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Old April 22nd, 2015, 01:14 PM   #31321
TrojaA
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I think the most important of electric vehicles is the recharging way and time it consumes. I would say that 200km at motorway speed would be enough for many people, if they could recharge the car within 2-5min. (Like they can do with petrol/gas powered cars)
But this isn't possible at the moment. There're some physical limits due to the battery and the power grid (see Tesla's supercharger), so I don't think that we'll have fast recharging in the future.

Charging at home is for a lot of people no option - e.g. because they live in a flat and have no garage. (Charging stations at the road are rare and to place millions of them would also be expensive (you nearly need a 1:1 relation in cities))
So what are the alternatives?

Battery swaping: The problem is, that there's no norm how an electric vehicle should be build. So the compromise would be that only a partial swap is done. But that wouldn't add as much range as a real recharge.

Hybrid/Range extender: Would be an option, but you have to carry to systems. For city traffic the electric drive is perfect, but on motorways and country roads non hybrids are often as efficient as hybrids. Although e.g. a Prius is a good car, it's no car for people who don't drive much in city traffic where the recuperation of the electric motor makes braking more efficient. Else the ED is just extra weight.
(Did you ever tried to do a fuel saving ride? It's absolutly no fun, but you'll reach a consumption near that which was measured with the NEDC.)

Other alternatives like natural gas etc.: They are alternatives and some of them burn fuel cleaner. You can refuel fast, but their efficiency is nearly as bad as the efficiency of petrol powered cars. But what's more a problem: For many we don't have a mass working way to gain them through regenerative techniques.

So for some people the current EVs for sell are good, but for many others that's not what they need or want. Subsidies like in Norway (or (tax) incentives as a euphemism) push EVs onto the market, because the cheap price balances out the disadvantages. But for long-terms it's no real option.
Today a German article was published where the taxi office of Stuttgart says that currently electric vehicles doesn't make sense for them to go live. (Because of all these points above http://www.heise.de/autos/artikel/St...l-2616302.html (German)) And I always thought that taxis would be the optimal place for EVs.

If there's a certain amount of EVs, then one will have to pay as much taxes as we do now for petrol powered cars. As if the government could absorb the tax losses. (Old boy's club already warns that self-driving cars will hurt cities much, because speed cameras won't generate revenue anymore. ;-))
All in all I don't see currently a mass market for EVs, because we have the comfortable petrol with a good infrastructure and cheap prices. (But could change if we reach peak oil in a few decades)
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Old April 22nd, 2015, 02:20 PM   #31322
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Originally Posted by volodaaaa View Post
How fast did he drive? Enough to take off?
How about this one:



5 our ago, near my town. Rumors say that the BMW had 180 km/h on a road 2+2 which turns into an 1+1 as you exit the town. More picture here.
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Old April 22nd, 2015, 07:31 PM   #31323
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Unfortunately I think that electric and hydrogen vehicles will become mainstream only when oil will become too scarce. Opposition of oil lobbies is currently too strong. However there are exceptions, for example in Norway they are relatively popular due to government incentives (discounts on taxes and tolls).
When they will be widespread across the world, environmentalist\NIMBY protests against new highways will probably decrease.
For now the main problem with electrical cars is the polution and the environmental disaster they are causing now. It might seems "clean" for the final user, but an electric car needs much rare earths (like neodyme, lithium, etc...) that are available in very low quantities and the extraction needs huge quantities of energy, it polute the local environment and are not yet corectly recycled for most of them... :/

But yes, as long as tere is still petrol to sell at gold price (and not only money for petrolum companies but also for countries with all the taxes...), we won't see a real alternative to petrol cars...
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Old April 22nd, 2015, 07:33 PM   #31324
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If the fuel taxes in western Europe were as low as in North America, we could easily afford to drive a car with oil at $ 250 per barrel.
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Old April 22nd, 2015, 07:48 PM   #31325
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But it is not very sustainable.
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Old April 22nd, 2015, 08:33 PM   #31326
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Big schemes to subsidize alternative energy sources aren't financially sustainable either. Electric cars would be much less popular if there weren't as many tax breaks and financial incentives to use them.

The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV basically killed the other electric cars in the Netherlands (Opel Ampera / Chevy Volt), thanks to government subsidies and tax breaks. Practically no private owner buys a hybrid or electric car in the Netherlands, they are all lease car owners who have to pay much less tax on company cars. Private owners don't qualify for such tax breaks, so there is no incentive to buy an electric car.
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Old April 22nd, 2015, 10:19 PM   #31327
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I understand and I am sure that electric cars will be popular at certain point in future. But I think the overall average engine power will decrease.

There are some studies, especially in west Europe pointing out the fact, that young people in age of 18 are no more interested in ownership of a car - they need to utilize their time during travelling and driving is just waste of time. They are looking for good-equipped and reliable PT with wi-fi connection.

I can't consider the credibility of these studies as here goes: the greater power you have, the higher class you belong
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Old April 22nd, 2015, 10:34 PM   #31328
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There are some studies, especially in west Europe pointing out the fact, that young people in age of 18 are no more interested in ownership of a car
These studies coincided with the worst recession in over 70 years, particularly affecting young adults. In many European countries the unemployment rate for people under 25 is in the double digits, in quite a number of countries even over 20% unemployment, in addition to less well tracked underemployment.

The amount of new driver's licenses in the Netherlands for the 17-20 age group also dropped in 2009, but grew strongly since 2010.

Economic conditions such as the great recession of 2008 and prolonged stagnation afterwards are not representative for long-term trends.

The recession and consequent stagnation also resulted in other (temporary?) lifestyle changes among young adults, such as record school attendance, postponed family formation (getting children) and postponed homeownership. It remains to be seen how much this persists once the economy really starts to pick up again. There are already indications that birth rates start to increase again, now that the worst of the recession is over.
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Old April 22nd, 2015, 10:34 PM   #31329
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Originally Posted by volodaaaa View Post
they need to utilize their time during travelling and driving is just waste of time. They are looking for good-equipped and reliable PT with wi-fi connection.
Those 18-year old will grow older, no worry. Studies are just studies. And real world is still a real world so they will eventually try to experience it fully. And therefore they will need to have a car.
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Old April 22nd, 2015, 11:00 PM   #31330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
These studies coincided with the worst recession in over 70 years, particularly affecting young adults. In many European countries the unemployment rate for people under 25 is in the double digits, in quite a number of countries even over 20% unemployment, in addition to less well tracked underemployment.

The amount of new driver's licenses in the Netherlands for the 17-20 age group also dropped in 2009, but grew strongly since 2010.

Economic conditions such as the great recession of 2008 and prolonged stagnation afterwards are not representative for long-term trends.

The recession and consequent stagnation also resulted in other (temporary?) lifestyle changes among young adults, such as record school attendance, postponed family formation (getting children) and postponed homeownership. It remains to be seen how much this persists once the economy really starts to pick up again. There are already indications that birth rates start to increase again, now that the worst of the recession is over.
Yes, that is true and the hypothesis has been already accepted. I have not found a single study in English (I am sure there are some), but we calll it "demographic law of war". The generation in reproductive age during WWI had less children than generation before (you know, no time for having sex... just kidding... bad conditions to raise children, high number of casualities, etc.). The children from this generation (born during 1914 - 1918) grew up to reproductive age just during WWII (they were in age of 21 - 31). Basically, the weak (in number comparing with the previous one) generation had even less children. In contrary to this weak generation, children born during pre-war period (in early 1900s) created a strong generation, members of which had children in interwar period. It went on, the weak generation give birth to the next weak generation and the strong generation give birth to the next strong generations. You can see it on age pyramids for EU population with typical two maximums.

(the people around the age of 60 were born after WW2 to parents mostly born in interwar period. In contrary, people in the age of 40-50 were born to parents born during WW2)

As the time goes, the boundaries between those two types of generations are fading away. But another anomaly arises - the rapid drop of birth rates. The explanation is quite easy - a strong generation (my peers) is in reproductive age, but... the average age of pregnant mothers is rapidly growing up due to factors you have mentioned (more free lifestyle, etc.). And it has seemingly resulted in this. People don't need cars so far.

But I still see diferences - e.g. people in West are more conscious. If a young graduate doesn't need car, they don't purchase it. Unlike that, here a young 18 years old graduate buy car as early as it is possible. Especially used cars are incredibly cheap here. It might be the different mind-set and surely the fact, public transport operators fail to keep the young (most potential) passengers.

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Those 18-year old will grow older, no worry. Studies are just studies. And real world is still a real world so they will eventually try to experience it fully. And therefore they will need to have a car.
I agree. But there is a huge difference between car possession and car usage. Everybody needs a car in today's world. Needless to say that I do love driving :-)
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Old April 22nd, 2015, 11:02 PM   #31331
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Quote:
Originally Posted by volodaaaa View Post
There are some studies, especially in west Europe pointing out the fact, that young people in age of 18 are no more interested in ownership of a car - they need to utilize their time during travelling and driving is just waste of time. They are looking for good-equipped and reliable PT with wi-fi connection.
It may be true in cities (Paris, London, Frankfurt, Madrid, etc.) where there is a very decent local public transport, and good railway connections other cities, good airline connections to cities far away.
But it is surely not true for the majority.
Any, yes, in 18 you are free. You are a student, have little money but many time, no responsibility, "shopping" means new clothes or smartphone, not food for a week and 4 persons. And if you need, you can borrow your father's car.

I'm no more so young, but even so, if I lived in Cologne (the nearest city to my town), I'm not sure I had a car. Especially if there were an S-Bahn (local railway) or subway station nearby. But here, although it is not a rural area where I live, life without a car is quite hard.
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Old April 22nd, 2015, 11:17 PM   #31332
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The explanation is quite easy - a strong generation (my peers) is in reproductive age, but... the average age of pregnant mothers is rapidly growing up due to factors you have mentioned (more free lifestyle, etc.).
I basically agree but you missed an important factor. Up from the 60's abortion is free or almost free in many European nations. In the 70's and 80's there were more abortions in Hungary than births! Contraception is available from the 70's, condoms are available all over Europe. So now, theoretically, if you don't want to have a child, you can make sex ten times a day, you won't have any.
For our generations it is actually evident, that making sex does not mean getting a child. The generation of my parents had significantly less possibilities, and their parents had almost nothing. Without condoms, contraception and a strictly restricted possibility of abortion would be the child birth rate nowadays much higher as it actually is.
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Old April 22nd, 2015, 11:20 PM   #31333
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Rural areas (especially suburban) are perfect car passengers generators. The sparse population density and sometimes irregular spatial pattern leads to situation when it is impossible to offer a quality public transport with reasonable departure intervals. The customer (I mean body responsible for transport service procurement - e.g. region) would bankrupt if it subsidized services in public interest having the lines with 5 minute departure interval from group of villas with population of 500. On the other hand nobody from these people would use PT if it offered one departure in a hour (reasonable for body, unattractive for passengers). With the PT, I consider Budapest to be the very attractive city. When I was there for the last time, I realized I would not need a car for intra-urban transport if I lived there. The subway connections together with the trams were perfect. In Bratislava, the situation is different. My example: I need to take a 10 minutes walk on street without sidewalks, then I need to overcome a pedestrian crossing through 4 lanes (with speed limit of 70 kph), then wait for a bus with 12 minutes departure interval, take two stops, and walk for 10 minutes uphill to get to my office. Takes me 20 minutes in best constellation by PT and 3 minutes by car (parking included) :-)
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Last edited by volodaaaa; April 22nd, 2015 at 11:27 PM.
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Old April 22nd, 2015, 11:48 PM   #31334
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I agree. But there is a huge difference between car possession and car usage.
Is it really? (at least in numbers?)
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Old April 22nd, 2015, 11:59 PM   #31335
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Is it really? (at least in numbers?)
I meant in context Having a car does not mean using it every day.
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Old April 23rd, 2015, 12:21 AM   #31336
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Of course not. I won't use my car for approximately next 14 days starting tomorrow afternoon. Yet I'm dependent on owning a car despite living in a capital with good public transport.
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Old April 23rd, 2015, 12:41 AM   #31337
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In Italy most young people purchase their first car only when they start to work. It's not only a matter of money, as used cars can be purchased for cheap, but of usefulness. When they are at home with their parents, they borrow their car(s), and when (if) the stay away from home for studying, they commute by PT and foot (university students usually live in cities, so they have good PT available and many services within walking distance).
Even if everybody above 18 is legally an adult, one starts a real "adult life" only when (s)he moves away from his\her family, usually with the partner and children. Before you still rely a lot on your parents and you have many less things to d compared to a father or mother.
When you have a family you have a lot of different responsibilities: going to work, bringing kids to school and back, sport, shopping (including carrying bulky items), free time, holidays, going to officies for bureaucratic things, going to the doctor,... and you need to be in different places within a short time, so having a car allows you to be more flexible. You will still use PT when it's more convenient than driving, but owning a car allows you to choose each time.
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“The transponder’s personalised signal would be picked up when the car passed through an intersection, and then relayed to a central computer which would calculate the charge according to the intersection and the time of day and add it to the car’s bill” - Nobel Economics Prize winner William Vickrey, proposing a system of electronic tolling for the Washington metropolitan area, 1959
In real life, electronic toll collection was first introduced in Bergen, Norway in 1986, and well into the 21th century many countries still struggle to implement it.
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Old April 23rd, 2015, 12:50 AM   #31338
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But I still see diferences - e.g. people in West are more conscious. If a young graduate doesn't need car, they don't purchase it. Unlike that, here a young 18 years old graduate buy car as early as it is possible. Especially used cars are incredibly cheap here. It might be the different mind-set and surely the fact, public transport operators fail to keep the young (most potential) passengers.
It is quite certainly the difference in costs of having a car and driving license that is the reason for this.
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Old April 23rd, 2015, 01:00 AM   #31339
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I understand and I am sure that electric cars will be popular at certain point in future. But I think the overall average engine power will decrease.

There are some studies, especially in west Europe pointing out the fact, that young people in age of 18 are no more interested in ownership of a car - they need to utilize their time during travelling and driving is just waste of time. They are looking for good-equipped and reliable PT with wi-fi connection.

I can't consider the credibility of these studies as here goes: the greater power you have, the higher class you belong
The computer driven car (i.e. automatic car) will change the car ownership statistics and the whole car landscape in general much more than anything else. There will be also huge synergies with the electric vehicle. Together this will also change the public transport landscape dramatically.

I got this funny idea now about the long distance travelling. E.g. you could easily create sort of switching rest areas around the electric car infrastructure. The automatic car brings you to the rest area, you got the time to rest, and in the meantime another fresh car will take the place of the old car to take you further, the old car then powers up and waits for another customer. Of course baggage would be a hassle. But with less demand for the car ownership due to the existence of the automatic cars, this could be quite feasible solution for the electric cars long distance travelling.

Automatic car means not only a car that drives without a human driver. It also means a car that is constantly connected to the network, adjusting routes, times, connections, sharing, availability, etc online to just move you from point A to point B.
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Old April 23rd, 2015, 02:53 AM   #31340
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Tesla spotted (A1 Slo)

I don't recognize anything in this tiny pic.
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