nuclear weapons.

Another downside of motorhomes is that they are prone to theft.
I just never quite trusted deterrence. In the long run, the human race needs to abolish nukes. Personally, I only need to worry about another 30 or 40 years (if I'm lucky.)
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Old May 4th, 2014, 11:10 PM   #24892
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abolishing nukes though is just impossible, we'd end up with none and "bumm bumm geil" Kim Jong Un and his bearded friends would vaporize us

As for motorhomes, better in USA I knew someone who even had a "garage" in the back of the motorhome, with a hydraulically lifted platform that doubled as rear door, so could park motorcycles inside the "garage" for use later Old motorhomes are inexpensive but they tend to get really really nasty inside (water leaks then grows mold, rotting wood everywhere...)

Last edited by Kanadzie; May 4th, 2014 at 11:18 PM.
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Old May 5th, 2014, 12:33 AM   #24893
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This idea is from a Dan Carlin's podcast but...why not give everybody nukes or to some smaller military unions, at least. For example, if Estonia had even a single nuke, we could just blow up St. Petersburg in case of an attack and that's a human and economic cost that Russia wouldn't be ready to risk. If they tried to invade Estonia now, it probably wouldn't take them more than a week, if that.


Quote:
Originally Posted by volodaaaa View Post
I think it would not be deterrent for Russia, but very attractive. I am not a fan of NATO, but nowadays it is your (and perhaps our too) only working defence against re-creation of USSR.

I don't know your opinion on living in USSR, it must have had some bright sides, but as a inhabitant of former Warsaw-pact, I think the current situation is at least better.

That's the fate of small states
I was actually born in 1991, a couple of months after Estonian independence was restored so I don't have a first hand experience. But, I'm quite aware of the situation that existed - basically we lost 50 years of economic development and 10% of our population.
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Originally Posted by Verso View Post
Sounds logical, but do you really think Poland would help Estonia if Russia attacked it?
I don't know for sure but they would at least have a bigger incentive to do so than the US, for example.

Last edited by Rebasepoiss; May 5th, 2014 at 12:39 AM.
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Old May 5th, 2014, 12:55 AM   #24894
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rebasepoiss View Post
This idea is from a Dan Carlin's podcast but...why not give everybody nukes or to some smaller military unions, at least. For example, if Estonia had even a single nuke, we could just blow up St. Petersburg in case of an attack and that's a human and economic cost that Russia wouldn't be ready to risk. If they tried to invade Estonia now, it probably wouldn't take them more than a week, if that.
Because in this way you multiply the chance that someone could go nuts and decide to use a nuclear bomb against his not-so-beloved neighbour.

I mean, one single idiot is enough to screw up the entire world. If, for some reason, Estonia became a dictatorship and decided to use the nuclear bomb, it would become able to start a war!
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Old May 5th, 2014, 01:21 AM   #24895
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Yeah like when the .ru-ians hacked Estonia's internet

But then, maybe they would never have tried to do it
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Old May 5th, 2014, 02:27 AM   #24896
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Originally Posted by Jasper90 View Post
Because in this way you multiply the chance that someone could go nuts and decide to use a nuclear bomb against his not-so-beloved neighbour.

I mean, one single idiot is enough to screw up the entire world. If, for some reason, Estonia became a dictatorship and decided to use the nuclear bomb, it would become able to start a war!
A few nuclear bombs wouldn't be the end of the world but it would be a very devastating war for both countries involved which is exactly why it's such a great deterrent. North Korea is probably the most insanely totalitarian country there is today, yet even they haven't started a nuclear war and probably never will.

Estonia could never have an army large enough to defend ourselves agains Russia, it's simply impossible. As collective defense also isn't an option it seems (as has become more evident in the past few months), there only real option is a nuclear weapon.

Last edited by Rebasepoiss; May 5th, 2014 at 02:33 AM.
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Old May 5th, 2014, 02:47 AM   #24897
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If a nuclear bomb destroys Saint Petersburg, radiactions would contaminate Estonia too, it isn't so far away. And, more weakly, also the rest of Europe with a consequent inimmaginable disaster, even for the next generations.
A better hypotesis would be an united European army, that would defend a single member country if attacked. It would work as deterrent too.
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Old May 5th, 2014, 02:51 AM   #24898
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Moscow then

Anyway, a united European army would have the exact same problem as NATO.
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Old May 5th, 2014, 03:49 AM   #24899
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Poland - S8 expressway

11 car pileup and 3 dead.

Involved: 2 Russian TIRs and 3 dead Czechs (out of family of 4). Polish family survived only because they exited their car seconds before a speeding Russian TIR slammed into them. It was too late for the Czechs. Out of family of 4 only one baby survived, mother and father and another baby died instantly.

Cause: Fog







RIP
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Old May 5th, 2014, 06:13 AM   #24900
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rebasepoiss View Post
A few nuclear bombs wouldn't be the end of the world but it would be a very devastating war for both countries involved which is exactly why it's such a great deterrent. North Korea is probably the most insanely totalitarian country there is today, yet even they haven't started a nuclear war and probably never will.

Estonia could never have an army large enough to defend ourselves agains Russia, it's simply impossible. As collective defense also isn't an option it seems (as has become more evident in the past few months), there only real option is a nuclear weapon.
You can predict that no one would ever rationally use a nuclear bomb against anyone, because it would mean suicide and potential devastation of a large part of the planet in case of an escalation.

But the problem lies in the word "rationally". Let's imagine that Estonia elected an old sex-addicted guy with mental problems and a distorted perception of the reality, just like Italy elected Silvio Berlusconi.

How would you trust him not to use a nuclear bomb against Finland, if his mental illness told him it's the right thing to do?

I made an extreme example, but my point is that the least number of countries have nuclear bombs, the better

(It might be even more funny to know that Berlusconi really considered candidating for the EU Parliament from Estonia! Only to receive some kind of immunity for all the crimes he committed in Italy see here: http://www.euractiv.com/eu-elections...ia-news-530527 )

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Originally Posted by ufonut View Post
Poland - S8 expressway

11 car pileup and 3 dead.

Involved: 2 Russian TIRs and 3 dead Czechs (out of family of 4). Polish family survived only because they exited their car seconds before a speeding Russian TIR slammed into them. It was too late for the Czechs. Out of family of 4 only one baby survived, mother and father and another baby died instantly.

Cause: Fog

RIP


I'm sorry for that family... I'm glad that at least one baby survived.
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