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Old January 29th, 2009, 08:16 PM   #1301
Neall
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So many death projects... Russia Tower, Chicago Spire, Harbour Tower.
What's next? Burj without complete cladding because Emaar is ruined?
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Old January 29th, 2009, 09:45 PM   #1302
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Every time I hear or read news about the global economy recently, it gets worse and worse. The truth is "we're delaying for one year" is just marketing... they want to keep hope alive, but the truth is anything could be built in this new hold in the ground, and yet nothing might be built. Until the global recession ends AND 1st-world government deficits are paid off in large part, I don't think we are going to see massive investment sprees again... The Dubai Dream™ is on perpetual hold. After what I'm reading now, this tower project is dead - there's no money in the market for such an expensive project. The same office space could easily be built in 3 or 4 300m skyscrapers at much lower cost - and luxury hotels and apartments are not a priority in a recession. Lastly, even if they do eventually revive the NHT project, there's no reason to suppose it will be the same design at all. All they've done is clear the site, ANY proposal could go in it.
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Old January 29th, 2009, 10:20 PM   #1303
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Locke View Post
Exactly, China is experiencing a big slow down, so they are in the same boat, if not worse.
Care to name any Chinese tower on hold? China's economy may be slowing temporarily because of the economic problems, but they aren't shutting everything down, and definitely not when it comes to tower construction! It is mostly low-margin manufacturing that can only survive in good times that is getting hurt. Dubai is a small to medium city that has suffered the drop in oil prices (hurting oil services companies), global property crash, global credit crunch, and decreased demand from buyers. China is much bigger and doesn't suffer from all these problems, so it is better insulated from the damage. Once projects in China start getting cancelled left and right, then I'll agree with your expert "assessment" .
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Old January 30th, 2009, 12:15 AM   #1304
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Emaar is better? I have heard they have serious liquidity problems.

just look their projects how slow, like the Marina Quays, Park Island or the cladding of the Burj Dubai.
the expectation though of many people i know is that this will go a lot further and dubai the country will have to be bailed out by other members of the UAE. dubai has racked up massive losses because, let's face it, speculatively building 1,000 skyscrapers in the desert and hoping rich westerners will move there by their millions is stupid. i haven't really commented on this stuff in these forums because i always thought it was obvious and years of negative posts from me would just have incited flamewars.

one bureau chief in the middle east of a very well known newspaper said to me that they were actually looking towards the sky in dubai just to make sure any of the cranes were still working, such are the expectations the whole thing is collapsing. expect dozens and dozens of half built towers. dubai is going to be hit worst but this is going to happen right across the middle east.

Quote:
Care to name any Chinese tower on hold? China's economy may be slowing temporarily because of the economic problems, but they aren't shutting everything down, and definitely not when it comes to tower construction!
this is the key difference between china and dubai. china is experiencing something like britain did in the industrial revolution, except of course there are more people living there.
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Old January 30th, 2009, 12:28 AM   #1305
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Originally Posted by DXBQuantum View Post
They havent paid most of the contractors yet either!
they usually dont pay the workers, so whats new?
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Old January 30th, 2009, 01:00 AM   #1306
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well the picnic's over but not forever.
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Old January 30th, 2009, 01:01 AM   #1307
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on hold?
noooooo

dammit economical crisis!!!!
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Old January 30th, 2009, 02:03 AM   #1308
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gothicform View Post
the expectation though of many people i know is that this will go a lot further and dubai the country will have to be bailed out by other members of the UAE. dubai has racked up massive losses because, let's face it, speculatively building 1,000 skyscrapers in the desert and hoping rich westerners will move there by their millions is stupid. i haven't really commented on this stuff in these forums because i always thought it was obvious and years of negative posts from me would just have incited flamewars.

one bureau chief in the middle east of a very well known newspaper said to me that they were actually looking towards the sky in dubai just to make sure any of the cranes were still working, such are the expectations the whole thing is collapsing. expect dozens and dozens of half built towers. dubai is going to be hit worst but this is going to happen right across the middle east.

this is the key difference between china and dubai. china is experiencing something like britain did in the industrial revolution, except of course there are more people living there.


Here some fact about Dubai 2008


AED 935 billion trade Dubai's non-oil in 2008


Source: Dubai, UAE Date: Thursday, January 29, 2009


Showed a recent statistic issued by the Department of Statistics of «Dubai World» that the total trade volume of Dubai's non-oil rose by 38% during the last year compared to the same period in 2007, it increased during the last year to 934.7 billion dirhams from 678.5 billion dirhams in the year and preceded by 256.2 billion dirhams.

The first Director of the Department of Statistics «Dubai World», Naseem Al Muhairi, that «the results of last year was very encouraging, especially at the level of direct foreign trade of non-oil, where the results showed that it climbed by 44% compared to the same period the previous year, reaching 612.7 billion dirhams compared to 425.4 billion dirhams in 2007; and the largest percentage of growth in the export sector, which rose by 58% from AED 27 billion to about 42.6 billion dirhams, at 14 billion dirhams, is evidence of the strength of the national economy, while growing imports by 48%, up from 297.7 billion dirhams to 441.4 billion dirhams, and the trade in re-exports increased by 28% from AED 100.6 billion to 128.6 billion dirhams ».

The Mehairi «Foreign trade of Dubai, which includes indirect free areas in the emirate is still on the pace of progressive as well, rising by 29% last year compared with 2007, up from 237.7 billion dirhams to 307 billion dirhams, as imports grew by 33% high of 141.6 billion dirhams to 187.8 billion dirhams, at the time of increased exports by 24% from AED 96.1 billion to 119.1 billion dirhams.

Muhairi pointed out that the volume of trade through the bonded warehouses over the past year has seen a slight decrease of 2% per year compared to the previous, which had dropped from 15.2 billion dirhams to 14.9 billion dirhams, while imports registered a decline of 1% rate from 13.9 to 13.8 billion dirhams billion dirhams, as well as a decline in the volume of exports by 17% from AED 1.3 billion to one billion dirhams ».






http://www.emaratalyoum.com/Articles...9cfa8d3db.aspx
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Old January 30th, 2009, 02:52 AM   #1309
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gothicform View Post
the expectation though of many people i know is that this will go a lot further and dubai the country will have to be bailed out by other members of the UAE. dubai has racked up massive losses because, let's face it, speculatively building 1,000 skyscrapers in the desert and hoping rich westerners will move there by their millions is stupid. i haven't really commented on this stuff in these forums because i always thought it was obvious and years of negative posts from me would just have incited flamewars.

one bureau chief in the middle east of a very well known newspaper said to me that they were actually looking towards the sky in dubai just to make sure any of the cranes were still working, such are the expectations the whole thing is collapsing. expect dozens and dozens of half built towers. dubai is going to be hit worst but this is going to happen right across the middle east.



this is the key difference between china and dubai. china is experiencing something like britain did in the industrial revolution, except of course there are more people living there.
Totally agree,Dubai's economy will totally collapse in the next 6-8 months,half or even more than the half of the skyscrapers are empty,the truth is that Dubai was the biggest field in the world for cleaning dirty money in the last years...now that's over
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Old January 30th, 2009, 04:42 AM   #1310
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Bummer...sure hate to see it stop. I was having a blast watching the boom. Sure was fun while it lasted. This tower woulda been sweet on the skyline...too bad.

Well I guess all the articles were correct. Wonder why they worked so far past the announcement....doesn't make any sense.
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Old January 30th, 2009, 07:39 AM   #1311
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gothicform View Post
the expectation though of many people i know is that this will go a lot further and dubai the country will have to be bailed out by other members of the UAE. dubai has racked up massive losses because, let's face it, speculatively building 1,000 skyscrapers in the desert and hoping rich westerners will move there by their millions is stupid. i haven't really commented on this stuff in these forums because i always thought it was obvious and years of negative posts from me would just have incited flamewars.

one bureau chief in the middle east of a very well known newspaper said to me that they were actually looking towards the sky in dubai just to make sure any of the cranes were still working, such are the expectations the whole thing is collapsing. expect dozens and dozens of half built towers. dubai is going to be hit worst but this is going to happen right across the middle east.



this is the key difference between china and dubai. china is experiencing something like britain did in the industrial revolution, except of course there are more people living there.
Next step is that companies not willing to pay taxes will move to Dubai and fill the towers. The high property prices made it difficult for companies and their employees.

According to Deutsche Bank the economy of the UAE will growth by 3% in 2009. Not bad isn`t it?
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Old January 30th, 2009, 08:31 AM   #1312
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Too early to predict Dubai's demise guys. In this cyclical world where economies expand and shrink, it is no surprise if projects in Dubai will, at current economic pulse, slows down. Dubai's palpability is obviously not a solid one and its weaknesses will be more exposed in the coming months.
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Old January 31st, 2009, 02:05 AM   #1313
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Next step is that companies not willing to pay taxes will move to Dubai and fill the towers. The high property prices made it difficult for companies and their employees.
do you have any idea how many companies will have to do this for dubai to get anywhere? the contractors working on these projects don't believe in the dubai boom and never have, they simply took the money whilst the going was good and kept their mouths shut.

the biggest problem is apparently that dubai has liabilities well in excess of its assets and cannot afford to cover them. the main assets that allowed them to expand so fast were property, except the property has crashed creating a huge hole in their balance sheet.

they've spent a fortune building infrastructure which is now well in excess of what they will need and will have to shut down chunks of it or their losses will go up even more.

most importantly of all, in order to sell this idea of it being a major city dubai has tried to have credibility but now the emporer has no clothes and people can see what's happened. who's going to buy property there? it already had a bad reputation before. i know people who have spent $400,000 dollars on apartments and moved into buildings that have had no functioning air conditioning and the light switches don't work.
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Old January 31st, 2009, 06:45 AM   #1314
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BarbaricManchurian View Post
Care to name any Chinese tower on hold? China's economy may be slowing temporarily because of the economic problems, but they aren't shutting everything down, and definitely not when it comes to tower construction! It is mostly low-margin manufacturing that can only survive in good times that is getting hurt. Dubai is a small to medium city that has suffered the drop in oil prices (hurting oil services companies), global property crash, global credit crunch, and decreased demand from buyers. China is much bigger and doesn't suffer from all these problems, so it is better insulated from the damage. Once projects in China start getting cancelled left and right, then I'll agree with your expert "assessment" .
while no Chinese projects have not been put on hold. there are [B]no new[B] projects being announced. GDP grew by a small margin of 6%, while that would be excellent in any other country its not for the Chinese who need at least a 8% to 9% increase, just to keep up with the population. china is overly dependent on exports especially to on exports to the U.S. what will really make the Chinese the financial superpower is how they alter their economy to today's economic environment. if they change then they have a chance. if they don't, then they will fail the next time.
same goes for dubai, they need to alter their economies away from oil. i think that dubai will achieve this before china gets off the export train.
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Old January 31st, 2009, 07:06 AM   #1315
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should this now be moved to the proposed section?
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Old January 31st, 2009, 02:37 PM   #1316
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Or better
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Old January 31st, 2009, 03:25 PM   #1317
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while no Chinese projects have not been put on hold. there are [B]no new[B] projects being announced. GDP grew by a small margin of 6%, while that would be excellent in any other country its not for the Chinese who need at least a 8% to 9% increase, just to keep up with the population. china is overly dependent on exports especially to on exports to the U.S. what will really make the Chinese the financial superpower is how they alter their economy to today's economic environment. if they change then they have a chance. if they don't, then they will fail the next time.
same goes for dubai, they need to alter their economies away from oil. i think that dubai will achieve this before china gets off the export train.
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=565672

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=745900

No new projects being announced, eh?

And China is much less dependent on exports than other Asian countries; you simply don't know what you're talking about.
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Old January 31st, 2009, 04:22 PM   #1318
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china is overly dependent on exports especially to on exports to the U.S. what will really make the Chinese the financial superpower is how they alter their economy to today's economic environment.
Even if the exports to USA have droped, China's main import (oil) also droped, cos' oil prices droped, so the trade balance is about the same.

About this building:

Burj al Arab was necesary to put Dubai "on the turist map", Burj Dubai was necesary to put Dubai "on the economic map". This building is only about big ego, a VERY expensive construction. Maybe they will find all those many billions to build-it, but I really don't know who will have even more billions to buy-it after is finished.
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Old January 31st, 2009, 07:08 PM   #1319
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Totally agree,Dubai's economy will totally collapse in the next 6-8 months,half or even more than the half of the skyscrapers are empty,the truth is that Dubai was the biggest field in the world for cleaning dirty money in the last years...now that's over
Since you seams to be so knowledgeable of Dubai and probably very well connected and exposed to insiders news and all that, I had some questions to ask but I'm afraid those might be way to simple and boring for your immense level of knowledge.
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Old February 1st, 2009, 03:10 AM   #1320
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I very much doubt this building will ever get built. If they needed the space they would have built half a dozen 150m buildings at a small fraction of the cost as all of the major Chinese cities are doing hundreds of times over.
It doesn't really matter whether or not Dubai's economy is continuing to grow. The boom has led to construction so vastly in excess of demand that the place would need to grow super fast for several years just to create a need for half the buildings going up now, let alone all those planned. These buildings were based on super-high land values which have now been shown to be a speculative bubble.
Now the bubble has been pricked I can't see Dubai's construction booming again for several years, even decades. When the economy booms again (and I don't doubt this will happen fairly soon) Dubaiers will be a lot less likely to pump it all into a real estate bubble.
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