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Old June 27th, 2014, 09:04 AM   #26161
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Quote:
Originally Posted by g.spinoza View Post
No. Today you measure a temperature of 30 degrees with an error of 5 degrees. That means that you have 95% probability that the true temperature is between 27.5 and 32.5. Tomorrow you measure 31 with the same error. You can't really say that the temperature has risen: what if the true temperature of today was 31 and that of tomorrow is 30?
Does it go even for the one exact device. I mean, imagine my thermometer, which measure with an error + 1 °C. If there is 30°C today and 31°C tomorrow, was not the temperature change +1°C whatever error it produces?

Just curious. Or the error may vary in time?
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Old June 27th, 2014, 10:01 AM   #26162
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Quote:
Originally Posted by volodaaaa View Post

Does it go even for the one exact device. I mean, imagine my thermometer, which measure with an error + 1 °C. If there is 30°C today and 31°C tomorrow, was not the temperature change +1°C whatever error it produces?

Just curious. Or the error may vary in time?
Doesn't work that way. Errors are just measurement of how confident you are that the temperature is correct. Usually it is given in 95% degree of confidence. 30 degrees with 1 degree errors means that there is 95% possibility the true temp is in that range, and 5% that it is beyond or below. In the example you stated you can't say there has been an increase in temperature: your errors are far too large. You could claim a temp increase if your errors were, say, .1 degrees, or .5.
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Old June 27th, 2014, 02:42 PM   #26163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by g.spinoza View Post
No. Today you measure a temperature of 30 degrees with an error of 5 degrees. That means that you have 95% probability that the true temperature is between 27.5 and 32.5. Tomorrow you measure 31 with the same error. You can't really say that the temperature has risen: what if the true temperature of today was 31 and that of tomorrow is 30?
a) If I will measure with such uncertainty, the correction would need to reduce the uncertainty. It would need to reduce the error. To be able to achieve that, you would need your error not to be a random error in the first place. It would be impossible to correct for the error after the measurement if it was a random error.

Now if the error would be completely random, you could make 10 measurements instead of one and you would reduce the uncertainty. The same holds for data in time. If you have long enough data you can filter the random error out from the trend.

b) If the error is not random, you should be able to correct it. But then again. If you fail to determine correctly on what that error depends, you may worsen the data instead of improving them.

I guess that they determine whether the error is random or not with comparing the data to the ground stations. Now if it is not random, it should be "easy" to model it out from the data and if it is random it is nonsense to try correcting it.

This is of course all fishy, because when your random error is higher than the temperature changes that you are interested in, you got a problem and would need very long data to be able to prove anything.
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Old June 27th, 2014, 05:46 PM   #26164
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You can do very little to reduce errors post facto. Yes, you can average over many measurements, but in temperature you would have to do that in different times, which introduces other kinds of errors, or over several thermometers at once, which introduces another kind of errors.
You can reduce errors before, by calibrating instruments better. That's what we do.
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Old June 27th, 2014, 08:17 PM   #26165
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The Mitsubishi Outlander P-HEV is a huge success in the Netherlands due to the low tax rate.

As of April 2014, European sales are led by the Netherlands with 10,951 units, Sweden with 623 units, and Norway with 622.

If you lease a car in the Netherlands through your employer, you have to add a percentage of the car value to your taxable income. The tax rate varies from 0% to 25%, depending on CO2 emissions. The Mitsubishi Outlander P-HEV was in the 0% tax range in 2013 and 7% in 2014. To compare, other cars in this tax range are city cars and subcompacts, while the Outlander is a large SUV.

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Old June 27th, 2014, 09:28 PM   #26166
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You can reduce errors before, by calibrating instruments better. That's what we do.
I find this really interesting. How do they calibrate that satellite? .

What else can you do than look at the satellite data, the ground station data and compare them. If you find non random differences you can try to change the satellite measurement technique in those given areas where you find non random differences to measure differently depending on the direction of the errors till the only errors you find are random.

I am not sure if this is significantly better than just statistically filter out the non random error. Why? Because you still need something that would decide whether the satellite would switch the measurement technique in those areas with similar characteristics as those problematic control areas. That something could be replaced by a variable in the data processing.

Hmm, maybe I see where could be the difference. It could be so that the non adjusted measurement would contain less information than the adjusted measurement. Once the information is not present at all, you can't repair for it statistically.
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Old June 27th, 2014, 09:42 PM   #26167
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Today is a very black for Europe and democracy.
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Old June 27th, 2014, 09:47 PM   #26168
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What happened?
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Old June 27th, 2014, 09:56 PM   #26169
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Most of the discussions here are about gypsyes, world cup, metric system etc. Let's change the topic a little. New topic: what's the stupidest thing you have ever done?

I'll be the first one to answer, for maybe a gold medal for what I did today: I left the place where I am currently living in Austria, on the way to Romania. After 315 km, in the first parking area after crossing into Hungary, I remembered that I forgot my wallet with my documents in Austria. So I've returned after them, another 315 km. Right now I have just left after grabbing my wallet and I have 700 km ahead until I get home (although at this time I should have been nearly at home if I wouldn't have forgotten my wallet).

Total cost of this fun:
630 km
46 Euro in fuel
7 lost hours

Let's see if somebody can beat me
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Old June 27th, 2014, 09:59 PM   #26170
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What happened?
Because despite most (western)-Europeans wanting most powers to be taken away from Brussels and returned to national parliaments, they have gone ahead and appointed a sleazy Euro-federalist to become the next president of the European Commission. It's going to be even more difficult now to reform European politics. David Cameron is very angry, and I fully agree with him.
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Old June 27th, 2014, 10:00 PM   #26171
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Do you vote in Britain? Would you vote to leave the EU?

(Sorry, Bogdy....)
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Old June 27th, 2014, 10:01 PM   #26172
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Bogdy, you're lucky you had enough fuel for the trip back to your wallet.
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Old June 27th, 2014, 10:02 PM   #26173
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bogdymol View Post
Most of the discussions here are about gypsyes, world cup, metric system etc. Let's change the topic a little. New topic: what's the stupidest thing you have ever done?

I'll be the first one to answer, for maybe a gold medal for what I did today: I left the place where I am currently living in Austria, on the way to Romania. After 315 km, in the first parking area after crossing into Hungary, I remembered that I forgot my wallet with my documents in Austria. So I've returned after them, another 315 km. Right now I have just left after grabbing my wallet and I have 700 km ahead until I get home (although at this time I should have been nearly at home if I wouldn't have forgotten my wallet).

Total cost of this fun:
630 km
46 Euro in fuel
7 lost hours

Let's see if somebody can beat me
A few years ago I was well on my way from Mayrhofen to London, when I realised that I forgot my fuel- and credit-cards. I didn't notice until I got to Karlsruhe where I want to fill up...
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Old June 27th, 2014, 10:03 PM   #26174
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Originally Posted by Penn's Woods View Post
Do you vote in Britain? Would you vote to leave the EU?

(Sorry, Bogdy....)
No, I don't vote in Britain, and I do want to stay in the EU. But not the EU in its current state.
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Old June 27th, 2014, 10:26 PM   #26175
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bogdymol View Post
Most of the discussions here are about gypsyes, world cup, metric system etc. Let's change the topic a little. New topic: what's the stupidest thing you have ever done?
A couple of years ago my GF was out of town so I decided to surprise her (and not to mention improve my living conditions at the same time ) and clean the whole apartment. It was a complete mess so I had been working with it almost all day. When I was finally finished I realized that I'm very hungry so I went to the kitchen, took a box of cereal to the living room with a bowl and

BAM!

I still don"t know how I managed to do it but the box kinda exploded in my hand and those little bits scattered across the entire room, and they fell behind, in, on and under everything. So I had to start moving the furniture again...
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Last edited by nbcee; June 27th, 2014 at 11:32 PM.
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Old June 27th, 2014, 11:12 PM   #26176
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Originally Posted by Road_UK View Post
No, I don't vote in Britain, and I do want to stay in the EU. But not the EU in its current state.
I wish that Serbia is in EU.But that is just a dream for now .
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Old June 27th, 2014, 11:16 PM   #26177
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bogdymol View Post
Most of the discussions here are about gypsyes, world cup, metric system etc. Let's change the topic a little. New topic: what's the stupidest thing you have ever done?

I'll be the first one to answer, for maybe a gold medal for what I did today: I left the place where I am currently living in Austria, on the way to Romania. After 315 km, in the first parking area after crossing into Hungary, I remembered that I forgot my wallet with my documents in Austria. So I've returned after them, another 315 km. Right now I have just left after grabbing my wallet and I have 700 km ahead until I get home (although at this time I should have been nearly at home if I wouldn't have forgotten my wallet).

Total cost of this fun:
630 km
46 Euro in fuel
7 lost hours

Let's see if somebody can beat me
I was involved in something extremely stupid when was in student's years. That story was even included in a book written by my friend. Another friend told the story to his colleagues, theater actors, who were/are more than interested to play in a act based on it Only problem is it wasn't 100% legal (nobody was hurt or anything and it eventually ended up happily for all), so I am not sure if I may...
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Old June 27th, 2014, 11:25 PM   #26178
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I have made so many stupid things, I could start to write a b log about (like forgot to turn off the stove, drove with flat tyre, etc. )

But by now, I can remember two stupid things I have done.

1) our dog is angry, when is left alone in our apartment. And sometimes, when she is angry, she walks in the bedroom, jumps ro the bed and piss it off. So we always close the bedroom whe we leave. Once I had lot of ideas in my mind and had to pick up my girlfried from the school. I closed the bedroom and left the flat. When we came back a strange thing happened - the dog did not greeted us. We find out soon, that i locked the dog out in the bedroom. She completely pissed and shat the bed so we had to go to ikea and imediately bought a new mattress:-)

2) a second stupid thing i have said was during sexy times with my fiancee. She looked very good, so I stated she is less ugly than my former girlfriend :-) she got furious and the sexy time was gone. But in terms of logic, i did not say anything wrong:-D
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Old June 27th, 2014, 11:35 PM   #26179
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The most stupidest thing i have ever done was:
Whan i was 7 years old i went on vacation in Montenegro.When i got to the beach i drifted away from my parents.They were so freak out because i ran away from them. They found me after 2 hours while i was buying ice cream
Because of that i spend 5 days in hotel while they were on the beach and i was locked in my room.
That was 10 days vacation ,so i practically spend one half of vacation in my bedroom.
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Old June 27th, 2014, 11:36 PM   #26180
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I went to Norway two weeks ago, and visited Vøringfossen. I walked to the scenic overlook, and saw a nice waterfall, and though that was it. I found the roar a bit loud for the amount of water coming down, it turned out I missed the actual tourist attraction; the large waterfall. It was not visible from the lookout point, but apparently it is the biggest tourist attraction of Norway and I missed it. The rest of the country made up for it though.

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