Washington state weather & meteorology thread

[Joosanova]

Hey guys,

Just a quick update:

Friday afternoon through the wee hours of Saturday morning areas from about 300 feet ASL and above can expect to see some rain/snow mix or just straight snow as a very cold pool of air ( NOT Arctic air ) but VERY cold air is poised to move rapidly over the area behind a vigorous storm system dropping SE out of the GOA ( Gulf of Alaska )....

Most folks will see nothing more than a very cold ( Lumpy rain ) while others above the aforementiond elevation heights will see a better chance of mixed precip or just straight snow.

This is NOT I repeat NOT a widespread snow event and 99% of you will NOT see any accumulation at ALL....

Any mixed precip or snow will be confined to a very strong PSCZ that will wobble between DT seattle and Everett starting around mid afternoon Friday and continue into the wee hours of Saturday morning.

This event is nothing more than a teaser as after Saturday morning we dry out briefly and then are succomed to an even stronger system that is looking like it could be our first major flooding event of the season.

Latest GFS and ECMWF 4km resolution models indicate precipatable water rates from Sunday morning through Tuesday afternoon in the range of 2.5-5 inches of rain for Western Washington and Oregon with the most and heaviest precipitation occuring over the West slopes of the Olympics and Cascades.....

We also warm up with the system coming in on Sunday as well so any snow chances will be confined to the higher elevations in the Cascades and olympics above 7k feet....

Starting mid next week we return to a colder and wetter pattern with copious amounts of snow for both mountain ranges.

I expect ALL major ski areas to open up by thanksgiving or shortly thereafter.

Enjoy and stay tuned....

Joos!!!!

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Cool beans!

[Bond James Bond]

Neato!

At least we're off to an early start . . . . . not that that necessarily means anything. :-\

[RMacherat]

Western Alaska is prepping for the "biggest storm in decades."

[Bond James Bond]

A couple big storms coming our way:
http://www.seattlepi.com/local/412315_storms15.html

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Monday-Tuesday will be reminiscent of the big December 2007 Storm.

[RMacherat]

Any of the weather guys remember what the millibars were for the Columbus Day storm? That's the reminiscent I worry about.

[CrazyAboutCities]

Originally Posted by WESTSEATTLEGUY

Monday-Tuesday will be reminiscent of the big December 2007 Storm.

I thought it happened last December 2006 not 2007?

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

You're right it was 06 not 07.

[jessejb]

You should full-screen this storm pic from 2001.

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Stor...sAK005_G10.jpg

[Joosanova]

Originally Posted by RMacherat

Any of the weather guys remember what the millibars were for the Columbus Day storm? That's the reminiscent I worry about.

Central pressure @ landfall was 959 Millibars.

Equivilant to a Cat 4 hurricane.

The Hannakauh eve storm in 2006 registered a paltry 976 Millibars...

So nowhere near the strength of the Columbus day storm.

[RMacherat]

Thanks .. I guess that gives us an idea of how bad it can get.

[pwalker]

Originally Posted by Joosanova

Central pressure @ landfall was 959 Millibars.

Equivilant to a Cat 4 hurricane.

The Hannakauh eve storm in 2006 registered a paltry 976 Millibars...

So nowhere near the strength of the Columbus day storm.

My understanding of the '62 Columbus Day storm was it was a remnant of a Pacific typhoon. This type of scenerio rarely invades the pacific NW. How often does this actually happen? Is is it like a 100-year flood? If so, then it probably will happen again, perhaps in our lifetimes. Thoughts?

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Actually we receive old remnants of tropical systems all the time. Although they are significantly weakened upon US landfall, their origins lie in the tropics of the western pacific. The storm we will receive tomorrow was actually a depression/tropical storm in the pacific around a week ago. It's interesting to watch these systems form in the tropical western pacific, deteriorate, then reform as larger systems as they travel to North America and Alaska.

[pwalker]

Originally Posted by WESTSEATTLEGUY

Actually we receive old remnants of tropical systems all the time. Although they are significantly weakened upon US landfall, their origins lie in the tropics of the western pacific. The storm we will receive tomorrow was actually a depression/tropical storm in the pacific around a week ago. It's interesting to watch these systems form in the tropical western pacific, deteriorate, then reform as larger systems as they travel to North America and Alaska.

Yeah, I get that...but my point is the '62 Columbus Day storm maintained its strength and hit Western WA and OR almost like a hurricane. If this has happened in the past, it most likely will happen again. My question is, how often?

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Well storms like Columbus Day of '62 are rare, but most likely occur here every 40-50 years.

[Joosanova]

Originally Posted by pwalker

Yeah, I get that...but my point is the '62 Columbus Day storm maintained its strength and hit Western WA and OR almost like a hurricane. If this has happened in the past, it most likely will happen again. My question is, how often?

The Columbus day storm did have remnants of a typhoon during it's infancy but what really caused it to intensify so raidly was massive cyclogenisis due to severe convergence in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere around the storm as it approached the west coast and was further aided by 2 seperate jet streams with near vertical wind shear.

The Northern jet alllowed for the track of the storm and the southern jet allowed for the rapid intensification at the surface all the while creating a wind tunnel effect due the sharp pressure rises ahead of the storm as well as immediately behind the Parent Low once it made landfall.

Hope this explanation helps!!!

[pwalker]

Originally Posted by Joosanova

The Columbus day storm did have remnants of a typhoon during it's infancy but what really caused it to intensify so raidly was massive cyclogenisis due to severe convergence in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere around the storm as it approached the west coast and was further aided by 2 seperate jet streams with near vertical wind shear.

The Northern jet alllowed for the track of the storm and the southern jet allowed for the rapid intensification at the surface all the while creating a wind tunnel effect due the sharp pressure rises ahead of the storm as well as immediately behind the Parent Low once it made landfall.

Hope this explanation helps!!!

It most certainly does...if you are meteorologist!

Again, how often does this happen? An earlier poster said 40-50 years, not sure based on what. There probably is not a good history of such a thing, due to the lack of population in W. WA and W. OR before the last century.

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Well the Hanukkah Eve storm, although not directly related to tropical entities, produced similar wind speeds to the Columbus Day storm. Another windstorm previous Columbus Day was the Great Gale in 1880. So one could assume that these types of widespread storms can be felt every 40-50 years or in some cases even longer.

[pwalker]

Originally Posted by WESTSEATTLEGUY

Well the Hanukkah Eve storm, although not directly related to tropical entities, produced similar wind speeds to the Columbus Day storm. Another windstorm previous Columbus Day was the Great Gale in 1880. So one could assume that these types of widespread storms can be felt every 40-50 years or in some cases even longer.

Well, if true, then we are due. Another reason to get the 520 bridge project done quickly. (However, it obviously survived the '62 storm, perhaps because it was still brand new).