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Old April 8th, 2015, 11:18 PM   #1201
Rebasepoiss
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In 2014 it was around 7,700.

2014 AADT map: http://www.mnt.ee/public/Lisa12_AKOL2014_pohitugi.pdf
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Old April 28th, 2015, 11:55 PM   #1202
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2015 sees the start of construction on another interchange on Tallinn bypass.

Location

Plan:
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Old April 29th, 2015, 04:28 PM   #1203
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Is Estonia planning, in the near future, to build a highway to Latvia, Lithuania and Poland?
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Old April 29th, 2015, 04:47 PM   #1204
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RHPLUS View Post
Is Estonia planning, in the near future, to build a highway to Latvia, Lithuania and Poland?
The Via Baltica: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_route_E67
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Old April 29th, 2015, 06:11 PM   #1205
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Quote:
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Is Estonia planning, in the near future, to build a highway to Latvia, Lithuania and Poland?
No. There is no money nor the traffic density to justify a motorway.

The AADT between Tallinn and Pärnu is between 6,000 and 7,000.
The AADT between Pärnu and the Latvian border is 3,000-4,000.

The priorities for building dual carriageways are:
- Tallinn bypass. It has an AADT of 8,000 - 13,000 of which 15-20% is lorries. This is being carried out step-by-step (or interchange by interchange, should I say). If everything goes well we will have around 20 km of dual carriageway by 2020 on Tallinn bypass. Not a quick pace but progress nonetheless. The wording in the plan is not quite clear on whether it will reach T1/E20 or not but hopefully it will.
- Tallinn-Tartu road, especially between Kose and Mäo. The AADT is around 7,700 but it's more of a political/regional development project. There is political will to finish the Kose-Mäo (40 km) section by the end of 2020 but there is no money for it. Estonia could easily borrow that money due to our very low level of debt but it probably won't happen because of politics. I imagine that we will have a PPP scheme spread out for 20 years instead (if the road gets built at all, of course)

Last edited by Rebasepoiss; April 29th, 2015 at 06:36 PM.
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Old April 29th, 2015, 06:25 PM   #1206
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What about a four-lane highway with only interchanges at busy intersections? That way you can eliminate head-on crashes, provide continuous passing options without having the cost of a motorway.

6,000 - 7,000 vehicles per day is a bit too low for a full-standard motorway, but in many parts of the world four-lane divided highways are built at such routes serving long-distance traffic.
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Old April 29th, 2015, 06:28 PM   #1207
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rebasepoiss View Post
There is no money nor the traffic density to justify a motorway.
Upgrading the Via Baltica is not a high priority for Estonia. Tallinn-Tartu is, for example, a higher priority. However, the Via Baltica is a higher priority for the EU than it is for Estonia, so EU funds are available to cover most of the cost. The remaining cost is still a lot of money for Estonia and still not a high priority.

As proficiency in English becomes more widespread and as living standards rise in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, traffic density will increase. There are concrete plans with funding to upgrade parts of the Via Baltica in Lithuania and Poland to 2x2 expressways, which will also result in some level (how much is debatable) of induced demand increase. Similarly, there are concrete plans in Latvia to upgrade a few bottlenecks along the Via Baltica, such as the Kekava bypass.

However, if you have in mind a 2x2 expressway all the way from Tallinn to Warsaw, I cannot imagine that before about 2040 at the earliest, if ever.
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Old April 29th, 2015, 07:13 PM   #1208
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisZwolle View Post
What about a four-lane highway with only interchanges at busy intersections? That way you can eliminate head-on crashes, provide continuous passing options without having the cost of a motorway.

6,000 - 7,000 vehicles per day is a bit too low for a full-standard motorway, but in many parts of the world four-lane divided highways are built at such routes serving long-distance traffic.
It currently seems that the Estonian Road Administration prefers a 2+1 solution with at-grade junctions where the AADT doesn't justify a grade-separated dual carriageway. The estimated cost for upgrading an existing 1x2 highway to a 2+1 highway is € 0.8-1.2 million per km. The cost for building a grade-separated dual carriageway is € 4-5 million.

Most of the older dual carriageways have at-grade junctions anyway (mostly with U-turns not left turns) but they are problematic in terms of safety so I'm not a fan of those as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mcarling View Post
Upgrading the Via Baltica is not a high priority for Estonia. Tallinn-Tartu is, for example, a higher priority. However, the Via Baltica is a higher priority for the EU than it is for Estonia, so EU funds are available to cover most of the cost. The remaining cost is still a lot of money for Estonia and still not a high priority.
Yeah, EU money is already being used to its full extent on other projects such as building Tallinn bypass. Tallinn-Ikla motorway would cost around €900 million (at €5 million per km). That's 5 years' worth of our state roads budget, including the EU support.

I doubt that even in the far future it will become viable unless we are struck by a strong influx of immigrants (which is unlikely).

Last edited by Rebasepoiss; April 29th, 2015 at 07:22 PM.
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Old April 29th, 2015, 08:19 PM   #1209
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I think that the construction of the Via Baltica highway is important for Estonia for greater economic integration with the EU. For Estonia, it should be the most important investment in future development. Poland plans to complete construction of its section to the border with Lithuania before y. 2022.
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Old April 29th, 2015, 09:07 PM   #1210
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Any reason why Latvia and Estonia couldn't agree to upgrade Riga-Tartu, and have the Via Baltica motorway go that way?

OK, it's about 100km (25%) more, but would meet Estonia's desires better.
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Old April 29th, 2015, 10:23 PM   #1211
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sotonsi View Post
Any reason why Latvia and Estonia couldn't agree to upgrade Riga-Tartu, and have the Via Baltica motorway go that way?

OK, it's about 100km (25%) more, but would meet Estonia's desires better.
All the Riga - Tallinn traffic would continue to use the direct route. The Riga - Tartu section would be underutilized -- unless Warsaw to St Petersburg via Tartu could become a popular route, but I think the freight would go by sea and the passengers by air.
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Old April 30th, 2015, 12:17 AM   #1212
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcarling View Post
All the Riga - Tallinn traffic would continue to use the direct route.
Sure, but this is a political thing to have a motorway to Tallinn, not justified by traffic. The through traffic was never going to add much anyway.

cf Rapid City, SD to Billings, MT in the states. The straight route, taken by the (very low) amount of through traffic (as it's a flat, straight route through empty prairie) is US212. Interstate 90, however, takes a lengthy diversion via Sheridan, WY as it serves a more useful traffic function than the direct route.
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The Riga - Tartu section would be underutilized
The whole thing is going to be underutilised!
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Old April 30th, 2015, 01:03 AM   #1213
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sotonsi View Post
cf Rapid City, SD to Billings, MT in the states. The straight route, taken by the (very low) amount of through traffic (as it's a flat, straight route through empty prairie) is US212. Interstate 90, however, takes a lengthy diversion via Sheridan, WY as it serves a more useful traffic function than the direct route.
I make Rapid City, SD to Billings, MT via I-90 to be 17% longer than via US212. I make Tallinn to Riga to be 40% longer via Tartu than the direct route.
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Old April 30th, 2015, 04:16 PM   #1214
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Just for the sake of it, I did a very simplified traffic calculation for the section of Via Baltica with the lowest AADT (near EE/LV border).

Traffic density grew 1.62 times between 2004 and 2014 and that's above the national average. If we use the same growth rate for the future we get:

2014 - 3,000
2024 - 5,600
2035 - 9,000
2045 - 14,600

Considering this, it would be reasonable to start construction in 2035-2040 if the traffic keeps growing at the same rate.

There has been an ongoing planning process since 2009 to set the route for upgrading Via Baltica to a "motorway" in Estonia between Tallinn and Pärnu. The section between Pärnu and the Latvian border will remain a 2x1 road in the foreseeable future.

Last edited by Rebasepoiss; April 30th, 2015 at 04:26 PM.
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Old April 30th, 2015, 09:43 PM   #1215
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This is a fallacy.
Mathematics is a very exact science, if you enter the correct input.
In this argument lacks basic parameter:
The very existence of the highway causes the development of the surrounding areas and causes multiplication of traffic.
This is due to many years of experience in America.
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Old May 1st, 2015, 05:31 AM   #1216
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I think existence of highway making traffic multiplication is only half-true
the highway would permit the traffic multiplication that is already "desired"
but it cannot bring it from nowhere

The obvious example would be an undeveloped area next to a large city, presence of highway would spur development since there is demand for land in the city
But far away from anything the highway brings essentially nothing (like say rural Texas or Montana)
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Old May 1st, 2015, 02:26 PM   #1217
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Well Finland got EU funding for Hamina-Russian border-motorway with AADT 4000-7000 but a very high percent of trucks with 20 Km queues nowadays in the old road, so I can't imagine why it couldn't finance a great deal of the Via Baltica to upgrade it to a full motorway. In Poland, they have been doing really great improvements. Bialystok is still a mess, but very many towns are by-passed by an expressway on the route. In Lithuania, it is a good-quality 1+1-road and could be easily upgraded. In Latvia, the by-passing of Riga remains of Soviet-time-roads... 2x1=shit.
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Old May 1st, 2015, 03:26 PM   #1218
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Quote:
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In Latvia, the by-passing of Riga remains of Soviet-time-roads...
Only the part over the hydro-dam is Soviet and some 7km of A4 aren't very good. The hydro-dam part should be resurfaced this year, if I'm not mistaken.

A1 through Baltezers doesn't have the space to be widened to 2+2. At best it could be 2+1.
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Old May 1st, 2015, 03:30 PM   #1219
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Białystok is actually not that bad for through traffic that follows DK8, it is better than it may look on a map. The northern bypass is mostly a controlled-access expressway. There are only 2 or 3 traffic lights to get from S8 onto DK8 or DK19 north of the city.
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Old May 1st, 2015, 04:07 PM   #1220
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A bit off-topic, but how are the villages signed from Via Baltica, for example, in Lithuania? No electricity (it was evening to night but not lights at all, only something burning in an old Kolhoz!), and just signs like "Bitaslikulai 3 km" or something like that So what are those villages like? Back when I was driving the Via with my father, he said it was not safe to divert the main road to have a look.
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