Tampa Bay's Economy

[HARTride 2012]

Crist signs Florida tuition increase

The Associated Press

Published: June 3, 2009

TALLAHASSEE - Florida's state universities will be able to increase tuition rates up to 15 percent annually until they reach the national average under a law signed by Gov. Charlie Crist.

Crist also signed laws this week that will strengthen the financing of a school voucher program, draw down an additional $400 million in federal stimulus money for unemployment compensation and make human trafficking a state crime.

The governor, though, vetoed a bill that would have delayed from 2014 until 2025 a requirement to install fire sprinklers in condominium common areas.

Crist, university officials and the Florida Student Association supported the tuition bill, saying rates that now are among the nation's lowest must go up to improve quality, help pay for need-based scholarships and stop a brain drain of faculty to states that pay better.

The 15 percent maximum includes across-the-board tuition increases ordered by the Legislature. This year, lawmakers have approved an 8 percent statewide increase. Each of the 11 public universities now can add a differential of 7 percent.

The 8 percent increase will boost tuition for a student taking the average 30 credit hours in a year by $197 for a total of $2,658. At 15 percent, the increase would be $369, for a $2,830 total.

The national average is $6,585, more than twice Florida's tuition even with a full 15 percent increase this year.

The new law replaces one that gives only the five largest universities authority to go up by 15 percent annually but with a total cap of 40 percent - still well below the national average.

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2009/jun...se/news-metro/

[HARTride 2012]

Tuesday, June 2, 2009, 11:33am EDT | Modified: Wednesday, June 3, 2009, 2:00am
Partnership scorecard shows Tampa Bay ranking on the riseTampa Bay Business Journal - by Margaret Cashill Staff writer

Tampa Bay’s overall ranking among six regions has climbed from last to third since the fall, showed the results of the Tampa Bay Partnership’s spring 2009 Regional Economic Scorecard.

The report rated Tampa Bay — along with Atlanta, Charlotte, N.C., Dallas, Jacksonville and Raleigh-Durham, N.C. — in the categories of employment and work force, income and productivity, housing, innovation, education and transportation.

Tampa Bay is not doing particularly well, but the other regions are doing comparatively worse, said Gary Sasso, president and chief executive officer of Carlton Fields PA and business intelligence chair for the Tampa Bay Partnership.

Florida was the “first in the tank” when signs of an economic downturn appeared, Sasso said. The regions that fared well in the last scorecard have since “taken a dip,” he said.

Sasso, along with Steve Mason, Tampa Bay Partnership chair and president and chief executive officer of BayCare Health System, presented the results to about 20 business leaders at a meeting Tuesday morning.

In the overall ranking, Tampa Bay tied Atlanta for third, while Raleigh-Durham ranked first, Dallas second, Jacksonville fifth and Charlotte sixth.

Although Tampa Bay’s overall indicators were down, of the 21 indicators that contain updated data, eight improved, four declined and nine were unchanged.

In the employment and work force ranking, Tampa Bay climbed from sixth to fourth, although Sasso noted the ranking is relative and the region’s economy is still struggling.

Tampa Bay dropped from third to fourth in its income and productivity ranking and placed last in the average wage category ranking.

The region’s housing rank moved up from last to third mainly because housing values had dropped, Sasso said.

The region ranked fifth in innovation, in part because it has only one major university, the University of South Florida, to compete for grants, Sasso said.

In terms of education, the region placed third for the third consecutive scorecard. The number of area high-school graduates increased, which is possibly a reflection of the reduced number of jobs, Sasso said.

The region climbed from last to fourth place in the category of transportation, a category in which several indicators, including congestion, commute time and vehicle miles traveled per capita, had no new data available. In terms of transportation investment per capita, Tampa moved from fourth to first.

To address the issues revealed in recent scorecards, the Tampa Bay Partnership is launching a three-year strategic plan called “A Model for Prosperity,” which will map out a vision for growth through innovation, human capital, infrastructure and quality places, a release said.

Click here to download the scorecard.


http://tampabay.bizjournals.com/tamp...1/daily19.html

[DShenise]

June 7, 2009
Economic View
Why Home Prices May Keep Falling
By ROBERT J. SHILLER
HOME prices in the United States have been falling for nearly three years, and the decline may well continue for some time.

Even the federal government has projected price decreases through 2010. As a baseline, the stress tests recently performed on big banks included a total fall in housing prices of 41 percent from 2006 through 2010. Their “more adverse” forecast projected a drop of 48 percent — suggesting that important housing ratios, like price to rent, and price to construction cost — would fall to their lowest levels in 20 years.

Such long, steady housing price declines seem to defy both common sense and the traditional laws of economics, which assume that people act rationally and that markets are efficient. Why would a sensible person watch the value of his home fall for years, only to sell for a big loss? Why not sell early in the cycle? If people acted as the efficient-market theory says they should, prices would come down right away, not gradually over years, and these cycles would be much shorter.

But something is definitely different about real estate. Long declines do happen with some regularity. And despite the uptick last week in pending home sales and recent improvement in consumer confidence, we still appear to be in a continuing price decline.

There are many historical examples. After the bursting of the Japanese housing bubble in 1991, land prices in Japan’s major cities fell every single year for 15 consecutive years.

Why does this happen? One could easily believe that people are a little slower to sell their homes than, say, their stocks. But years slower?

Several factors can explain the snail-like behavior of the real estate market. An important one is that sales of existing homes are mainly by people who are planning to buy other homes. So even if sellers think that home prices are in decline, most have no reason to hurry because they are not really leaving the market.

Furthermore, few homeowners consider exiting the housing market for purely speculative reasons. First, many owners don’t have a speculator’s sense of urgency. And they don’t like shifting from being owners to renters, a process entailing lifestyle changes that can take years to effect.

Among couples sharing a house, for example, any decision to sell and switch to a rental requires the assent of both partners. Even growing children, who may resent being shifted to another school district and placed in a rental apartment, are likely to have some veto power.

In fact, most decisions to exit the market in favor of renting are not market-timing moves. Instead, they reflect the growing pressures of economic necessity. This may involve foreclosure or just difficulty paying bills, or gradual changes in opinion about how to live in an economic downturn.

This dynamic helps to explain why, at a time of high unemployment, declines in home prices may be long-lasting and predictable.

Imagine a young couple now renting an apartment. A few years ago, they were toying with the idea of buying a house, but seeing unemployment all around them and the turmoil in the housing market, they have changed their thinking: they have decided to remain renters. They may not revisit that decision for some years. It is settled in their minds for now.

On the other hand, an elderly couple who during the boom were holding out against selling their home and moving to a continuing-care retirement community have decided that it’s finally the time to do so. It may take them a year or two to sort through a lifetime of belongings and prepare for the move, but they may never revisit their decision again.

As a result, we will have a seller and no buyer, and there will be that much less demand relative to supply — and one more reason that prices may continue to fall, or stagnate, in 2010 or 2011.

All of these people could be made to change their plans if a sharp improvement in the economy got their attention. The young couple could change their minds and decide to buy next year, and the elderly couple could decide to further postpone their selling. That would leave us with a buyer and no seller, providing an upward kick to the market price.

For this reason, not all economists agree that home price declines are really predictable. Ray Fair, my colleague at Yale, for one, warns that any trend up or down may suddenly be reversed if there is an economic “regime change” — a shift big enough to make people change their thinking.

But market changes that big don’t occur every day. And when they do, there is a coordination problem: people won’t all change their views about homeownership at once. Some will focus on recent price declines, which may seem to belie any improvement in the economy, reinforcing negative attitudes about the housing market.

Even if there is a quick end to the recession, the housing market’s poor performance may linger. After the last home price boom, which ended about the time of the 1990-91 recession, home prices did not start moving upward, even incrementally, until 1997.

Robert J. Shiller is professor of economics and finance at Yale and co-founder and chief economist of MacroMarkets LLC.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/07/bu...gewanted=print

And the hits just keep on coming......

[HARTride 2012]

Residents weigh in on proposed budget cuts
Wednesday, June 10, 2009

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY (Bay News 9) -- Hillsborough County residents weighed in on officials' plans to slash programs as part of sweeping budget cuts.


And they are not happy.

The cuts would total $140 million and slash up to 900 jobs. Everything from Lowry Park Zoo to daycare and after-school programs and parks and recreation would lose money.

At a public hearing Wednesday night, residents spoke out about the proposed cuts.

"I feel parks and recreation should not be cut,' said one commenter. "Cutting it would get kids into a lot of trouble. I want you to think as a parent and as employee. Think about all these kids with their parents who are pleading with you guys to save these programs. "

Still, Hillsborough County leaders have said there is no way to avoid serious cuts to the budget.

Another public hearing is scheduled for Tuesday night at 6 p.m.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2...ed+budget+cuts

[HARTride 2012]

City wastewater rates could rise by a third over next 3 years

By CHRISTIAN M. WADE | The Tampa Tribune

Published: June 18, 2009

TAMPA - City residents might have to dig deeper into their pockets to pay for sewer service later this year.

Mayor Pam Iorio wants to increase sewer rates by nearly 34.5 percent over the next three years to cover rising costs and revenue declines in the wastewater department.

Bonnie Wise, the city's finance director, told city council members today that increased expenses coupled with rising debt from outstanding bonds means the wastewater department would not be able to meet operating expenses within the next two years.

To cover the shortfall, the Iorio administration has proposed increasing rates by 14.5 percent through 2010; 12 percent in 2011 and 8 percent in 2012.The proposal also would increase a surcharge on customers outside city limits from 18 percent to 25 percent.

Figures provided by the city indicate the average customer pays roughly $33.60 a month. After three years, that bill would be about $45.

"This is a horrible time to be presenting a rate increase, we know that," Wise said.

Wise said skyrocketing cost of chemicals used to treat wastewater as well as steadily increasing energy costs are straining the sewer department's $98.7 million budget.

The pending closure of the Smithfield Foods meat packing plant, which for years trucked hundreds of thousands of gallons of industrial-strength wastewater to Tampa's Howard F. Curren wastewater treatment plant for processing, will mean $800,000 less revenue.

Hillsborough County also plans to end a contract with the city to treat wastewater from Brandon, which will mean $2.5 million less for the department beginning next year.

Insurance and pension costs for the wastewater department are projected to increase by nearly $1.5 million next fiscal year, Wise said, which has added to the financial burden.

The number of accounts also have declined by 1.5 percent this year, Wise said.

"We're not happy about this at all," said Ralph Metcalf, director of the city's wastewater department. "But without these rate increases, we will run out of money in 2011."

Tampa's wastewater rates, which are still considered among some of the lowest in the Bay area, were last increased in 2006 by 5 percent and 15 percent in 2004.

Council members could hold a vote on the proposed increases in late-August, following two public hearings. The rate increases would have to be included in the 2010 budget.

"This is a tough pill to swallow," Councilman John Dingfelder said. "It's a huge increase."


Reporter Christian M. Wade can be reached at (813) 259-7679

http://southtampa2.tbo.com/content/2...r-next-3/news/

[HARTride 2012]

Hav-A-Tampa closes its factory, ending an era for the local cigar industry and the city it made synonymous with stogies
By Ileana Morales and Janet Zink, Times Staff Writers
In Print: Wednesday, June 24, 2009

TAMPA — They made their first cigar in Tampa in 1902.

In July, they will make their last.

A piece of Tampa history was extinguished Tuesday when the parent company of Hav-A-Tampa cigars announced it will close its local production plant, near E Broadway Avenue, leaving almost 500 employees jobless.

"It's not just us. It's everybody in the business," said Rick Mc*Kenzie, senior vice president of human resources for Altadis U.S.A. "Is there an easy answer? I don't know of one."

The company will continue to make the Hav-A-Tampa brand in Puerto Rico, McKenzie said.

McKenzie blamed the closure on government policies that group cigarettes, chewing tobacco and cigars under the label of tobacco and increasingly regulate them all.

He said the one that really hurt came in April when a federal tobacco tax hike took effect to pay for the State Children's Health Insurance Program.

A 5-cent tax was bumped up to about 40 cents on large cigars, with a lesser increase for smaller cigars. The money provides health insurance to 11 million low-income children.

• • •

When Hav-A-Tampa opened more than 100 years ago, Tampa was known as Cigar City.

"For a long time, because of the word Tampa being in the name of the company, they were synonymous not only with cigars but Tampa-made cigars," said Rodney Kite-Powell, curator at the Tampa Bay History Center.

"They were one of the few companies started early on that was owned by American-born businessmen, and they also were one of the first companies to bring machines into the factories,'' he said. "That kind of revolutionized the business for good or for bad, depending on who you ask."

The company, also the makers of Tampa Nugget, Tampa Sweet and Phillies cigars, was locally owned until 1997, when Tabacalera of Madrid, Spain's largest tobacco company, bought it.

Two years later, Tabacalera merged with a French tobacco giant to form Altadis S.A.

The two companies combined cigar operations to create Altadis U.S.A., and England's Imperial Tobacco bought it in 2008.

The closure of Hav-A-Tampa means just one sizable cigar-making factory remains in Tampa: J.C. Newman Cigar Co., with about 150 employees.

"We're the last of the Mohicans," said Bobby Newman, company executive vice president.

"It's a sad day for Tampa," Newman said. "Tampa used to be the cigar capital of the world, and Hav-A-Tampa was a big player in the industry."

• • •

Local retail cigar businesses say the tax has hurt them, too.

At Ybor Cigars Plus, Paula Moreno let eight employees go this year. "That's eight families," she said. "If we close, it's 15 employees. That's 15 families with no income."

She has reduced her work force but added entertainment. Live music helps. New drink specials written on notebook paper stand on tables next to thick, glass ashtrays.

And there's increasing Ybor competition. A block away, NicaHabana Cigars opened less than a month ago.

Tobacco is all Maria Galeano knows. Her father farmed it. She has worked in factories since she was 16. But her hours at her last cigar job were cut down to 20 a week. She needs to support herself, five children and a pregnant daughter-in-law. Money for a house went to the new business.

And so, the unsteady industry moves on, leaving behind the Hav-A-Tampa factory. The nondescript industrial building on Riga Boulevard is so far east of Ybor City, it is nearly in Brandon. And the brand that once made its hometown synonymous with cigars puts out the light on a period of Tampa history as rich as a hand-rolled corona.

McKenzie said employees weren't surprised about the closing but by how soon it came.

Stephen Villane started packing cigars in the Hav-A-Tampa factory more than two years ago.

"It's just been downhill," Villane said. "The tobacco industry's frowned upon. Everyone knew what was going to happen."

Times researcher Shirl Kennedy and staff writer Jeff Harrington contributed to this report, which uses information from the Associated Press. Ileana Morales can be reached at (813) 226-3403 or imorales@ sptimes.com.



[Last modified: Jun 24, 2009 09:47 AM]

http://www.tampabay.com/news/busines...cle1012864.ece

[DShenise]

This bites, its when all the little pieces of history just get slowly chipped away, like when Whaley's closed.

[randommichael]

It's sad but in reality this company wasn't locally owned any more. Some foreign company bought it and these things happen.

[DShenise]

But the brand was, its like if InBev bought Coca-Cola and chucked the brand in favor of some Belgian cola no one heard of. Or say some restaurant chain buying up the Columbia to either re-brand it or close it.

[ChicagoNative]

Originally Posted by DShenise

This bites, its when all the little pieces of history just get slowly chipped away, like when Whaley's closed.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't they reopened on West Kennedy?

[JBrisco]

Damn. I've never smoked a Hav-A-Tampa leaf before, I really wanna start using Tampa cigar blunts but I've heard they aren't good if you like to roll your own cigars.
Anyway, this is really sad.
I don't understand how you can Hav-A-Tampa that's been made in Peurto Rico, which isn't where Tampa is.

[HARTride 2012]

Pinellas County to lay off workers in record numbers
Wednesday, June 24, 2009

PINELLAS COUNTY (Bay News 9) -- Due to an $85 million budget shortfall, almost 340 Pinellas County employees are being laid off.

This is the last week for many Pinellas County employees, and hundreds more will soon be without work.

Dena Williams has worked for the Pinellas County Clerk of the Circuit Court for the past three years, but after Friday she will be filing for unemployment.

Williams is one of 50 employees being laid off in that department alone.

"Actually it's been very distressing to find out I'm laid off," Williams said. "I mean a future employer isn't going to believe I'm still 29, plus I'm profoundly hard of hearing and it's going to be difficult to find future employment."

The clerk's office is one of the first to experience cuts because it works under the state's budget schedule, which starts July 1.

Shanna Benedetti was notified about two weeks ago she's losing her job processing claims and so far she hasn't had any luck finding new employment.

"It's going to be very, very hard," Benedetti said. "It's a very competitive market out there."

This week's layoffs are just the first round for Pinellas. The remainder will take effect in September.

The county has been holding workshops and has notified all the employees being laid off as far in advance as they can to give them time to start looking.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2...record+numbers

[jonknee]

Originally Posted by HARTride 2012

"Actually it's been very distressing to find out I'm laid off," Williams said. "I mean a future employer isn't going to believe I'm still 29..."

What a bizarre statement, what does being laid off have to do with believing someone's age? Does she think the three years on the job aged her profoundly?

[Jasonhouse]

^I think she was suggesting that she is disabled, and so it's going to be really hard to find a job even though she's only 29.

[smiley]

Well, if the government (politicians) would have saved money when there was a surplus instead of renegotiating contracts (buying off) with all the unions so that when the inevitable downturn came 1) they would have more money to continue services and 2) these people may have found other, actually productive, jobs. Not to mention creating an economy that doesn't just run on development . . . but so be it.

[HARTride 2012]

The government spent too much money on luxuries when they had a surplus. Now they cry cause their in a pile of debt that they helped cause.

[HARTride 2012]

Florida unemployment rises to 10.6 percent in June

By Jeff Harrington, Times Staff Writer
In Print: Saturday, July 18, 2009

Despite signs the recession is easing, Florida's unemployment rate made an unexpectedly large jump last month, fueling predictions the state could break modern-era jobless records set in 1975.

On Friday, Florida officials reported the state's unemployment rate catapulted to 10.6 percent in June, the highest in 34 years, with the Tampa Bay area among the leaders in job losses.

The Florida Economic Estimating Conference, consisting of various state economists and financial staff, met Friday to update an already-out-of-date prediction from March that unemployment would top out at 10.2 percent in early 2010. No consensus had been reached by late Friday, but some economists say it's increasingly likely state unemployment could top 12 percent.

Rebecca Rust, chief economist with the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation, said it's possible unemployment will surpass Florida's 11.9 percent peak during the 1975 recession, "but we're going to hope stimulus funds help pull us out."

Prior to the '70s, analysts would have to stretch to the Great Depression for higher levels of joblessness. But the methodology for estimating unemployment was different then, making direct comparisons difficult.

The state's jobless figure for June, up from a revised 10.3 percent a month earlier, represents 970,000 out-of-work Floridians in a statewide workforce of 9.19 million.

In the Tampa Bay region, unemployment jumped a half percentage point, from an adjusted 10.6 percent in May to 11.1 percent. Hernando County, where unemployment reached 13.1 percent, continued to be the hardest hit in the region.

Michael McHugh, business development director for Hernando County, said Hernando's heavy dependence on the construction industry made it one of the first to feel the recession's bite. And a summertime drop-off in tourism hurts employment prospects even more.

"It's very hard to look at these numbers month to month,'' McHugh said.

Sean Snaith, director of the University of Central Florida's Institute for Economic Competitiveness, was somewhat surprised by the latest numbers — not that unemployment continues to drift up, but that the jump was so sizable.

"If you're in search of green shoots in the economy, the labor market is not the place to look," Snaith said. "That earth has been salted by this recession."

Over the past year, the bay area has shed 55,400 jobs, second among Florida metro areas only to Miami-Fort Lauderdale's drop of 96,400 jobs. All told, there are about 147,000 bay area residents counted as unemployed.

Overall, Florida has been losing jobs at a quicker pace than the national average. The national unemployment rate was 9.5 percent for June.

Friday's news was simultaneous with national reports raising hopes that the recession may be in its final throes: an earnings boost at some megabanks and an unexpected jump in housing construction in June to the highest level in seven months.

Rust cited several economic pluses in Florida: housing starts and housing sales are both up month over month and foreclosures are down; tax revenues came in slightly higher than expected; and the state's employflorida.com job site posted 300,000 openings in the month of June.

But often in recessions, unemployment continues to rise or remains high even after the economy starts improving. Nationally, the unemployment rate is widely expected to top 10 percent early next year.

Florida's unemployment rate could rise another few percentage points before we're through, economist Scott Brown with Raymond James Financial in St. Petersburg said Friday.

"It's anybody's guess if it's going to top out at 12 or 13 percent. It's hard to put a fine point on it," Brown added.

"This may not be even a jobless recovery. This could be a job-loss recovery, like we saw after the 2001 recession where we kept losing jobs even after the economy recovered."

Adding to the job market frustration is the rising tide of long-term jobless. As part of the federal stimulus package, states are receiving hundreds of millions of dollars to extend coverage for the unemployed who have exhausted regular insurance benefits while still unable to find work.

But a report Friday from the National Employment Law Project argues that aid isn't enough. Barring a dramatic turnaround in hiring, the group estimates that 540,000 Americans will exhaust their unemployment benefits by the end of September, and 1.5 million, including more than 130,000 Floridians, will run out of coverage by year's end.

"It is clear we are coming up on a tidal wave of need for more extensions and help from the federal government," said Andrew Stettner, deputy director of group, an advocacy group for low-wage workers that tracks unemployment data.

The housing bust paved the way into the recession three years ago, but it's since morphed into a widespread downturn.

One of the few exceptions in Florida, the health care and social assistance sector, is up a meager 1 percent in jobs year over year. One subset of that category sticks out: there are 6,100 more jobs in nursing care facilities than a year ago, a 6.5 percent increase.

Times staff writer Barbara Behrendt contributed to this report. Jeff Harrington can be reached at jharrington@sptimes.com or (727) 893-8242.

Jobless rates
Sampling of unemployment rates, listed as percentages, throughout Florida:
Hillsborough 10.7
Pinellas 10.9
Citrus 11.8
Pasco 12.2
Hernando 13.1
Liberty

(lowest statewide) 5.5
Flagler (highest statewide) 15.5
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater 11.1
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach 10.7
Orlando-

Kissimmee 10.8
Tallahassee 7.6
Cape Coral-Fort Myers 13.0
Statewide average 10.6
Jobless rates
Sampling of unemployment rates, listed as percentages, throughout Florida:
Hillsborough 10.7
Pinellas 10.9
Citrus 11.8
Pasco 12.2
Hernando 13.1
Liberty

(lowest statewide) 5.5
Flagler (highest statewide) 15.5
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater 11.1
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach 10.7
Orlando-

Kissimmee 10.8
Tallahassee 7.6
Cape Coral-Fort Myers 13.0
Statewide average 10.6


Numbers of Note

392,800



Number of jobs Florida has lost over the past year

88,500 Lost jobs in professional and business services

86,300 Lost jobs in trade, transportation and utilities

80,400 Lost

jobs in construction

10,000 Added jobs in health care and social assistance, the state's only growing sector

$100M

Amount in extended unemployment benefits paid out to Floridians as of Friday

31,513 Number of Floridians expected to exhaust extended unemployment benefits through September.

131,893 Number of Floridians expected to exhaust extended unemployment benefits through December.

Sources: Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation; Florida Employment Law Project

[Last modified: Jul 17, 2009 09:11 PM]

http://www.tampabay.com/news/busines...cle1019282.ece

[HARTride 2012]

Next collapse may be worse

By SHANNON BEHNKEN

sbehnken@tampatrib.com

Published: July 22, 2009

TAMPA - The weakening commercial real estate market is braced for a bust that experts say could cause even more damage to the local economy than the housing meltdown.

"Any projects built in the last five years, especially those built near new residential developments, are at risk," said Shari Olefson, a Tampa real estate lawyer with Fowler, White and Boggs. "I'm hearing from a lot of owners who just want to walk away, just as homeowners are turning over the keys."

Florida cities already are among the nation's hardest-hit by home foreclosures. Similar problems in the commercial real estate market would cause the recovery of the economy to take even longer. That's worrisome because estimates call for the commercial real estate market, valued at about $6.7 trillion nationally, to see half of its loans due during the next three years.

At the same time, U.S. banks have been charging off soured commercial mortgages at the fastest pace in nearly 20 years, according to a recent analysis by The Wall Street Journal. At the current pace, losses on loans to finance offices, shopping malls, hotels, apartments and other commercial property could reach about $30 billion by the end of 2009.

All of this is a recipe for disaster for local and regional banks, which funded the majority of commercial projects. Compounding the problem is falling real estate values and tenants who don't pay their rent.

"We got overheated," said Scott Clendening, president of the Florida Gulf Coast Commercial Association of Realtors. "We don't have 1,000 people a day moving in to Florida anymore, so retail is going to suffer."

Industry leaders have estimated that as many as 200,000 businesses and 10 percent of the nation's shopping malls will shut their doors during the next year.

Even landlords able to make ends meet may soon run into trouble, said Christopher Jones, who owns shopping centers, office buildings and apartments in the Tampa Bay area.

The loan on his Largo shopping plaza, for example, is up for renewal next year. He has never missed a payment, but still fears he could lose the property in foreclosure. That's because lease rates have dropped from $16 a square-foot to $11 a square-foot, and the vacancy rate has increased. The value of the property likely will be less than what he paid for it a year and a half ago, he said.

"So why would my bank, or any other bank, renew the loan?" Jones said. "They may renew it only if I bring a half a million dollars or more to the table. If I can't do that, though, I'm in a mess, and they're in a mess."

Part of the problem, Olefson said, is that credit is tight and lenders either will be unwilling to refinance commercial projects, or the projects won't qualify because owners owe more than the loan is worth.

In some cases, lenders are requiring the loan be paid early. Some commercial loans include clauses that give lenders the right to call the loan in early if the vacancy rate rises to a set percentage.

Lease agreements also can give landlords headaches. Some tenants have clauses in their contracts that would give them reduced or free rent if the vacancy rate rises or if the mix of tenants changes.

"Some companies have staffs that tour the country and keep track of this," Olefson said.

Clendening said he hopes that lenders will be more flexible and work out new loan terms with tenants.

"The banks have gotten their butts kicked on residential loans, and they don't want to put commercial loans on their books, too," he said.

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2009/jul...se/news-metro/

[HARTride 2012]

Poor economy causes shifts in Bay area visitors industry

By TED JACKOVICS | The Tampa Tribune

Published: July 31, 2009

TAMPA - On Monday, Troy Manthey approved bills and signed checks as owner of Yacht StarShip Dining Cruises.

Two days later, Manthey donned work clothes to change the engine oil on the 135-foot yacht.

On Thursday, he worked the evening shift as the ship's captain.

Manthey wears many hats since the recession claimed two of his three vessels and nearly 100 of his 125 employees.

He reflects a trend among business operators who cater to the visitors industry, which is evolving as travelers' interests and spending change. Many insiders say the industry, an economic mainstay in the Bay area, won't operate again as it has in the past.

Jim Bartholomay, general manager of the Renaissance Tampa Hotel International Plaza, calls it "business unusual."

"We are resetting our business," he told industry officials recently at the Hillsborough County Hotel and Motel Association's annual trends and forecasting forum. "It's time to think about the future, not the way it was."

Evolving businesses

That doesn't mean everything will change. Beaches will remain full, Busch Gardens will draw crowds, shops will sell T-shirts and restaurants will host snowbird specials — if they successfully contend with new competitors and changes in consumer tastes.

But new venues and bargain opportunities are arriving on the hospitality scene, as businesses target those within a two- to three-hour drive, trying to convert local "daycation" residents who relax at a movie or museum into "staycation" patrons who spend a couple of days at a local hotel.

Major new venues have recently opened, such as the Tampa Bay History Center and Clearwater Beach's Beach Walk along with the nearby Sandpearl Resort.

Others in the works include the new Tampa Museum of Art and Glazer Children's Museum in Hillsborough County, along with the new Salvador Dalí Museum and Aqualea resort across the Bay.

Both Hillsborough and Pinellas visitors bureaus have adopted new approaches to market the diversity of opportunities.

For Hillsborough, that is essential to compete with Orlando-area mega-hotels such as the Rosen Shingle Creek and Gaylord Palms, which challenge the Tampa Convention Center's bread-and-butter meetings business.

Visit St. Petersburg/Clearwater is rebranding Pinellas County to differentiate it from other Florida beach destinations, promoting experiences such as Tampa Bay Rays games, community festivals and shopping in Dunedin and Tarpon Springs.

Less obvious are the subtle changes small businesses are making to account for evolving customer tastes during the economic downturn, as consumer trends in fashion, image and taste become more fleeting.

Until recently, Bluewater Outfitters & Gallery on Corey Avenue in St. Pete Beach concentrated on a full line of Guy Harvey apparel, artwork and household accessories known for Harvey's signature marine life sketches.

"Anyone in business has to throw away last year's playbook," said store owner Fred Megna, a retired US Airways operations manager at Tampa International Airport. "People are spending down, buying what they need, not what they want. A lot of people are deferring purchases that are not necessary."

The result is that Megna had to rebalance his merchandise to lower-cost goods without sacrificing quality. He's downplaying Harvey artwork that sold from $500 for framed prints to $4,500 for originals.

He has also reduced the price of the prints by 40 percent by not including frames. To add variety to the classic $20 Guy Harvey T-shirt offerings, Megna is adding David Dunleavy marine design apparel, even as Harvey goods have become fashionable among Pinellas teenagers.

Trickle-down effect

What's at stake locally in the transformation of the visitors industry resonates far beyond those businesses typically associated with the 12 million annual overnight visitors to Hillsborough and Pinellas counties.

Occupancy this year through May is down 12.2 percent in the Tampa-St. Petersburg market, industry consultant Smith Travel Research reported. Revenue per available room for the same period is down 16.8 percent.

Timely employment data is difficult to derive, but tourism generated 21,479 jobs in Hillsborough County the first quarter of 2009, down 9.6 percent from a year ago, Florida State University professor and visitors industry consultant Mark Bonn said.

"But it's not just the impact of losing a chambermaid job at a hotel," said Steve Hayes, executive vice president of Tampa Bay & Co., Hillsborough's visitors bureau.

"The wages the chambermaid makes go to area gas stations, to supermarkets, to medical offices, to apartments. They support a long line of employment."

Likewise, the construction industry has suffered.

An oversupply of hotel rooms in the area, planned when the economy was strong, led to a 65.6 percent decline in hotel rooms under construction in June.

When Tampa International Airport pushed back development of its North Terminal from 2015 to 2020 or beyond because of a lack of demand — travel is down 10.3 percent this year — the repercussions rippled throughout the construction industry, which now is offering discount bids for airport and Port of Tampa projects.

And the decline in bed tax collections on hotel guests in the Bay area means less money is available to support community activities and civic groups, such as the Tampa Bay Black Heritage Festival and the Apollo Beach Chamber of Commerce.

Creative marketing

The tentacles of the visitors industry have a long reach, but so do factors that affect travel demand, most of which are beyond the control of local businesses.

Rick Weed, a retired General Motors and Delphi Corp. executive, has visited St. Pete Beach with his family every year since 1979, meeting up to 70 or so beach acquaintances who have made a habit of returning to Pinellas County.

Weed favors the Bon-Aire Resort motel, with 81 units, and his family spends as much as $5,000 in the area during a two-week stay.

"But if current negotiations with 15,000 retired, salaried General Motors Corp. employees turn out badly, that could end our trips," Weed said.

It's not just value-conscious, cash-strapped leisure travelers, however, who might stay away. Corporate planners eschew resorts because of the public outcry over pricey corporate travel when red ink flows widely.

That's good for Tampa, since the city generally is not perceived as a resort destination, said Norwood Smith, vice president of sales for Tampa Bay & Co.

To counteract the reluctance of travelers, local businesses are turning to more unconventional tactics, including the Internet, to draw Tampa area residents.

"Our general business plan is not resetting how we do things, but we are using methods like social media marketing with Twitter, which generated many of our 800 attendees to a recent beer fest," said Thom Stork, chief executive of The Florida Aquarium, whose attendance this year is nearly flat compared with 2008.

Manthey, who operates from a dock near the aquarium, has bought into enhanced Google listings so that anyone searching for "romantic dinner" and "Tampa" will find the Yacht StarShip business on the first page.

His most creative marketing is anchoring the yacht offshore within sight of Bay area commuters, emblazoned with a 60-foot banner that says "Yacht StarShip.com Dinner $39.95."

Staying in business enables him to continue helping with the county's economic development recruiting, taking corporate visitors for pro bono orientation cruises to show off Tampa's skyline from the water.

Manthey acknowledges that the staff cuts were painful, but they enabled him to keep his business open.

"Personally, my options were good — I can pilot any size boat that can sail into the Port of Tampa," he said. "But we spent eight years building a brand here and creating a love for the community, so I didn't want to lose that."

Reporter Ted Jackovics can be reached at (813) 259-7817.

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2009/jul...st/news-money/

[HARTride 2012]

Postal Service considering hundreds of closures
Tuesday, August 4, 2009

BAY AREA (Bay News 9) -- The weather may not slow down your mail but the economy just might.

Facing mounting losses, the U.S. Postal service is mulling shutting down at least 700 post offices across the country.

The list could grow to 1,000.

The post office has been struggling with a sharp decline in mail volume as people and businesses switch to e-mail both for personal contact and bill paying.

The agency is facing a nearly $7 billion potential loss this fiscal year despite a 2-cent increase in the price of stamps in May, cuts in staff and removal of collection boxes.

Post officials sent a list of nearly 700 potential closing candidates to the independent Postal Regulatory Commission for review.

The list of potential closings includes the offices at MacDill Air Force Base, Port Tampa, Seminole Heights, Temple Terrace and West Tampa.

In Pinellas, the Central, Euclid, St. Pete beach and Pass-a-Grille stations are on the consideration list.

Postal Vice President Jordan Small told a congressional subcommittee that local managers will study activities of approximately 3,200 stations and branches across the country considering factors such as customer access, service standards, cost savings, impact on employees, environmental impact, real estate values and long-term Postal Service needs.

No changes are expected before the end of the current fiscal year on Sept. 30.

"We anticipate that out of these 3,200 stations and branches, under 1,000 offices could be considered as viable candidates to study further" for closing, Small said.

In addition, Postmaster General John Potter has asked Congress for permission to reduce mail deliveries from six days a week to five.

Last year, mail volume fell by 9.5 billion pieces to a total of 203 billion pieces. It is expected to fall by 28 billion pieces this year to a total of 175 billion pieces.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2...ds+of+closures

In my area, the Port Tampa post office seems so underutilized these days that I wouldn't be surprised if they closed. The Interbay post office gets far more traffic because it serves a larger area and most people in Interbay/Fair Oaks/Palma Ceia/South WestShore go there anyways.