Downtown Populations

[Major Deegan]

If you draw a big enough circle you can have a population as big as you want.

Lower Manhattan 97,752 - this number includes Chinatown, Alphabet City, and parts of the Village. A more accurate description of "downtown New York would be everything south of Canal St. Which would put the population at about 34,000

Boston 80,903

Philadelphia 78,349 (estimates for 2005 put this around 88,000)

Chicago 72,843 this includes a huge area north and west of the loop. more accurately, the area around the loop has a population of 42,000

Midtown Manhattan 71,668

San Francisco 43,531

Detroit 36,871

Los Angeles 18,700(1999) 40,000(2009 projected) (1)

Miami 19,927(2000) 35,000 (2008 est)

Minneapolis 30,299(2000) 34,170(2008 est) (1)

Baltimore 30,067

Washington, D.C. 27,667

Atlanta 24,931

Dallas 22,469

Seattle 21,745

San Diego 17,894

Milwaukee 16,359

Saint Louis 11,000 (2008) (1)

Denver 9000 (2006) (1)
Denver Center City 83,000 (2006)* (1)

Pittsburgh 8,216

Austin 5,900(2006) (1)

_________________________
*Center City Includes CBD, LoDo, Central Platte Valley, Ballpark, Curtis Park, Five Points, Highland, Jefferson Park, La Alma, Lincoln

[mhays]

This is all apples to oranges. Very misleading.

For example, I counted census tracts for Minneapolis vs. Seattle once. Seattle was roughly double the population in the same land area.

For Minneapolis I used the freeway loop and river, except one tract went a bit south of the freeway at Loring Park. For Seattle it was roughly a square bounded by Mercer/Roy, Broadway, and the stadiums, with a cutout for Elliott Bay.

[mhays]

More:

In 2000, Downtown Minneapolis, defined as 1,746 acres, basically the freeway loop, had 20,298 residents.

In 2000, Downtown Seattle, defined as 1,756 acres, basically a square bounded by Mercer/Roy, Broadway, and Dearborn (minus part of Pioneer Square) with a cutout for Elliott Bay, had 44,857 residents.

Both have grown substantially since then. Seattle's figure was 51,622 in 2007.

These comparisons need definition to be useful.

I'd be curious what other cities would be with similar acreages, using full tracts to form basic square shapes or similar.

[JivecitySTL]

Downtown St. Louis: 10,000

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Downtown LA has had a huge jump in population since 2000. i think the number is closer to 45,000 now and growing fast. The Goal is 100,000 in the next few years.

[Major Deegan]

Originally Posted by mhays

More:

In 2000, Downtown Minneapolis, defined as 1,746 acres, basically the freeway loop, had 20,298 residents.

.

Here's what I was able to find for DT Minneapolis:

Census data from 2000 puts the total downtown Minneapolis population at 30,038. A survey by the Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy and the Fannie Mae Foundation predicts that those numbers will grow 19.7 percent by 2010.

Source: Minneapolis+Saint Paul Magazine
Date: January 2007
Link: http://www.mspmag.com/features/featu...ng/default.asp

[Major Deegan]

Who Lives Downtown

Eugenie L. Birch
The Brookings Institution
November 2005


An analysis of downtown population, household, and income trends in 44 selected cities from 1970 to 2000 finds that:

During the 1990s, downtown population grew by 10 percent, a marked resurgence following 20 years of overall decline. Forty percent of the sample cities began to see growth before the 1990s. While only New York's two downtown areas and Seattle, Los Angeles, and San Diego saw steady increases from 1970 to 2000, another 13 downtowns have experienced sustained growth since the 1980s.
From 1970 to 2000, the number of downtown households increased 8 percent—13 percent in the 1990s alone—and their composition shifted. Households grew faster than population in downtowns, reflecting the proliferation of smaller households of singles, unrelated individuals living together, and childless married couples.

Downtown homeownership rates more than doubled during the thirty-year period, reaching 22 percent by 2000. Overall the number of homeowners grew steadily each decade. By 2000, the share of homeowners across the sample downtowns swung from a high of 41 percent in Chicago to a low of just 1 percent in Cincinnati.

Downtowns are more racially and ethnically diverse than 20 years ago. From 1980 to 2000, the combined share of white and black residents living in the sample downtowns fell from 81 percent to 73 percent, while the share of Hispanic and Asian residents increased. The number of white residents living downtown rebounded in the 1990s, however, despite an overall loss of this group in cities as a whole.

In general, downtowns boast a higher percentage of both young adults and college-educated residents than the nation's cities and suburbs. In 2000, 25- to 34-year olds represented nearly a quarter of the downtown population—up from 13 percent in 1970. Forty-four percent of downtowners had a bachelors degree or higher.

Downtowns are home to some of the most and least affluent households of their cities and regions. Twenty of the sample downtowns—such as Midtown Manhattan, Dallas, and Miami—have at least one tract where the median income is higher than that of their MSA as a whole. Thirty-eight have at least one tract 50 percent or lower than their MSA median.

http://www.brookings.edu/reports/200...ent_birch.aspx

[Hia-leah JDM]

In the 2000 census Miami's downtown popuation was 20,141 and is now estimated around 35,000.

[Major Deegan]

Added new figures for Denver, LA, Minneapolis, Saint Louis, Austin and Miami. However, I'll need some kind of official or unofficial source for population estimates in Miami.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by Major Deegan

Here's what I was able to find for DT Minneapolis:



Source: Minneapolis+Saint Paul Magazine
Date: January 2007
Link: http://www.mspmag.com/features/featu...ng/default.asp

What area is that? Kinda useless unless we know that part. It's obviously a lot more than 1,750 acres.

The Minneapolis tracts I counted were 3501, 3502, 1044, 1046, 1047, 1052, 1054, 1056, and 5901.

That's the danger of fourth-party sources. Things get too confused and misunderstood along the way.

Particularly since definitions of "downtown" are purely subjective, and rarely comparable from one city to another.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by Major Deegan

Who Lives Downtown

Eugenie L. Birch
The Brookings Institution
November 2005

An analysis of downtown population, household, and income trends in 44 selected cities from 1970 to 2000 finds that:

http://www.brookings.edu/reports/200...ent_birch.aspx

This "study" was a lesson in how crappy a report can be even from a major institution like Brookings. They didn't attempt to define similar "downtown" areas for each city. They just contacted someone in each city who gave them whatever geographic area seemed reasonable. In some cases it was just the highrise district, or even just a part of that. In other cities they went for several miles, beyond anything anyone would realistically consider downtown.

Governments don't care what "Downtown" is. They organize districts for administrative purposes. Same goes for brokerages, downtown associations, and so on -- everyone uses a set of boundaries that helps them accomplish whatever their mission is, whether that's marketing, dividing the region into convenient statistical subareas that are otherwise meaningless, etc.

I did a study of parks in major US and Canadian downtowns in the early 90s. It was all about acres of park vs acres of downtown. I ran into this exact issue: every city had areas defined as "downtown" in some way, but within any given city, these areas varied tremendously depending on who I asked.

[30 Floors Up]

2005 (Several thousand more residents, including myself, have moved downtown since 2005 as buildings have been built and occupied. I would estimate that the Downtown Baltimore population is currently somewhere between 40,000 - 42,000.)

Mayor O’Malley Unveils Findings of
Baltimore Retail Market Assessment
Data compares Baltimore retail market with other cities
Will be used to develop city-wide Retail Marketing Strategy

BACKGROND
Under the Direction of Mayor Martin O’Malley, Downtown Partnership of Baltimore (DPOB), the Baltimore Development Corporation (BDC), Baltimore City Department of Planning (DOP), and the Charles Street Development Corporation formed a team to develop a retail strategy and marketing program for the City of Baltimore, focusing primarily on downtown and select neighborhood retail districts.

Before a meaningful retail strategy can be developed, however, the team needed a comprehensive understanding of the national retail marketplace and how Baltimore fits within it. The team hired McDearman Associates to conduct the assessment with input from BDC & DPOB and Planning.

To develop the Assessment, the Team wanted to understand: how location decisions are made by retailers; what the key factors are involved in the location process; how Baltimore and other places compare given these factors; current and future retail trends; and the recent experiences of other cities.

KEY FINDINGS
• There are 8 top-tier U.S. cities for retail (New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Boston, Washington, Philadelphia, and Portland, OR). Most cities in the top 25 metro areas nationally are struggling to maintain and attract national retail chains.

• What top retail cities have in common:
1) Large metro area population;
2) High city population density;
3) High daytime employment in 1-mile and 3-mile radius from center;
4) High average incomes in 1-mile radius;
5) High # of households earning $75,000 in 1-mile radius;
6) At least one large shopping district or mall downtown;
7) Good public transportation;
8) Good public safety downtown.

• Market Size – The Baltimore metro area ranks 18th in metro areas with a 2003 population of about 2.6 million. Among the top 25 U.S. metro areas, Baltimore ranks 9th for population density.

• Reasons for Optimism in Baltimore – Baltimore has a number of reasons to be optimistic about its position to attract and support a strong retail base. The City:
1) is arguably one of the nation’s top downtowns given its dense clustering of residents, businesses, visitors, institutions, sports facilities and events;
2) meets many factors that are driving national retail chain locations in top tier cities;
3) has high population density;
4) has a high number of high income earners in the city center;
5) is realizing a booming demand for high-end residential units;
6) has a high hotel occupancy rate with many new hotels in the pipeline; and
7) has the authenticity (architecture, culture, distinct neighborhoods, diverse populations) that is driving urban renewal in many major markets.

• While the 18th largest city overall, Baltimore ranks 8th among U.S. cities for population density within a 1-mile radius from the center core (36,980 residents).

• In terms of its downtown residential population, Baltimore resembles Boston, Minneapolis, and Denver.

• Baltimore ranks 16th for total employment with 102,812.

• National retailers are attracted to markets where residents earn high incomes. Overall, the Baltimore metro area ranks 24th nationally and 10th among the top 25 U.S. metro areas with a per capita income of $35,556 – making the region comparable to Philadelphia and Chicago.

• Within a 1-mile radius of downtown, Baltimore ranks 14th for median household income and 8th among the top 25 metro areas with 3,145 households earning $75,000+ annually – making Baltimore’s downtown comparable to Washington and Denver. 2

• 5-mile radius / Suburban demographics – outside the 1-mile radius of Downtown, Baltimore’s demographics are not as strong as the surrounding suburban towns and Washington, DC.

• In the 5-mile radius of Downtown, Baltimore ranks 2nd among its suburban counterparts for overall retail establishments, retail employment, and retail sales. The implication is that while Baltimore’s 5-mile radius does not have a lot of national retailers, it has a healthy concentration of local retailers serving the marketplace.

• Demographics make the area around the waterfront the most desirable to a national retailer. While East Baltimore, West Baltimore, and Mt. Vernon have the greatest population density within a 1-mile radius of the center core, they do not have the other demographic strengths that the Waterfront has from a national retailer’s perspective.

BOTTOM LINE
Downtown Baltimore has the demographics to attract high-end retail and take its place among the top U.S. center cities while the healthy supply of independent and regional retail businesses in other city areas can be enhanced to serve retail centers across Baltimore.

[StevenW]

Great info on Baltimore, wada!
Representing!

[mhays]

Originally Posted by 30 Floors Up

[B]

KEY FINDINGS
• There are 8 top-tier U.S. cities for retail (New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Boston, Washington, Philadelphia, and Portland, OR). Most cities in the top 25 metro areas nationally are struggling to maintain and attract national retail chains.

• What top retail cities have in common:
1) Large metro area population;
2) High city population density;
3) High daytime employment in 1-mile and 3-mile radius from center;
4) High average incomes in 1-mile radius;
5) High # of households earning $75,000 in 1-mile radius;
6) At least one large shopping district or mall downtown;
7) Good public transportation;
8) Good public safety downtown.

I was confused by why Seattle wasn't in the 8 "top tier cities for retail" so I looked it up. The summary has a typo and only listed 7. This source lists all 8 including Seattle: http://www.baltimoredevelopment.com/...nt-summary.pdf

[GarfieldPark]

Downtown Indianapolis population is approximately 22,000. Downtown work population is approximately 110,000. I agree it is difficult to compare the "downtowns" of different cities. The majority of the 22,000 people live in the northeast quadrant of the downtown - in an area that is about one square mile (Penn to College and Market north to 16th St). The northwest portion of downtown (mostly along the canal) and the cbd contain most of the rest of the population. Strong retail downtown (Nordstrom, Carson Pirie Scott, TJ Maxx and hundreds of additional stores and restaurants draw from downtown residents and visitors from throughout the region. Strong convention business also significantly helps keep business healthy at restaurants, bars, stores and other businesses.

[vgmLiquid]

Originally Posted by mhays

Particularly since definitions of "downtown" are purely subjective, and rarely comparable from one city to another.

Does it matter if they are comparable from one city to the next? I've been to a lot of cities around the country and world and downtown population doesn't necessarily reflect on whether it is a good city or downtown. St Louis is one of my favorite cities but it has a downtown population according to this of 11,000.

The geography between cities varies so much it can be difficult to make any fair comparison. Downtown Seattle sits right on an isthmus. Other cities like Minneapolis or St Louis sit along a river with few physical boundaries other than some scattered water, allowing them to sprawl a little more to cover a larger physical space (i'm talking about downtowns, even though this applies to the entire metros as well).

All I'm trying to say is a city like Minneapolis might actually have a larger geographic downtown compared to Seattle. That doesn't mean it is better or Seattle needs to move its boundaries to inflate numbers due to the perception Minneapolis is inflating its numbers. The point is it doesn't matter. How would anyone propose comparing their downtown to downtown Manhattan? We are really gonna have to stretch the boundaries on our downtowns to even come close...so for Minneapolis I'm thinking of stretching it all the way from St Paul to St Cloud...in reality it is silly.

Every city is unique, so I really wouldn't worry so much about population figures as much as I'd be worried about does our downtown properly support its population with amenities and does it have room for future growth? In Seattle's case that answer is yes.

[mhays]

Comparability matters if you're comparing downtowns. People see a list and they start comparing, based on unsuitable information.

Context matters even if you're trying to define one downtown. Any statistic means nothing if it's not in context.

That has little to do with saying something is good or bad, or better or worse. Accurate information is the foundation for any discussion. Bad information is like most TV news -- people know less afterward than when they started.

BTW, Downtown Seattle is not on an isthmus. Seattle is probably three miles wide at the narrowest, and my definition of Downtown is only one mile wide at that point.

Actually, I find the two downtown definitions I used to be pretty comparable. Both are the whole CBD, plus some dense housing, some "old town" stuff, some low-density that's getting to be or destined to be higher density, etc. The fact that they're both the same acreage is a coincidence.

[Westsidelife]

Previous estimates had Downtown LA's population at 60,000 by 2010. With the economy in shambles now, I wouldn't count on that.

I see Downtown LA's population somewhere around 200,000 by 2020. There's LOTS of room to build up.

[mhays]

For what area? Boundaries, or an acreage figure?

I vaguely recall a projection of going from 30,000 to 60,000 in this decade?

It's amazing how quickly 2020 will be here. Assuming today the figure for DTLA is 50,000 (for whatever area you're talking about), reaching 200,000 would require the biggest boom any NA downtown has seen in modern history by a longshot. Downtown Vancouver, for example, has averaged probably 2-3 thousand per year in growth. You're talking about 100,000 new units in 11 years based upon 1.5 people each, which is in the typical range. Factoring in the lead time to gear up for massive construction as well as move-in periods, you could call it 10,000 units per year, or 20,000 underway at a given time. Call it 100 projects averaging 200 units each at any given time.

Downtown Seattle, in that 1,756 acre area I've described, grew from 44,857 in 2000 to 51,622 in 2007. Based on construction and occupancy trends since then, I'd guess it'll be around 56,000-57,000 at the 2010 census. That would equate to growth averaging 1,200 per year. I believe the rate was similar in the late 1980s (when construction overtook demos) and the 1990s. Though LA's size can magnify the impacts of any trend, I wouldn't be surprised if it followed a similar pattern to Seattle, with boom periods and slow periods, but general gradual trend.

Much of that is supply and demand, credit conditions, construction costs, infrastructure, and so on. Another part is that land owners don't act the same. Some see an opportunity and develop. Others see a boom as a sign that their land will be worth even more if they wait. Others make half-hearted attempts to do something but fail for any number of reasons. A great many are absentee landlords who aren't paying attention, or hoard land because it makes them feel good, or think anyone with a development idea is an alien trying to steal their m&ms. Many properties are owned by groups such as family trusts in which no decision can be made without unanimous agreement, and therefore nothing gets done. All this means that a sizeable percentage of "developable" land won't be developed even in the best conditions.

[hudkina]

The number for Detroit is higher than what is normally considered "downtown", however Downtown Detroit is much smaller by definition than what most other cities consider "downtown".

Downtown Detroit is basically the financial district and doesn't include any residential neighborhoods. The population was 6,056 in 2000 and is closer to 7,000 today. Most of the population lives in a handful of riverfront towers as well as a few residential conversions of old commercial buildings. The total area is 1.30 sq. mi. or about half the size that mhays quoted for downtown Minneapolis and Seattle. In the broadest sense "Greater Downtown" is around 10 sq. mi. and has a population of 52,000. Most people live in apartment buildings and older victorian-era houses, though about 1/3 of the land is industrial in nature. You can find much of Detroit's cultural institutions in the Greater Downtown area, such as the DIA, the museums, Wayne State University, Orchestra Hall, etc. You'll also find such landmarks as Michigan Central Station, Old Tiger Stadium, and the Fisher Building.

So again, in the narrowest sense, Downtown Detroit has a population of 6,056 in an area of 1.30 sq. mi.
image hosted on flickr


In the broadest sense, Greater Downtown Detroit has a population of 51,772 in an area of 10.37 sq. mi.
image hosted on flickr


Here's a satellite view of Downtown Detroit:
image hosted on flickr


Here's a satellite view of Greater Downtown Detroit:
image hosted on flickr