NZ | Population Statistics Thread

[Brisbaner21]

I think New Zealand should have a population thread, just to talk about the local trends and growth dynamics of the different cities and regions of the country. That is one of the good things about New Zealand, cities are spread all over the map, and not concentrated to one area of the country. Just an idea, we have it for Australia, just wondering about New Zealand.

[jarbury]

Good idea.

Quick run down:

NZ's current population: 4,286,129

By region (June 2008 estimates):

Northland Region: 154,700
Auckland Region: 1,414,800
Waikato Region: 402,200
Bay of Plenty Region: 269,900
Gisborne Region: 46,000
Hawke's Bay Region: 152,700
Taranaki Region: 107,500
Manawatu-Wanganui Region: 229,200
Wellington Region: 473,700
Tasman Region: 46,500
Nelson Region: 44,700
Marlborough Region: 44,500
West Coast Region: 32,300
Canterbury Region: 552,800
Otago Region: 203,500
Southland Region: 93,000

Unlike the late 90s and early 00s, all regions have grown in population throughout recent years. From 2007-2008 the Auckland region grew fastest, by 1.5%. Malborough and Canterbury also grew by more than 1%, while Otago grew by 0.9% (large because of the Queenstown-Lakes area).

Total North Island Population: 3,250,700
Total South Island Population: 1,017,300

From www.stats.govt.nz

National population change

New Zealand's estimated resident population was 4,268,600 at 30 June 2008, an increase of 40,300 (1.0 percent) over the June 2007 figure. The population growth in the June 2008 year was lower than the average annual increase of 45,400 (1.1 percent) recorded during the 10-year period ended 30 June 2008.

The population growth for the June 2008 year resulted from a natural increase (excess of births over deaths) of 35,600 people, and a net international migration gain of 4,700 people. The level of natural increase was the highest for a June year since 1973. In contrast, the level of net international migration was the lowest for a June year since 2001.


North Island and South Island populations

The population of the North Island continued to grow at a slightly faster rate than that of the South Island. An estimated 3,250,700 people lived in the North Island at 30 June 2008, an increase of 31,500 (1.0 percent) from 30 June 2007. The estimated resident population of the South Island grew by 8,900 (0.9 percent) in the June 2008 year to reach 1,017,300. At 30 June 2008, 76 out of every 100 New Zealand residents lived in the North Island.


Regional population change

All of New Zealand's 16 regions recorded population increases during the June 2008 year. Auckland retained its position as New Zealand's fastest-growing region, recording population growth of 1.5 percent. Marlborough (1.2 percent) and Canterbury (1.1 percent) also had growth rates above the national average of 1.0 percent. The largest numerical increases in population were in Auckland (20,800), Canterbury (5,900), Waikato (3,600) and Wellington (3,400).

As in the June 2007 year, all 16 regions recorded a natural increase (an excess of births over deaths). However, for 13 regions the level of natural increase was higher in the June 2008 year than in the preceding June year. In numerical terms, the greatest rises in natural increase were in Auckland (up 1,000 from the June 2007 year) and Manawatu-Wanganui (up 300 from the June 2007 year).

In the June 2008 year, seven regions gained population through net migration (international and internal migration combined), while nine regions had a net migration outflow. For the majority of regions, the level of net migration was lower in the June 2008 year than in the preceding June year. However, there was a small increase in the level of net migration for six regions (Gisborne, Taranaki, Manawatu-Wanganui, Nelson, Marlborough and Southland).

At 30 June 2008, Auckland, with an estimated resident population of 1,414,800, was home to about one-third of New Zealand residents. The four northernmost regions (Northland, Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty) contained just over half (53 percent) of New Zealand's population. Canterbury, with an estimated resident population of 552,800, was home to 54 percent of South Island residents.

More detail to come.... demographics is one of my specialties!

[jarbury]

A couple more interesting graphics from Stats NZ

[kegan]

Good idea for a thread.

Maybe we could come up with better urban area definitions - as has been raised in another thread, the Stats NZ urban areas are highly questionable.

Originally Posted by kegan

Just going back to the Stats NZ population estimates.

The Stats "Urban Areas" are dubious at best - in many cases (Christchurch and Wellington included) they include reasonable areas of farmland, lifestyle blocks, etc which is a definition of "urban" that I wasn't previously aware of.

Examples:
Christchurch - fields along the south bank of the Waimakariri west of SH1 bridge, the bed of the Waimak, farmland behind the airport, hills behind Diamond Harbour.
Wellington - Takapu Valley (all lifestyle), land between Pauatahanui and Haywards (rural/lifestyle), Belmont Hills, Horokiwi.

For anyone who is curious to see what is (apparently) urban, the urban areas can be downloaded from Stats NZ for free as ESRI shapefiles (and there is free GIS software available to view them too e.g. QGIS).

I'd like to see the populations minus all this ruralness - unfortunately that probably means waiting for the census as Stats don't seem to release estimates per census area unit.

I might have a look at the GIS side of things when I've got some spare time.

[Brisbaner21]

Glad its somewhat of a hit...

I was curious on this issue. I saw the new stats out for June 2008 and it made me wonder. I was also suprised to see the South Island over the 1 million mark, that is great news!

BTW, could the mods please change the title, if it is a good idea for a thread, then it should have a better title. Maybe New Zealand Population Trends or something around that sort.

Thanks

[DML2]

A good idea indeed

[jarbury]

For Auckland I think the best way of determining that actual city's population is by finding out the population of the area inside the Metropolitan Urban Limits. They're a pretty fixed edge to the city.

[Marky Mark]

Well that looks good for Tauranga .......I would expect Population growth to be down a bit there over the next couple of Years ........could be wrong

Originally Posted by jarbury

A couple more interesting graphics from Stats NZ

[deepred]

Interestingly, Wellington's population stats are skewed by the unevenness of the region's growth. Wellington City and Kapiti are the fastest growing components, whereas the Hutt Valley and Porirua seem to be remaining static or reducing in population.

[metroman]

[I] understood that Porirua was at one stage New Zealand's fastest growing areas.

[jarbury]

Probably in the 1950s and 1960s when the vast tracts of state housing were being built.

[NZer]

I think Tokoroa declined primarily because of job losses at the sawmill(s) in the area.

Wow, look at Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga powering ahead, Whangarei will join them soon.

[jarbury]

The 'golden triangle' of Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga will definitely become more and more New Zealand's engine-room over the next 20-30 years. Hopefully we'll get a good high-speed rail service between the three cities so that they can co-operate far more than they currently do, to everyone's benefit.

[metroman]

You could probably throw Northland into the equation as well. The new rail link to Marden Point and the new town centre which will all be in close proximatey to Auckland as well.

[kegan]

Originally Posted by jarbury

Breakdown of growth in Stats NZ urban areas that are split into zones:

1.5 % Auckland
1.3 % Northern Auckland Zone
1.5 % Western Auckland Zone
1.1 % Central Auckland Zone
1.9 % Southern Auckland Zone

1.3 % Hamilton
1.4 % Hamilton Zone
1.0 % Cambridge Zone
0.8 % Te Awamutu Zone

0.1 % Napier-Hastings
0.0 % Napier Zone
0.2 % Hastings Zone

0.7 % Wellington
0.4 % Upper Hutt Zone
0.1 % Lower Hutt Zone
0.5 % Porirua Zone
1.2 % Wellington Zone

(Source: Stats NZ Subnational Population Estimates at 30 June 2008)

[metroman]

With a new government talking about growth. I am wondering whether New Zealand's projected population over the coming decades increases. At present we are only supposed to hit 5 million and the plateau out. It will be interesting to see how future policy makers and planners view this figure in years to come. I personally believe we should be aiming to grow our population to around 10 million in the next 100 years.

[Svartmetall]

Originally Posted by metroman

With a new government talking about growth. I am wondering whether New Zealand's projected population over the coming decades increases. At present we are only supposed to hit 5 million and the plateau out. It will be interesting to see how future policy makers and planners view this figure in years to come. I personally believe we should be aiming to grow our population to around 10 million in the next 100 years.

100 years is a long time to plan for! I doubt that NZ will ever reach 10 million based upon current projections for the future. It is too isolated.

[jarbury]

I think we might, but only if we end up having to house half the Pacific when their islands get flooded by rising ocean levels.

[Nicco]

Yeah when in a hundred years time, NZ will be completely full of Pacific Islanders...

[jarbury]

I think population growth for New Zealand is OK as long as it's carefully managed. The last thing we want is Auckland to sprawl even further, or any other New Zealand city for that matter. In the long-term we are clearly heading into a time of energy insecurity (particularly fossil fuels) so it's clear we will need to intensify our cities more. As long as it happens carefully, I think Auckland could be a much better city with a population of 2 million or more than it is at the moment. Hopefully with that population we would have the money for a decent public transport system and other things that would make us a 'world class city'. The same goes for a lot of other cities throughout the country - as long as an increased population is carefully managed they will benefit from it.

I definitely think we need to open our doors to immigrants more, particularly those who are young and well educated. I couldn't care less where they come from, as in the end we're all descended from immigrants to this country at some point in the last 800 or so years.