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Old October 14th, 2008, 01:40 AM   #441
germantower
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Steve don´t start to act emo. Somehow i am 90% sure the Kingdom Tower will rott in the never built setcion or will get built dramatically shorter than now proposed. :-) So no reason for whining. Dubai will still has the WTB for a long time...
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Old October 14th, 2008, 01:56 AM   #442
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Quote:
Originally Posted by germantower View Post
Steve don´t start to act emo. Somehow i am 90% sure the Kingdom Tower will rott in the never built setcion or will get built dramatically shorter than now proposed. :-) So no reason for whining. Dubai will still has the WTB for a long time...
Maybe it will but that would only happen if they change their mind and not decide to build it. The main thing I'm saying is if they WANT they can start building right now and have all the contracts in place very quickly. In Dubai I'm not so sure it's so easy anymore.
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Old October 14th, 2008, 02:18 AM   #443
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Something for people to think about and what this means for projects like this.


Dubai May Need Help From Abu Dhabi to Fund Borrowing
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=worldwide

Quote:
By Matthew Brown
Oct. 13
Bloomberg


Dubai may need help from Abu Dhabi and the United Arab Emirates government to finance a surge in borrowing that paid for the world's tallest tower, palm tree- shaped man-made islands and stakes in banks worldwide.

Dubai's ``potential reliance'' will be ``most significant'' in coming years, Moody's Investors Service said in a report today. Government-controlled companies owe at least $47 billion, more than Dubai's gross domestic product, and they will continue to accumulate debt at a faster pace than the economy grows, the New York-based rating firm said.

``These companies that are based in Dubai have become larger than Dubai itself,'' said Giyas Gokkent, chief economist at National Bank of Abu Dhabi, the U.A.E.'s second-largest commercial bank by assets. ``If anything were to go wrong with any of these companies, Dubai does not have the wherewithal to deal with it.''

State-owned Dubai World paid about $5.1 billion for almost 10 percent of Kirk Kerkorian's MGM Mirage last year; the price has tumbled since to $16.80 from $84. DP World, the government- run company that bought Peninsula and Oriental Steam Navigation Co. for $6.8 billion in 2006, has slumped 55 percent this year on the Dubai International Financial Exchange.

Ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum has borrowed to replace Dubai's dwindling revenue from oil, investing to boost earnings from tourism and finance. State-owned carrier Emirates has increased its fleet to the largest in the Middle East, in a bid to double tourists per year to 15 million by 2015. Dubai Holding LLC, which groups assets belonging to Sheikh Mohammed, owns hotel chain Jumeirah Group.


... more at the link above
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Old October 14th, 2008, 05:28 AM   #444
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Assa View Post
I seem to remember having this same discussion 6 months or so ago. Culwulla is right, 500m+ for megatall and 300m for supertall. The 300m category works best because there is something special about a building that is 1000ft tall. You can't downgrade classics like ESB.
I agree completely.
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Old October 14th, 2008, 06:06 AM   #445
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dubai_Steve View Post
I think the Nakheel tower has the potential to go to 1600m by adding more sections if needed or if the global demand increases. I think the kindgdom tower could rise faster however as it s much thinner, so could become the next tallest tower and Dubai may have none for a while
Amen for that
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Old October 14th, 2008, 09:42 AM   #446
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skyscraperpage has new tower render, burj dubai's top half floors look very thin compared to this one.

http://skyscraperpage.com/diagrams/?8978577
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Old October 14th, 2008, 09:45 AM   #447
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Quote:
Originally Posted by buildmilehightower View Post
skyscraperpage has new tower render, burj dubai's top half floors look very thin compared to this one.

http://skyscraperpage.com/diagrams/?8978577
We won't know how wide it is until we know how tall it is.
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Old October 14th, 2008, 10:56 AM   #448
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dubai_Steve View Post
I think the Nakheel tower has the potential to go to 1600m if the global demand increases.
Even in this financial crisis, I don't think it will be a problem to find tenants for that 1000m tower.

However, the big problem is to find tenants for the dozens of 200-400m towers around the Big Boy.

A multi billion 1000m tower, in the middle of nowhere wold be very stupid.
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Old October 14th, 2008, 11:29 AM   #449
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Even in this financial crisis, I don't think it will be a problem to find tenants for that 1000m tower.
You think?

19,000 buyers / tenants for 19,000 $5m shoe-box sized apartments?

Where do I sign?
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Old October 14th, 2008, 11:40 AM   #450
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Quote:
Originally Posted by malec View Post
Maybe it will but that would only happen if they change their mind and not decide to build it. The main thing I'm saying is if they WANT they can start building right now and have all the contracts in place very quickly. In Dubai I'm not so sure it's so easy anymore.
I am pretty sure that the involved people really WANT this tower (Kingdom tower) to build. So why aren´t they starting construction yet? Since you mentioned that they can have the contracts and everything in place very quickly.They don´t needed to wait to start construction until the official press release. Mhhhh it´s just the thing, that they want make profit with it. it won´t be a big "advertising object" to call press attention like the Burj al Arab hotel, which was build with the knowledge, that they won´t make any profit with it even if the hotel is rent out for the coming 50 years.
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Old October 14th, 2008, 11:42 AM   #451
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TakeMeHigher View Post
You think?

19,000 buyers / tenants for 19,000 $5m shoe-box sized apartments?

Where do I sign?
There will be no shoe-box sized apartments, but I bet gigant entire floor luxury apartments on the 150-200 floor.

Any time they will find 50 eccentric multi-millionaires, willing to live, or just to have (even for a few days a year) a home on top of the world.

But for the towers around, they will need hundreds of thousands of well payed middle-class employers.
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Old October 14th, 2008, 12:55 PM   #452
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Quote:
Originally Posted by luci203 View Post
Any time they will find 50 eccentric multi-millionaires,
How many of those are there that have also completely lost their marbles? Few people get rich by being eccentric.

Just do some rough maths. They say that there will be 19,000 apartments that cost US$3,500/sqft just to build. Add in a modest profit and that makes a tiny 1,000 sqft apartment sale price guesstimate at maybe US$ 5,000,000.

But consider this; there is a lot more floorspace than 19,000 sqft in that tower so you can multiply that by a factor of three, four... ten.. twenty? A hundred million dollars for a 10,000 sqft apartment - nineteen thousand of them? Just where are these people?

Dubai's development industry is already supported by price speculation, and it looks like that Dubai's development is about to come to a grinding halt if its rulers and developers are not to go spectacularly bust in a way that might make Iceland look like hor deuves.

We should have more respect for the promotors to assume that they will somehow find the finance and take a risk just to show off to their peers.

There is not a single scenario where this tower works financially for the forseeable future - meaning years and years.
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Old October 14th, 2008, 01:12 PM   #453
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Maybe Nakheel won´t make profit wth this tower, but this tower is surrounded by so many other towers that will make profit. Even so much that they won´t loose money if they build the Nakheel tower. We can say: the profit of Nakheel tower´s neighboors, will partly finance this baby.

BTW: i could bet that potential buyers would stay in long queues to buy in this tower.
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Old October 14th, 2008, 01:22 PM   #454
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Why should Nakheel suddenly adopt a suicidal business model? Buildings are financed and appraised one at a time and each is expected to make money not on a 'let's build a mini-city and hope that they come' basis. Nakheel and its funders won't be interested in a loss leader just in case other buildings make money and to suggest so seems to be clutching at straws.

The emerging current situation is that even the small ones won't make money. The Dubai market seems to be heading for either a correction or a collapse.

Last edited by TakeMeHigher; October 14th, 2008 at 01:29 PM.
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Old October 14th, 2008, 01:49 PM   #455
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TakeMeHigher View Post
Why should Nakheel suddenly adopt a suicidal business model? Buildings are financed and appraised one at a time and each is expected to make money not on a 'let's build a mini-city and hope that they come' basis. Nakheel and its funders won't be interested in a loss leader just in case other buildings make money and to suggest so seems to be clutching at straws.

The emerging current situation is that even the small ones won't make money. The Dubai market seems to be heading for either a correction or a collapse.
Actually emaar did exactly what you are saying is a suicidal business model with the burj dubai and made a crap load of money.
Think about this. They have thousands of apartments in towers surrounding the burj dubai. I'm just going to make up numbers here but you'll get the point. Let's say they have 10,000 apartments going for $200,000 dollars each. Now if the burj dubai wasn't there the entire project wouldn't be nearly as good and so they'd have to charge less for all those apartments, say, $150,000 per apartment. Now that's $500m profit right there from nothing at all being sold inside the burj dubai tower. Now I don't know exactly how many apartments there are in the burj dubai complex but I'm sure a lot are more expensive than that and there are more of them as well so that's a conservative estimate.

Now this nakheel project is just a copycat of the burj dubai project, same with the tower in saudi arabia. They want to do the same thing however I don't think it'd be so easy this time.
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Old October 14th, 2008, 02:08 PM   #456
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I understand your point but the big issue that you're missing is just who is going to occupy these apartments? They are being bought by speculators but might they eventually be occupied by goat herds?

When it comes to giving the developer money those very same speculators are relying on credit not cash.

From today's Gulf News:

Quote:
Mohammad Bin Rashid orders Dh70b fund transfer to pump liquidity into banking sector
WAM
Published: October 14, 2008, 09:57


Dubai: His Highness Shaikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice-President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, has ordered a Dh70 billion transfer to the Ministry of Finance to pump liquidity into the banking sector.

The new transfer brings the total emergency funds for the UAE banking sector to Dh120 billion, WAM reported on Tuesday.

The decision to transfer the fund came after guidance from President His Highness Shaikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

Shaikh Mohammad also ordered a committee formed to monitor the implementation of the decision. The committee will consist of the Ministry of Finance, Central Bank and the Ministry of Economy.

Share prices on the UAE and Gulf bourses surged on Monday as governments took decisive action to restore investor confidence in the markets and the financial system.

The UAE on Monday announced it would guarantee all bank deposits including those with foreign commercial banks that have significant retail operations in the country.

The new announcement follows the decision on Sunday by the Cabinet to protect deposits with the local banks.
Emergency funding for banks with a note of caution that there is extra 'off balance' exposure with developers.

I have admiration for the sheer audacity of the Dubai regeneration plan but like everyone else they rely on banking and inward investment from the rest of the globe and with the current world problems we have to wonder how, not if it will grind to a halt.
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Old October 14th, 2008, 02:21 PM   #457
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I forgot to include this snippet from the FT yesterday:

Quote:
Moody's warns on Dubai vulnerability

By Simeon Kerr in Dubai and Andrew England in Abu Dhabi
Sunday Oct 12 2008 12:40
Dubai's debt has soared to about 100 per cent of gross domestic product and continues to grow, leaving it vulnerable to an economic slowdown, according to Moody's.

In a report obtained by the Financial Times, the ratings agency says Dubai would lack the financial muscle to cover its debt in the event of a systemic shock, such as a real estate collapse or an adverse geopolitical event, making it reliant on Abu Dhabi to bail it out.

"Moody's will therefore be increasingly factoring the potential for federal support ... given that Dubai is likely to require federal support in the event of a larger-scale systemic bail-out," the report says.
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Old October 14th, 2008, 02:25 PM   #458
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Do you really think, Nakheel will let invest people that need credits for the investment? :-D

There is a project UC by Nakheel, called "the world" they invited celebrities, rich and famous people to buy the islands. It wasn´t like going to a sales center, saying that person X wants to buy the island of france, and then they make a contract and so on.....and i think they will do its simmilar with this tower. And i hate this whole credit crunch discussion here, there are more than enough rich people around the globe that can efford an apartment or office space in this tower. Even singular persons like Bill Gates or Steve Jobs could buy the entire tower!
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Old October 14th, 2008, 02:42 PM   #459
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EFG-Hermes casts doubt on Nakheel mega-tower

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/53413...eel-mega-tower

View from economic perspective.
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Old October 14th, 2008, 02:53 PM   #460
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this is sick!

And the tower doesn't look good.
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