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Old June 10th, 2008, 10:30 AM   #1
lang_bang
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Kinh tế Việt Nam đang giảm trầm trọng?

Lăi suất ngân hàng đă ở mức "cực kỳ nguy hiểm".
Thị trường chứng khoán giảm trầm trọng.
Giá hàng hóa liên tục leo thang
Giá bất động sản sẽ tiếp tục giảm sâu
Giá vật liệu xây dựng tiếp tục tăng
Lạm phát cao nhất trong ṿng 13 năm
Giá dầu tăng, ngư dân "án binh bất động"
Các đơn vị xe buưt TPHCM... méo mặt!
Chao đảo v́ giá nhiên liệu
Doanh nghiệp khan vốn, lỗ nặng
Khủng hoảng giáo dục
Hoạt động khoa học công nghệ c̣n yếu kém

Last edited by lang_bang; June 10th, 2008 at 10:40 AM.
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Old June 10th, 2008, 11:41 AM   #2
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Inflation could've been controlled early last year, but no, they didn't give a damn so now it's running out of control, dragging the whole economy down. They are still very inexperienced economic managers.
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Old June 10th, 2008, 05:44 PM   #3
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the major reason is due to inflation and a short-term view of the authorities, I believe so!
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Old June 10th, 2008, 05:57 PM   #4
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Vietnam's Troubled Economy
By MARTHA ANN OVERLAND/HANOI
A year ago, Vietnam was being hailed as the next Asian miracle, a success story to match the rise of the Asian tigers of the 1990s and more recently the stunning growth of China and India. Thanks to economic reforms, the communist country was attracting record amounts of foreign investment. The economy expanded by 8.5% last year—among the fastest rates in the region—and housing prices doubled and tripled, driven up in part by frantic buyers who stood in line to snap up condos before they had even been built. The country's nascent stock market was minting millionaires. In Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, their flashy new cars clogged roads better suited for bicycles.

But a funny thing happened on the way to prosperity. Halfway through 2008, Vietnam's authoritarian government finds itself grappling with soaring prices, collapsing markets and an increasingly restive workforce. Inflation, now running at an annual rate of 25%, is eating up much of the gains made by citizens over the last several years. Vietnam's stock market, which has fallen 58.5% since January, currently holds the unhappy title of being the worst-performing in the world in the last 30 days. Citing the government's difficulty in reining in inflation, Moody's, which grades creditworthiness, lowered Vietnam's ratings outlook last week to negative from positive. Poor ratings signal that banks may have trouble meeting their financial obligations, undermining investors' confidence in the country. In a nutshell, the economy overheated and the government was too slow to respond, says Jonathan Pincus, chief economist for the United Nations Development Program in Vietnam. "It's how we got into this problem," he says.

Inflation is causing trouble worldwide, of course, but it's particularly acute in Vietnam, where prices for virtually everything, from food to fuel to housing, have been spiking. Much of Vietnam's recent growth has been driven by its expanding manufacturing sector, but now assembly line workers' salaries are being outpaced by basic living costs. The result has been a rash of strikes—unusual in communist Vietnam—that are hurting the country's image as a haven for multinational companies looking for alternatives to China for manufacturing sites. Over the last six months, there have been more than 300 strikes throughout the country. Most last only a few days, with management usually agreeing to small pay increases. In April, a company that manufactures sneakers for Nike agreed to give workers a 10% increase, or about an additional $6.30 a month. But that amount is not enough to make much of a difference when workers go to the grocery store.

Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung told the country's National Assembly on May 31 that the number of households going hungry has doubled in one year. "The government understands and shares with the people," Dung said. "And sees it is their responsibility to try to best curb inflation." So far, Hanoi has moved to cool the economy by requiring banks to increase their reserves; the central bank has also raised interest rates to 12%. But inflation is being made worse by Vietnam's weakening national currency. The Vietnamese dong has fallen roughly 1.5% against the dollar in the past six months. But the recent dismal economic news is threatening to weaken it further. This past week the dong jumped from 16,120 to the dollar to 18,500 on the black market as traders rushed to put their dong into dollars and gold. The currency swoon makes imports, from food to commodities, more expensive. Jocelyn Tran, whose Ho Chi Minh City company contracts with local factories to supply apparel to U.S. stores, says the price of Chinese-made yarn has jumped 15% this year. "Our factories are absorbing it by cutting out the profit margin," says Tran. Even though some factories have raised wages, she complains that workers are still going on strike.

The government in Hanoi has been slow to tackle some of the problems in part because battle lines are no longer neatly drawn between Communist Party hardliners and the party's more liberal economic reformers. Decision-making has been fragmented to the point of paralysis, says Pincus. For example, no single entity is in control of monetary policy. In a system that works on consensus— not just among the party but committees, ministries and provinces—it has been difficult to get leaders to make tough decisions. "It's always harder to distribute the pain," says Pincus. "It's much easier to distribute the goodies."

To tackle inflation, the government knows it needs to raise interest rates and rein in spending, particularly by state-owned enterprises that have used state financial institutions as their own piggy banks. But any sudden moves can also threaten to strangle businesses and scare away new investors, which Vietnam must avoid if it is to meet its revised 7% growth rate. Still, while the numbers look bad now, Vietnam's long-term economic outlook is good, says Tom Nguyen, head of global markets at Deutsche Bank in Ho Chi Minh City. Some think the government's ability to deal with public dissent swiftly and harshly lessens the threat that strikes will turn into violent protest or will encourage calls for political change. Vietnam remains a stable country of 85 million people with a young and educated workforce. "It is unreasonable for any of us investors to expect this development process not to have challenges," says Nguyen. "But some of the heartache has to fall in the lap of the people who had unrealistic expectations." Unfortunately, most of the heartache will be felt by Vietnam's poor as they struggle to put food on the table.
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Old June 10th, 2008, 08:44 PM   #5
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Vietnam economy is raising but the results go beyond all controls. It's difficult to manage it now. I think Vietnam will meet more events. The economy must face the truth.

Last edited by marymonto; June 10th, 2008 at 08:51 PM.
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Old June 11th, 2008, 07:32 AM   #6
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Inflation comes from weak control of banking system, bad economic forecast, non effective states own groups ..., hope near future will be better.
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Old June 11th, 2008, 07:40 AM   #7
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Mịa, mấy cái thèng "chiên ra" này biết ǵ về kinh tế VN mà phao tin làm mất ḷng quân đây . Mịa, tụi nó giỏi thế th́ đă ngăn chận được sự khủng hoảng kinh tế Mẽo hiện nay roài

Kinh tế Mẽo bây giờ đang tuột dốc, xăng th́ lên gần $6/gallon, vật giá th́ cứ leo thang lên trời, gần 10 triệu dân mất việc, mấy chiên ra này giỏi thế th́ đă ngăn chận được cái thiên tai này roài
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Old June 11th, 2008, 08:55 AM   #8
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Khủng hỏang là tốt, là cơn sóng mạnh đánh tan những sai lầm, những lầm lạc của kinh tế-xă hội VN ngày nay để từ đó người ta rút kinh nghiệm xây dựng lại vững mạnh hơn. Tôi mong khủng hỏang đến càng nhanh càng sâu càng tốt. Không có sự đi lên nào mà không phải trả giá.
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Old June 11th, 2008, 09:42 AM   #9
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Kinh tế Việt Nam c̣n hoang vu như xa mạc, mà đă khủng hoảng, hiển nhiên là do tài lănh đạo của đảng rồi.

Theo thống kê của VC, năm ngoái riêng người Sài G̣n nhận từ người thân từ nước ngoài tới $5bl. Số tiền này có thể thành lập công ty toàn cầu, mua nửa nước đại loại Tagikistan, Kirgizia ở Trung Á...Huyền thoại kế tiếp của VC, hay tiền dân Việt chỉ tiêu vào xây nhà ống?
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Old June 11th, 2008, 10:11 AM   #10
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cái thằng sqd lại giở giọng chí phèo ngông cuồng ra. Kinh tế đang có vấn đề. Nhưng việc như tờ báo này đăng là hoàn toàn đúng. Các chuyên gia kinh tế trong nước cũng như chính phủ đều thừa nhận. Quắc cái mồm ra mà sủa bậy!
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Old June 11th, 2008, 10:12 AM   #11
lang_bang
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Thất bại là mẹ thành công, có thất bại mới thấy chỗ sai chỗ đúng. Ok, quá hay, vỗ tay.
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Old June 11th, 2008, 10:19 AM   #12
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Well, to me, these are just the shorterm crisis. It's all trigger from the big player like Japan, Korea, and the U.S b/c they are pulling out the money to support their own struggle. In parallel, the vietnam domestic consumption and production will balance out its own inflation;therefore, If we are looking at the vietnam economy in the longer term, 5 - 10 yrs, it will be in better shape comparing to the current crisis at other countries are facing like Philipine, Thai,.. So if i have the money right now, i will bet in vietnam economy
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Old June 11th, 2008, 11:05 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sqd View Post
Mịa, mấy cái thèng "chiên ra" này biết ǵ về kinh tế VN mà phao tin làm mất ḷng quân đây . Mịa, tụi nó giỏi thế th́ đă ngăn chận được sự khủng hoảng kinh tế Mẽo hiện nay roài

Kinh tế Mẽo bây giờ đang tuột dốc, xăng th́ lên gần $6/gallon, vật giá th́ cứ leo thang lên trời, gần 10 triệu dân mất việc, mấy chiên ra này giỏi thế th́ đă ngăn chận được cái thiên tai này roài
Không có Mỹ, th́ những của khỉ như mi giờ vẫn chưa rụng đuôi ở CHXHCNVN.

Hiện tượng như mi chỉ chứng tỏ cộng sản chỉ có thể mang lại tự do cho các nô lệ cũ, con cháu của chúng cơ hội lưu manh hoá.
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Old June 11th, 2008, 11:15 AM   #14
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Vietnam may be first domino among Asian economies

Fitch’s lowering of its outlook on Vietnam’s sovereign rating Thursday could be a sign of more weakness to come for many of Asia’s economies and currencies, as record oil prices complicate efforts to control inflation.

Fitch Ratings lowered the outlook on Vietnam’s BB-minus rating to negative from stable, saying that authorities had not dealt quickly or strongly enough with inflation, potentially posing risks to banking system’s stability.

The agency cited the delicate position the government is now in, riding a fine line between containing price rises and setting off a sharp economic slowdown.

Some observers are even pointing to a potential currency crisis, given Vietnam’s growing current account deficit, weakening fiscal position and limited foreign exchange reserves, on top of 25 percent annual inflation, the second-worst in Asia.

Some of Asia’s largest economies are also grappling with the same risks.

Although none look as vulnerable as Vietnam, some are set for their sternest test since the Asian financial crisis of 1997.

“I think [we could see] a much deeper and more prolonged slowdown than people are currently anticipating that lasts until the end of 2009, rather than being done shortly,” said Bill Belchere, regional economist with Macquarie in Hong Kong.

The Philippines, South Korea and India share some of the problems that pushed Vietnam into its downward spiral.

In all three expensive oil imports are eroding their current accounts and dragging down currencies.

Weak currencies are fuelling inflation, piling pressure on central banks to raise interest rates.

Higher rates would hurt economic growth and stock markets, triggering a flight of capital needed to finance the trade gap.

“Then you can see a fairly sharp reversal in expectations around the behavior of the currency,” said Peter Redward, head of rates strategy at Barclays Capital.

“The currencies’ weakness then starts feeding on itself in terms of pushing inflation up. That’s a significant risk.”

Growing divergence

The Korean won has fallen 9.4 percent this year as the country prepares to run up its first current account deficit since the Asian crisis.

The Philippine peso is down nearly 5.7 percent and the Indian rupee 7.9 percent.

By contrast, currencies of economies with solid trade surpluses have fared better.

The Singapore dollar has risen 5.2 percent, the Malaysian ringgit 1.7 percent and the Taiwan dollarabout 6.6 percent.

“I think divergence will be a theme moving forward,” Belchere said.

“Southeast Asia is losing its policy flexibility.”

Nowhere is that threat more pronounced than in the Philippines, said Peter Redward, head of rates strategy at Barclays Capital.

With countries such as the Philippines coming under increasing fiscal stress from their oil and food subsidies, they will likely have to issue more debt, which could lead to a higher likelihood of default, Redward said.

Redward said he observed a “domino effect” working through Asia, as currency weakness spread from countries with the most exposure in their balance of payments to oil prices, such as Korea, India and the Philippines, to those with trade surpluses such as Singapore, Malaysia and China.

Oil prices key

Key to the extent of the spread will be the price of oil.

“If oil prices were to come back down to $100 a barrel, then I think a lot of the pressure that these countries are under would dissipate very quickly,” Redward said.

“If it was to go up to $150 a barrel, then we would find that more dominoes would fall,” raising the risk of a harder landing for the region, he said.

Mirza Baig and Dennis Tan, strategists with Deutsche Bank in Singapore, expect most Asian currencies, apart from the Chinese yuan, the Malaysian ringgit and Singapore dollar, to weaken this summer, particularly if oil prices extend their rise.

“We think the broader macro backdrop has reached a tipping point, where the cushion on balance of payments and scope for policy makers to retain a ‘watch and wait’ stance on monetary policy has worn out,” they said in a note to clients.

While stronger economies in the region would probably see their currencies, and exports, hit to some extent by the weakness in other countries, Belchere said he thought the region would avoid anything like the 1997 financial crisis.

“It comes down to the old Mark Twain saying: ‘Virtue untested is not a virtue.’ It’s going to be tested now. The policy guys are going to have to respond,” he said.

“I think Asia will get to the right place. Will it be a straight line? I’m not so certain.”

Source: Reuters
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Old June 11th, 2008, 11:38 AM   #15
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tin tốt lành là hôm nay chứng khoán đă có dấu hiệu phục hồi, ḷng tin đang dần trở lại, v́ các nhà đầu tư đang tin tưởng vào các biện pháp của chính phủ.
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Old June 11th, 2008, 12:48 PM   #16
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Ai nói thế...đừng phán bừa chứ. Chứng khóan giảm rồi lại lên thôi. CK ở Viêt Nam impact và liên quan không lớn đối với nền kinh tế. Ai đầu tư ck? những ngừơi có thu nhập dư dả mới mua ck đầu tư, ck xuông họ nháo nhào rút tiền ra đầu tư cái khác. Ck lên họ mua theo phong trào. CK giảm 50% cũng chẳng có ai tự tử cả. Đó là tt chứng khóan VN.
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Old June 11th, 2008, 04:07 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SaiGoNeseKiD View Post
Ai nói thế...đừng phán bừa chứ. Chứng khóan giảm rồi lại lên thôi. CK ở Viêt Nam impact và liên quan không lớn đối với nền kinh tế. Ai đầu tư ck? những ngừơi có thu nhập dư dả mới mua ck đầu tư, ck xuông họ nháo nhào rút tiền ra đầu tư cái khác. Ck lên họ mua theo phong trào. CK giảm 50% cũng chẳng có ai tự tử cả. Đó là tt chứng khóan VN.
Đầy thằng có dư giả ǵ đâu mà vẫn đầu tư đấy thôi.

Mỗi ngày nhịn nửa bữa cơm để mua cổ phiếu!
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Old June 11th, 2008, 04:17 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SaiGoNeseKiD View Post
Ai nói thế...đừng phán bừa chứ. Chứng khóan giảm rồi lại lên thôi. CK ở Viêt Nam impact và liên quan không lớn đối với nền kinh tế. Ai đầu tư ck? những ngừơi có thu nhập dư dả mới mua ck đầu tư, ck xuông họ nháo nhào rút tiền ra đầu tư cái khác. Ck lên họ mua theo phong trào. CK giảm 50% cũng chẳng có ai tự tử cả. Đó là tt chứng khóan VN.
CK làm ǵ có lên. Hôm nay vẫn giảm đấy chứ . Có điều thị trường đă nhộn nhịp trở lại, khối lượng giao dịch tăng gấp 10 lần. Động cơ ǵ khiến người ta quay trở lại, chẳng lẽ ko phải là niềm tin sao
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Old June 11th, 2008, 04:53 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SaiGoNeseKiD View Post
Vietnam may be first domino among Asian economies

Fitch’s lowering of its outlook on Vietnam’s sovereign rating Thursday could be a sign of more weakness to come for many of Asia’s economies and currencies, as record oil prices complicate efforts to control inflation.

Fitch Ratings lowered the outlook on Vietnam’s BB-minus rating to negative from stable, saying that authorities had not dealt quickly or strongly enough with inflation, potentially posing risks to banking system’s stability.

The agency cited the delicate position the government is now in, riding a fine line between containing price rises and setting off a sharp economic slowdown.

Some observers are even pointing to a potential currency crisis, given Vietnam’s growing current account deficit, weakening fiscal position and limited foreign exchange reserves, on top of 25 percent annual inflation, the second-worst in Asia.

Some of Asia’s largest economies are also grappling with the same risks.

Although none look as vulnerable as Vietnam, some are set for their sternest test since the Asian financial crisis of 1997.

“I think [we could see] a much deeper and more prolonged slowdown than people are currently anticipating that lasts until the end of 2009, rather than being done shortly,” said Bill Belchere, regional economist with Macquarie in Hong Kong.

The Philippines, South Korea and India share some of the problems that pushed Vietnam into its downward spiral.

In all three expensive oil imports are eroding their current accounts and dragging down currencies.

Weak currencies are fuelling inflation, piling pressure on central banks to raise interest rates.

Higher rates would hurt economic growth and stock markets, triggering a flight of capital needed to finance the trade gap.

“Then you can see a fairly sharp reversal in expectations around the behavior of the currency,” said Peter Redward, head of rates strategy at Barclays Capital.

“The currencies’ weakness then starts feeding on itself in terms of pushing inflation up. That’s a significant risk.”

Growing divergence

The Korean won has fallen 9.4 percent this year as the country prepares to run up its first current account deficit since the Asian crisis.

The Philippine peso is down nearly 5.7 percent and the Indian rupee 7.9 percent.

By contrast, currencies of economies with solid trade surpluses have fared better.

The Singapore dollar has risen 5.2 percent, the Malaysian ringgit 1.7 percent and the Taiwan dollarabout 6.6 percent.

“I think divergence will be a theme moving forward,” Belchere said.

“Southeast Asia is losing its policy flexibility.”

Nowhere is that threat more pronounced than in the Philippines, said Peter Redward, head of rates strategy at Barclays Capital.

With countries such as the Philippines coming under increasing fiscal stress from their oil and food subsidies, they will likely have to issue more debt, which could lead to a higher likelihood of default, Redward said.

Redward said he observed a “domino effect” working through Asia, as currency weakness spread from countries with the most exposure in their balance of payments to oil prices, such as Korea, India and the Philippines, to those with trade surpluses such as Singapore, Malaysia and China.

Oil prices key

Key to the extent of the spread will be the price of oil.

“If oil prices were to come back down to $100 a barrel, then I think a lot of the pressure that these countries are under would dissipate very quickly,” Redward said.

“If it was to go up to $150 a barrel, then we would find that more dominoes would fall,” raising the risk of a harder landing for the region, he said.

Mirza Baig and Dennis Tan, strategists with Deutsche Bank in Singapore, expect most Asian currencies, apart from the Chinese yuan, the Malaysian ringgit and Singapore dollar, to weaken this summer, particularly if oil prices extend their rise.

“We think the broader macro backdrop has reached a tipping point, where the cushion on balance of payments and scope for policy makers to retain a ‘watch and wait’ stance on monetary policy has worn out,” they said in a note to clients.

While stronger economies in the region would probably see their currencies, and exports, hit to some extent by the weakness in other countries, Belchere said he thought the region would avoid anything like the 1997 financial crisis.

“It comes down to the old Mark Twain saying: ‘Virtue untested is not a virtue.’ It’s going to be tested now. The policy guys are going to have to respond,” he said.

“I think Asia will get to the right place. Will it be a straight line? I’m not so certain.”

Source: Reuters
đây là bài phân tích ta posted bằng tiếng Việt mà có em nói người ta "chờ nước đục thả câu", và có em không chịu nổi cái chữ "lột chức" nên đă "bức súc" lên tiếng, nhưng lại nói ngược lại ta là người "bức súc" có tin nổi không?

đây là bài viết "phân tích" mấy cái thằng viết báo nước ngoài nó chẳng có câu ǵ để thả cả, và kinh tế VN đối với nó không quan trọng. kinh tế VN là tṛ hề nếu so với những nước trong vùng. VN mới ngoi lên mộ chút thôi

Mỹ là thằng có nhà có tiền, có bạn bè giàu có, bây giờ nó thất nghiệp th́ nó vẫn có tài sản để sống qua cơn hoạn nạn
Việt Cộng đi ở nhà mướn, bạn toàn bạn nghèo, bây giờ thất nghiệp th́ chỉ có ngáp ngáp thôi làm sao mà so sánh được với lạm phát của Mỹ?
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Old June 11th, 2008, 05:37 PM   #20
Siddude
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Vietnam's Central Bank is not independent unlike Western countries like the US or UK. Therefore, when it comes to monetary policy to fight inflation, the central bank policymakers have no authority or power to rectify the situation. Inflation, as the great economist, Milton Friedman stated is a monetary phenomenon.

The Communist government controls the central bank in Vietnam. It therefore will pursue a policy of expedient for political reasons not on rational monetary policy independent from political interference.
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